22 Increasingly Bold Predictions for the 2024-25 NBA Season

At its onset, the NBA’s 2024-25 season is, even more than usual, a beacon of mystery, chock-full of big-picture trends moving in an undetermined direction. Are we entrenched in an age of parity? Or does one team still stand head and shoulders above the rest? Has the offensive evolution peaked? Or will the 3-point shot’s mushroom cloud continue to spread? Are we at the beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning?

In and around that vast unknown, countless predictions can be made. In my third annual go at making some of my own, here are 22 increasingly bold attempts to foresee what’s conceivable in a league that’s never felt so elusive. And since we’re talking about professional sports, that also means the NBA has, quite possibly, never been so much fun.

1. The Boston Celtics will repeat as NBA champs.

Does this count as bold? Sort of. No team has successfully defended its title since 2018, when the NBA was neck-deep in a superteam arms race that culminated with Kevin Durant joining a champion that had just won 73 regular-season games. That era might be over. For a variety of reasons, windows that used to be wide open are now just barely ajar.

Since the Warriors went back-to-back seven years ago, every team that won it all subsequently lost a key player (or two) before their Champagne dried. In 2019, Kawhi Leonard left the Raptors. In 2020, Rajon Rondo, Danny Green, and Dwight Howard left the Lakers. In 2021, P.J. Tucker left the Bucks. In 2022, Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. left the Warriors. In 2023, Bruce Brown Jr. left the Nuggets.

But this year, coming off a season in which the Celtics lost 21 total games, everyone in Joe Mazzulla’s playoff rotation is back for another bite at the apple. They have as much continuity, chemistry, depth, confidence, pride, urgency, versatility, athleticism, shooting, and refined two-way talent as any team in recent memory. Their defense is fierce, disciplined, and instinctual, neatly completed by a 3-point-spraying five-out offense that’s game plan proof when everyone is healthy. While several championship hopefuls (New York, Philadelphia, Oklahoma City, Dallas, and Minnesota, to name a few) made meaningful changes over the summer to better match up with the reigning champs, none built a strong enough case to make me believe that they can stop the Celtics from earning a 19th banner in June.

The biggest reason why, for some, doubles as a limitation: Jayson Tatum.

After he led Boston in points, rebounds, and assists through a historic title run as one of the NBA’s most popular players, Tatum was still a magnet for remarkable criticism. Instead of being celebrated for scaling a wall so few ever have or will (as the best player on a champion), Tatum was defined this summer by Steve Kerr’s decision to bench him at the Olympics, whispers about a broken jump shot (he made 38.9 percent of his 3s in the preseason), and more skepticism about his standing among the best of the best. Even though he won a ring as the best player on his team, there are cynics who still wonder whether the Celtics can do it again without having the best player in every series.

The noise is due in part to how competent Brad Stevens and Mazzulla are at their jobs, surrounding him with an ideal, overqualified supporting cast in a system that affords more space than any other primary ball handler has ever had. But it’s all a two-way street. Boston’s roster construction and nightly game plans are equally reliant (if not more so) on the qualities that make Tatum shine. He was inefficient in the Finals, but the degree to which that tilts how he’s covered and perceived is strange considering Boston’s playoff offense was a team-best 14.7 points per 100 possessions better with Tatum on the court.

He will go down as an all-time great and gets better every year, a consistent marvel who excels on both ends and has few holes to pick at. He makes his teammates better. He makes life easier for his coaches. He’s as reliable and levelheaded as they come. And his impact on winning, if not fully realized by the masses after Boston’s championship run, will stand out a year from now.

Bonus Celtics-related predictions: Either Tatum or Jaylen Brown will make his first All-Defensive team, Tatum will win Finals MVP, and Mazzulla will win Coach of the Year.

2. The Nets will finish with the worst record, win the lottery, and draft Cooper Flagg.

This honestly feels like it’s in everyone’s best interest (including my own, as someone who lives across the street from Barclays Center). Whether it’s intentional or not, this upcoming Nets season will give dumpster fires an aromatic charm. Everyone on the roster (even Ben Simmons … until his next injury) is a trade candidate; on a local level, none of the players are more popular than Ellie the Elephant. Mr. Whammy is the one being featured in a real advertisement campaign! It’s gloomy stuff.

Free Nic Claxton, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Cam Johnson. Let Cam Thomas take 50 shots per game. Pray for Jordi Fernández. The competition to lose will be cutthroat, but Brooklyn will do whatever it takes to lick the NBA’s floor. It’s a season of rational debasement, all for Flagg, a trajectory-altering prospect who can immediately give all 14 of the franchise’s fans who have yet to abandon ship at least one reason to get up every morning.

No team is crying out for an anchor like the Nets, who are loose, floating around the East River. But they aren’t aimless. Right now, Flagg is their lighthouse. It’d be nice, for the sake of NBA intrigue, if they found him.

3. Victor Wembanyama will be the unanimous Defensive Player of the Year.

This has never happened before. Neither has Wembanyama. If the over/under on career Defensive Player of the Year awards for him was 4.5—Rudy Gobert, Ben Wallace, and Dikembe Mutombo are tied for the most with four apiece—I would seriously consider taking the over. He’s the most intimidating and provocative defender alive, someone I thought would win as a rookie (and who eventually received my actual vote before finishing as Gobert’s runner-up). Wemby protects the paint, blocks jumpers, and single-handedly turns fast-break chances into half-court slogs. His impact is unparalleled.

