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    YSB583E-Polar Oceanography Term Project: Kubilay DOKUMCU

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    Kubilay DÖKÜMCÜ
    The Arctic Ocean is warming rapidly due to increased heat transport from Atlantic and Pacific waters. By 2100, climate models project that the Arctic could be nearly free of sea ice in September. This will occur as rising air and ocean temperatures cause sea ice extent, thickness and volume to decline. The influx of warmer, saltier water is decreasing vertical stability and causing the mixed layer to deepen, allowing more heat to enter the Arctic Ocean.

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    YSB583E-Polar Oceanography Term Project: Kubilay DOKUMCU

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    Kubilay DÖKÜMCÜ
    28 views16 pages
    The Arctic Ocean is warming rapidly due to increased heat transport from Atlantic and Pacific waters. By 2100, climate models project that the Arctic could be nearly free of sea ice in September. This will occur as rising air and ocean temperatures cause sea ice extent, thickness and volume to decline. The influx of warmer, saltier water is decreasing vertical stability and causing the mixed layer to deepen, allowing more heat to enter the Arctic Ocean.

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    Arctic Présentation

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    K_Dökümcü

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    The Arctic Ocean is warming rapidly due to increased heat transport from Atlantic and Pacific waters. By 2100, climate models project that the Arctic could be nearly free of sea ice in September. This will occur as rising air and ocean temperatures cause sea ice extent, thickness and volume to decline. The influx of warmer, saltier water is decreasing vertical stability and causing the mixed layer to deepen, allowing more heat to enter the Arctic Ocean.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    28 views16 pages

    YSB583E-Polar Oceanography Term Project: Kubilay DOKUMCU

    Uploaded by

    Kubilay DÖKÜMCÜ
    The Arctic Ocean is warming rapidly due to increased heat transport from Atlantic and Pacific waters. By 2100, climate models project that the Arctic could be nearly free of sea ice in September. This will occur as rising air and ocean temperatures cause sea ice extent, thickness and volume to decline. The influx of warmer, saltier water is decreasing vertical stability and causing the mixed layer to deepen, allowing more heat to enter the Arctic Ocean.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 16

    YSB583E-

    Polar
    Oceanography
    TERM
    PROJECT
    Kubilay DOKUMCU
    Arctic Ocean General View

    • The smallest
    • The shallowest
    • Covered by sea
    ice in winter January 2015 March 2015

    • Half of the area


    ice-free during
    summer

    (Ilicak et al. 2016) September 2015 (NOAA-GFDL data, CMIP-6) (Carmack et. al 2015)
    Global Climate Change – Polar Regions
    • Sea Ice melt?
    • Direct relationship • the sea ice expanse lessens
    • Poleward transport of atmospheric heat and • incoming solar radiation strikes the highly reflective ice
    cover
    moisture • reaches the low-albedo liquid ocean
    • Influenced by the climate at lower latitudes • warms the ocean, melts the sea ice
    • Atmospheric greenhouse gases • Coupled?
    concentration generally stronger at high • atmosphere, oceans, land, ice
    latitudes than at lower latitudes • CMIP6?
    • The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase
    • New definition of Arctic Amplification: The
    region has warmed four times faster than The main reason: AW water flowing to Norway Sea
    the globe since 1980. (not twice!)

    September 2015
    Rantanen et al. (2021) September 2100
    (Ilicak et al. 2016) 2100-2015 September SST
    Houghton et al. 1996
    2015-2100 Sea Ice Area

    2015 September 2083 September


    Whole Arctic is Ice-free at 2083 September.

    East Siberian,
    Laptev, Barents Canada Basin is Makarov Basin is The last icy place in September 2082 is the LINCOLN SEA.
    Sea is ice-free. ice-free. ice-free.

