Impact of GST On Indian Automotive Supply Chain: Submitted To Prof: Samir K. Srivastava
Impact of GST On Indian Automotive Supply Chain: Submitted To Prof: Samir K. Srivastava
Impact of GST On Indian Automotive Supply Chain: Submitted To Prof: Samir K. Srivastava
Table of Contents
What is GST? ........................................................................................................................................................................... 3 How GST Will Work? ............................................................................................................................................................... 3 GST and Present System of VAT .............................................................................................................................................. 4 Impact of GST on Various Sectors ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Taxes to be subsumed under the GST .................................................................................................................................... 4 Challenges of the proposed GST model .................................................................................................................................. 5 Automobile Industry Overview and Trends ............................................................................................................................ 5 Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................. 6 Yearly-Analysis .................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Production Trend ................................................................................................................................................................ 6 Domestic and Exports sales trend....................................................................................................................................... 6 Demand-supply mismatch .................................................................................................................................................. 7 Capacity addition ................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Challenges in the Automobile Industry............................................................................................................................... 8 Trends Impacting Supply chain ........................................................................................................................................... 8 Demand side trends ........................................................................................................................................................ 8 Supply side trends ........................................................................................................................................................... 9 Impact of GST on Auto Sector ........................................................................................................................................... 10 Impact of GST on used-car market ................................................................................................................................... 12 Impact of GST on Supply Chain ............................................................................................................................................. 13 Impact of Removed Tax Barriers on Cross-border Sales....................................................................................................... 14 Network Re-engineering ....................................................................................................................................................... 14 Impact on Warehousing ........................................................................................................................................................ 15 Impact on Service Level ........................................................................................................................................................ 15 Recommendations to firms................................................................................................................................................... 16 Recommendations to policy makers..................................................................................................................................... 16 References ............................................................................................................................................................................ 16
What is GST?
Goods and Service Tax is a tax on goods and services, which is leviable at each point of sale or provision of service, in which at the time of sale of goods or providing the services the seller or service provider can claim the input credit of tax which he has paid while purchasing the goods or procuring the service. On most of the goods and services the rate of tax remains the same but as per the necessity of the nation some goods or services can be declared as exempted or Zero rated. The whole system is developed in such a way that it avoids the cascading effect and the final consumer bears the burden of all the tax. Generally, in such a system Exports are zero rated and all the taxes paid while purchasing and manufacturing the goods including the taxes paid on raw material and services are returned to the exporter to make the exports competitive. The sellers or service providers collect the tax from their customer, who may or may not be the ultimate customer, and before depositing the same to the exchequer, they deduct the tax they have already paid. This is simply very similar to VAT which is at present applicable in most of the states and can be termed as National level VAT on Goods and Services with only one difference that in this system not only goods but also services are involved and the rate of tax on goods and services are generally the same.
Service Tax Additional Customs Duty, commonly known as Countervailing Duty (CVD) Special Additional Duty of Customs - 4% (SAD) Surcharges Cesses
The following state taxes will also be subsumed under the GST: i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. VAT / Sales tax Entertainment tax (unless it is levied by the local bodies). Luxury tax Taxes on lottery, betting and gambling. State Cesses and Surcharges in so far as they relate to supply of goods and services. Entry tax not in lieu of Octroi
vehicle have been increased by 2%. The buoyant automobile industry is set to slow down, relatively, and register a growth rate in low double-digits in 2010-11, primarily due to the high base effect of 2010-11. During 2009-10, Commercial Vehicle segment has recorded the highest growth percentage of 38.30% to 531395 units followed by Two-Wheeler at 26.00% at 0.93 million units. Passenger Vehicles and Three wheeler sales have been increased by 25.60% and 25.90% respectively. The growth of the Indian middle class along with the growth of the economy over the past few years has attracted global auto majors to the Indian market. The attractiveness of the Indian markets on one hand and the stagnation of the auto sector in markets such as Europe, US and Japan on the other have resulted in shifting of new capacities and flow of capital to the Indian automobile industry.
