SIMULATION TOOL AND TECHNIQUE, INPUT MODELLING

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Presented by
PRAGATI RANA 112008 PRAKASH CHANDRA BHARTI 112009 SOHAIL KHAN 112016

M.Tech. 3rd Semester

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Jaypee University of Engineering And Technology

Guna 2012

OUTLINE
Exordium Historical Background Simulation Tools and Techniques Application Areas of Simulation Classification of Simulation Discrete Event Simulation Features Provided by Language Simulation Language Verification and Validation Input Modelling

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CONTENT COVERAGE
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PRAGATI RANA

P. C. BHARTI

Input Modelling

Exordium Historical Background Simulation Tools and Techniques Application Areas of Simulation Classification of Simulation

Discrete Event Simulation Features Provided by Language Simulation Language Verification and Validation

SOHAIL KHAN

EXORDIUM
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o What is Mathematical Modelling? Models describe our belief, how the real world functions. In mathematical modelling we translate those beliefs into the language of beliefs.

Advantage:

Mathematics is very precise language. This helps us to formulate ideas and identify underlying assumptions.

Mathematics is a concise language with well defined rules for manipulation.

All results that mathematics have proved over hundreds of year are at our disposal.
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Computers can be used to perform numerical calculation.

... EXORDIUM CONTD.

Steps For Mathematical Modelling

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Identify the real problem

Formulate the Mathematical Problem Obtain the Mathematical Solution of the Model Interpret the Mathematical Solution Compare with reality

Write a report and / or present the result.

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NEED FOR SIMULATION

Motivation: An organisation realised that for the improvement in the performance of the system they have to see and experiment with the real system, through the observation and aid to statistics to reach valid conclusion towards future system improvements.

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Improvement can be done by the help of system modelling equations through analytical or numerical methods but the model may be too difficult for the complex system.

In this extreme situation people use simulation technique for the improvement, and now it has become common practice .
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ESSENTIALLY SIMULATION CONSISTS OF

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o Building a computer model that consist of or that describes the behaviour of system. o Experimenting with this model to reach conclusions that support decisions.

o Once we have a computer simulation model of the actual system, we need to generate values for the random quantities that are part of the system input (to the model).

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
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Simulation has come a long way since 1964, started at

Sperry Gyroscope Co. at its site at Bracknell, Berkshire,

England.

The main activity was military simulation using valve

analog simulator.

Followed by a progression from analog to digital simulator via hybrid analog and digital systems, followed

by application in digital signal processing and the design

of several computers and back to simulation.
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CHALLENGES OF SIMULATION FOR QUANTUM SYSTEM AN EXAMPLE

What approximation come in. Computer time is limited > few particles for short periods of time. (space-time is 4d. Moores Law implies lengths and times will double every 6 years if O(N).) Systems with many particles and long time scales are problematical. Hamiltonian is unknown, until we solve the quantum many-body problem! How do we estimate errors? Statistical and systematic. How do we manage ever more complex codes?

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APPLICATION AREAS OF SIMULATION

o o o o

o
o o o o

Designing and analyzing manufacturing systems Evaluating military weapons systems or their logistics requirements Determining hardware requirements or protocols for communications networks Determining hardware and software requirements for a computer system Designing and operating transportation systems such as airports, freeways, ports, and subways Evaluating designs for service organizations such as call centers, fast-food restaurants, hospitals, and post offices Reengineering of business processes Determining ordering policies for an inventory system Analyzing financial or economic systems

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SYSTEM, MODEL AND SIMULATION

System:

A collection of entities (people, parts, messages,

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machines, servers, ) that act and interact together toward

some end (Schmidt and Taylor, 1970)

In practice, depends on objectives of study Might limit the boundaries (physical and logical) of the system Judgment call: level of detail (e.g., what is an entity?) Usually assume a time element dynamic system

State of a system:

Collection of variables and their values

necessary to describe the system at that time

Might depend on desired objectives, output performance measures Bank model: Could include number of busy tellers, time of arrival of each customer, etc.
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... CONTD.
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Types of systems

Discrete
State variables change instantaneously at separated points in time Bank model: State changes occur only when a customer arrives or departs

Continuous
State variables change continuously as a function of time Airplane flight: State variables like position, velocity change continuously

Many systems continuous

are

partly

discrete,

partly
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... CONTD.

