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    Global

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    Rahul Nampalliwar
    The document outlines a model to assess the impact of policies on atmospheric carbon and global temperature change. It summarizes the model structure and inputs, which include factors that influence the carbon cycle and climate properties. The model predicts that under a policy reducing population growth, energy usage, and increasing forestation and phytoplankton, atmospheric carbon will reach 1150 parts per million and temperature will rise 1.7 degrees Celsius over 1000 years. The predicted exposure is deemed acceptable by the modeler.

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    Global

    Uploaded by

    Rahul Nampalliwar
    36 views39 pages
    The document outlines a model to assess the impact of policies on atmospheric carbon and global temperature change. It summarizes the model structure and inputs, which include factors that influence the carbon cycle and climate properties. The model predicts that under a policy reducing population growth, energy usage, and increasing forestation and phytoplankton, atmospheric carbon will reach 1150 parts per million and temperature will rise 1.7 degrees Celsius over 1000 years. The predicted exposure is deemed acceptable by the modeler.

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    The document outlines a model to assess the impact of policies on atmospheric carbon and global temperature change. It summarizes the model structure and inputs, which include factors that influence the carbon cycle and climate properties. The model predicts that under a policy reducing population growth, energy usage, and increasing forestation and phytoplankton, atmospheric carbon will reach 1150 parts per million and temperature will rise 1.7 degrees Celsius over 1000 years. The predicted exposure is deemed acceptable by the modeler.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    36 views39 pages

    Global

    Uploaded by

    Rahul Nampalliwar
    The document outlines a model to assess the impact of policies on atmospheric carbon and global temperature change. It summarizes the model structure and inputs, which include factors that influence the carbon cycle and climate properties. The model predicts that under a policy reducing population growth, energy usage, and increasing forestation and phytoplankton, atmospheric carbon will reach 1150 parts per million and temperature will rise 1.7 degrees Celsius over 1000 years. The predicted exposure is deemed acceptable by the modeler.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    of 39

    Global Warming Policy

    Objective
    To model the impact of various factors on atmospheric carbon and temperature change; to assess alternative policies altering these factors; and to select an optimal policy.

    Structure of the Analysis


    Introduction

    Identification Exposure Assessment Exposure-Response Assessment Risk Characterization Policy Jusitification

    Hazard

    Introduction: The Issue


    The

    carbon cycle (its transfer and transformation in the environmental system) is perturbed by human activities This perturbation results in an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over time This increase results in increased absorption of solar radiation in the atmosphere

    Introduction (continued)
    This

    increase in radiation absorption increases the temperature of the atmosphere (or does it??) This increased temperature alters the climate (or does it??) This alteration of climate produces unacceptable loss of value (or does it??) Policies can prevent this loss of value.

    Hazard Identification
    If global warming did occur, what are some of the possible effects and how well are these established?

    Properties of Climate
    Thermal

    (temperature of air, water, ice and

    land) Kinetic (wind, ocean and ice currents) Aqueous (air moisture and hydrologic cycle) Static (pressure and density of air; composition of the atmosphere)

    Definitions
    Climatic

    State- the average and variability of each property from the previous slide, given over space and time Climatic Variation- the difference between climatic states at two related points in time (e.g. two Januaries)

    Definitions (contd)
    Climatic

    Variability- the variance over some defined period of time (e.g. monthly over the past 1000 years). Climatic Anomaly- the deviation of a climatic state at some period of time from that which is typical at that period (e.g. an extreme January).

    Factors Affecting Climate


    Shape,

    location and scale of ocean circulation Amount and location of ice (Cryosphere) Amount of clouds (reflected radiation and absorption of radiation) Amount of incoming solar radiation

    Continued
    Composition

    of atmosphere (greenhouse gases; particles; water vapor) from anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic sources; Composition of biota (flora, fauna, microbes) Extent of evaporation Albedo of the lands surface

    It is well established that atmospheric carbon has increased significantly over the past century
    See Figures 11-14 and 11-15

    As have other greenhouse gases


    See Figures 11-17 for nitrous oxide, 11-19 for methane and 11-21 for CFCs

    The Temperature has Changed Dramatically Over Time


    See Figure 11-11 in Text. Note the temperature swings of up to 10 degrees C, but less than 2 degrees C in the recent past

    Evidence for this Change:


    sediments Ancient soil composition Layered Ice Cores Positions of Ice Sheets Tree Rings Written records and artwork
    Ocean

    Temperature Change is Associated with:


    Change

    in Ice Coverage Change in amount of water in oceans (related to above). Prediction of several cm per degree C increase in temperature due to ice melt and expansion of heated water. Crop shift to higher latitudes in the North and higher altitudes.

