KA-prep-20-04-24 [109 marks]

1. [Maximum mark: 16] 21M.2.AHL.TZ2.2

It is known that the weights of male Persian cats are normally distributed with
mean 6. 1 kg and variance 0. 5 2 kg .
2

(a) Sketch a diagram showing the above information. [2]

Markscheme

A1A1

Note: Award A1 for a normal curve with mean labelled 6. 1 or μ, A1 for

indication of SD (0. 5) : marks on horizontal axis at 5. 6 and/or 6. 6 OR
μ − 0. 5 and/or μ + 0. 5 on the correct side and approximately correct

position.

[2 marks]

(b) Find the proportion of male Persian cats weighing between

5. 5 kg and 6. 5 kg. [2]

Markscheme

2
X~N(6. 1, 0. 5 )

P(5. 5 < X < 6. 5) OR labelled sketch of region (M1)

= 0. 673 (0. 673074 …) A1

 [2 marks]

A group of 80 male Persian cats are drawn from this population.

(c) Determine the expected number of cats in this group that have
a weight of less than 5. 3 kg. [3]

Markscheme

(P(X < 5. 3) =) 0. 0547992 … (A1)

0. 0547992 … × 80 (M1)

= 4. 38 (4. 38393 …) A1

[3 marks]

The male cats are now joined by 80 female Persian cats. The female cats are
drawn from a population whose weights are normally distributed with mean
4. 5 kg and standard deviation 0. 45 kg.

Ten female cats are chosen at random.

(d.i) Find the probability that exactly one of them weighs over
4. 62 kg. [4]

Markscheme

2
Y ~N(4. 5, 0. 45 ),

(P(Y > 4. 62) =) 0. 394862 … (A1)

use of binomial seen or implied (M1)

 using B(10, 0. 394862 …) (M1)

0. 0430 (0. 0429664 …) A1

[4 marks]

(d.ii) Let N be the number of cats weighing over 4. 62 kg.

Find the variance of N . [1]

Markscheme

np(1 − p) = 2. 39 (2. 38946 …) A1

[1 mark]

(e) A cat is selected at random from all 160 cats.

Find the probability that the cat was female, given that its
weight was over 4. 7 kg. [4]

Markscheme

P(F ∩ (W > 4. 7)) = 0. 5 × 0. 3284 (= 0. 1642) (A1)

attempt use of tree diagram OR use of

P(F ∩(W >4.7))
P(F W > 4. 7) =
P(W >4.7)
(M1)

0.5×0.3284

0.5×0.9974+0.5×0.3284
(A1)

= 0. 248 (0. 247669 …) A1

[4 marks]
2. [Maximum mark: 14] 21M.2.AHL.TZ2.5
Hank sets up a bird table in his garden to provide the local birds with some food.
Hank notices that a specific bird, a large magpie, visits several times per month
and he names him Bill. Hank models the number of times per month that Bill
visits his garden as a Poisson distribution with mean 3. 1.

(a) Using Hank’s model, find the probability that Bill visits the
garden on exactly four occasions during one particular month. [1]

Markscheme

X 1 ~Po(3. 1)

P(X 1 = 4) = 0. 173 (0. 173349 …) A1

[1 mark]

Over the course of 3 consecutive months, find the probability that Bill visits the
garden:

(b.i) on exactly 12 occasions. [2]

Markscheme

X 2 ~Po(3 × 3. 1) = Po(9. 3) (M1)

P(X 2 = 12) = 0. 0799 (0. 0798950 …) A1

[2 marks]

(b.ii) during the first and third month only. [3]

Markscheme
 2
(P(X 1 > 0)) × P(X 1 = 0) (M1)

0. 95495
2
× 0. 04505 (A1)

= 0. 0411 (0. 0410817 …) A1

[3 marks]

(c) Find the probability that over a 12-month period, there will be
exactly 3 months when Bill does not visit the garden. [4]

Markscheme

P(X 1 = 0) = 0. 04505 (A1)

X 1 ~B(12, 0. 04505) (M1)(A1)

Note: Award M1 for recognizing binomial probability, and A1 for correct

parameters.

