Globalisation 2040

Imagining democratic transition in

authoritarian nations
Israa ALBINFALAH
 Table of contents
Introduction Conceptual framework
01 opening and main question 02 Historical context and brief
explanation of the Arab Spring

Persistence of
M.E in numbers
authoritarianism
03 Current reality to understand 04 Three key factors analysed
importance of the region

Conclusion
05 Prospects for democracy
Can we imagine democracy for
06 Main points summarised and
opening questions
the M.E in 2040?
 01 Introduction
What long-term impacts might the Arab Spring have on the democratic landscape of the Middle
East by 2040?
Can globalization influence the development of democratic institutions in the Middle East by
2040?
02 Historical Context & Framework

Authoritarianism:
● Cold War, when the opposition between democracy
and totalitarianism prevailed.
● define a third class of regimes that, despite their
undemocratic character, could not be equated with
the totalitarian formations of Nazism or Stalinism.
● Relies on systems of allegiance, clientelism, family
ries, surveillance of population and corruption
 The Arab Spring Pattern

Yemen Egypt
● President Ali Abdullah Saleh ● Hosni Mubarak Administration
● Severe economic suffering, corruption & ● January 2011 : large scale protest in Cairo
political repression that spread to other cities
● January 2011 : protests ● Outcome : Mubarak was compelled to leave
● Worst humanitarian crisis to this day place to a military backed administration that
still had dictatorial tendencies
 Outcome of the Arab Spring
Current situation
Political repression in more severe, sluggish economic growth, rampant corruption, no
gender equality

Authoritarian Bargain = no longer holds

Citizens are more

politically Consciousness
engaged No immediate reforms but initiated a
long process of revitalization
Case of Algeria and
Sudan
03 The Middle East in numbers

In 18 of 21 countries
Freedom(Economist
of Press declined post-Arab Spring

4% to 6,7%
Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index)

Increase in extreme poverty between 2013-2015

11 countries
fall into the worst-performing category on the
UN's Gender Development Index
 10.8%
Unemployment rate in 2018 (excluding oil-rich countries)

2,4% only
Of the global total in 2018 in Foreign Direct investment

60%
fall into the worst-performing category on the UN's
Gender Development Index

50%
Young Arabs wished to emigrate due to the political regime
04 What explains the persistence of
authoritarianism?
Strategic Alliances and Cross-cutting coalitions
Mostly within the nation. Ex: Morocco where the monarchy secured support of the
business class and agricultural elites

Access to Hydrocarbon Resources

Oil rents allow monarchies to distribute material incentives and social benefits. Refer to
Luciani and Beblawi in “The rentier state”. Ex : Gulf States

Foreign Backing
Provides diplomatic and economic support. Ex: American naval base (NAVY) in
several Gulf countries such as Bahrain
 Prospects for a democratic transition
05 in the region
Impact of Globalisation
Technology and Economic
Connectivity Globalisation
- Impact of Digital - Economic Integration: pressure
Technologies and new from other countries to adopt
uncensored social media governance reforms to continue
platforms expanding in the global market
- Cybersecurity concerns, - Economic hardship fuels demand
misinformation, digital for democracy
authoritarianism
 Steven Heydemann’s
theory (2007)
● Tactics to promote democracy by the West have
reach their limits
● Arab governments have innovated and used
democratic symbols to maintain power
● UPGRADED AUTHORITARIANISM: ability to
adapt and respond to civilian pressure without giving
up their real authority.
CONCEPT OF “UPGRADED AUTHORITARIANISM”
Facade of political - Only limited to pro-regime parties or individuals who pose no threat to
Competition the authority.

Emergence of GONGOS - compete with genuine civil society organizations.

(government-organized non- - the creation of the Tunisian League of Human Rights led the government to
governmental organizations) create special offices on human rights with much better connections

Controlling the new media - Media that provide a platform for opposition voices.
- Al Jazeera in 1996 in the wake of the palace coup : platform with free
speech except about QataR

Selective economic - Expand the regimes political and social base

liberalization measures - Economic benefits to certain groups ex: Sunni Bourgeoisie in Syria

Diversifying international - Forging close ties with russia or china as an alternative to the US.
linkage
 06 Conclusion
⯁ The persistence of monarchies and authoritarian regimes can be attributes to a
combination of strategic alliances, hydrocarbon resources and substantial foreign
backing
⯁ The arab spring, failed to bring immediate change, however awakened political
consciousness and engagement among ordinary citizens around the region
⯁ Importance of the impact of digital technologies and globalization as a whole
⯁ Understanding all these factors is essential to craft effective strategies to support
democratic transitions and promote human development in the region.
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