Overview
The automobile industry in India happens to be the ninth largest in the world. Following Japan, South Korea and Thailand, in 2010, India emerged as the fourth largest exporter of automobiles. Several Indian automobile manufacturers have spread their operations globally as well, asking for more investments in the Indian automobile sector by the MNCs. Indian auto industry, which is currently growing at the pace of around 18% per annum, has become a hot destination for global auto players like Volvo, General Motors and Ford. The Indian automobile industry is going through a phase of rapid change and high growth. With new projects coming up on a regular basis, the industry is undergoing technological change. The major players are expanding their plants and focusing on mass customization, mass production.
Yearly-Analysis
The industry demand is directly proportional to the population. Presently in India there are 100 people per vehicle. Indian automotive industry is strong and productive sector for the economy growth. It gives nearly 5% of the employment to the countrys population. Continue improving quality results in exports of automobile and ancillary industry is boosting out the demand in oversees business. The Indian auto-players are expanding their presence in overseas market. In the last 5 years the foreign investment in this sector nearly doubled.
Production Trend
The Indian automotive industry face a tough time during FY08 and its production were almost stagnated. From the early FY09, the industry started showing marginal growth in terms of production and reached to 14.04 million units till FY10. Due to the huge insist in the domestic market companys sale nearly 88% of their total production in the country and rest 12% vehicles they export.
depended on the foreign auto parts, but due to the increase of the global players in the country and establishing the plants ended painless move to the Indian auto-players.
Demand-supply mismatch
The new capacity addition till 2012, may anticipate a demand and supply mismatch in the short term. Demand is only expected to grow by 10-12% every year. In 2009-10 the domestic auto industry was utilizing 80-85% of its capacity, but this may drop to 65% by 2012. India may be in a similar position in 2012 as the global auto industry is in right now. The global capacity utilization in 2009-10 was around 65%, down from 80% in 200809. In the near future it is expected that there will be a Demand and supply mismatch.
Capacity addition
The existing players in the market are expected to add 0.9 million units to the 2.6 million units capacity of the passenger vehicle segment and 0.6 million units to the 0.75 million units capacity of the commercial vehicle segment. Meanwhile, global automakers who currently only assemble in India, are expected to set up production units, in order to be more competitive with local players. With the demand in the domestic auto market posting an exponential growth in 2009-10 versus the faint international scenario, most manufacturers are concentrating on markets such as India and China for growth. In compact car segment, new cars such as the Volkswagen Polo, Ford Figo, and Nissan Micra are launched. Meanwhile, in the commercial vehicle segment, the LCV and the heavy trucks are expected to get a major boost. As far as LCVs are concerned, players such as Mahindra & Mahindra, Ashok Leyland-Nissan and General Motors-SAIC are expected to enter with new products, while nearly all major truck makers such as Tata Motors, Mahindra, Ashok Leyland and Volvo-Eicher are launching a new heavy duty multi-axle truck range.
Uneven Growth - The demand for cars is growing, stemming in large part from China, India, and Eastern Europe. Established automotive markets in the United States, Western Europe, and Japan, however, are flat to declining. This uneven growth raises implications for the supply chain. For one, OEMs and their tier-1 suppliers must establish a local presence to benefit from these new growth opportunities in emerging economies. They must also tap into the local supply base to take advantage of cost levels and to fulfill local content requirements. At the same time, they must integrate local operations into their global supply chain management systems and programs. For example, sourcing processes from local suppliers must be aligned with global quality-assurance guidelines and procedures. Fragmentation - Traditional car segments such as sedans, vans, hatchbacks, and pick-up trucks are fragmenting more and more into niches. Derivative car segments, on the other handsuch as minivans, and two-seaters, as well as cross-over vehicles such as, SUV coupes, and sport vansare growing. A combination of customer demand for personalizationthe right product for their specific use at the right timeand manufacturers conquering new customer segments is causing automakers to grow their product offerings. The environmental or green movement is encouraging fragmentation even further, by shifting demand away from large and/or high-consumption vehicles to smaller and/or more fuel-efficient cars, giving birth to even newer segments, such as city or microcars2, and new propulsion technologies, such as hybrids, clean diesels, and diesel hybrids. Despite measures to control incremental costs resulting from fragmentationsuch as platform, module, and component sharing across models and brand, segmentation results in a more complex supply chain that needs to
be managed. Hence, the supply chain requires integrated capabilities and flexible tools based on real-time information to address this increasing complexity. For example, using an identical gearbox in two different car models does not prevent the manufacturer and its supplier from having to manage the supply chain process on a transparent basis to ensure on-time delivery of the specific gearbox to the specific assembly line in the specific location. Accelerated Volatility - In the past, forecasting new product demand was easy. Today, new cars that initially sell well may lose ground within as little as two years. Shifts in customer demandfrom product to product, from brand to brand, and from segment to segmentare accelerating. Customers have more choices than before, want more personalization, and, in general, enter the showroom better informed. As a consequence, customer loyalty is decreasingacross all segments and across all manufacturers. The supply chain, therefore, must cater to these shifts through quicker responsiveness and overall flexibility. Today, a higher degree of flexibility and responsiveness must be built in up front so that suppliers can react quickly when overall product volumes are not in line with plan, or when the mix within the product differs from original forecasts. Importance of Aftermarket - The aftermarket business is often a somewhat neglected area, even though it typically generates the largest share of OEM and dealer profits. Managing this business depends on processes and IT systems that let manufacturers track product in the following areas: Saleswhich product is selling, and at which price? Channelsthrough which channels is product being sold? Replenishmentwhat are the products replenishment cycles? Customerswhich kinds of customers are buying which kinds of products? Creating transparency in the aftermarket business both in sales and in operations of the business and value chain is an important way for automakers to defend this source of revenue and profit against independent parts and service suppliers.