= 0. 0133 (0. 013283 …) A1

[4 marks]

(d) After the first year, a number of baby magpies start to visit
Hank’s garden. It may be assumed that each of these baby
magpies visits the garden randomly and independently, and
that the number of times each baby magpie visits the garden
per month is modelled by a Poisson distribution with mean
2. 1.
 Determine the least number of magpies required, including Bill, [4]
in order that the probability of Hank’s garden having at least 30
magpie visits per month is greater than 0. 2.

Markscheme

METHOD ONE

(M1)(A1)(A1)

Note: Award M1 for evidence of a cumulative Poisson with

λ = 3. 1 + 2. 1n, A1 for 0. 136705 and A1 for 0. 253384.

so require 12 magpies (including Bill) A1

METHOD TWO

evidence of a cumulative Poisson with λ = 3. 1 + 2. 1n (M1)

sketch of curve and y = 0. 2 (A1)

(intersect at) 10. 5810 … (A1)

rounding up gives n = 11

so require 12 magpies (including Bill) A1

[4 marks]
3. [Maximum mark: 9] 18N.3.AHL.TZ0.Hsp_2
The times t, in minutes, taken by a random sample of 75 workers of a company
to travel to work can be summarized as follows

∑ t = 2165 , ∑ t = 76475.
2

Let T be the random variable that represents the time taken to travel to work by
a worker of this company.

(a.i) Find unbiased estimates of the mean of T . [1]

Markscheme

75

∑ ti

t̄ =
i=1

75
= 28.886 … = 28.9 A1

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Find unbiased estimates of the variance of T . [2]

Markscheme

75
2
⎛ ∑ t
i
⎞
s n−1
2
=
75

74
i=1

75
− t̄
2
= 188.9009 … = 189 (M1)A1
⎝ ⎠

Note: Accept all answers that round to 28.9 and 189.

Note: Award M0 if division by 75.

[2 marks]
(b) Assuming that T is normally distributed, find

(i) the 90% confidence interval for the mean time taken to
travel to work by the workers of this company,

(ii) the 95% confidence interval for the mean time taken to
travel to work by the workers of this company. [3]

Markscheme

attempting to find a confidence interval. (M1)

(i) 90% interval: (26.2, 31.5) A1

(ii) 95% interval: (25.7, 32.0) A1

Note: Accept any values which round to within 0.1 of the correct value.

Note: Award M1A1A0 if only confidence limits are given in the form 28.9 ±
2.6.

[3 marks]

(c) Before seeing these results the managing director believed that
the mean time was 26 minutes.

Explain whether your answers to part (b) support her belief. [3]

Markscheme

26 lies within the 95% interval but not within the 90% interval R1

Note: Award R1 for considering whether or not one or two of the intervals
contain 26.
the belief is supported at the 5% level (accept 95%) A1

the belief is not supported at the 10% level (accept 90%) A1

Note: FT their intervals but award R1A1A0 if both intervals give the same
conclusion.

[3 marks]
4. [Maximum mark: 5] 18M.2.AHL.TZ1.H_4
The age, L, in years, of a wolf can be modelled by the normal distribution L ~ N(8,
5).

(a) Find the probability that a wolf selected at random is at least 5

years old. [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.

P(L ≥ 5) = 0.910 (M1)A1

[2 marks]

(b) Eight wolves are independently selected at random and their

ages recorded.

Find the probability that more than six of these wolves are at
least 5 years old. [3]

Markscheme

X is the number of wolves found to be at least 5 years old recognising

binomial distribution M1

X ~ B(8, 0.910…)

P(X > 6) = 1 − P(X ≤ 6) (M1)

= 0.843 A1

Note: Award M1A0 for finding P(X ≥ 6).

[3 marks]
5. [Maximum mark: 14] 19N.3.AHL.TZ0.Hsp_3
(a) State the central limit theorem as applied to a random sample
of size n, taken from a distribution with mean μ and variance
σ
2
. [2]

Markscheme

for n (sufficiently) large the sample mean X̄ approximately A1

2
σ
∼ N (μ,
n
) A1

Note: Award the first A1 for n large and reference to the sample mean
(X̄), the second A1 is for normal and the two parameters.