(Related: I hope Bam Adebayo wins one during his prime. It’s nearly a cliché at this point, but no individual’s impact on one side of the ball is more casually taken for granted than everything Bam does on defense.)

Bonus Spurs-related predictions: Devin Vassell will win Most Improved Player, and San Antonio will win more games than the Lakers.

4. Luka Doncic will lead the league in points and assists.

It’s been more than 50 years since Nate Archibald averaged 34 points and 11.4 assists (on his way to a third-place MVP finish) for a bad Kansas City–Omaha Kings team (that was coached by Bob Cousy). It was the last time anyone led the league in both of those categories. James Harden and Russell Westbrook both came oh so close a few times. Neither got there, but Doncic was born to do it.

Last season, at all of 25 years old, he notched his very first scoring title while averaging 9.8 assists, which trailed only Tyrese Haliburton’s league-leading 10.9 and Trae Young’s 10.8 per game. Now, he’ll have Klay Thompson flying off screens and a full season of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II as lob-catching pick-and-roll partners, so it’s very possible that Doncic will make history. Last year, after the All-Star break, his 10.3 assists ranked first on a team that finally sought transition opportunities off stops and made baskets.

5. The Suns will have the league’s most efficient offense (for real this time).

Last year, I made the exact same prediction, and Phoenix finished 10th in offensive rating (with the 15th most efficient offense in history). This year—despite tough competition from the Celtics, Pacers, Thunder, Bucks, Nuggets, and Mavs—it will come true!

After some painful trial and error, the Suns realized that taking the ball out of Devin Booker’s, Kevin Durant’s, and Bradley Beal’s hands is like serving hot soup without a spoon, so they signed Tyus Jones (who averaged the second-most assists in the NBA after the All-Star break last year) and Monte Morris, a pair of historically dependable game managers who will do wonders for a team that couldn’t stop making stupid mistakes last season. (Phoenix finished 25th in turnover rate in 2024.)

They also replaced Frank Vogel with Mike Budenholzer, a coach who respects defensive principles but also understands how pointless they are if implemented on a team that eschews 3s and shots at the rim for long 2s. Phoenix was deadly from the midrange last year (Durant, Booker, and Beal will do that), but math is undefeated. Per game, the Suns attempted 3.3 fewer 3s than their opponents last season. Meanwhile, the league-leading Pacers and Celtics jacked up 5.9 and 5.7 more, respectively.

Leading the league in pull-up 2s is not a recipe for success. Bud knows this. During his five seasons with the Hawks, only four teams launched more 3s than his. His grip tightened in Milwaukee, where, over another five years, only two teams took more 3s than the Bucks. None of this means that the Suns should or will completely abandon an essential sweet spot for their top two scorers, but shifting a few of those looks behind the arc, whether off the dribble or on kick outs to the perimeter, will go a long way. (During the preseason, their 3-point rate was 47.5 percent: seventh highest in the league and way up from last year’s preseason tally, 36.8.)

A return to form for Beal—who’s been injured on and off ever since he went two straight seasons (2017-18, 2018-19) without missing a single game—would obviously help. He appeared in only 53 games last year and was an afterthought in Phoenix’s forgettable playoff “run.” But so long as Booker and KD stay healthy and reorient how they attack, Beal’s presence almost feels more like a cherry on top than a critical piece of the puzzle. Phoenix has enough shooting and play creation to wreak perpetual havoc. The Suns are built to mow defenses down, and if they’re no longer their own worst enemy, they’ll actually do it.

6. The Bucks will boast the most dominant starting five.

With the Celtics down Kristaps Porzingis for a few months, the Nuggets without Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and pretty much every other serious candidate suffering through its own set of questions or transformations, Milwaukee’s starting lineup is lurking in the shadows as an absolute juggernaut.

Last season, 27 five-man units played at least 250 minutes. Among them, the Bucks ranked first and second in net rating. Now let’s zoom in just a bit and take a look at four-man units. There were 82 of them that logged 500 or more minutes last year. The one with the highest net rating? Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, and Khris Middleton. Milwaukee outscored opponents by a whopping 16.6 points per 100 possessions in the 677 minutes that quartet played together. Injuries to Middleton and Antetokounmpo, combined with the general chaos that followed Jon Horst’s catastrophic decision to replace Budenholzer with Adrian Griffin, ultimately did the Bucks in last season. But this data sample should inspire more optimism than Milwaukee is getting.

Assuming that Gary Trent Jr. is plugged in as the new starting 2-guard, Lillard and Antetokounmpo click running more pick-and-roll, and Middleton’s offseason ankle surgeries don’t derail the three-time All-Star’s contract year, the Bucks will be a lawn mower when their starters are on the floor.

7. The Bulls will finish dead last in defensive rating.

We’re coming up on two years since I wrote this piece, yet the Bulls are somehow still a wretched excuse for a basketball organization. Not quite as bad as they were—last year I (mistakenly, sincerely) predicted that they would finish with a top-four record in the Eastern Conference—but rancid nonetheless. These days, if you squint hard enough to make your eyeballs feel like they’re a few hundred feet underwater, you might be able to identify what’s commonly referred to as “a plan.”

Theoretically, absent all other bits of relevant information and context that are necessary to grasp why this move may soon look regrettable on multiple levels, trading 30-year-old Alex Caruso for 21-year-old Josh Giddey is something an organization dead set on starting over would do. Right on. Not re-signing DeMar DeRozan made sense, even if they had to rope in the Spurs to complete a three-team sign-and-trade and then watch the Kings give a future first-round pick swap to San Antonio so that the deal could go through—deeply embarrassing stuff.