    Continued
    Increase

    in wind energy and patterns (cell flow) due to change in differential heating over the earths surface. Change in precipitation patterns (see Figure 11-26) and soil moisture. Change in crop productivity due to change in precipitation patterns (some areas improve, some decline).

    Continued
    Salt

    water intrusion into groundwater supplies. Displacement of populations from coasts (sea level and storm surges). Loss of sanitation near coast. Glaciers recede

    But is any of this due to increased carbon in the atmosphere?


    There has been an apparent pattern of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and temperature (see Figure 11-9 in text) There has been a measured 0.5 degrees C increase in temperature since the industrial revolution

    But there also are distinct arguments against this:


    The

    bulk of the recent increase came between 1910 and 1940, before the most rapid carbon rise (consider volcanic emissions and sulfates). Could be an incorrect comparison of temperature records due to locations and methods.

    Continued
    Could

    simply be the Milankovitch Cycle (see Figure 11-8 in text) related to eccentricity of orbit, tilt of the earth and time of perihelion). There are negative feedback mechanisms not currently incorporated in models (e.g. cloud cover)

    Feedback Mechanisms
    Temperature

    increases, water vapor increases, albedo of atmosphere increases, temperature goes down (negative). Temperature increases, microbial growth increases, decay of plants increases, atmospheric carbon goes up, temperature goes up (positive).

    Feedback (contd)
    Atmospheric

    carbon goes up, plants grow, rate of transfer from atmosphere to flora goes up, carbon goes down, temperature goes down (negative). Temperature goes up, ice caps melt revealing dark rock, albedo of surface goes down, temperature goes up (positive)

    Feedback (contd)
    Temperature

    goes up, more freshwater in oceans, ocean circulation pattern slows, northern Europe gets colder (negative) but equator warms (positive). Temperature goes up, ocean phytoplankton grow, rate of transfer of carbon from atmosphere to ocean goes up, atmospheric carbon goes down, temperature goes down (negative).

    Feedback (contd)
    Temperature

    increases, temperature differential between regions increases, wind increases, more salt swept from ocean to atmosphere, more light reflected, albedo goes up, temperature decreases (negative). Temperature increases, less fuel used in winter (stops onset of ice age), less carbon in atmosphere, temperature decreases (negative)

    The predicted heating, if it occurs, probably would not be uniform over the earth
    See Figure 11-25 and consider local factors controlling the microclimate

    Exposure Assessment
    Under any given policy which alters the factors controlling atmospheric carbon, what will be the amount of atmospheric carbon after 1000 years? or Under any given policy, what will be the impact on loss of value?

    The Conceptual Model

    Factors Adjusted from Baseline


    Kbr

    set to 0.1, so population is under control in 20 years. Existential energy needs for developed world dropped to current underdeveloped world values for transportation and commerce. 10% of barren land changed to deciduous forest. Ocean phytoplankton increased 5%.

    Predicted Increase in Atmospheric Carbon

    Exposure-Response Assessment
    What is the relationship between exposure (the amount of atmospheric carbon at 1000 years) and response (the temperature increase)?

    Intensity from the sun (watts/m2)

    Fraction reflected by the atmosphere

    Fraction entering the atmosphere

    Fraction reaching the earth's surface

    Fraction absorbed in the atmosphere

    Fraction reflected at the surface

    Fraction absorbed at the surface

    Fraction reaching space

    Fraction absorbed in the atmosphere

    Fraction back out as radiation

    Fraction back out as air currents, etc

    Fraction reaching space

    Fraction absorbed in the atmosphere

    Exposure-Response Curve

    Risk Characterization
    What is the predicted exposure (amount of atmospheric carbon) and response (temperature increase) under my selected policy?

    How confident am I in these predictions?

    My predicted exposure is 1150 BMT at 1000 years, with a temperature increase of 1.7 degrees C

    Policy Justification
    I

    have used a simplified model of the interactions between major components of the environmental system. This model predicts my policy will result in a level of atmospheric carbon of 1150 BMT after 1000 years if nothing in the model changes during that time.

    Policy Justification (contd)


    The

    model predicts a temperature increase of 2 degrees C over 1000 years. This amount of atmospheric carbon and temperature increase are acceptable. I have reasonable confidence in the predictions of the model, at least in the sense of being conservative. The policy is acceptable (feasible??).

    Why do I think I my selection is rational?


    I

    have incorporated many of the features of the environmental system, including the climate system, into my model (ontological) I have used these features in a mathematical model and applied correct mathematical procedures to develop predictions (logical) I have used a correct procedure (literature review) to develop parameter values (methodological)

    Rational? (contd)
    I

    have considered reasons for uncertainty in the model and parameter values (epistemological) My analysis was performed within time deadlines (practical); although I did not consider policy feasibility!! My goals were defined (valuational) I understand the meaning of all of the terms I have employed (conceptual clarity)

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