Note: Award the second A1 only if the first A1 is awarded.

Note: Allow ‘n tends to infinity’ or ‘n ≥ 30’ in place of ‘large’.

[2 marks]

A random variable X has a distribution with mean μ and variance 4. A random

sample of size 100 is to be taken from the distribution of X .

(b) Jack takes a random sample of size 100 and calculates that
x̄ = 60.2. Find an approximate 90 % confidence interval for

μ. [2]

Markscheme

[59.9, 60.5] A1A1

Note: Accept answers which round to the correct 3sf answers.

[2 marks]
Josie takes a different random sample of size 100 to test the null hypothesis that
μ = 60 against the alternative hypothesis that μ > 60 at the 5 % level.

(c.i) Find the critical region for Josie’s test, giving your answer
correct to two decimal places. [4]

Markscheme

under H 0 , X̄ ∼ N (60,
4

100
) (A1)

required to find k such that P (X̄ > k) = 0.05 (M1)

use of any valid method, eg GDC Inv(Normal) or k = 60 + z

σ

√n

(M1)

hence critical region is x̄ = 60.33 A1

[4 marks]

(c.ii) Write down the probability that Josie makes a Type I error. [1]

Markscheme

0.05 A1

[1 mark]

(c.iii) Given that the probability that Josie makes a Type II error is 0.25,
find the value of μ, giving your answer correct to three
significant figures. [5]

Markscheme

P(Type II error) = P(H 0 is accepted / H 0 is false) (R1)

Note: Accept Type II error means H 0 is accepted given H 0 is false.

4
⇒ P (X̄ < 60.33) = 0.25 when X̄ ∼ N (μ, ) (M1)
100

X̄−μ 60.33−μ
⇒ P( 2
< 2
) = 0.25 (M1)
10 10

60.33−μ
⇒ P (Z < 2
) = 0.25 where Z ∼ N (0, 1 )
2

10

60.33−μ
2
= −0.6744 … (A1)
10

2
μ = 60.33 + × 0.6744 …
10

μ = 60.5 A1

[5 marks]
6. [Maximum mark: 10] 19M.3.AHL.TZ0.Hsp_3
In a large population of hens, the weight of a hen is normally distributed with
mean μ kg and standard deviation σ kg. A random sample of 100 hens is taken
from the population.

The mean weight for the sample is denoted by X̄ .

(a) State the distribution of X̄ giving its mean and variance. [1]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain
minor differences in marking or structure.

2
σ
X̄ ∼ N (μ,
100
) A1

Note: Accept n in place of 100.

[1 mark]

The sample values are summarized by ∑ x = 199.8 and ∑ x

2
= 407.8

where x kg is the weight of a hen.

(b) Find an unbiased estimate for μ. [1]

Markscheme

∑x 199.8
μ
^ =
n
=
100
= 1.998 A1

Note: Accept 2.00, 2.0 and 2.

[1 mark]

(c) Find an unbiased estimate for σ 2 . [2]

 Markscheme

2
n ∑x 100 407.8 2
s n−1
2
=
n−1
(
n
2
− x̄ ) =
99
(
100
− 1.998 ) (M1)

= 0.086864

unbiased estimate for σ 2 is 0.0869 A1

Note: Accept any answer which rounds to 0.087.

[2 marks]

(d) Find a 90 % confidence interval for μ. [3]

Markscheme

90 % confidence interval is 1.998 ± 1.660√ (M1)

0.0869

100

= (1.95, 2.05) A1A1

Note: FT their σ from (c).

Note: Condone the use of the z-value 1.645 since n is large.

Note: Accept any values that round to 1.95 and 2.05.

[3 marks]

It is found that σ = 0.27 . It is decided to test, at the 1 % level of significance, the

null hypothesis μ = 1.95 against the alternative hypothesis μ > 1.95.

(e.i) Find the p-value for the test. [2]

Markscheme

p-value is 0.0377 A2
 Note: Award A1 for the 2-tail value 0.0754.

