Is the climate changing faster than expected?
In a new briefing note, Professor Andrew Pitman, AO, FAA, Professor Nerilie Abram, Professor Julie Arblaster, Professor Jason Evans, Professor Neil Holbrook, Dr Martin Jucker, Dr Andrew King, Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Professor Steven Sherwood, and Dr Anna Ukkola explore whether global temperatures are rising beyond expectations and discuss potential explanations for these increases.
While limiting warming to 1.5°C is no longer realistically achievable – the remaining carbon budget for this target will be exhausted within just a few years – stabilising the climate at well below 2°C of global warming remains possible. Achieving this will require significant, sustained year-on-year cuts in emissions, culminating in net zero emissions within the constraints of an increasingly limited carbon budget.
Despite the challenges, there is both hope and an urgent need for action. Global carbon dioxide emissions remain high, with 2023 likely seeing another increase from fossil fuel sources. However, the world may be approaching peak emissions, and there is optimism that they could soon begin to decline.
How we act on this knowledge now will shape our future.
Key takeaways include:
⏺️ Global surface temperatures are close to longstanding predictions despite the unusually high global temperatures of 2023/2024.
⏺️ A more reliable indicator of lasting change is the rate at which energy accumulates in the global system, which has accelerated over the last two decades.
⏺️ There are aspects of the climate system where changes seem to be accelerating, including short-duration rainfall intensification, sea ice loss around Antarctica and increasing heatwaves on land and in our oceans.
⏺️ The impacts of global warming are increasing; to reduce them, we require a deep and rapid cut in greenhouse gas emissions.
See the briefing note here: https://lnkd.in/gKR9G4mX
Download the full PDF here: https://lnkd.in/gwYRNH_Q
A big thank you to our Engagement and Impact team – Angela Kaplish, Alice Wilson, Georgina Harmer, and Victoria Tichá – for putting this together.
The Centre's final briefing note is on its way – stay tuned!