Supply side trends
Differentiated Outsourcing - Differences in labor costs and disadvantages in scale and scope are influencing outsourcing to continue. Outsourcing will create opportunities for both automotive suppliers and supply chain management providers (such as logistics companies and IT firms) to expand their businesses into adjacent areasfor example, preassembly or management and quality control. To benefit from continued outsourcing, supply chain management providers must offer flexible, modular solutions because not every manufacturer will concentrate on the same core capabilities and functions. Low-Cost-Country Sourcing - The auto industry will continue to source from low-cost countries as manufacturers and suppliers continue to complement their commodities with more complex products and
services. The lowest price, however, isnt everythingautomakers and suppliers must look at the total cost of sourcing, including logistics, quality of work, and management. This approach is referred to as best-costcountry sourcing, and for supply chain management providers represents another opportunity to encourage, enable, manage, and optimize sourcing. Risk Management - Most manufacturers agree that their supply chain risk has increased in recent years. Natural disasters, terrorism, workforce issues, and level of dependence on partners and suppliers are just some areas that require strong capabilities in risk management. Manufacturers and their suppliers must account for supply chain alternatives in their overall supply chain strategy. Increased transparency based on real-time information (see Transparency and Accountability section) allows them to identify risks early on and, ultimately, to manage them. This represents an opportunity for supply chain management providers to expand their value-added services. They have the opportunity to become risk-mitigation agents by ensuring the required transparency and by offering, for example, fall-back solutions or performance guarantees. Transparency/Accountability - Business operations are becoming more complex and global. Supply chains are turning into complex supply networks. As a consequence, auto manufacturers and suppliers need transparency and accountability across the entire supply network. For example, near-real-time information flow based on a sensor-driven supply chain across the extended enterprise is in high demand. Information should, ideally, flow in two directions to help ensure better and faster interactions within enterprises and among OEMs, suppliers, and supply chain management providers. At the same time, there is a focus on security across these complex information networks, led by the need to manage risks. The supply network has become very complex globally and is optimized to the penny. Because of this, automakers and suppliers cannot afford to go after breakdowns in the supply chain. Providers must deliver performance and output in a transparent mannerthey are now held accountable much more stringently than in the past, and are at risk when it comes to paying high penalties in case of nonperformance.
