Stefan Konstantinov’s Post

Europe Braces for Record Cold Winter: How Plexos Helps Address Energy Market Uncertainty Article: https://lnkd.in/e9T8As6m As Europe potentially faces a colder-than-expected winter as the Ukraine war continues to disrupt energy supplies and drive prices higher. Gas storage levels, though currently 88% full, are under pressure as heating demand rises sharply, and geopolitical risks, including the potential cessation of Russian gas flows through Ukraine, exacerbate supply concerns. Natural gas prices have already surged by ~20% since November 2024, while low-wind conditions are increasing reliance on gas-fired generation, and adding to market volatility. How Plexos Provides the Solution: Plexos equips energy traders and grid operators to navigate these challenges with precision: 1. Demand Management: Anticipate high-demand periods by modeling the impact of colder temperatures on gas and electricity consumption. 2. Volatility Management: Simulate price fluctuations due to gas supply constraints and low renewable output, optimizing trading strategies to hedge risks. 3. Grid Stability Analysis: Evaluate the impacts of increased gas reliance and reduced wind generation on grid dynamics, ensuring stable operations. 4. Scenario Planning: Prepare for worst-case scenarios, such as prolonged outages or further supply disruptions, by simulating alternative resource allocations. As Europe grapples with heightened energy risks, Plexos offers the tools to turn uncertainty into actionable insights, empowering market participants to adapt and thrive in volatile conditions. Get in touch or learn more about our capabilities & product offering below - https://lnkd.in/ejB-qe-r #GB #Power #Electricity #Gas #Water #Hydro #EnergyExemplar #ZonalPricing #EnergyTransition #UKIndustrialStrategy #Plexos #PlexosInsight #PlexosPlaybook #PlexosEngine #PlexosSolutions #Priceforecast #GBMarketModel #EUMarketModel #PlexosSolutions #EnergySecurity #GasMarket #EnergyTrading #GridOptimization #MarketVolatility

Thank you to Dalibor Dobric and Montel for reporting on the ICIS analysis of this summer's power price spikes in South-eastern Europe. Given our finding of progressively tightening electricity markets reserve margins in the region, the question of price spikes is becoming very relevant over the winter months. We expect power systems in Europe to be tested in the coming months by weather events like cold snaps (especially combined with low solar/wind conditions) simultaneously increasing electricity demand and reducing supply over wide parts of the region. https://lnkd.in/ezFV9awC

This article ignores the system costs of the build-out of too much wind and solar with out respect of resource planning. These system costs must be added in to have a true picture of the costs like the transmission and backup power sources to provide power when weather does cooperate. US electricity prices are rising on average of 10% with locations much higher. What effectively gets created is a “duck” resource curve (sun and wind dependent) then a “canyon” curve where mass amounts of backup resource predominantly natural gas plants need added to the system to keep the system reliable. It’s like hitting a large pot hole in the road every day. Resiliency is another topic but just look to ERCOT a few years ago with a near crash of the system that caused about 180 deaths when the weather got cold. So to be balanced system costs should be looked at and the diversity of resources available, MN has baseload nuclear (3 units), coal and gas to help the grid move along. A balanced Integrated Resource Plan that uses all resources to provide affordability, reliability, and sustainability is soceity’s need. Alberta has the beginnings and needs the time to see it through.

Latest IESO Reliability Outlook "The demand forecast faces significant uncertainties in both the economic outlook and in terms of new loads on the system. Interest rate impacts can lag significantly and carry a risk to economic growth. Geopolitical events contribute to economic uncertainty and instability should they spread to other countries. Additionally, the large industrial loads seeking connection to the grid represent a significant risk to the forecast should those projects be delayed, accelerated, cancelled, or altered in a significant way. At the same time there are a number of firms indicating interest in locating in or expanding production in Ontario that have not been included in the forecast due to a current lack of information or commitment. Should those loads materialize, 2025 electricity demand could exceed 144 TWh and approach 149 TWh in 2026." #ontario #energy #electricity

The Franco-German power price gap is here to stay, amid surplus French production, weak demand and insufficient interconnections, analysts say “French spot and futures prices are clearly heading for a steady decline, whereas German markets will continue to move upwards, especially on futures prices,” Nicolas Goldberg, energy expert at Colombus Consulting says France will likely see surplus power production until 2027, while there are “many uncertainties” about the German power mix, where flexible production is set to become more costly The only way French prices could catch up to German levels is if French power demand increases sharply while German demand remains stable, if gas became extremely cheap or if carbon prices fall to EUR 0/t, which is “rather unlikely”, Clément Bouilloux, French market expert at EnAppSys says

Peak power demand to grow at 7 per cent CAGR in next five years: CEA In the current fiscal year, the country has so far registered a peak demand of 250 GW in May on the back of high temperatures. #PowerMarket https://lnkd.in/d39_KTZw