In a vacuum those moves are, at best, acceptable. In reality, with Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic still on the payroll, the perennially unavailable Patrick Williams still an injury risk, and Lonzo Ball still hoping his body can make it through a month of NBA basketball without falling apart, the Bulls are, still, incoherent: not as bad as they should want to be or good enough to compete for a play-in spot. Instead, it’s a big bowl of irrelevance, with suspect defensive personnel (no Caruso is going to really hurt), little rim protection, and no propensity for meaningful change.

8. Zach LaVine will not be traded.

Hence: A LaVine trade is as unlikely as it is overdue. He isn’t even halfway through a five-year, $215 million contract, and he has a game that’s too single-minded to reach a place where its explosiveness impacts winning or makes teammates better. He also turns 30 in March and has never come close to making an All-NBA team. This is a negative contract, meaning that the Bulls will have to attach draft picks to it if they want someone to take it off their hands. And that’s where the rubber meets the road, because Chicago—a team that’s seemingly, finally accepted the need to rebuild—isn’t in any position to surrender its ability to tank in the years ahead.

9. Corey Kispert will be the first Wizard saved traded.

LaVine is more talented than Kispert, but there’s no general manager in the league who’d prefer the former over the latter. If you love the NBA but have never seen Kispert play, this is a judgment-free corner. It’s generally wise to avoid basketball games that have no purpose (and the Wizards have played a lot of them in Kispert’s three seasons). But everyone who has seen Kispert play knows that he can do a whole bunch of helpful stuff beyond knocking down spot-up 3s. He can fly off screens and shoot on the move, make timely cuts from the weak side, and effectively drive a closeout.

Kispert finished last season with the seventh-highest 2-point field goal percentage in the league and nearly doubled his assist rate from the previous year. He turns 26 in March—so, not young for someone entering their fourth season—but has a plug-and-play skill set that would be better appreciated on a more competitive and serious team.

I just started typing out potential suitors but decided to stop after I reached double digits. Let’s just say that since he’s extension eligible, in the last year of his rookie deal, and making $5.7 million, the Wizards will field more calls for Kispert than they will for Malcolm Brogdon, Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole (lol), or Jonas Valanciunas.

10. The Magic will finish with a top-three seed.

Defense, continuity, internal growth (including and especially what could be a transformational leap by Paolo Banchero), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s winning intangibles and 3-point shot equal a major season for the Magic. Here’s what I wrote about them in July.

11. Toronto will make the playoffs.

It’s hard to look past the front office’s self-impeding, borderline aimless strategy and how dreadful the Raptors looked tanking games down the stretch last season (Toronto’s net rating after the All-Star break was an NBA-worst minus-11.4), but if you can, there is actually intriguing, productive, and untapped talent on the Raptors’ roster right now. There’s encouraging stuff here!

Scottie Barnes just cracked his first All-Star team in his breakout season after the organization finally handed him the keys. At 22 years old, Barnes made real strides as a pick-and-roll playmaker and sank 38.5 percent of his spot-up 3s—a major development for a franchise desperate to land some outside shooting; his improvement can potentially alter Toronto’s entire trajectory, especially if RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley make leaps of their own with the ball in their hands.

Barrett led Toronto in usage rate after he and Quickley came over in the OG Anunoby trade. His assist rate and true shooting percentage rose far above previous career highs, too. Quickley made 39.5 percent of his 3s on more than seven attempts per game while handling the responsibilities that are asked of a quality starting point guard.

It’s a bit much to call these three “cornerstone” talents, but for now they complement one another, are solid to incredible on defense, and have room to improve. Around them, for the time being, are a few proven commodities like Jakob Poeltl, Kelly Olynyk, and Bruce Brown Jr. Davion Mitchell is a spunky backup floor general who, when sharing the court with Quickley, will make Toronto ferocious at the point of attack. It’d be a boon if Gradey Dick became a consistent marksman in his sophomore season. Dick showed glimpses as a rookie, recovering from a slow start to make nearly half his 3s in February; the decision to let Trent walk for nothing was a show of confidence in Dick’s ability to step into Toronto’s starting lineup.

Altogether, this team is chum for the Eastern Conference’s real contenders. But there’s enough talent and upside for them to make the play-in tournament, and then … anything can happen! It’s hard to imagine the Celtics, Bucks, Sixers, Knicks, Cavaliers, Magic, Pacers, or Heat falling short, but all it takes is one.

12. Anthony Edwards will win MVP.

All signs point to this being Luka’s year. Or it’ll be an opportunity to celebrate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s expertly nimble tumbling routine. Or Nikola Jokic will say, “Hello! I’m still great!” and log 65 triple-doubles. Or Antetokounmpo will score the most points while making 70 percent of his shots and setting a modern record for dunks in a season (entirely possible). Or Tatum will be more efficient and the best player on another first-place sledgehammer.

And then there’s Edwards, who’s coming off his breath-stealing playoff run as the driving force of a championship contender and has contextual advantages other candidates can’t claim. The shocking trade that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo will cause a few hiccups as everyone settles into a new role with new teammates in a different system, but as the NBA’s youngest superstar—a label that’s certainly up for debate but, in my opinion, shouldn’t be applied to anyone who hasn’t competed in the postseason—Ant still has the longest runway to get better. His talent and athleticism require a flame-retardant suit and antigravity chamber to compete with. Nobody will produce flashbulb moments that delve deeper in voters’ memory banks; his unforgettable game-saving blocks and soul-swiping dunks are now a standard occurrence.