    2015 September 2060 September 2075 September 2083 September 2100 September
    Min, Max and Mean SIA
    Values
    Total Arctic Canada Basin Makarov Basin

    East Siberian Sea Barents Sea Bering Strait

    (Melting every season


    (Very soon melted) After 2080-off)
    Sea Ice Extent

    Coherent??  September
    SIA-free: 2083
    SIE-free: 2060
    Why? If RCP 8.5 scenario happens, the Arctic will be almost
    15 PERCENT free of ice in September before 2060, approximately
    The state of the sea ice is
    CUTOFF 2053 (Huang et al., 2017). Current (September 2021)
    determined by its extent, This data supports that.
    thickness and volume!
    Sea Ice Volume

    Average Arctic
    sea ice volume
    in March 2021
    was 21,700 km³
    Average Arctic
    sea ice volume
    in September
    2019 was 4,200
    km³

    Depends on both SIC


    and SIT.
    SIV is more directly tied
    to climate forcing than
    SIE.
    An important climate
    indicator in climate
    study.

    (Shu et al., 2015) 2015-2100 SIV difference 30 different CMIP-5 (Song, 2016)
    Min, Max and Mean SIT Values
    Total Arctic Canada Basin Bering Strait

    East Siberian Sea Barents Sea Laptev Sea

    (Very soon melted) (Melting every season)


    Sea Ice Thickness MAY SIT

    May 2015 May 2060 May 2100

    May 2100-2015 Difference


    SEPTEMBER SIT

    September 2015 September 2060 September 2100

    September 2100-2015 Difference


    10 years Mean (First (2015-2025) - Last(2090-2100)) Temp Difference
    Increase every region of the Arctic!: Atlantification
    Fram Strait Barents Sea Laptev Sea

    No Double diffusion anymore?

    East Siberian Sea Canada Basin Bering Strait

    The increase in the heat of water coming from Atlantic?


    10 years Mean (First (2015-2025) - Last(2090-2100)) Salinity Difference
    Fresher,
    can not subduct? Fram Strait Barents Sea Laptev Sea

    East Siberian Sea Canada Basin Bering Strait


    Min, Mean and Max Salinity Values
    Fram Strait Barents Sea Laptev Sea

    Less 35
    Subduct?

    Heat enters the Arctic Ocean as Atlantic Water through the Fram Strait and Barents Sea and subducts 200-800 m.
    The Atlantic waters that dive down into the vast boreal basin always show temperature readings above 0°C and salinity higher than
    35%. 

    East Siberian Sea Canada Basin Bering Strait

    River
    Input
    Min, Max and Mean Mixed Layer Depth
    (determines the heat content) (Temperature, salinity, density vertically uniform)
    Fram Strait Barents Sea Bering Strait

    (Mixed layer deepens!)


    East Siberian Sea Canada Basin Laptev Sea
    April and September Bering Strait Temperature and Salinity
    2015-2060-2061-2062-2063-2100 2061?? 2061-2060 Difference

    April Salinity
    April Temp Temp difference- Attention
    ESS, flowing to Bering

    Salinity difference
    September Temp September Salinity
    Conclusions
    • Heat enters the Arctic Ocean as Atlantic Water through the Fram Strait (waters warmer than 0°C
    spreading throughout the basin at depths between roughly 200 and 800 m) and Barents Sea; as
    Pacific Water through the Bering Strait.
    • The key factor causing seawater flows to dive very deep is salinity rather than temperature.
    • The temperature and salinity of the AW flowing into the Norwegian Sea were anomalously high,
    suggesting that the ongoing warming of the Arctic Ocean interior will probably continue in the
    near future.
    • Arctic Amplification: 4 times
    • Atlantification: vertical stability of the Arctic Ocean is decreasing as the warm waters reach further
    upward
    • The thickness of the mixed layer determines the heat content. Mixed layer deepens.
    • Melting line: East Siberian, Chuckchi, Laptev Canada Makarov Lincoln Sea (Latest)
    • The state of the sea ice is determined by its extent, thickness and volume!

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