Catch up on the latest edition of our Weekly Market Rewind ⏪ UK & EU Gas Month-ahead gas prices are back up to 71.2p/th (from 64.4p/th), Summer24 and Winter24 have also risen to 67.4p/th (64.75p/th) and 79.9p/th (79.2p/th) respectively. In spite of good storage levels, there are concerns about the near faultless supplies from Norway coming to an end with a series of outages being considered or underway. There is also a cooler spell expected now towards the end of the week coming which is driving things up. Electricity Prices Power prices have followed suit, increasing to £63/MWh (£61.25/MWh) for the front month. Whilst Summer24 and Winter24 have also risen to £63.25/MWh (£60.5/MWh) and £75.5/MWh (73/MWh). A single unit at the Hartlepool Nuclear Power station came back online last week, but outages remain at Heysham and the other unit, representing over 2GW offline due to continued inspections. The latest forecast for their return is towards the end of this week. N2EX sat consistently in the mid- £60/MWh’s last week. Oil Oil has turned bullish hitting over $85/bbl towards the end of last week, a 4% WoW rise. Various attacks on Russian Energy infrastructure is one of the driving factors as it’s viewed the global supply is tightening. The market will be keeping an eye on the U.S Federal Reserve meeting finishing on Wednesday that will bring more clarity on the timing of interest rate cuts. Regulatory The REMA consultation currently out is recommending the division of the GB power system into a number of regions to allow more localised wholesale pricing. Such a system will allow more efficient allocation of supply and demand and hopefully reduce the requirement for transportation infrastructure by placing supply closer to where demand is. The expectation is that wholesale power prices would increase in the south and the south west and decrease in Scotland and the north. The consultation is expected to run for a number of months. To get the full low-down of what’s happening in the markets, make sure to jump onto our platform at app.ppaya.co.uk and sign-up for daily, weekly & monthly market reports 👉 #Energy #Renewables #PPAYA

Catch up on the latest edition of our Weekly Market Rewind ⏪ UK & EU Gas Energy prices over the past week have fallen away somewhat. MA prices (now May24) have fallen to 66.1p/th (72.4p/th), Winter24 and Summer25 have fallen too to 81.75p/th (84p/th) and 75.1p/th (77p/th). The predominant driving factors have been increasing temperatures and higher forecasted wind speeds. Temperatures are expected to reach up to 5 degrees above seasonal normal. Electricity Prices Power prices have mirrored that fall, reducing to £56.75/MWh (£65/MWh) for May24. W24 and S25 are down to £75.5/MWh (£78.75/MWh) and £64.5/MWh (66/MWh), respectively. Nuclear outages have almost ended across the UK fleet, with Hartlepool coming back online. Only one unit at Heysham remains offline. Construction continues at Dogger Bank A and Moray West with transition pieces almost finished at the former and mono-piling at the latter. N2EX has remained steady clearing largely between £60-£70/MWh, with no big drops in comparison to the week prior. CfD AR6 opened for bidding last week, and this is anticipated to be the most hotly contested auction to date. Oil Oil has continued to climb reaching $88.5/bbl this morning. Prices have rebounded due to positive news from the manufacturing output of both the US and China. Net Zero The Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) also announced that the UK was halfway to Net-Zero based on 1990 baseline, mainly through slashing of emissions from power generation and land use. Other news The new Ofgem price cap went live from 1st April. This will reduce the energy price cap from £1,928 to £1,690 per year, a reduction of around 12%. To get the full low-down of what’s happening in the markets, make sure to jump onto our platform at app.ppaya.co.uk and sign-up for daily, weekly & monthly market reports 👉 #Energy #Renewables #PPAYA

Phase out...for how long? Ask Germany...It takes time and $$ to build replacement energy infrastructure...If you covered every open space in the UK and it's coastline with wind and solar which is fine by me, they are gradually becoming more energy dense.... but do the math..it won't be enough based on current and future energy demands in the UK. Options as part of an "all hands on deck" approach could include: 180 times more power-dense nuclear , move energy intense industry offshore (it becomes somebody else's problem), Gasified coal would help but it is basically a retooling of existing shuttered coal plants and the political and economic cost may be too high. Breakthroughs in energy efficiency will help. Increased decarbonization of fossil fuel power generation is another. Where is Dr Emmet Brown's Fusion Generator from Back to the Future when you need it?

Fantastic achievement in just 35 years. Windfarms mainly Offshore are the main contributer over the last 25 years. UK is well on the road to 100% renewables and self-sufficiency. Problem is we don’t have influence worldwide so without China, India, USA, etc., we will not eliminate fossil fuels and GHG emmissions. GHG already in the atmosphere and may take a century to reduce sufficiently to eliminate the their effect. The climate has been damaged hopefully not permanently and may take a millennium to to fully recover.