Election Eve polls in the three northern battleground states that could decide the presidential election found slight movement toward Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris still is effectively tied with former President Donald Trump.
The three polls, released Monday by Florida Atlantic University, found Harris ever-so-slightly ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
But the leads are small, and within the polling margin of error, which means either candidate could be ahead, or they could be tied.
“While we are seeing some movement toward Vice President Harris in our final battleground polls, the race is still very close. A movement of a few points in either direction in the last day could be the difference,” Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist, said via email.
He’s also co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science, which conducts public opinion polling.
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are the three so-called Blue Wall states that could prove decisive in determining the winner. Their importance can be seen in the candidates’ schedules; Harris and Trump are devoting the bulk of the final day of campaigning on Monday to events in Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania
Harris leads Trump 49% to 47% among likely voters in Pennsylvania.
FAU found 1% supporting another candidate, and 2% were undecided. (The numbers add up to less than 100 because of rounding.)
The poll found Harris 6 points ahead of Trump among women and Trump 2 points ahead of Harris among men.
Wisconsin
Harris leads Trump 49% to 48% among likely Wisconsin votes.
The poll found 2% choosing another candidate and 2% undecided. (The numbers add up to more than 100 because of rounding.)
The poll reported Harris is 11 points ahead of Trump among women in Wisconsin and Trump 10 points ahead of Harris among men.
Michigan
Harris leads Trump 49% to 47% among likely voters in Michigan.
The poll found 2% choosing another candidate and 3% undecided. (The numbers add up to more than 100 because of rounding.)
Harris is 5 percentage points ahead of Trump among women in Michigan and Trump leads Harris by 1 point among men, the poll reported.
Fine print
The polls of 798 registered voters in Wisconsin, 733 in Michigan and 726 in Pennsylvania were conducted Oct. 25 to Nov. 2 for FAU by Mainstreet Research.
The surveys used an online panel and text messaging to reach voters with a link to complete the survey. Each survey has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 4 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents.
However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.
Anthony Man can be reached at [email protected] and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.
