Chapter - One 01 - Introduction - Final
Chapter - One 01 - Introduction - Final
Chapter - One 01 - Introduction - Final
Fahmida Khatun
Executive Director
Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD)
8 November 2018
Acknowledgement
2
Contents
1. Background
2. Objectives of the study
3. Methodology of the study
4. Overview of Aid Dynamics in Bangladesh: Recent Trends
5. Evaluation of Effectiveness for Foreign Aid
6. Macro Level Analysis: Contribution of Foreign Aid to Growth
7. Micro Level Analysis: Contribution of ODA to Health
Outcomes
8. Summary of Findings: Macro and Micro Level Analyses
9. Challenges of Aid Utilisation in Bangladesh
10. Recommendations
3
1. Background
1. Background
• Bangladesh is passing through the period of double graduation. In 2015, the country has
achieved the status of Lower Middle Income Economy (LMIE) by increasing its per capita
income. In March 2018, it has entered into the process of graduating from a Least Developed
Country (LDC) to a developing country by 2024 (UNCTAD, 2017) by fulfilling all three
criteria to be eligible for graduation - per capita income, human assets, and economic
vulnerability.
• However, Bangladesh needs to deal with several challenges as it moves forward to make its
growth sustainable. One such challenge will be mobilisation of finance for development
(FfD) from external sources.
• Once graduated, terms of official development assistance (ODA) (foreign aid) will change
and external resources will be costly as the grant element mat not be widely available. This
may potentially put pressure on debt servicing.
• Though the share of ODA, as percentage of GDP has declined to 1.47 percent in FY2016-17,
compared to 3.07 percent in FY1996-97, the need for ODA in development activities of
Bangladesh is still significant.
• The need for ODA will be felt more as the government of Bangladesh (GoB) is committed to
implement the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).
• Thus, raising the efficacy of aid utilization will become more important in the coming days.
5
1. Background
6
2. Objectives of the Study
2. Objectives of the study
8
3. Methodology of the Study
3. Methodology of the Study
Interview of knowledgeable
informants to solicit their
views on how aid utilisation
can be made effective
10
4. Overview of Aid Dynamics in Bangladesh:
Recent Trends
4. Overview of aid dynamics in Bangladesh:
Historical trend of aid
economy is declining
20
18
is increasing, ODA as a 14
Percentage, %
10
country’s dependence on 6
ODA has also declined 4
12
4. Overview of aid dynamics in Bangladesh:
Composition
80
3000
• Project aid as a share of 70
Percentage, %
60
Million USD
increasing since FY99 2000 50
13
4. Overview of aid dynamics in Bangladesh:
Bilateral and multilateral aid
Gap between bilateral Figure 3: Bilateral and Multilateral Aid Disbursement (USD Million)
90.0
3500
80.0
Percentage, %
60.0
Million USD
decreasing since FY04 2000 50.0
10.0
• Gap between the two closed 0 0.0
down in FY14, but has been
1980-81
1990-91
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
increasing since then
Total Bilateral
Total Multilateral
Total Aid
Source: Economic Relations Division (ERD), Ministry of Finance, Government of Bangladesh.
14
4. Overview of aid dynamics in Bangladesh: Aid
disbursement in selected sectors
infrastructure 30
sectors
PERCENTAGE, %
20
• Aid disbursement in 5
transport sector exceeded 0
that of education in FY17 1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
• Aid disbursement in
agriculture has been Agriculture (% of ODA)
hovering at around 5% Health, Population & Family Welfare (% of ODA)
Power (% of ODA)
Source: Economic Relations Division (ERD), Ministry of Finance, Government of Bangladesh.
