Hurricane Rafael Strengthens into Category 3 Storm as It Approaches Cuba. Where Is It Heading Next?

Hurricane Rafael has strengthened into a Category 3 storm as it continues to approach Cuba, where it's expected to make landfall later on Wednesday, Nov. 6 — but forecasters say the path of the storm will become more unpredictable once it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

As the storm inched closer to Cuba, the National Hurricane Center shared in a Wednesday afternoon update that Rafael had intensified, becoming a Category 3 hurricane.

The storm is expected to bring a "life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds and flash flooding to portions of western Cuba," according to officials, who also warned that "there is larger-than-normal uncertainty regarding Rafael’s intensity later in the forecast period."

Rafael became a hurricane on Tuesday, Nov. 5, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, according to AccuWeather. Hours later, winds had increased to 100 mph.

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However, due to another “non-tropical storm” in the south central US, forecasters say there is a wide window as to where it's heading next.

"Once in the Gulf of Mexico, slight differences in Rafael's intensity and atmospheric steering winds could have a significant impact on its final track," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Bill Deger said.

If it makes landfall in the U.S. this weekend, the highest probability is along the Louisiana coast, according to the outlet.

But the hurricane could also track west across the Gulf — or fall apart completely.

"It is also possible Rafael is torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and dissipates in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall," Deger added.

While the storm is not expected to make landfall in Florida, rain could be an issue for the Florida Keys, as well as possible tornadoes. On Wednesday, the National Weather Service issued a tropical storm warning for the lower and middle Florida Keys, according to The News-Press.