Gabriele Martinelli

Morning Report Yesterday’s headlines: The energy complex continues to be in a downward moving direction as oil prices weakens further Strong storage levels as well as lower demand pulls gas, coal and carbon prices lower Nordic power prices is pushes lower by falling German power prices, disregarding drier weather forecasts Today’s expectations: Oil prices remains in a nervous state as weak economic data and lower demand offsets lower stockpiles in the US Prices on the carbon, coal and gas markets are now back to July levels and could slip further Nordic power market looks to rebound from the recent drops although weather forecasts retains a bearish pattern. #Passionforenergy

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Morning Report Yesterday’s headlines: Oil continues to rise as expectations of narrowing supply and growing demand weigh on the market Largely neutral day on the gas and carbon markets – German power also with a largely flat session Nordic power market responds bullishly to dry forecasts – especially on the short end of the curve Today’s expectations: Sideways trading continues on the gas market – but several concerns about to supply continue to weigh High-pressure weather set to dominate in the Nordic area next week – hydro balance deficit increases Rising Nordic power prices likely again as the dry weather forecasts are once again the main focus point. #Passionforenergy

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Morning Report Yesterday’s headlines: Oil falls for a second straight day as new US inventory data shows an increase – indicating falling demand Gas edges modestly down whereas carbon rebounds after failing to breach 60 EUR/t technical resistance Nordic power with marginal increases on a day with mixed signals from forecasts and related markets Today’s expectations: All eyes still on potential Israeli attack on Iran which could cause a reaction on both oil and gas markets Change to cooler and drier conditions expected in the Nordic area from around the end of the week Nordic power market opens modestly down but as yesterday, we do not expect any major fluctuations. #Passionforenergy

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LSEG: Norway outage pushes European gas prices to highest in 2024 (Reuters) - Norway's gas exports to Europe fell sharply on Monday as a shutdown of the offshore Sleipner hub halted operation at the Nyhamna onshore processing plant, pipeline operator Gassco said, lifting European prices to their highest level this year. "There was an incident at the Sleipner Riser platform on Sunday, where we were told they are shutting down," Alfred Hansen, head of pipeline system operations at Gassco, told Reuters. Norway in 2022 overtook Russia as Europe's biggest gas supplier, as Moscow's invasion of Ukraine severed decades-long energy ties. Sleipner Riser is a connection point for the Langeled North and Langeled South pipelines connecting the Nyhamna plant on Norway's west coast with the Easington terminal in Britain. Both terminals were shut on Monday, transparency data showed, with Norwegian gas supply nominations falling to 251 million cubic metres (mcm) per day, from 300 mcm/day nominated on Friday, according to Gassco data. Europe's benchmark gas price, the Dutch front-month contract TRNLTTFMc1, rose 8.1% to 37.40 euros/MWh by 0942 GMT, its highest level since mid-December. Gassco is working with Sleipner operator Equinor EQNR.OL to find an operational solution, but it was uncertain when the problems would be resolved, Hansen said. "This looks like it might be somewhat complicated." While Nyhamna plant operator Shell confirmed the issue was related to Sleipner, an Equinor spokesperson referred any questions on the issue to Gassco. Nyhamna is able to process up to 79.8 mcm per day, with he current shutdown resulting in a real loss of 56.7 mcm on Monday, according to Hansen. In Britain, the Easington terminal in northeast England, with a capacity of 72.50 mcm/day, was also shut, citing upstream restrictions, according to a separate message. Both plants will also be offline on Tuesday, an update on Gassco's website showed. #gas #norway #nbp #ttf

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Morning Report Yesterday’s headlines: Carbon price retreats again but reverses during the afternoon to close near the midweek’s price level Gas market closes higher on higher demand from Asia and fears of a strong hurricane season in US Nordic power prices falls on a strong hydro balance and expectations of a cooler and windier summer than normal Today’s expectations: The oil prices rises on forecasts of peak summer fuel consumption supply deficit and OPEC+ cuts The gas storages in EU remains healthy which limits the upside for gas prices, German power prices pursues Nordic power prices moves slightly higher on fears of more high pressured summer weather looming in the weather forecasts. #Passionforenergy

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Morning Report Yesterday’s headlines: Carbon prices hits a three week high on expected demand increases but retracts and closes marginally down The gas front month contract hits a three week low driven by healthy storage levels and lower demand Wetter weather forecasts and falling prices on the German power market drives Nordic power prices down Today’s expectations: Weak economic data from China and the eurozone and higher OPEC production weakens the Brent oil prices The CO2 market opens down but uncertainties could boost prices again, gas and in effect German power prices retreats Unsettled weather forecasts drives the hydro balance higher, giving bearish signals to the Nordic power market. #Passionforenergy

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Morning Report Yesterday’s headlines: Gas initially continues the uptrend but changes direction later in the day and ends up closing down Falling prices on German power Tuesday in response to the correction that drags gas down late in the day Nordic power little changed yesterday with the most traded system futures modestly up from Monday Today’s expectations: Falling German power prices as gas also continues the downtrend along with coal and carbon Nordic weather forecasts look somewhat milder than yesterday with precipitation amounts below normal Bearish day on the Nordic power market due to falling gas, German power and milder weather forecasts #Passionforenergy

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Morning Report Yesterday’s headlines: Sharp price climbs on gas due to upcoming maintenance work in Norway which will cut supply to Europe Big price jump on the carbon market amid rising demand on the auctions as well as bullish fuel markets Nordic power market closed due to public holiday both Friday and yesterday Today’s expectations: Calmer session on the gas market and the German power market following sharp uptrend in recent days Nordic weather forecasts indicate overall dry, calm and warm conditions during the forthcoming ten days Bullish day on the Nordic power market which has to adjust following the sharp climbs in Germany Monday. #Passionforenergy

