2a Lecture ExtGames BI&SPE
2a Lecture ExtGames BI&SPE
2a Lecture ExtGames BI&SPE
Raghul S Venkatesh
Parlor games (monopoly, take-away) and chess are some prominent examples where there
is sequential decisions
One of them (say, Incumbent or firm 2) is currently producing while the other (say, Entrant
or firm 1) wishes to enter
If the entrant decides to opt not to enter, then status quo prevails with realized payoffs
(1, 5) respectively
If the entrant chooses to enter, the incumbent decides whether to fight (e.g., predatory
pricing and undercutting) or cooperate
Fighting results in payoff (0, 0) and cooperating entails payoffs (2, 2) respectively to the
firms
Incumbent Out In
Fight Cooperate 2
1, 5
Fight Cooperate
Out 1, 5 1, 5
Entrant
In 0, 0 2, 2 0, 0 2, 2
(a) Normal Form (b) Extensive form
The incumbent would always prefer the entrant to stay out and enjoy monopoly profits (5
in this example)
Whether the entrant stays out depends on the incumbent’s strategy: If incumbent decides
to fight, then it is better for the entrant to stay out
Suppose both firms make their decisions simultaneously. The normal form game has two
pure strategy Nash equilibria:
In the normal form, an incumbent firm cannot reconsider her decision to fight or cooperate
in case an entrant firm chooses to enter
Notice that if the game is sequential, then the incumbent would prefer to cooperate with an
entrant rather than fight
Therefore the equilibrium (Out, Fight) is due to a “non-credible threat” by incumbent to fight
irrespective of the entry decision of firm 1
▶ After observing Player 1’s action, player two chooses between her actions A2
▶ If Player 1’s action is L, then player two chooses between actions {A, B}; if player 1’s
action is R, then both player 1 and 2 again choose one of two actions simultaneously:
player 1 between {X, Y} and player 2 between {C, D}
▶ Rules of the game (i.e., order of play, information sets of each player)
▶ Each subsequent node x ∈ X is of the form x = (a1 , a2 , ..., ak ) for finitely many actions
ai ∈ A
▶ If (a1 , a2 , ..., at ) ∈ X then so too is (a1 , a2 , ..., at−1 ), for all t > 1
Node or history is simply the set of actions taken so far in the game. Consequently,
A(x) ≡ {a ∈ A | (x, a) ∈ X}
5. A partition, I , of decision nodes X \ E such that if two nodes x′ and x′′ are in the same
element of the partition, then,
When this decision node is reached, player P(x) takes an action under the information
that the history is one of elements of I(x) (in the case of imperfect information, I(x)
may not be a singleton!)
Together,
Γ = ⟨(N, A), (X, E), (P, I), (ui )i∈N ⟩
is called a finite extensive form game
Out In
2
(1, 5)
Fight Cooperate
(0, 0) (2, 2)
Player 1
L R
Player 2 Player 2
a b a b
L R
2 2
A B C D
1
3, 2 6, 4
X Y X Y
3, 0 8, 5 4, 6 2, 1
In other words, (pure) strategy specifies actions for every contingency of the game, i.e., an
action at every information set of player i
Formally, a pure strategy in game Γ is a mapping si : Ii → A such that si (I(x)) ∈ A(x) for
all x such that P(x) = i
Player 1
L R
Player 3 Player 2
a b a b
Player 3 Player 3
2 −1 r r
0 5 l l
1 6
3 5 0 −2
1 4 − 1 2
2 4 7 0
What if P3 did not observe the actions of P2 in Example 3? How does it change the
strategies of the players?
