Hexaware Review

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COVID-19 Business Impact analysis

OBJECTIVES

• Identifying scale of impact of COVID-19 pandemic on key Hexaware customers in Europe 



• Building a financial model to drive forecast of COVID impact on Firm Revenues, profits and IT
spends​

• Forecast potential recovery models based on existing recovery models and inferences ​

• Create industry specific models for BFS, H&I, GTT and M&C verticals ​

• Perform opportunity analysis for selected customers in Europe to validate relevance of


opportunity pipeline post Covid ​

• Recommend 2Q-4Q marketing mix to ensure Hexaware successfully grows and stays relevant for
customers  ​

2
ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
4 Steps to understand Y-O-Y revenue hit

Firm Recession Recovery Industry COVID-19 Impact


Trace recovery time period and post
recession y-o-y growth 4 1 Understand pandemic impact on
sector and recovery potential

Revenue Forecast
Firm Recession Impact Industry Recession history
Quantify step 2 impact on firm
revenue and profitability 3 2 Identify similar recession phases in
industry timeline

4
COVID-19 IMPACT SNAPSHOT-EU
BFS
• Insurance : Delay in premium payments due to paucity of money
• Banking : Lower transaction income due to trade shortage, reduced loan
offtake due to cautious consumer outlook, reduced NIMs due to low
interest rates
• Auto-Leasing : Limited new leasing activity due to auto-production
slowdown and potential change in consumer spending habits
M&C
• Retail (Essentials) : Demand shock due to overstocking, increased
pressure on supply chains to deliver under lockdown conditions
• Retail (Non-Essentials) : Markets could crash due to low demand, risk on
product shelf life, overdependence on imports.
H&I
• Pharmaceuticals : Bottleneck in production volumes due to low labour
output and physical distancing. 70% drug import dependence on china
GTT
• Aviation : IATA revenue loss for passenger business is between $ 63B
(11%) and $ 114B(19%) due to travel restrictions.
Professional Services
• IT services : Digital gets push with remote working and firms exploring
digital channel, highlighting importance of investment in cloud, data,
automation self-service capabilities.
• Telecom : Increased broadband usage(>10% as-is) and bottleneck in
customer operations to meet growing demand.
Market volatility index 2008 financial crisis vs 2020 COVID- 3
source : Mckinsey & Company Industry Impact Report 19 source : Wall Street journal, 19th March
IT SPEND MODELLING
Scenario based forecasting for firm’s Y-O-Y tech budget

3 scenario analysis to assess possible IT spend delta


3 scenarios considered for firms, 2020 Q1 onwards 1200

Growth : Firm’s expected growth profitability based on developments


1000
introduced in sector viz new technology, better supply chains, digital
transformation. Projections are modelled based on industry reports Indicated
800
by green trajectory.

600
Business as usual : Firm’s expected revenues if business continued as usual
with no enhancements or recession. Projections are modelled using linear
regression of firm’s historic revenues. 400

Indicated by orange trajectory.


200

Recession : Firms expected revenues if impacted by COVID-19. Projections


are modelled based on historic %decline in revenue growth y-o-y. 0
Indicated by red trajectory. 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Projected Revenues are mapped to Sector-wise IT budget(% revenues) to Revenues($m) As-is Revenue forecast
forecast respective IT spend. Recession induced Revenue forecast Revenue Growth forecast

IT spend = Revenue for the year * %profit margin * % Annual IT budget


5
HEXAWARE REVENUES

Hexaware share of IT spend = Average revenue from Account/ Average IT spend of the firm

Hexaware Account revenues = Firm Revenues * IT spend(% of revenues) * Hexaware share of IT spend

Direction >>>> Accuracy

7
OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS
Determining Product mix

7
WAY FORWARD

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 & Week 8

1. MVP of Week 1 output for 2 Expand MVP to +15


companies across parameters. companies
Submit impact outcomes across Portfolio analysis for W3
revenues, IT spend and business companies
views Interim review/check point
2. Initiate conversation for presentation
opportunity analysis and
portfolio analysis with account
teams and Marketing

1. Create a Europe wide view 1. Create a Europe wide view of


of impact, portfolio impact, portfolio analysis,
Expand MVP to +5 companies
Table of Contents ,Analysis analysis, opportunity and opportunity and marketing
Portfolio analysis for W3
Frameworks, Parameters for marketing mix mix
companies Interim review/check
Analysis and Models 2. Finalise the Model for 2. Finalise the Model for impact
point presentation
impact analysis and analysis and opportunity
opportunity analysis analysis
References

Revenue reports :
• Companyhouse.gov.uk, individual firm media reports

Industry and firm impact :


• Mckinsey & Company : COVID-19 Implications for Business, April 2020 Business Briefing
• Mckinsey & Company : Briefing Materials, April 3rd, 2020
• Roland Berger CaaS business overview, 2020
• Roland Berger Aviation industry COVID-19 POV report,2020
• COVID-19 : Managing Supply Chain disruption, Oliver Wyman 2020
• The impact of COVID-19 on share prices in the UK – Institute for fiscal studies
• COVID-19 and the new leadership agenda, Boston Consulting Group 2020
• PWC : Considering potential business impact COVID-19

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