Ways to study a system

System

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Experiment with the actual System

Experiment with the Model of the System

Physical model

Mathematical model

Analytical Solution

Simulation

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CLASSIFICATION OF SIMULATION
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Classification of simulation models

Static vs. dynamic Deterministic vs. stochastic Continuous vs. discrete

Most operational models are dynamic, stochastic, and discrete will be called discrete-event

simulation models
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SIMULATION VS ANALYTICAL MODELLING

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Advantage:

various performance measures

greater realism easier to understand model the steady-state as well as the transit behavior.

Disadvantage:

May not provide you with the optimal solution

time to construct model will be longer.
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SIMULATION VS PHYSICAL MODELLING

Advantage:

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High Speed Not disruptive Replication easy

Control variations
Generally less costly

Disadvantage:

Realism Validity
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STATIC VS DYNAMIC SIMULATION

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Definition:

static

simulation

model

is

representation of a system at a particular point in time.

We usually refer to a static simulation as a Monte Carlo simulation.

Definition: A dynamic simulation is a representation of

a system as it evolves over time.

Within these two classifications, a simulation may be deterministic or stochastic.

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DETERMINISTIC VS STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL

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A deterministic simulation model is one that

contains no random variables

A stochastic simulation model contains one or more random variables.

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CONTINUOUS AND DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION

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Continuous

event:

state of system changes continuously over time

Ex. Level of fluid in tank

Programming:

Advances time in small intervals. Use differential equations to represent flows.

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DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION

Discrete-event simulation: Modeling of a system as it evolves over time by a representation where the state variables change instantaneously at separated points in time
More precisely, state can change at only a countable number of points in time These points in time are when events occur Programming

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Look at system only when events occur; time is advanced from event to event.

Event: Instantaneous occurrence that may change the state of the system

Sometimes get creative about what an event is e.g., end of simulation, make a decision about a systems operation
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Can in principle be done by hand, but usually done on computer

EXAMPLE

To simulate a queuing system, we first have to describe

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it.

We assume arrivals are drawn from an infinite calling population.

There is unlimited waiting room capacity, and customers

will be serve in the order of their arrival (FCFS).

Arrivals occur one at a time in a random fashion.

All arrivals are eventually served with the distribution of

service teams.
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... CONTD.

Service times are also assumed to be random. After service, all customers return to the calling population.

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For this example, we use the following variables to define the state of the system: (1) the number of

customers in the system; (2) the status of the server

that is, whether the server is busy or idle; and (3)the time of the next arrival.

An event is defined as a situation that causes the state

of the system to change instantaneously.
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... CONTD.
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All the information about them is maintained in a list called the event list.

Time in a simulation is maintained using a variable called the clock time.

We begin this simulation with an empty system and arbitrarily assume that our first event, an arrival, takes place at clock time 0.

Next we schedule the departure time of the first customer.

Departure time = clock time now + generated service time
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... CONTD.

Also, we now schedule the next arrival into the system by randomly generating an inter-arrival time from the inter-arrival time distribution and setting the arrival time as
Arrival time = clock time now + generated inter-arrival time

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Both these events are their scheduled times are maintained on the event list.

This approach of simulation is called the next-event timeadvance mechanism, because of the way the clock time is

updated. We advance the simulation clock to the time of the

most imminent event.
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... CONTD.

As we move from event to event, we carry out the appropriate actions for each event, including any scheduling of future events.

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The jump to the next event in the next-event mechanism may be a large one or a small one; that is, the jumps in this method are variable in size.

We contrast this approach with the fixed-increment timeadvance method.

With this method, we advance the simulation clock in increments of t time units, where t is some appropriate time unit, usually 1 time unit.
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... CONTD.
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For most models, however, the next event mechanism

tends to be more efficient computationally.

Consequently, we use only the next-event approach for the development of the models for the rest of the

chapter.