rising pressure to keep carbon dioxide emissions under check. However, there is no clarity on what happens to the customs duty. The expected GST is around 18% to 20% (taking CGST and SGST together). The better pricing of vehicles, which at present are victim to the complex taxation structure, is good news for all the potential buyers. On the flip side, GST also throws open the opportunity to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to improve margins through better supply chain management as they look at more real time deliveries. Presently, the OEMs look at stocking the vehicles in warehouses set up at various regions to avoid taxes every time the vehicle travels through states. The setting up and maintaining of the warehouse adds up to the cost to the OEM. Further, the cumbersome process at every state border delays the delivery of vehicles and adds up to the cost. GST will ease out the cumbersome process and make movement of vehicles quicker and simpler. The introduction of unified GST would bring VAT in its true sense. Presently the VAT system, basically can be called un-integrated GST, in the sense that at present goods and services are taxed separately. The taxable event under GST system will be the supply of goods and the supply of services. The current taxable event such as manufacture, sale of goods render of services will not be relevant under GST system. The prices of commodities are expected to come down in the long run as dealers pass on the benefits of reduced tax incidence to consumers by slashing the prices of goods. Being consumption based tax; dual GST will result in better revenue collection for states with higher consumption of goods and services. This is been explained with an example. (Assuming CSGT at 12% and SGST at 8%)
(A) Goods-Producer to Whole-Seller Cost of Production Add: Producers margin of profit Producers basic price Add: Central Excise duty @ 8% Add: Service Tax @ 10% on Transportation & Job work paid
16500/NIL
NIL 14400/-
Add: State GST @ 8% Total Price (B) Goods Whole-Seller to Retailer Cost of goods to the Whole-seller Add: Profit margin @ 10% Total Add: Value Added Tax @ 12.5% Add: Central GST @ 12% Add: State GST @ 8% (C) Goods-Retailer to Final Consumer Cost of goods to the Retailer Add: Profit margin @ 20% Total Add: Value Added Tax @ 12.5% Add: Central GST @ 12% Add: State GST @ 8% Total Price to the final Consumer
NIL 148500/-
9600/144000/-
132000/13200/145200/1650/NIL NIL
120000/12000/132000/NIL 1440/960/-
132000/26400/158400/NIL 3120/2112/163632/-
There was a SIAM (Society of Indian Manufacturers) panel set up for this in 2010 to come out with recommendation as to what should be the GST rate so that the used-car market is not adversely affected.
There are two possible scenarios through which tax barriers would be removed: i. Scenario 1: CST rates would reduce to zero with no carry-over of input credit across states ii. Scenario 2: Stock-transfers are disallowed/taxed and inter-state sales are taxed with carryover allowed In both cases, companies would no longer be required to have a warehouse in every state just to facilitate stock transfers and avoid CST.
Network Re-engineering
As discussed before an optimum network design post GST would be different from an optimum network design in todays taxation scenario. The re-organized network will in fact be significantly different. The move towards fewer warehouses would require many warehouses to combine, close and re-locate Required capacity of many warehouses will undergo changes. With fewer warehouses, the average size of the warehouse will go up Hubs are not directly impacted by CST considerations. However, fewer & larger warehouses may make it feasible to route plant production directly to warehouses rather than through hubs, due to larger throughputs. Thus, the size and number of hubs could get affected The linkages between factories-hubs-warehouses-customers for various products will get re-aligned
Following figure lists all the pros and cons of doing a network re-engineering exercise for GST. Clearly, the benefits outweigh the disadvantages. Besides providing a simpler and more manageable network fewer warehouses would mean a straight saving on warehousing costs.
The safety stock requirement would also go down. Prima-facie, it would appear that some of these savings would be offset by the increased cost of freight. With fewer intermediate stocking points (warehouses) between sources and customers, the average freight legs should get longer. However, thismight not necessarily always be true as the network linkages of source-warehouse-customer could actually get shorter by removal of inter-state sale barriers. Freight distance saving translates directly into freight cost saving.
Impact on Warehousing
New or enlarged warehouses will have to be designed/re-designed. Thus, modernization of key warehouses is strongly recommended on account of: Large sizes, high throughputs and more complex operations Increasing level and variety of service required by customers, especially organized retailers Increasing scarcity of skilled labor and real estate requiring vertical and mechanized warehouses
items. With stock aggregated at fewer warehouses, the planning and assortment availability improves for slow moving SKUs. Thus, service to customers could be maintained or even improved in a network re-engineering exercise. The key here is to undertake a professional scientific exercise as opposed to manual experience based methods that many firms have used for designing their legacy networks.
Recommendations to firms
Firms should concentrate of re-organization of networks as the optimum network design post-GST would differ from the design in todays taxation scenario. Rather than small and many, firms should go for fewer and enlarged warehouses, redesigned for more complex operations and variety of service required by customers. Supply chain should now be designed not on tax considerations but purely on logistics cost and customer service considerations.
References
http://www.thehindubusinessline.in/2010/03/26/stories/2010032653980700.htm http://www.technopak.com/ http://www.siamindia.com http://www.cisco.com/