Last year, he averaged a career-high 25.9 points per game and had the fifth-highest usage rate in the league. Only five players scored more total points, and his assist rate soared. Understandably, though, Minnesota’s success didn’t always seem aligned with Edwards’s production. He was the engine of an offense that, despite finishing first in 3-point percentage, ranked 17th in efficiency. Instead, behind Defensive Player of the Year winner Gobert, Minnesota’s might was sustained by its league-best ability to get stops.

Edwards’s tenacious on-ball defense helped the Wolves, but a reputational shift for the team that alters Minnesota’s chemistry without lessening its overall effectiveness would help rationalize Ant’s entrance into legitimate MVP conversations. Now, over the next seven months, there’s a real opportunity for him to reshape the Wolves’ identity by giving their attack actual bite instead of the snarl we saw last season. Last season the Timberwolves offense was a team-best 7.3 points per 100 possessions better with Edwards on the court, but too often they fell apart in crunch time. Edwards was minus-44 in those minutes, with 17 assists and 12 turnovers. The Wolves’ offensive rating in crunch time was an insanitary 104.1, as Edwards barely made 20 percent of his 3s.

Now juxtapose that with what we saw in a much smaller sample size during the playoffs, when Ant cooked bubbles on Earth’s crust, posting a 73.2 true shooting percentage with a more polished assist-to-turnover ratio and 35.1 usage rate during crunch time. Minnesota’s offensive rating in those 25 minutes was 122.0. Growth isn’t linear, particularly on a roster that doesn’t naturally accentuate a slasher, but Edwards has proved to be a fast learner. He doesn’t need to reinvent himself so much as react a smidge more quickly to what the defense is doing.

His relationship with Gobert remains a work in progress, but they have real potential as a pick-and-roll partnership, particularly in smaller lineups that allow Edwards to operate in space. Swapping Randle in for Towns is not ideal because of all the ways it will shrink the floor, but Chris Finch can still mitigate fit-related issues. DiVincenzo, Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Naz Reid are all excellent 3-point shooters; Jaden McDaniels is coming off a down year but shot nearly 40 percent behind the arc two seasons ago.

When Gobert is off the floor, Finch is creative enough to open things up by experimenting with Randle at the 5, playmaking as the screener out of short rolls when Ant is blitzed. Edwards can also fall into easier baskets in transition—assuming that Randle has the green light to push it himself off a defensive rebound—and as a cutter off the ball as Randle absorbs attention running dribble handoffs with Conley and DiVincenzo.

So far as individual counting stats go—while keeping in mind that this is a bold prediction—it’s fair to wonder whether Edwards can average at least 30 points per game. A slight tick up (maybe one or two) from that 35.1 minutes per game would help, as would better recognition of the actual shots he’s taking. Finch will presumably stagger him with Randle, too, as a way for both to flourish without stepping on the other’s toes.

Edwards is not an elite midrange shooter, yet he launches more and more of them every year. In 2022, it was 18 percent of his shot profile. In 2023, it was 28 percent of his shot profile. In 2024, it was 38 percent of his shot profile, and only 39 percent of his long 2s went in. This is troubling. But it also speaks to why I’m so high on his candidacy. Edwards made second-team All-NBA last year. Even with more noticeable warts (from shot selection to off-ball defense) than someone on his level typically has, he was still a true game changer who devoured game plans designed to slow him down.

A palpable spike in regular-season numbers as he takes on even more responsibility and massages out the knots in his game—coupled with the fact that Ant basically never gets hurt (he’s missed 16 games in his entire career)—qualifies for the foundation of a strong MVP case. It’s early in his career, sure. But conservative voters who prefer to see a young star show his mettle in the playoffs before rewarding them for regular-season success simply need to look at what he did to the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets last year. What’s scary is how much of it looked like the tip of an iceberg. Edwards is more than a cure for audiences with increasingly short attention spans. He’s irreplaceable and hypercompetitive. More so every month. And by the end of his fifth season, there may not be any basketball player more valuable in the entire league.

13. The Hornets will lead the league in 3-pointers attempted.

There are a few reasons for this. Charlotte’s new head coach, Charles Lee, comes from Boston, where he had a front-row seat to witness and encourage that championship roster’s obsession with the 3-point line. If LaMelo Ball is given a green light this season and a bunch of capable shooters augment his brilliant passing ability along the perimeter, we could definitely see the Hornets go out of their way to hunt home runs.

In the preseason, Charlotte’s 3-point rate is a whopping 49.3, with 72 percent (!!!) of Ball’s shots coming behind the arc, followed by 69.8 percent for incoming rookie Tidjane Salaün (who’s made over 40 percent of them) and 67.2 percent for sophomore wing Brandon Miller. Throw in Seth Curry, Grant Williams, Tre Mann, Josh Green, and a few others who can knock down open shots when called on to do so, and the Hornets might have found their identity for the season.

14. Alex Caruso will win Sixth Man of the Year.

The logic here essentially boils down to our collective responsibility to appreciate players who come off the bench and dominate on the defensive end. They basically never get recognized. Only three players have ever won Sixth Man of the Year while averaging fewer than 10 points per game. (Anthony Mason was the last to do it 30 years ago.) Caruso will break that streak with defense that calls for an experienced hostage negotiator.