To demonstrate the simulation model, we need to define several variables:

TM = clock time of the simulation AT = scheduled time of the next arrival

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... CONTD.
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DT = scheduled time of the next departure SS = status of the server (1=busy, 0=idle) WL = length of the waiting line MX = length (in time units) of a simulation run

We now begin the simulation by initializing all the

variables. This simple example illustrates some of the basic concepts in simulation and the way in which simulation can be used to analyze a particular problem.
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... CONTD.
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Example: Single-server queue Estimate expected average delay in queue (line, not service) State variables Status of server (idle, busy) needed to decide what to do with an arrival Current length of the queue to know where to store an arrival that must wait in line Time of arrival of each customer now in queue needed to compute time in queue when service starts Events Arrival of a new customer Service completion (and departure) of a customer Maybe end-simulation event (a fake event) whether this is an event depends on how simulation terminates (a modeling decision)

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WORLD VIEW THE STRUCTURE CONCEPTS AND

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VIEWS UNDER WHICH THE SIMULATION IS GUIDED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SIMULATION MODEL

Event Orientation defines the changes in state that occur at each event time Process Orientation describes the process through which the entities in the system flow

Activity Scanning Orientation describes the activities in which the entities in the system engage
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... CONTD.

Event scheduling
Write modules that describe changes in the state of the system at each event Main program advances time One subprogram for each event General purpose programming language

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Process interaction
Write modules that describe the progress of entities through the system As entities move the systems changes state Entities are held to represent activities and delays Pro-model programming language

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EVENT SCHEDULING
Time is advanced from event to event Future events list ordered list of upcoming events

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As events are scheduled, they are added to the list As events occur they are removed from list

Activities in event ( one / event type) List is required to keep track of entities in a set Statistics Two types

Sample statistics average of some values (W)

W = (W1 +W2 + +Wn)/n = Total Wait / # of wait L = (0(t1) + 1(t2-t1) + 2(t3-t2) + 1(t4-t3)) / t4
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Time average statistics time weighted (L)

ACTIVITY SCANNING
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Activity scanning

Time is modeled in fixed time increments to check if activity occurred

Small time increments is inefficient Large time increments may miss activity Describes the activities in which the entities in the

system engage.
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PROCESS ORIENTED

Process oriented:
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Many simulation models include elements which occur in defined patterns

The logic associated with such a system or events can be generalized and
defined by a single statement

A simulation language could then translate such statement into the appropriate sequence of events

describes the processes through which the entities in the system flow.
These statements, define a sequence of events which are automatically executed by the simulation language as the entities move through the process

Create arrival entities every t time units

However, since we are normally restricted to a set of standardized statement, provided by the simulation language, our model flexibility is not as great as with the event condition
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FEATURE PROVIDED BY LANGUAGE

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Conceptual

framework(entities,

attributes,

resource,

queues)

Maintenance of event list Random variable generation Animation Debugging function Output analysis Input analysis Report generation
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SIMULATION LANGUAGES
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One of the most important aspects of a simulation study is the

computer programming.

Several special-purpose computer simulation languages have been developed to simplify programming.

The best known and most readily available simulation

languages, includes GPSS, GASP IV and SLAM.

Most simulation languages use one of two different modeling approaches or orientations; event scheduling or process interaction.
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... CONTD.

GPSS uses the process-interaction approach. SLAM allows the modeler to use either approach or even a mixture of the two, whichever is the most appropriate for the model being analyzed.

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Of the general-purpose languages, FORTRAN is the most

commonly used in simulation.

In fact, several simulation languages, including GASP IV and SLAM, use a FORTRAN base.
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... CONTD.
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To use GASP IV we must provide a main program, an

initialization routine, and the event routines.

For the rest of the program, we use the GASP routines. Because of these prewritten routines, GASP IV provides a great deal of programming flexibility.

GPSS, in contrast to GASP, is a highly structured specialpurpose language.

GPSS does not require writing a program in the usual sense.

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... CONTD.
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Building a GPSS model then consist of combining these sets of blocks into a flow diagram so that it represents the path an entity takes as it passes through the system.

SLAM was developed by Pritsket and Pegden (1979). It allows us to develop simulation model as network

models, discrete-event models, continuous models, or

any combination of these.
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... CONTD.

The decision of which language to use is one of the

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most important that a modeler or an analyst must

make in performing a simulation study.

The simulation language offer several advantages.