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Insightful analysis by Julia Demirdag and Elise Wu from Montel on the German winter outlook. ICIS provided views on the risks for German security of supply if repeated occurrences of #Dunkelflaute (cold-weather driven power demand surge combined with low wind and solar generation) happen in the winter months. Power prices in such instances can reach €1,000/MWh, especially if the entire Central and Western European region is affected. On the supply side, such prices will be driven by peaking generators bidding with a significant risk premium on top of their marginal costs. Additionally, we expect demand response to play a role in price formation in these peak hours. While our ICIS Power Foresight December weather forecast for Germany is for average temperatures to be 0.5C warmer than seasonal normal, this does not preclude the re-occurrence of low-wind/low-temperature conditions causing price spikes. We observe that other neighbouring markets, such as France, Belgium, Netherlands and the GB, have also started factoring in increasing weather-related risk premium into the front-month contract in the last two weeks. A discussion question - what will be the impact (if any?) of the German grid reserve on price spikes? Will the presence of significant reserve capacity moderate the magnitude of potential price spikes, or will operators of reserve capacity actually drive the spikes by making use of their monopolistic position in these hours and bid at extremely high levels? Based on the recent Dunkelflaute episode in November, the presence of sizeable Strategic Reserve capacity did not prevent hourly day-ahead German prices from spiking to extreme levels. https://lnkd.in/eAcFZkGw #European #power #markets #electricity #security of #supply #renewables #dunkelflaute #ICIS #Montel

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Morning Report Yesterday’s headlines: Second day of falling gas prices as market focuses on improving flows from Norway, high storage levels Carbon continues down and now tests 60 EUR/t – German power edges down along with related markets Nordic power market reacts bearishly to falling German power and wet forecasts for the rest of this week Today’s expectations: Oil looks for foothold following downturn yesterday – focus on the Middle East and the Chinese economy Nordic 10-day weather outlook suggests precipitation amounts around 40 % above seasonal normal Nordic power market opens sideways amid unchanged forecasts – related markets open modestly down. #Passionforenergy

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What caused the electricity price spikes in South-eastern Europe in the summer of 2024, when prices reached €1,000/MWh? ICIS just published analysis, highlighting the outsized impact the heatwave and drought which affected the region, had on power markets. While the combination of heatwave and drought of such intensity was a we a one-in-15 years event, our view is that such events are likely to become frequent due to: - Global warming, which has meant that four of the five warmest Julys in the last fifteen years occurred since 2020; - The retirement of firm thermal capacity in the region (and the inability of renewables to compensate with an equivalent contribution to security of supply) is pointing to dangerously decreasing reserve margins. For our detailed analysis, please read our free report below. https://lnkd.in/e-mEF27W #electricty #Eastern #Europe #power #markets #price #spikes #Bulgaria #Greeece #Croatia #Hungary #Romania #Poland #Germany

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Morning Report Friday’s headlines: Retreating gas causes German power to edge down as well – but several supply concerns continue to loom Carbon falls along with gas as the benchmark contract drops below 70 EUR/t for the first time in a while Nordic power market falls amid bearish related markets, wet forecasts and a narrowing hydrological deficit Today’s expectations: Bullish signals for gas and German power as we enter another week of supply uncertainty and volatility Drier signals from the Nordic weather forecasts as dry and calm conditions are expected from mid-week Nordic power market opens with rising prices due to drier weather forecasts and climbing related markets #Passionforenergy

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📝 𝗕𝗹𝗼𝗴 | 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝘀 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗼𝗹 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 | 𝗔𝗿𝗴𝘂𝘀 𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮 Dave McCaskill and Cassidy Staggers look at the possible implications as Iran looks to divert methanol to domestic petrol demand. Read now: https://okt.to/r5ah6F This article is delivered by Argus’ methanol experts using data and insight from the Argus Methanol Outlook and Argus Methanol Analytics services. For more information visit: https://okt.to/lbC07c. #ArgusMedia #methanol #petrol

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Morning Report Yesterday’s headlines: Gas rises modestly as geopolitical concerns and technical signals outweigh strong current supply in Europe German power rises along with gas – carbon edges modestly down following several straight bullish days Another day of falling prices on the Nordic power market amid wet forecasts and improving hydro balance Today’s expectations: Bullish sentiment on fuel, carbon markets Friday – focus turns to Sunday’s parliamentary election in France No major changes to the Nordic weather outlook – low pressures to dominate during the next ten days Neutral / slightly bullish day on the Nordic power market as forecasts are unchanged, related markets climb. #Passionforenergy

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So excited to have Liz Arthur join me on the Navigating Carbon Podcast to discuss all things carbon intensity and validated data! Check it out and let me know your thoughts! #carbon #carbonintensity #navigatingcarbon #environmentalmarkets #emissions #podcast

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Have longs closed in the power market? 🔹 At the end of last week, the market fell back as expected after the resumption of flows following an unplanned Norwegian gas outage. 🔹Relatively low open interest growth suggests on friday that many participants closed positions, potentially seeing the bearish move as over. This is supported by the fact the candle closed up, though only mildly. 🔹It may instead be a trimming of positions on both sides of the market, given the low within-day movement. This would unwind positions that have been building in the German market since 17th May. 🔹Either, way the market has more than eclipsed the price rise related to the outage, and once again the German front year has failed to hold above to €100/MWh mark. 🔹Without news, I expect the market will continue on the bearish side, with both volume and open interest growth backing bearish weeks prior to this recent scare.

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