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#OTA #BKNG #Hotel #Growth #Value #EXPE #ABNB
Booking recently announced its 2024 Q2 earnings, with shares dropping 9.2% just before the major Japan market crash. Although its market cap remains above $100 billion ($111.5 billion), it hit its lowest point since November 2023. What's changed in the past six months? Haize Capital believes the primary challenge is a slowdown in room night growth, shifting Booking from a growth stock to a value stock—a trend that's hard to reverse.
Room nights is a key indicator of Booking's growth. Projections for 2024 showed expected growth rates of 4%-6% for Q1, Q2, and 3%-5% for Q3. Actual growth for Q1 and Q2 was 8.5% and 7.1%, respectively. Despite beating expectations, the growth rates are now less impressive compared to the double-digit significant growth seen in the past. With Q3 projections lower than Q2, the actual growth could below 7.1%, it's not surprising that market confidence is waning.
From a practical growth perspective, there's little to suggest Booking can maintain its growth stock status:
1. Geographically: In Q2, Booking's room night growth in Europe and the U.S. was in the single digits, Asia slightly exceeded 10%, and other regions grew by high single digits. Asia's double-digit growth is what pulled the average up to 7.1%. If Asia's post-pandemic travel boom ends sooner than expected and seasonal spending patterns return quickly, Booking has little chance to see double-digit average growth.
2. Product-wise: Booking's two other major product lines, car rentals and flights, grew by 10% and 28% in Q2, with sales volumes of 22 million rental days and 11 million tickets, respectively. However, these figures don't indicate a strong second growth curve; they serve more as tools for cross-selling or attracting new customers. As for local experiences like attractions, tickets, dining, and activities, these haven't been highlighted in earnings calls or reports as high-growth or high-revenue products that could reassure shareholders.
If we don't consider Booking as a growth stock, it still stands out as a solid investment from a value stock perspective, reflecting the company's efforts to enhance profitability. While Q2 gross bookings and revenue grew only 6% and 7% YoY, EPS increased by 11%, thanks to cost reductions, efficiency improvements, and stock buybacks. Even with room night growth at just 5%, the quarterly increase of 13.8 million room nights is a strong negotiating asset in any business deal.
Moreover, even if the next leader in travel growth is about to rise, it's not likely to be Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) or Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB). Their reliance on U.S. customers, whose spending power is increasingly constrained by record-high credit card debt, limits their ability to expand the consumer bubble.