Quais são os sinais de que uma empresa pode estar subvalorizada ou supervalorizada?

The P/E ratio compares a company’s stock price to its earnings per share (EPS) over the past twelve months. Trailing P/E uses historical results, while forward P/E is based on forecasted estimates. A high P/E may indicate speculation and bullish expectations for future growth, while a low P/E could suggest undervaluation compared to peers.

A very simple metric to know if a company is over or undervalued is the P/E ratio, which indicates how many times the stock is quoted in relation to earnings. From a value investing perspective, a ratio below the historical average (3 to 5 years) could be an indication that the stock is undervalued. On the contrary, if the P/E exceeds the historical average, it could be said that it would be overvalued. Under this analysis, it must be taken into account that companies that are in “defensive” sectors are characterized by having lower P/E compared to companies in so-called “growth” sectors, which tend to have higher profit rates.

Uma empresa subvalorizada - Importante para uma boa compra é que o P/E Ratio esteja abaixo de 20, segundo grandes investidores em valor

P/E ratios are reflective of current quarterly earnings divided by the price per share. The lower the P/E ratio, the more it is reflective of the stock price being more reasonable. For example, 10:1 is better than 100:1 (or where company has negative earnings). As a rule of thumb, P/E ratios between 10:1 thru 20:1 are more reasonably priced. However, in some cases, high P/Es may be good growth stocks based on future speculation for great improvement. When looking at stocks, it's good to take P/Es over multiple quarters to look at the average. For example, the company may have a bad quarter & the P/E may be an outlier of normal performance. P/E ratios are 1 of best measures of stock valuation, but extra factors must be considered

Signs that a company may be undervalued include consistently strong financial performance and growth potential that isn't reflected in its stock price. Conversely, signs of an overvalued company might include inflated stock prices relative to its earnings, or market expectations that are too optimistic compared to its financial health.

De forma geral, o índice preço/lucro costuma ser um ótimo índice de avaliação relativa dentre as opções de múltiplos amplamente utilizados. Ele mede qual o valor de uma companhia em relação a sua geração de lucro líquido. Situações de companias com altos índices P/L, costumam indicar casos cujo mercado avalia de forma bastante positiva a tendência de lucro líquido da companhia, estando mais "disposto" a pagar mais "caro" por essa geraçãod de resultado líquido. O inverso também é verdadeiro. Entretanto, é preciso sempre analisar conjuntamente com outras métricas de avaliação, visto que lucros líquidos distorcidos, seja qualquer motivo que for, geram análises distorcidas.

Para uma boa compra de uma boa empresa, é que o nível de endividamento seja nulo ou quase zero, caso não encontre, busque aquelas que tenha um histórico de queda do endividamento ao longo dos anos.

Debt-to-equity ratios are also an important consideration in addition to P/E ratios. Companies deep in DEBT with high INTEREST rates may be in danger of business failure. It's important to research where DEBT is due to heavy investments such as new products, locations, etc. Sometimes you have to SPEND $$$ to make $$$ & wise investments are actually beneficial. Or is the DEBT due to quarterly losses adding up over time. Is the company positioned to grow? Will High Debt + interest rate payments curtail quarterly earnings? The USA as a nation is an example of how DEBT can weigh on sound economic conditions -- as massive INTEREST payments make breaking out of DEBT cycle nearly impossible. Debt-to-equity ratio is a good measure of value.

Os níveis de endividamento de uma empresa são importantes de serem avaliados na intenção de investigar se a estrutura de capital da companhia está adequada. Altos níveis de endividamento podem indicar que a companhia possui uma estrutura de capital inadequada, por exemplo, com excessiva dependência de capital de terceiros, altos gastos com despesas financeiras, onerando seu resultado líquido. É essencial entender os níveis de endividamento vis a vis sua geração de fluxo de caixa EFETIVA (e não potencial) a fim de determinar se tal endividamento é honrável por parte da empres ou não. A pura e simples análise do múltiplo é apenas um indicativo.

One methodology for valuing companies is “discounted cash flow”, which requires projecting the company's profits and discounting them to present value. Two variables are fundamental (the profit rate and the discount rate). An optimistic earnings projection and/or a very low discount rate will result in overvaluation. On the contrary, a pessimistic projection of income and/or a very high discount rate will give an undervaluation. Due to the sensitivity of the valuation, it is advisable to calculate the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) rate, considering the opportunity cost and the cost of financing. If they are large companies, it is advisable to know the WACC for each business unit and thus achieve a more appropriate valuation.

Importante para uma compra de uma boa empresa é apresentar um fluxo de crescimento de lucro liquido, com aumento das margens ao longos dos últimos 10 anos pelo menos.