Player 1
L R
Player 3 Player 2
a b a b
3
Player 3 Player 3
2 −1 r r
0 5 l l
1 6
3 5 0 −2
1 4 − 1 2
2 4 7 0
Notice that we have inadvertently converted an extensive form game into strategic form by
specifying the strategy set Si (which is of course different from action set Ai )
This means we can apply the notion of Nash equilibria to finite extensive form games – all
we require to do is specify strategy set of each player
A Nash equilibrium for the extensive form game Γ is simply a “joint strategy” that is a
Nash equilibrium of the strategic form of Γ
2, 0 0, 2
2,0 0,2
BF 3,3 3,3
▶ We first partition the decision nodes into information sets, and assign them to players
making the decision at any information set
▶ For each player, a pure strategy specifies an action at every information set where the
player is the decision maker
▶ Once strategies are specified, we can convert the extensive game into a normal
(strategic) form game and solve for the Nash equilibria
When players are perfectly informed of all actions taken previously then the information
sets are all singleton nodes (i.e., consisting of a single history of actions)
Backward induction (BI) procedure premises that when player clearly observes the future
order of play, they will choose an action that leads to the highest payoff
Intuitively, this implies solving the game backwards one step at a time starting from
penultimate nodes that lead to the terminal history
The diameter of a node x is the largest K such that there are actions a1 , a2 , ..., aK that lead to a
(terminal) node (x, a1 , a2 , ..., aK )
The diameter of a terminal node is zero; diameter of the null history (starting node) is the
number of actions in the longest history of the game
BI procedure first specifies an action for any player that moves at all of the nodes with
diameter 1
Suppose the total number of nodes of diameter 1 is n1 . Then the nodes of distance 1 can be
written as (xi1 )ni=1 1
At each of these nodes xi1 , the player P(xi1 ) is supposed to make a decision. Denote this
strategy as sP(xi ) (xi1 ) ∈ A(xi1 )
1
sP(xi ) (xi1 ) is the strategy of player P(xi1 ) at the history xi1 . This strategy (action) maximizes
1
the player’s payoff
We denote this utility as ui1 , i.e. the utility profile of node i of the ones that are at a diameter
of 1
Once the payoff vector for all the penultimate nodes are determined, u1 = (u11 , ..., un1 1 ),
remove those nodes and the actions that follow them.
And assign the payoff vector u1 to the respective nodes. This now shortens the length of
the game tree and makes this payoff vector the end nodes of Γ
Repeat the same process by assessing the nodes that are at a diameter 1 from these new
terminal nodes, until an action has been assigned to every decision node
1
A B
2
C D 3, 3
1
E F 1, 1
2, 0 0, 2
We can apply the BI procedure by starting at node where player 1 moves for the second
time
L R
2 2
A B A B
3 3 3 3
a b a b a b a b
8 6 5 2 7 3 1 0
3 5 8 7 6 4 0 1
4 10 3 5 8 2 2 −1
Two players sit across a table with two pots in front of them. In the beginning, one pot
contains two gold coins and other contains nothing.
Player 1 moves first. Each player has two actions available: continue (C) or stop (S).
If a player continues then a gold coin is added to each of the pots. If a player stops, he/she
gets the bigger pot for themselves.
At the end of three moves by each player, if the game has not been stopped, player 1 gets
the larger pot.
1 C 2 C 1 C 2 C 1 C 2 C
8, 6
S S S S S S
2, 0 1, 3 4, 2 3, 5 6, 4 5, 7
▶ If we were to reach the last round of the game, Player 2 would do better by choosing S
instead of C
▶ However, given that 2 will choose S, player 1 should choose S in the second to last
round, receiving 6 instead of 5
▶ Given that 1 would choose S in the second to last round, 2 would choose S in the third
to last round, receiving 5 instead of 4
▶ And so on.....
▶ At the beginning, Player 1 should choose to stop and receive 2 instead of getting 1 in
the second round
The SPE of the game is therefore S by both players at every history of the game. The
payoffs are (2, 0) respectively.
Raghul S Venkatesh Extensive Form Games 35 / 57
Imperfect Information and Subgame Perfection
OUT IN
1
3, 3
a b
2
A B A B
1, 3 0, 0 0, 0 3, 1
Clearly this is a game of imperfect information, i.e., there is at least one information set that
is a non-singleton. How do we analyze this game?
To understand the idea of Subgame Perfect equilibrium (SPE) we need an idea of what a
subgame is
Node y strictly follows a node x if y = (x, a1 , ..., am ) for some sequence of actions
a1 , a2 , ..., am ∈ A
Definition
A node x is said to define a subgame of Γ if whenever y weakly follows x and another node
z is in the IS containing y, then z also weakly follows x.
From the definition it is clear that for a node to begin a subgame, it must be a singleton, i.e.,
I(x) = {x}
Further, the definition also implies that every player at every turn subsequently knows
whether x has been reached in the game
L R
2 2
A B A B
3 3 3 3
a b a b a b a b
8 6 5 2 7 3 1 0
3 5 8 7 6 4 0 1
4 10 3 5 8 2 2 −1
L R
2 2
3 3
A B A B
a b a b a b a b
8 6 5 2 7 3 1 0
3 5 8 7 6 4 0 1
4 10 3 5 8 2 2 −1
A strategy profile s = (si )i∈N is a subgame perfect equilibrium of Γ if for every player i ∈ N
and every non-terminal node x for which P(x) = i,
where, the node (x, s) is a terminal node that follows from node x and strategy s
The difference between SPE and NE is the line “and every non-terminal node x for which
P(x) = i”
This implies that SPE requires a player’s strategy to be optimal after every history of the
game (given other players’ strategies)
NE on the other hand requires player’s strategies to be optimal only at the beginning of the
game
Requiring rationality at every stage of decision-making implies SPE is optimal even when a
history is not reached under a strategy profile
SPE idea is a refinement of the Nash equilibrium. Since the whole game is a subgame, a pure
strategy SPE is also a pure strategy NE
Intuitively, it follows that every subgame perfect equilibrium is a NE, but the converse is
not true (can you prove this?)