If Caruso isn’t actually a sixth man and ends up starting more games than not (a distinct possibility with Isaiah Hartenstein temporarily on the shelf), I’ll instead go with Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana’s forgotten lottery pick, who can, well, score a bunch of points for a high-powered offense that wins a bunch of games. And if Mathurin also fails to qualify, then I’ll pour an entire bottle of Tabasco sauce on the debate and roll with Russell Westbrook.

15. Jalen Williams will make an All-NBA team.

Williams is not a perfect player, but sometimes I wonder whether he’s on track to become one. After a remarkable rookie season, everything about his game was noticeably tighter and sharper in year two, from his scoring average and assist rate to his usage percentage and true shooting percentage. J-Dub’s responsibility mushroomed and his efficiency improved, all as the second-leading scorer on a team that finished first in a highly competitive Western Conference. This is extremely not normal.

He made 42.7 percent of his 3s, which ranked ninth in the league, and exhibited the type of aggression, strength, and balance that let him get to his favorite spots pretty much whenever he wanted. Shot creation inside the arc and outside the restricted area isn’t analytically sound, but it’ll always be valuable. After barely putting a dent in defenses from the midrange during his rookie year, Williams hit half his long 2s even though only 26 percent of them were assisted by a teammate. Again: extremely not normal.

His playmaking duties grew without any real growing pains. He showed he can moonlight as a backup point guard, someone who doesn’t over-dribble, who sees the floor clearly, and who isn’t selfish. Williams was one of the most efficient pick-and-roll playmakers in the NBA last year, even though his pick-and-roll frequency climbed 13.21 percentage points—the fourth-highest jump in the league, per Bball Index.

J-Dub’s touches also rose by 10.6 per game (one of the highest jumps in the league), which made him the only Thunder player who saw an increase in that category last season. It’s fun to imagine what his next step could look like.

The NBA’s decision to get rid of positional designations further boosts Williams’s All-NBA candidacy. He’s missed only 18 games in his entire career, which helps, too. So does being an outstanding defender whose wingspan and low center of gravity can cause damage on and away from the ball. Being the second-best player on a team that might run away with the Western Conference doesn’t hurt, either.

Williams is not impervious to some type of regression. It would be surprising, though, if he did not immediately look like an All-Star, with better counting stats and even more offensive responsibility, sans Giddey (who isn’t around to bogart touches and be ignored by whoever’s guarding him). Taking it one degree further, so far as ideal no. 2s go, is OKC’s third-year star a speckless fusion of Paul George, Jaylen Brown, and Klay Thompson? Are we 10 months away from celebrating J-Dub as the Finals MVP?

16. Collin Sexton will have a playoff moment.

This might be the most underrated player in the NBA. Last season he averaged 25.3 points per 36 minutes while making 39.4 percent of his 3s and 69.3 percent of shots in the restricted area. His 29.5 assist rate was a career high and he drew personal fouls at a star’s rate, ranking in the 99th percentile at his position.

Now, on a team that just re-signed Lauri Markkanen to a long-term contract but, at the same time, would like to bottom out, develop its younger talent, and add a franchise-changing lottery pick to the mix, Sexton is expendable. As a hyper-aggressive three-level scorer with playmaking chops and complete fearlessness attacking the basket, there’s a role for Sexton on a very good team. Some of his defensive shortcomings make him a theoretical question mark in the playoffs—where he’s never actually competed—so for that reason, and a few others (thank you, new apron rules!) it’s hard to construct a fake trade.

But the Lakers and Clippers both make sense. Could the former get him for D’Angelo Russell and an unprotected first-round pick? Or, if the Clippers are competitive enough to sacrifice even more of their future, maybe Norm Powell and a first? What if the Magic offer Cole Anthony, Goga Bitadze, and a first? Or could San Antonio—in the event Wembanyama leads them to the play-in and they want to give their offense some more ball-handling dynamism—present the more positionally versatile Keldon Johnson?

Sexton can work in multiple settings, is on a nice contract that expires in 2026, and, at 25 years old, keeps getting better. He’s thrived in a mostly noncompetitive setting with the Jazz. It’d be interesting to see him try to do the same thing in games that actually matter.

17. Cade Cunningham will be an All-Star.

There are two ways to view the start of Cunningham’s career. The first is with objective analysis. He’s inefficient—a streaky jump shooter who can’t finish around the rim—and makes too many mistakes as his team’s lead ball handler. Cunningham finished 131st in estimated plus-minus on a funereal Pistons team, posting a minus-33.2 net rating in crunch time (the worst figure by any non-Wizard who appeared in at least 20 games) when he was on the court last season.

The second is with contextual caveats. In Cunningham’s third year—which was basically his second, thanks to a shin injury that limited him to a dozen games in 2022-23), he also flashed the chops of a star who was inarguably dragged down by huge, space-deprived lineups and some odd rotation-related decisions that made his situation antithetical to steady progress. Despite that, Cunningham averaged 22.7 points, 7.5 assists, and 4.3 rebounds last season. He made 37.1 percent of his spot-up 3s and 47.8 percent of his pull-up 2s. (In 18 games after the All-Star break, Cunningham drilled 39.6 percent of all his 3s, including 39 percent off the bounce.) His assist rate was the same as LeBron’s. His usage rate was higher than Devin Booker’s. He just turned 23 in September and will enter this season finally surrounded by respected, proven outside shooters who will almost definitely make his life easier in every way.

I wasn’t a fan of Detroit’s decision to sign Tobias Harris. He’s a one-dimensional 32-year-old forward who will suck up shots, touches, and minutes on a rebuilding team that should instead be prioritizing development. But if it’s Harris on a two-year deal worth over $52 million or another year watching Cunningham hopelessly navigate jumbo-sized lineups that clog the paint, well, I’ll take the former 10 times out of 10.