An analysis of stock CASH FLOW on both short and long term basis is important when evaluating a company's net worth & stock price value. Strong consistent cash flows point to company's products & services as being popular & reliable for future earnings potential. Weak & declining cash flows may indicate future trouble ahead. The # of years a company has been in business is a secondary measure for cash flows. Companies who have been around for many years & have a declining cash flow may have products/services that are now less popular. Brand new companies may be growing or have less consistent earnings as they become known better to the public. Cash flows are important measures for sales, operating expenses, investments, etc.

O demonstrativo de fluxo de caixa de uma companhia é ferramenta essencial na análise de uma empresa. Deve-se ter consciência que quando olhamos para maior parte dos índices de mercado, como EV/sales, EV/EBITDA ou preço/lucro, são índices baseados em resultados no regime de competência. Sendo assim, é importante que junto desses índices, seja observado a dinâmica de fluxo de caixa da companhia para evitar situações onde a companhia gere bons resultados no regime de competência, mas não consiga transformar tais resultados em caixa efetivamente. No fim, uma companhia vale aquilo que ela é capaz de gerar de fluxos de caixa no futuro trazidos a valor presente pelo custo de capital da companhia.

Price-to-Earnings Growth (PEG) Ratio: The PEG ratio considers a company’s growth rate alongside its P/E ratio. An elevated PEG ratio, especially above 1, may signal an overvalued stock.

A perspectiva de crescimento da empresa pode ser analisada vendo a evolução dos últimos 10 anos da empresa - pode tomar como base que o VPA de 10 anos atras corrigidos pela menor taxa de crescimento da empresa (ou utilize um múltiplo padrão de 5%aa), pode supor a projeção de qual será o VPA daqui a 10 anos.

Growth potential is more of a subjective thing in evaluating stock prices & company worth. Certainly, the existing track record of past growth can be evaluated over time. Growth is also compared with the specific sector of products/services the company is engaged in -- and how they compare within the industry as a whole. Is the company engaged in a business that may potentially fade away? Or are they in a popular hot market that is taking off? (like AI & how Nivida is growing in value). Growth potential must also be researched based on LEGAL needs & potential. For example, AI companies might be impacted by new restrictions, lawsuits, or extra costs for a new law. Growth predictions are difficult & due diligence is needed

Em relação às perspectivas de crescimento, é importante pontuar que o crescimento por si só não gera valor a empresa. Para que a perspectiva de crescimento de uma companhia de fato agregue valor é necessário que essa perspectiva de crescimento seja acompanhada de retornos acima do custo de capital da companhia. Sendo assim, é preciso estar atento a avaliações otimistas baseada somente em crescimento, focando mais no retorno que esse crescimento efetivamente gera.

Sempre importante que a empresa saiba se vai distribuir dividendos ou reinvestir, se o conselho acredita que pode usar o capital para investir na empresa, resultando em um crescimento maior do que o mercado oferece naquele momento, nao precisaria distribuir.

There are GROWTH & VALUE categories for stocks. It's good to have a balanced mix in your portfolio as an investor. Some investors ignore dividend yields for popular stocks that are rapidly increasing in price-per-share. They are more interested in the future stock price rather than receiving a DIVIDEND check each quarter. Other investors prefer a steady & reliable quarterly income from a popular well-established company. They prefer to hold stocks LONG-TERM and use them to generate personal quarterly income (with a lesser focus on what the future stock price will be) High yield dividend stocks can be a good stable investment over time -- esp. when quarterly earnings are automatically reinvested to buy more shares.

If a company is having an a high debit to equity ratio might indicate that a company is overvalued, On the other side if a company is on a low ratio could be an under valued. Overvalued will be relying on debit to Finace growth rather than sustainable revenue streams. Undervalued will be trying to have a solid cash flows and profitability.

A avaliação do valor de mercado deve levar em conta uma série de fatores. De forma geral, duas opções de avaliação são as mais utilizadas: 1. Avaliação relativa: múltiplos de mercado (EV/sales, EV/EBITDA, P/L...). São análises mais "simplistas" do campo teórico das finanças, mas úteis para prover agiliadade à análise; 2. Fluxo de caixa descontado: trata-se de um método de avaliação muito mais robusto que a avaliação relativa, porém, que exige uma complexidade muito maior para realizá-lo.

These are considerations to help with the findings and give insights: 1. Conducting a DCF analysis can help assess the intrinsic value of a company and determine if it is undervalued or overvalued. 2. Studying stock price trends, patterns, and momentum indicators can provide insights into whether a company is undervalued or overvalued in the short term.