Fantastic interview with Lubna Bouza on her show on Sky News Arabia, where everything is well-researched, with challenging questions, while still being really fun! Off-air, we are laughing all the time, to the point that the producers backstage almost throw chairs at us. You can watch Lubna's show on YouTube using the hashtag #بزنس_مع_لبنى.
- There has not been a single instance where we had inflation close to 10% without a recession following. The timing of the recession is almost impossible to predict; however, we think it is coming. Additionally, Europe is in trouble economically, politically, and financially, which adds to the issue.
Is this a big concern? No, it is not. Recessions are necessary for any economy. It is during recessions that frauds are uncovered (e.g., 2008 Madoff scandal), and weak or "zombie" companies are pushed out. Stronger companies become more resilient. Suppressing recessions is bad policy. Indeed, unemployment will rise, but it does not mean that everyone will lose their jobs. Lower-quartile employees are more likely to lose their jobs because companies will not let go of their best and most productive workers. So, although an economic recession or even a crisis hits hard, it should not cause worry or panic.
- The carry trade is the mother of all evils because it is leveraged, and we have seen what leverage did back in 2008. Tech stocks have been financed by this carry trade, and the pain is not over as long as Japan's inflation remains upward, pushing the BoJ to act, strengthening the Yen, and destroying the hopes of the "carry traders." Normally, interest rate cuts produce positive results for U.S. stock markets, except that currently, the carry trade is in control.
- The U.S. has to change course regarding its debt growing faster than its actual economic growth and support its economy with a massive fiscal deficit and civil servant hiring. The rest of the world is worried about the USD, hence the diversification away from it. Though some of this diversification is political, as seen in the case of the BRICS countries, which are buying massive amounts of gold to support their currencies. President Trump would not have threatened so publicly and vehemently if the threat to the USD was not present and real.
Thank you, Hazem Shaikh, for having me again.