From there, replacing Killian Hayes, Marvin Bagley III, and James Wiseman with Tim Hardaway Jr., Malik Beasley, and a full season of Simone Fontecchio (quietly an awesome shooter) will go a very long way. Incoming shot doctor Fred Vinson can work wonders, and Jaden Ivey’s preseason has been a revelation. Throw in the impact J.B. Bickerstaff should have implementing defensive principles that didn’t exist last year—and the wins those will lead to, especially if they can rise to league average (a reasonable expectation)—and Cunningham is finally positioned for the breakout season Detroit is desperate for him to have.

18. Jarrett Allen will get traded.

Can Allen and Evan Mobley be the starting frontcourt on a championship contender? That’s the question Cleveland has been asking ever since it fell apart against the Knicks two years ago in an ugly first-round exit. While the pair combine to form an airtight interior defense, the spacing issues that pop up on the other end make deploying both at the same time a potential non-starter through four playoff rounds.

Allen can’t be traded until January 27, six months after he signed a three-year, $90.7 million extension that, unlike Lauri Markkanen’s new contract, was conveniently finalized on a date that wouldn’t prohibit him from getting moved this year.

This doesn’t mean there’s urgency to move on, though. The situation is too complicated for that. Allen is very good, 26 years old, under contract through 2029, and a productive starter on a team that has a chance to finish with the best record in the Eastern Conference. All that positivity presents a fascinating dichotomy when you consider how at odds this team’s regular-season success is with the various issues (some more theoretically than others) Cleveland may again run into in the playoffs.

Does Koby Altman play the waiting game or put his thumb on the scale with a proactive shake-up? He’ll have nearly four months to see what his team looks like while simultaneously weighing occasional offers from teams around the league that might value Allen more than the Cavs do.

If he goes with the former, the next question becomes: Short of winning the title, what needs to happen for Allen not to be traded during the offseason? Because if the Cavaliers fall short of a lengthy playoff run and are restricted by the same frontcourt dilemma they’ve pretty much endured throughout Mobley’s entire career, a divorce feels inevitable.

And if Altman goes with the latter, here are a few potential destinations that make some sense:

Sacramento: Allen and Ty Jerome for Kevin Huerter, Trey Lyles, and a first-round pick

This is a “one-step back, two-steps forward” trade for the Kings. They sacrifice some spacing and depth to hopefully improve a defense that might have topped out at “slightly below average” (despite leading the league in defensive rebounding) last season.

Sacramento’s starting five would then likely be Allen, Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, DeRozan, and Keegan Murray, with Keon Ellis and Malik Monk coming off the bench. The Kings aren’t going to do anything drastic until they see how DeRozan fits in. But: spoiler alert—so long as Sabonis is the team’s starting center, DeRozan is not going to fix Sacramento’s defense.

For the Cavaliers, this trade would add two role players who make plenty of sense beside Mobley, Mitchell, and Garland; make them a lot more flexible; and—as a team that can currently only trade one pick thanks to most of its future belonging to the Jazz—tack on a valuable draft asset.

New Orleans: Allen for Trey Murphy III and TBD

Sometimes, two trade partners make too much sense for something not to happen. The Pelicans need a center who can produce exactly how Jarrett Allen does. The Cavs need to balance out their starting lineup with more 3-point shooting and offensive versatility. Allen for Trey Murphy III, straight up, is not legally permissible but could/should be the backbone of something more complex.

Chicago: Allen for Nikola Vucevic, two unprotected first-round picks, and two pick swaps

This is semi-serious. If you’re the Bulls, why not? Your defense is about to be atrocious (see above) and you’re frantic for useful cogs who know how to win and can function in almost any environment.

It’s slightly more complicated for the Cavaliers, but what if Vucevic can bounce back from a down year and, at 34, start hitting 3s again? He’s a skilled big who’d function well on both ends next to Mobley. And if Chicago is willing to fork over two first-round picks, Cleveland would have to engage.

Los Angeles Lakers: Allen for D’Angelo Russell, Christian Wood, two first-round picks, and a swap OR Rui Hachimura and Dalton Knecht

Spacing issues aside, if the Lakers do this they would immediately boast one of the two or three most menacing defenses in the Western Conference. Allen is a mobile big who can switch along the perimeter and quickly slide from the weakside to contest shots at the rim. He can execute just about any pick-and-roll coverage on the ball, too. Next to Anthony Davis (one of the few big men alive who’s a better defender than Mobley, and someone who doesn’t want to spend the rest of his career banging around the paint) Allen could be incredible, with an offensive skill set that’s nothing to sneeze at, either. He’s a lob-catching dunk machine who sets some of the firmest screens in the league. All of L.A.’s ball handlers will appreciate having him around.

If you’re the Cavs, neither package is something to write home about, but both could stanch the present-day bleeding Allen’s loss would create while adding some promise down the line, either through financial relief, draft capital, or a rookie like Knecht—who, to be fair, is two months older than Mobley. This hypothetical is admittedly more about L.A. finding the big man Davis wants than anything else, though.

19. The Sixers will be a play-in team.

As the NBA’s glut of talent steadily evens out from team to team, its postseason standings become increasingly tangential. Sure, home-court advantage is nice and nobody wants to have their entire season decided by the whims of a one- or two-game elimination tournament. But the ever-uncompromising 82-game regular season is more a battle of attrition than ever. Health is a priceless commodity coveted by all, from genuine contenders to wannabe upstarts.