Note: Award A2 for 0.0377 and A1 for any other value that rounds to 0.038.

Note: FT their estimated mean from (b), note that 2 gives p = 0.032(0).

[2 marks]

(e.ii) Write down the conclusion reached. [1]

Markscheme

accept the null hypothesis A1

Note: FT their p-value.

[1 mark]
7. [Maximum mark: 18] 22N.2.AHL.TZ0.6
A company makes doors for kitchen cupboards from two layers. The inside layer
is wood, and its thickness is normally distributed with mean 7 mm and standard
deviation 0. 3 mm. The outside layer is plastic, and its thickness is normally
distributed with mean 3 mm and standard deviation 0. 16 mm. The thickness
of the plastic is independent of the thickness of the wood.

(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen door has a total
thickness of less than 9. 5 mm. [5]

Markscheme

wood layer, W ~N(7, 0. 3 ); plastic P ~N(3, 0. 16 )

2 2

door: X = W + P

E(X) = 10 (mm) (A1)

2
Var(X) = Var(W ) + Var(P ) = 0. 1156 (mm )

(M1)(A1)

recognizing the distribution is Normal, with their mean and variance

(M1)

2
X~N(10, 0. 34 )

P(X < 9. 5) = 0. 0707 (0. 07070125 …) A1

[5 marks]

Eight doors are to be packed into a box to send to a customer. The width of the
box is 82 mm. The thickness of each door is independent.

(b) Find the probability that the total thickness of the eight doors is
greater than the width of the box.
 [4]

Markscheme

E(T ) = 80 (A1)

Var(T )(= 0. 1156 × 8) = 0. 9248 (M1)(A1)

T ~N(80, 0. 9248)

P(T > 82) = 0. 0188 (0. 0187753 …) A1

[4 marks]

The company buys two new machines, A and B, to make the wooden layers. An
employee claims that the layers from machine B are thinner than the layers
from machine A. In order to test this claim, a random sample is taken from each
machine.

The seven layers in the sample from machine A have a thickness, in mm, of

6. 23, 7. 04, 7. 31, 6. 79, 6. 91, 6. 79, 7. 47.

Find the

(c.i) mean. [1]

Markscheme

6. 93 mm (6. 93428 …) A1

[1 mark]
(c.ii) unbiased estimate of the population variance. [2]

Markscheme

(S n−1 =) 0. 404 (A1)

2
(S n−1 =) 0. 163 mm
2
(0. 162928 …) A1

[2 marks]

The eight layers in the sample from machine B have a mean thickness of
6. 89 mm and S n−1 = 0. 31.

(d) Perform a suitable test, at the 5% significance level, to test the

employee’s claim. You may assume the thickness of the wooden
layers from each machine are normally distributed with equal
population variance. [6]

Markscheme

H0 : μA = μB and H1 : μA > μB A1A1

Note: Award A1 for use of μ or in words “population mean”, and A1 for both
correct equality in null hypothesis and correct inequality in alternative
hypothesis. Accept an equivalent statement in words, must include mean
and reference to “population mean” / “mean for all Machine B layers” for
the first A1 to be awarded.

use a two-sample t-test (M1)

p-value = 0. 406975 … A1

since 0. 406975 … > 0. 05 OR p-value > 0. 05 R1

Do not reject H 0 (Insufficient evidence to support the employee’s claim)
A1

Note: Accept a p-value of 0. 415861 … from use of 3sf values from part
(c). Follow through within the question for the final R1 and A1 for their p-
value provided 0 ≤ p ≤ 1. Do not award R0A1.

[6 marks]
8. [Maximum mark: 18] 22N.2.AHL.TZ0.6
A company makes doors for kitchen cupboards from two layers. The inside layer
is wood, and its thickness is normally distributed with mean 7 mm and standard
deviation 0. 3 mm. The outside layer is plastic, and its thickness is normally
distributed with mean 3 mm and standard deviation 0. 16 mm. The thickness
of the plastic is independent of the thickness of the wood.