Definition
OUT IN
1
3, 3
a b
2
A B A B
1, 3 0, 0 0, 0 3, 1
We can still use backward induction in this game! We treat the subgame with simultaneous
moves as if it were a game in its own right
Z W
2 2
D C A B
1
3, 2 6, 4
X Y X Y
3, 0 8, 5 4, 6 2, 1
This game has similar features and can be analyzed using techniques used in the previous
problem. The only difference is that there is an additional subgame starting at player 2 on
the left node
OUT IN
2
1
2
L R
1
l r l r
0 3 −1 0
0 1 3 0
The subgame starting at player 2 has an unique pure strategy equilibrium (does it have a
mixed strategy equilibrium?): (L, r)
Pure strategy SPE may not always exist in extensive games. In order to characterize SPE in
the absence of pure strategies, one has to rely on randomization. A mixed strategy for
player i is a probability distribution over his pure strategies si ∈ Si
where σi (ai (ιi )) is the probability that player i plays action ai (ιi ) ∈ Ai (ιi ) in information set ιi
A subgame may not have a NE in pure strategies. In this case randomization by players
would allow for the existence of a SPE.
SPE requires not only that a NE profile of strategies be a combination of best responses on
the equilibrium path, but also consist of mutual best responses off the equilibrium path
This means during the course of the game players can choose different randomization
depending on which turn it is
OUT IN
2
1
2
L R
1
l r l r
0 4 2 0
2 1 1 3
In this subgame, there are no pure strategies. However, there is a mixed strategy
equilibrium in the subgame and this can be computed to solve the game backwards
OUT IN
2
1
2
q 1−q
1
p 1−p p 1−p
0 4 2 0
2 1 1 3
2 1 4 5
The mixed strategy solution is (p, q) = 3, 3 . The equilibrium payoff is 3, 3
OUT IN
∗∗
1, 2 4 5
3, 3
1
▶ Player 2 plays L (resp. R) with probability 3 (resp. 23 )
2
▶ Player 1 to play l (resp. r) with probability 3 (resp. 13 )
(0) (1)
2
1
2
1 2
3 3
1
2 1 2 1
3 3 3 3
0 4 2 0
2 1 1 3
NO
YES
1
1.5
1.5
O B
2
o b o b
2 0 0 1
1 0 0 2
L R
M
2 2
A B a b a b
1
3 1 1 3
l r l r 0 1 1 0
0 4 2 0
2 1 1 3
▶ We have already solved for the best-response functions of each firm by maximizing
their profit functions when each takes the other’s quantity as fixed (the
simultaneous-move game)
▶ We now change a small but important detail of the game and assume that player 1 will
choose q1 first, and that player 2 will observe the choice made by player 1 before it
makes its choice of q2 . What is the backward induction solution of this game?
▶ Game theoretic analysis to represent the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. The crisis started
with the United States’ discovery of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba, after which the
United States escalated the crisis by quarantining Cuba
▶ The USSR then backed down, agreeing to remove its missiles from Cuba, which
suggests that the United States had a credible threat along the lines of “if you don’t
back off we both pay dearly.” Could this indeed be a credible threat?
▶ To analyze this as a game, consider two superpowers, player 1 (the United States) and
player 2 (the USSR), that have engaged in a provocative incident
▶ The game starts with player 1’s choice to either ignore the incident (I), resulting in
maintenance of the status quo with payoffs (0, 0), or escalate the situation (E).
Following escalation by player 1, player 2 can back down (B), causing it to lose face
and resulting in payoffs of (10, −10), or it can choose to proceed to a nuclear
confrontation (N).
▶ Upon the choice of N, the players play a simultaneous-move game in which they can
either retreat (R for player 1, r for player 2) or choose Doomsday (D for player 1, d for
player 2), in which the world is all but destroyed. If both call things off and retreat
then they suffer a small loss due to the mobilization process and payoffs are (−5, −5),
while if either party chooses Doomsday then the world destructs and payoffs are
(−100, −100)