The Sixers are smack-dab in the middle of this debate right now. On the one hand, they absolutely need to prioritize Joel Embiid’s physical condition. Without him standing tall in May, they have no chance to compete in June, seeding be damned. But assuming his minutes are closely monitored and we see scheduled rest set a 60-game ceiling for him—which doesn’t include the likelihood of Embiid suffering some type of ailment that knocks that number down—the next issue is chemistry.

Learning how to revolve around Embiid is not easy, and this Sixers roster will return just four players (Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Kyle Lowry, and Kelly Oubre Jr.) from last season’s playoff rotation. Paul George, Eric Gordon, Caleb Martin, Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond, Guerschon Yabusele, and first-round pick Jared McCain are all new arrivals. There are questions about size, depth, and a bunch of relatively old players who harbor their own injury-related histories.

Philly is super talented and can win the championship, but right now its top two concerns—making sure Embiid is healthy and giving new pieces enough time to develop chemistry with Embiid—are at odds with each other. Meanwhile, the Sixers’ competition at the top of the conference is real. Boston, New York, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Indiana, Orlando, and Miami are seven teams that plan to take the regular season seriously. All maintain their own set of snags and predicaments, but none plan to see their franchise player in and out of the lineup for the next five months, while learning on the fly how to incorporate a decorated nine-time All-Star and discover what the best version of themselves actually looks like. There isn’t a lot of room for error here.

20. The Lakers will miss the play-in tournament.

Los Angeles has roster continuity on its side. It has Anthony Davis and LeBron James. It has a new head coach (JJ Redick) who’ll try to modernize everyone’s shot profile. It’s also top-heavy, injury-prone, full of one-dimensional cogs and unproven youngsters. But this prediction is as much about the conference’s tough competition as it is L.A.’s numerous on-court flaws and puzzling stasis.

With the Grizzlies back (more on them in a minute!), the Rockets ascending, and just about every team in the Western Conference except the Jazz and Blazers believing they can make the playoffs—after a summer full of moves that will help them get there—the stagnant Lakers may be in trouble.

21. The Grizzlies will make the NBA Finals.

Schoolyard bullies who are repeatedly punched in the face aren’t usually granted a triumphant second act. But with an established pedigree, evolving identity, and visible battle scars that should splash an abnormal amount of motivation onto a core that can only benefit from last year’s humiliation, the Grizzlies are primed for an epic vengeance tour.

Ja Morant nearly witnessed his budding Hall of Fame–worthy career go up in flames for myriad reasons that were entirely his own fault. Marcus Smart watched his former team win the title after trading him away. Jaren Jackson Jr. went from Defensive Player of the Year to completely ignored in virtually every All-Defensive team discussion. Desmond Bane missed the playoffs for the first time in his career. Zach Edey was called one of the worst draft picks in NBA history.

Almost everyone on this team was humbled by last year’s misery, where injuries, off-court turmoil, and even more injuries asphyxiated Memphis’s bravado. Did I mention there were also several injuries? Smart missed 62 games, Bane missed 40, Brandon Clarke missed 76, Luke Kennard missed 43 (and is currently out with a foot injury, with no timetable for his return), John Konchar missed 27, and Morant missed 73.

The Grizzlies were 27-55 and finished dead last in offensive rating, thrusting healthy bodies into roles that stretched them to their absolute limit. (Jackson Jr. played some point guard, Bane went from a movement shooter to a high-volume pick-and-roll playmaker, etc.) They had 51 different starting lineups. How is that even possible? But now that their slate is clean, that experience combined with Memphis’s preexisting star power, hunger, and winning intangibles make this team scary on both sides of the ball.

Three years ago, they won 56 games, with enough velocity, rebounding, and flair to neutralize some obvious shortcomings—like 3-point shooting—that still exist but aren’t irrepressible. (Last season the Grizzlies led the league in catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts, with a top-five overall 3-point rate after ranking near the bottom of the league during their ascent.)

The most important ingredients are in place. Morant is a bona fide superstar. Bane is one of the best shooters alive. Jackson Jr. is one of the best defenders alive. Smart is cagey, experienced, and resourceful. Edey can (easily) be the rim-running center who sets monster screens, crashes the offensive glass, and outworks opposing big men that Memphis needs.

Outside that starting five: Clarke spaces the court vertically, Kennard is a career 43.9 percent 3-point shooter with off-the-bounce verve, Vince Williams Jr. is a revelation as a 3-and-D wing, Santi Aldama is a multifaceted big, GG Jackson (when he returns from injury) is a 19-year-old who scored 44 points in a game last season, Scotty Pippen Jr. was arguably the best player at Las Vegas summer league, and if the Swiss army knife was officially renamed the Konchar army knife it would make total sense to anyone who’s ever watched him play.

On top of all that, the Grizzlies have revamped their coaching staff under Taylor Jenkins. Notable here is the addition of Tuomas Iisalo, hired from a French club, Paris Basketball, where he oversaw what might’ve been the most efficient offense in the world. His influence, imparting waves of ball and man movement, could be a shot of adrenaline for a roster that already has so much speed, intelligence, physicality, selflessness, and versatility. (Not a coincidence: Memphis leads the preseason in assist rate. Sharing is caring and very hard to stop.)