(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen door has a total
thickness of less than 9. 5 mm. [5]

Markscheme

wood layer, W ~N(7, 0. 3 ); plastic P ~N(3, 0. 16 )

2 2

door: X = W + P

E(X) = 10 (mm) (A1)

2
Var(X) = Var(W ) + Var(P ) = 0. 1156 (mm )

(M1)(A1)

recognizing the distribution is Normal, with their mean and variance

(M1)

2
X~N(10, 0. 34 )

P(X < 9. 5) = 0. 0707 (0. 07070125 …) A1

[5 marks]

Eight doors are to be packed into a box to send to a customer. The width of the
box is 82 mm. The thickness of each door is independent.

(b) Find the probability that the total thickness of the eight doors is
greater than the width of the box.
 [4]

Markscheme

E(T ) = 80 (A1)

Var(T )(= 0. 1156 × 8) = 0. 9248 (M1)(A1)

T ~N(80, 0. 9248)

P(T > 82) = 0. 0188 (0. 0187753 …) A1

[4 marks]

The company buys two new machines, A and B, to make the wooden layers. An
employee claims that the layers from machine B are thinner than the layers
from machine A. In order to test this claim, a random sample is taken from each
machine.

The seven layers in the sample from machine A have a thickness, in mm, of

6. 23, 7. 04, 7. 31, 6. 79, 6. 91, 6. 79, 7. 47.

Find the

(c.i) mean. [1]

Markscheme

6. 93 mm (6. 93428 …) A1

[1 mark]
(c.ii) unbiased estimate of the population variance. [2]

Markscheme

(S n−1 =) 0. 404 (A1)

2
(S n−1 =) 0. 163 mm
2
(0. 162928 …) A1

[2 marks]

The eight layers in the sample from machine B have a mean thickness of
6. 89 mm and S n−1 = 0. 31.

(d) Perform a suitable test, at the 5% significance level, to test the

employee’s claim. You may assume the thickness of the wooden
layers from each machine are normally distributed with equal
population variance. [6]

Markscheme

H0 : μA = μB and H1 : μA > μB A1A1

Note: Award A1 for use of μ or in words “population mean”, and A1 for both
correct equality in null hypothesis and correct inequality in alternative
hypothesis. Accept an equivalent statement in words, must include mean
and reference to “population mean” / “mean for all Machine B layers” for
the first A1 to be awarded.

use a two-sample t-test (M1)

p-value = 0. 406975 … A1

since 0. 406975 … > 0. 05 OR p-value > 0. 05 R1

Do not reject H 0 (Insufficient evidence to support the employee’s claim)
A1

Note: Accept a p-value of 0. 415861 … from use of 3sf values from part
(c). Follow through within the question for the final R1 and A1 for their p-
value provided 0 ≤ p ≤ 1. Do not award R0A1.

[6 marks]
9. [Maximum mark: 5] 22M.1.SL.TZ2.10
The masses of Fuji apples are normally distributed with a mean of 163 g and a
standard deviation of 6. 83 g.

When Fuji apples are picked, they are classified as small, medium, large or extra
large depending on their mass. Large apples have a mass of between 172 g and
183 g.

(a) Determine the probability that a Fuji apple selected at random

will be a large apple. [2]

Markscheme

sketch of normal curve with shaded region to the right of the mean and
correct values (M1)

0. 0921 (0. 0920950 …) A1

[2 marks]

Approximately 68% of Fuji apples have a mass within the medium-sized

category, which is between k and 172 g.

(b) Find the value of k. [3]

Markscheme
EITHER

(P(x < 172))

0. 906200 … (A1)

(0. 906200 … − 0. 68)

0. 226200 … (A1)

OR

(P(163 < x < 172))

0. 406200 … (A1)

0. 5 − (0. 68 − 0. 406200 …) OR
0. 5 + (0. 68 − 0. 406200 …)

0. 226200 … OR 0. 773799 … (A1)

OR

(A1)(A1)

Note: Award A1 for a normal distribution curve with a vertical line on each
side of the mean and a correct probability of either 0. 406 or 0. 274 or
0. 906 shown, A1 for a probability of 0. 226 seen.
THEN

(k =) 158 g (157. 867 … g) A1

[3 marks]

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