The most important of these is that the specialpurpose languages provide a natural framework for simulation modeling and most of the features needed in programming a simulation model.
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VERIFICATION AND VALIDATION

Always assume that your assumption is invalid. Robert F. Tatman

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Good software engineering practices will result in fewer bugs

Top-down, modular design Assertions (anti-bugging)

Say, total packets = packets sent + packets received If not, can halt or warn

Structured walk-through Simplified, deterministic cases

Even if end-simulation will be complicated and non-deterministic, use simple repeatable values (maybe fixed seeds) to debug
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Tracing (via print statements or debugger)

... VERIFICATION CONTD.

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Continuity tests

Slight change in input should yield slight change in output, otherwise error
Thrput
Thrput

(Undebugged)

(Debugged)

Degeneracy tests

Try extremes (lowest and highest) since may reveal bugs

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... VERIFICATION CONTD.

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Consistency tests similar inputs produce similar outputs

Ex: 2 sources at 50 pkts/sec produce same total as 1 source at 100 pkts/sec

Seed independence random number generator starting value should not affect final conclusion

(maybe

individual

output,

but

not

overall
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conclusion)

VALIDATION

Ensure assumptions used are reasonable

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Want final simulated system to be like real system

Unlike verification, techniques to validate one simulation may be different from one model to another Three key aspects to validate:

Assumptions Input parameter values and distributions Output values and conclusions
Expert intuition Real system measurements Theoretical results
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Compare validity of each to one or more of:

... CONTD.
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Most practical, most common Brainstorm with people knowledgeable in area Assumptions validated first, followed soon after by input. Output validated as soon as output is available (and verified), even if preliminary Present measured results and compare to simulated results (can see if experts can tell the difference)

Which alternative looks invalid? Why?

Throughput
0.2

0.4

0.8

Packet Loss Probability

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MODEL VALIDATION TECHNIQUE REAL SYSTEM MEASURMENTS

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Most reliable and preferred

May be unfeasible because system does not exist or too expensive

to measure

That could be why simulating in the first place!

But even one or two measurements add an enormous amount to the validity of the simulation

Should

compare

input

values,

output

values,

workload

characterization

Use multiple traces for trace-driven simulations

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Can use statistical techniques (confidence intervals) to determine if simulated values different than measured

MODEL VALIDATION TECHNIQUE THEORETICAL RESULTS

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Can be used to compare a simplified system with simulated results

May not be useful for sole validation but can be used to complement
measurements or expert intuition

Ex: measurement validates for one processor, while analytic model validates for many processors

Note, there is no such thing as a fully validated model

Would require too many resources and may be impossible Can only show is invalid

Instead, show validation in a few select cases, to lend confidence to the overall model results
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INPUT MODELLING

You make custom Widgets How do you model the input process? Is it deterministic? Is it random? Look at some data

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ORDERS

1/5/2004 1/12/2004 1/20/2004 1/29/2004

2/3/2004 3/6/2004 2/15/2004 3/15/2004 2/19/2004 3/27/2004 2/25/2004 3/31/2004 2/28/2004

4/10/2004 4/14/2004 4/17/2004 4/21/2004 4/22/2004 4/28/2004

5/2/2004 5/3/2004 5/24/2004 5/26/2004

Now what?

6/4/2004 6/15/2004

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HISTOGRAM
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7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

[0 ,2 ]

[2 ,4 ]

[4 ,6 ]

[6 ,7 ]

[8 ,1 0]

[1 0, 12 ] [1 2, 14 ] [1 4, 16 ] [1 6, 18 ] [1 8, 20 ]

OTHER OBSERVATIONS

Trend?

Stationary or non-stationary process May require multiple processes

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Seasonality

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CHOICES FOR MODELLING

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Use the data directly (trace-driven simulation) Use the data to fit an empirical distribution Use the data to fit a theoretical distribution

ASSUMPTIONS
oTo fit a distribution, the data should be drawn from IID observations oCould it be from more than one distribution? oStatistical test oIs it independent?
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ABSENCE OF DATA
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We have assumed that we had data to fit a distribution

Sometimes no data is available

Try to obtain minimum, maximum, and mode and/or

mean of the distribution

Documentation SMEs
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TRIANGULAR DISTRIBUTION
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SYMMETRIC BETA DISTRIBUTIONS

a=b=2 a=b=3
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a=b=5

a=b=10

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SKEWED BETA DISTRIBUTION

a=2, b=4
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BENEFITS OF FITTING A PARAMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

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We have focused mainly on the approach where we fit a distribution to data

Benefits:

Fill in gaps and smooth data Make sure tail behavior is represented

Extreme events are very important to the simulation but may not be represented

Can easily incorporate changes in the input process

Change mean, variability, etc.

