Q: How much first loss is needed by a fund targeting agri-SMEs in Africa?
A: Nobody really knows.
What happens in practice?
Fund managers raise as much first loss as they can.
In a NextBillion article from 2021, Brian Milder from Aceli Africa notes that this is “a reasonable approach in the absence of more objective standards defining appropriate levels of subsidy based on the sector, geography and impact they are targeting”.
This approach benefits fund managers “which are best at fundraising, as opposed to which can deliver impact most efficiently in a competitive marketplace” and in the end, there is “minimal accountability when it comes to capital additionality or impact in the actual design or implementation of most blended finance vehicles”.
How does Aceli address these challenges (and what can we learn)?
Aceli collected the data they needed on loan economics, explicitly linked impact to transactions, and took a marketplace approach.
1) Aceli and Dalberg collected data on and analyzed “over 9,000 agri-SME loans (totaling $3.7bn) from 31 commercial and impact lenders”.
2) Aceli has strict impact criteria that are applied on a loan by loan basis which provides accountability.
3) Aceli takes a market based approach based on the assumption that it “is necessary to support the full range of lenders that currently serve different parts of the agri-SME economy”.
FASA does #3 but needs to work on #1 and #2.
To start, we need to understand the economics of a commercial fund, a sub-commercial fund without first loss, and the impact of first loss.
I recently learned a new term, Fermi calculations (h/t Peter Baker), which are approximate calculations using rough numbers.
In that spirit I have tried to come up with simple examples as a thought exercise until we are able to collect the actual data.
Rather than trying to be really detailed or super accurate, I’ve intentionally kept it general to highlight some broad goals:
◾ Identify data points needed to understand fund economics
◾ Compare blended finance vehicles to commercial vehicles
◾ Understand limitation of first loss to offset high OPEX costs
Happy to update my assumptions based on any feedback and/or share my spreadsheet to play around with yourself.
I think the next step will be to create examples for different types of funds.
#FASA #FASAFund
#agrifinance #agfinance #agriSME #agriSMEs
#blendedfinance #agriculture #impinv
#CSAF #GDPRD #ASLC #SubsidyForData #EvidenceUseItOrProduceIt
Yasser Toor | Joshua Bicknell | Mauricio Benitez