The Grizzlies enter the season with a $12.6 million trade exception (from the Steven Adams trade) and the full midlevel exception. Right now they’re safely under the tax, while owning one open roster spot and four tradable first-round picks. What you see now is probably not what they’ll look like in March. But even before then, assuming health, maturity, and some internal growth, the Grizzlies should be one of the most formidable teams in the Western Conference, with a defensive identity and a balanced, relentless offense.

Beating the Nuggets, Thunder, Mavericks, or Timberwolves in a seven-game series won’t be easy. Beating more than one of them is even more daunting. But the Grizzlies are electric, galvanized, complementary, and skilled enough (again: if healthy) to credibly win three playoff rounds in a row.

A few bonus Grizzlies-related predictions: Bane and Morant will both be All-Stars, Edey will win Rookie of the Year, and they’ll finish with a top-5 defense.

22. The Los Angeles Clippers will trade Kawhi Leonard.

I’m about two months removed from writing a bullish piece about this team and its ability to defy low expectations and potentially (potentially!) make some noise in the postseason. I wrote it before we officially learned that Leonard’s knee still isn’t right and the Clippers don’t know when he’ll be healthy enough to play, though, which can be seen as either a fair excuse or certifiable proof of my own delusion. Either way, it’s not what you want.

I still kinda like the Clippers and believe that Ty Lue can manufacture some magic with a roster as versatile as the one he’ll get to work with. But at the same time, given their dearth of options and how competitive the Western Conference has become, it’d be silly for people in that organization not to at least consider what a post-Leonard future can look like.

This is nowhere near a fait accompli. Kawhi was second-team All-NBA last year. He’s only 33, is on a decent contract that expires in three years, and can still be the best player on a championship-level team. He’s also easily the most complicated star to trade. General managers around the league are not lining up around the block to give away valuable assets for Leonard’s injury history and inconvenient regimen of scheduled rest.

But if the price is right for an organization that can’t resist the possibility that Leonard will recapture his superstar form sometime in the next couple of seasons, there’s obvious appeal, too—if they can convince themselves that such an acquisition is medium risk, magnificent reward. From the Clippers’ perspective, if they can kick-start something fresh in Steve Ballmer’s new arena while, critically, convincing the Oklahoma City Thunder or Philadelphia 76ers (it’s very complicated) to give them back the rights to their own first-round pick in 2026 (which may be possible by dangling other assets down the line), then there may be something to discuss sooner rather than later.

If this sounds like a lot, it is! Leonard probably won’t get traded anytime soon. But in the NBA, there’s a very thin line between unlikely and anticipated. Here are a few hypotheticals both sides could, at the very least, consider:

Leonard to Houston for Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, and Jalen Green.

The Rockets have options. One is slow rolling their rebuild and watching their buffet of blue-chip prospects develop organically. Another is something more aggressive: a consolidation trade that accelerates their timeline and increases the urgency to win at the highest level without ravaging the future. If the Clippers can’t bottom out anytime soon, acquiring two solid veterans and a 22-year-old whose talent and athleticism beget the potential to become their next franchise player would be a convenient consolation prize.

Leonard to New Orleans for Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones.

The pros: The Pelicans extricate themselves from the Ingram quagmire and make a meaningful talent upgrade by adding one of the league’s best players without losing any of their draft capital.

The cons: Given their obvious injury concerns, pairing Zion Williamson with Leonard would generate a historic boom-or-bust spectacle. The entire city of New Orleans would be day-to-day. Jones’s $13 million contract makes this transaction possible, but including him might be a deal-breaker for the Pelicans.

Leonard to Cleveland for Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, one unprotected first-round pick, and three pick swaps.

This inclusion is admittedly more about how intriguing it would be to turbo-thrust the Cavaliers than about what the Clippers would say (because the Clippers would say hell no). Cleveland’s positional overlap is an issue that won’t go away until either Garland or Jarrett Allen is traded. (Something I touched on above.) If they can balance their roster out by getting someone who, when healthy, looks like the best player on the planet? Yes, please (for the Cavaliers, anyway). With Leonard the Cavaliers would be the second-best team in the Eastern Conference and a verifiable threat to win it all. And if his knee doesn’t respond well, it’s the type of swing that wouldn’t completely hobble Donovan Mitchell’s tenure, either.

Leonard to San Antonio for Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Stephon Castle, and Minnesota’s first-round pick in 2031.

Pardon the sentimental wishcasting, but this would be an incredible full-circle moment that’d make everyone—except teams that otherwise wouldn’t have to seriously worry about San Antonio for another few years—feel warm and fuzzy.

I understand all the ways this upturns the rich soil San Antonio was disciplined enough to put down even before it landed Wembanyama: its patient strategy to peak during its 20-year-old phenom’s prime. Yes. Got it. I agree and think it’s commendable. I also understand how cumbersome this trade could be if Leonard never again comes close to resembling the Terminator who obliterated everything in his path before he tore his ACL in the 2021 playoffs. But you know what would be even cooler than a slow and steady rebuild? Pairing Kawhi with Wembanyama and immediately becoming a championship contender that still has control of all its own draft capital and didn’t have to give up Devin Vassell.

There are probably some fences that need to be mended between Kawhi and his former team. Any reunion might be a bridge too far. But Gregg Popovich’s respect for Leonard was clear last year when he scolded Spurs fans for booing someone who won a Finals MVP in their favorite team’s jersey.

If you’re the Clippers, this is probably as good as it gets; they’re in need of an escape hatch, so one blue-chip prospect plus decent draft compensation isn’t going to solve all their problems—but to get started on whatever the next era will look like, it’s the best they can realistically ask for.