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Reflect dependencies in the inputs

WHAT ABOUT DEPENDENCIES

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Assumed so far an IID process

Many processes are not:

A customer places a monthly order. Since the customer keeps inventory of the product, a large order is often followed by a small order

A distributor with several warehouses places monthly orders, and these warehouses can supply the same customers The behavior of customers logging on to a web site depends on

age, gender, income, and where they live

Do not ignore it!

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SOLUTIONS
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customer places a monthly order.

Should use a time-series model that captures the autocorrelation

distributor with several warehouses

Need a vector time-series model

Customers

logging on to a web site

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Need a random vector model where each component may have a different distribution

TAXONOMY OF INPUT MODELS

Examples of models
Univariate Time-independent Multivariate
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Discrete Continuous Mixed Discrete Continuous Mixed

Binomial, etc. Normal, gamma, beta, etc. Empirical/Trace-driven Independent binomial Multivariate normal Bivariate-exponential

Discrete-state Markov chains (stationary?)

Discrete-time

Cont.-state
Stochastic Processes
Continuous-time

Time-series models Poisson process (stationary?) Markov process

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Discrete-state
Cont.-state

WHAT IF IT CHANGES OVER TIME

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Do not ignore it! Non-stationary input process Examples:

Arrivals of customers to a restaurant

Arrivals of email to a server Arrivals of bug discovery in software

Could model as nonhomogeneous Poisson process

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IS DATA REALITY
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Data

is often

Distorted
Poorly communicated, mistranslated or recorded Data is always old by definition Some of the data is often missing Often only summaries, or collected at certain times This may all be on purpose!

Dated

Deleted

Dependent

Deceptive

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PROBLEMS WITH FITTING

Fitting an input distribution can be misleading for numerous

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reasons

There is rarely a theoretical justification for the distribution. Simulation is often sensitive to the tails and this is where the problem is!

Selecting the correct model is futile

The model gives the simulation practitioner a false sense of

the model being well-defined

ALTERNATIVE

Use empirical/trace-driven simulation when there is sufficient

data Treat other cases as if there is no data, and use beta distribution
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RANDOM NUMBER GENERATION

Any simulation with random components requires generating a sequence of

numbers

random

E.g., we have talked about arrival times, service times being drawn from a particular distribution

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We do this by first generating a random number (uniform between [0,1]) and then
transforming it appropriately

THREE ALTERNATIVES

True random numbers

Throw a dice Not possible to do with a computer

Pseudo-random numbers

Deterministic sequence that is statistically indistinguishable from a random sequence

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Quasi-random numbers

A regular distribution of numbers over the desired interval

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?

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Validity

The simulation model may not be valid due to cycles and dependencies in the model

Precision

You can improve the output analysis by carefully

choosing the random numbers

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PSEUDO-RANDOM NUMBERS

Want an iterative algorithm that outputs numbers on a fixed

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interval

When we subject this sequence to a number of statistical test, we

cannot distinguish it from a random sequence

In reality, it is completely deterministic

LINEAR CONGRUENTIAL GENERATORS (LCG)

Introduced in the early 50s and still in very wide use today Recursive formula

Z i ( aZ i 1 c) mod m a multiplier c increment m modulus Z 0 seed

Every number is determined by these four values

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GENERATING RANDOM VARIATES

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Say we have fitted an exponential distribution to inter-arrival times of customers.

Every time we anticipate a new customer arrival (place an arrival even on the events list), we need to generate a realization of of the arrival times

Know how to generate unit uniform. Can we use this to generate exponential? (And other distributions)

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TWO TYPES OF APPROACH

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Direct

Obtain an analytical expression Inverse transform

Requires inverse of the distribution function

Composition & Convolution

For special forms of distribution functions

Indirect

Acceptance-rejection
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CONCLUSION
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The historical background, need, and modelling of simulation, simulation tool, technique and input modelling are discussed in this presentation.

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THANK YOU
VALUABLE SUGGESTIONS

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