Hurricane Rafael Is Expected to Develop, but Will the Storm Have an Impact on the U.S.?

A new tropical cyclone has formed in the Atlantic after brewing over the Caribbean for several days, but forecasters are unsure if and how it will impact portions of the United States.

The storm system was officially deemed Tropical Depression 18 on Monday, Nov. 4, after reaching maximum sustained wind speeds of 35 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters predict the storm will strengthen into a tropical storm later on Monday, and become a hurricane by Wednesday, Nov. 5.

The storm, which could be named Rafael, is expected to impact Jamaica first on Monday night, followed by the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, Nov. 5, and Cuba on Wednesday, Nov. 6.

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After reaching the Gulf of Mexico, however, forecasters find it difficult to predict where the storm system will go, or how it will impact the U.S.

“Given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur,” NHC forecasters said in a discussion update on Monday.

Those in the Florida Keys in particular “should closely monitor this system” as it continues on its current path, according to the NHC, which said “tropical storm watches could be required for portions of these areas.”

Heavy rainfall from the storm system is forecast to “spread north into Florida” and other portions of the southeast U.S. “mid to late week.”

Though the storm’s final track remains uncertain, forecasters predict that a number of factors may cause the storm to weaken as it approaches the U.S.

But AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told USA Today the system could still create “a significant wind and rain event” for any land it may strike.

“There are still going to be impacts even if it’s a tropical storm,” explained Pydynowski, who urged those along the Gulf Coast to remain alert.

Assuming this system becomes Rafael, there will be just four names — Sara, Tony, Valerie and William — left on the list for this hurricane season, which ends on Saturday, Nov. 30.

After all 21 names on the list have been assigned to a storm, forecasters will use the Greek alphabet to name storms until the season ends.

A second system out by the Azores developed into Tropical Storm Patty late on Sunday, Nov. 3, and is expected to drop between 1-3 inches of rain on portions of Portugal and western Spain between late Monday and Tuesday, according to the NHC. 

Additionally, forecasters predict an area of low pressure is currently sitting over the Atlantic near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola that has about a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next seven days.