Introduction To Statistical Process Control

Introduction to Statistical
Process Control
Module 4
History of Statistical
Process Control
• Quality Control in Industry
– Shewhart and Bell Telephones
• Deming & Japan after WWII
• Use in Health Care & Public Health
The Run Chart
The Count
Day Cups of Coffee
Sunday 12
Monday 2
Tuesday 4
Wednesday 3
Thursday 5
Friday 4
Saturday 2
The Mean
The mean of 4, 7, 8 , and 2 is equal to:
4+7+8+2
4
The Median-Odd Numbers
• = the middle value in an ordered series of
numbers.
• To take the median of 1, 7, 3, 10, 19, 4, 8
• Order these numbers: 1,3,4,7,8,10,19
• The median is zth number up the series
where z=(k+1)/2 and k=number of
numbers.
• What is the median in this case?
The Median-Even k
• Order the numbers, i.e., 1,7,10,14,15, 17.
• Find the middle values, i.e., 10 and 14.
• Take the average between these two
values.
• What is the median?
The Proportion
You have these 10 values representing 10 people:
0,0,0,1,0,1,0,0,1,0.
Zero means person did not get sick.

One means person did get sick.
What is the mean of these 10 values?
(0+0+0+1+0+1+0+0+1+0)/10 = .333
Proportion= n/N, where n=number of people who got sick and

N=total number of people. n=numerator, N=denominator.
What is a population?
• A group of people?
• A group of people over time?
• Hospital visits?
• Motor vehicle crashes?
• Ambulance Calls?
• Vehicle-Miles?
• X-Rays Read?
• Other?
Populations take on
Distributions
In simple statistical process control, we deal

with 4 distributions.
From central tendency to variation.
The Normal Distribution

How do we describe variation about the red
line in the normal curve?
• In other words, how fat is that distribution?
• How about the average difference between each
observation and the mean?
– Oops, can’t add those differences, some are positive
and some are negative.
• How about adding up the absolute values of
those differences?
– Bad statistical properties.
• How about the average squared difference?
– Now we are talking! 
Population Variance
N
Population Variance =
1
N
∑ (x - µ)
i
2
i=1
The average squared deviation!

Population Standard Deviation
Population Standard N
∑ (x - µ)
√
Deviation = 1 2
i
N
i=1
The square root of the average squared deviation!

Standard Deviation has
Nice Properties!
025 .025
It’s Time to Dance
How do I estimate the standard deviation of the
means of repeated samples?
• Estimate the standard deviation of the

population with your sample using the
sample standard deviation.
• Estimate the standard deviation of the
mean of repeated samples by calculating
the standard error.
Sample Standard Deviation
N
∑ (x - x)
√
1
S = 2
N-1 i
i=1
How is this different from the Population Standard

Deviation?
Standard Error
s
SE =
√ n
How is this different from the Sample Standard

Deviation?
Z-Score for Distribution of Sample
Means
x- μ
Z=
SE
X = mean observed in your sample
μ = is the population mean you believe in.
Z = number of standard errors x is away from μ,
You can convert any group of numbers to z-scores.

If we kept dancing for hundreds of times
Here is the distribution of our sample means
(standardized)
Wait a minute!
• When you do a survey, you only have one
sample, not hundreds of repeated
samples.
• How confident can you be that the mean
of your one sample represents the mean
of the population?
• If you think reality is a normal distribution
with mean y and standard deviation s, how
likely is your observed mean of x?
Welcome to
• Confidence Intervals
• P-Values
• Let’s focus on p-values for now.

Here is our distribution of sample means—WE BELIEVE
What is the
probability of
Area under curve observing a mean
is probability and at least as far
it adds up to one. away as zero (on
either side) as
1.96 standard
errors? 2.72?
.025 .025
Here is the mean we observed

(1.96 ≈ 2)
Remember the p-value question?
• If you think reality is a normal distribution
with mean y and standard deviation s, how
likely is your observed mean of x?
Let’s ask it again.
• We have systolic blood pressure measurements on a sample of 50
patients for each of 25 months. For each of those months, we a
mean blood pressure and a sample standard deviation.
• “You think reality for each month should be a normal distribution
with a mean blood pressure that equals the average of the 25 mean
blood pressures.
• You also think that for each month, this normal distribution should
have a standard error based on the average sample standard
deviation across the 25 months.
• How likely is your observed mean in month 4 of 220 if the average
mean across the 25 months was 120?
• How many standard errors is 220 away from 120? What is the
probability of being at least that many standard errors away from
120?
Welcome to the Shewart Control
Chart
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
.
.
.
25
120
Anatomy of the control chart:
From Amin, 2001 Indian Health Service, DHHS

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Introduction to Statistical

The mean of 4, 7, 8 , and 2 is equal to:

Zero means person did not get sick.

Proportion= n/N, where n=number of people who got sick and

In simple statistical process control, we deal

The Normal Distribution

The average squared deviation!

The square root of the average squared deviation!

• Estimate the standard deviation of the

How is this different from the Population Standard

How is this different from the Sample Standard

You can convert any group of numbers to z-scores.

• Let’s focus on p-values for now.

Here is the mean we observed

From Amin, 2001 Indian Health Service, DHHS

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