15
4. Overview of aid dynamics in Bangladesh: Utilisation
of project aid and Taka Allocation
allocation in ADP
80
• Utilisation of Taka
Percentage
60
allocation of ADP shows
increasing trend since FY08 40
18
5. Evaluation of effectiveness of ODA: ODA Fund
Trajectory
19
5.1 Additionality of aid
Aid shows declining Figure 6: ODA in Bangladesh as % of GDP and ADP (USD Million)
3.5 90.0
trends with respect to
GDP and ADP
80.0
3.0
70.0
ODA as % of GDP
ODA as % of ADP
2.0 50.0
• ODA as a share of GDP has 40.0
been generally decreasing 1.5
20.0
0.5
10.0
0.0 0.0
1997-98
2010-11
1995-96
1996-97
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
ODA as % of GDP ODA as % of ADP
20
5.2 Predictability: Commitment and disbursement
16000
• Commitment spiked in 126.4
140
Million USD
93.6 94.2 100
89.2 87.7
10000
• Disbursements have been
Percentage, %
75.6
73.5
69.9 72.5 74.7
72.3 80
8000 66.7
increasing steadily since 58
53.7
57.9
52.8 50.6 60
FY11 6000 48.0
44.6
40
4000 29.8
• Unusually large difference 20.5
20
2000
between commitment and
disbursement in FY17, due 0 0
1980-81
1990-91
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
to high commitment and
low disbursement Disbursement as % of Commitment Commitment Disbursement
21
5.3 Grants vs loans: Changes in composition of
grant and loan components over time
Loans increasing amidst Figure 8: Grants and Loans Disbursement (USD Million)
dwindling grants
4000 100
90
3500
80
• In FY97, loans and grants were 3000
70
almost equally divided as 2500
Percentage, %
shares of total aid 60
Million USD
2000 50
• Since then, grants as a share of
40
total aid have been declining, 1500
declining 250000
35
30
Percentage, %
25
Million USD
declining from FY01 to 150000 20
FY02
100000
10
in FY17 (12.8%)
5
0 0
2004-05
2015-16
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2016-17
GDP External Debt External Debt as % of GDP
Source: Economic Relations Division (ERD), Ministry of Finance, Government of Bangladesh.
Note: (i) The base year for 2000-2012 is 1995-96; (ii) The base year for 2012-2017 is 2005-06.
23
5.4 Debt Servicing to GDP ratio
Percentage, %
Million USD
been declining consistently
800.0 0.8
lowest in FY17
400.0 0.4
200.0 0.2
0.0 0.0
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
Debt Service Debt service as % of GDP
25
5. 5 Summary: Evaluation of ODA in Bangladesh
(contd.)
26
5. 5 Summary: Evaluation of ODA in Bangladesh
(contd.)
27
5. 5 Summary: Evaluation of ODA in Bangladesh
(contd.)
Source: Authors
28
6. Macro Level Analysis:
Contribution of ODA to Growth
6.1 Variables
Variable Definition
GDP per capita Annual percentage growth rate of GDP per capita based constant 2010 U.S. dollars.
Investment Annual growth rate of gross capital formation based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars.
Labour Growth rate of labour force (people ages 15 and older who supply labour for the
production of goods and services during a specified period)
Aid Net official development assistance received as a percentage of Gross National Income
Aid squared Squared aid term
Broad money supply Broad money supply as a percentage of GDP
Policy index Policy index (composed of inflation, govcons, and trade)
Institutional quality Institutional quality index (composed on coc, ge, ps, rq, va, and rol)
index
Inflation Logarithm of inflation rate plus one
Government Government consumption relative to GDP
consumption
Trade Exports plus imports relative to GDP
Control over corruption Control over corruption index
Government Government effectiveness index
effectiveness
Political stability Political stability index
Regulatory quality Regulatory quality index
Voice and accountability Voice and accountability index
Rule of law Rule of law index
Source: Author’s compilation based on data from World Development Indicators and Worldwide Governance Indicators
30
6.2 Index constructions
Step 1: Step 1:
• Regress GDP per capita on • Regress GDP per capita on
inflation, government control over corruption,
consumption, and trade government effectiveness,
Step 2: political stability, regulatory
quality, voice and accountability,
• Use the estimated coefficients as and rule of law
weights to make a composite
policy index Step 2:
• Use the estimated coefficients as
weights to make a composite
institutional quality index
31
6.3 Results from Granger causality test
32
6.4 Results of model estimation
35
7.2 Variables
Variable Definition
Infant Mortality Rate Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) The number of deaths occurring during a given year among
the live-born infants who have not reached their first birthday, divided by the number of
live births in the given year and usually expressed per 1000 live births.
Under-Five Mortality Under-Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) The under-five mortality rate is defined as the number
Rate of deaths to children under five year of age per 1000 live births in a given year.
Child Death Rate Child Death Rate (ChDR) Child death rates is defined as the number of deaths among
children in age 1-4 per 1000 mid-year population in the same age group.
Project Aid in Health Disbursement of project aid in health sector (million USD)
Sector
Per Capita Health Aid Current external expenditures on health per capita expressed in international dollars at
purchasing power parity (PPP).
Per Capita Government Public expenditure on health from domestic sources per capita expressed in international
Health Expenditure dollars at purchasing power parity (PPP).
Per Capita Private Current private expenditures on health per capita expressed in international dollars at
Health Expenditure purchasing power parity (PPP).
Per Capita Out-of-pocket Health expenditure through out-of-pocket payments per capita in international dollars at
Health Expenditure purchasing power parity (PPP).
Source: Author’s compilation based on data from World Bank’s Health Nutrition and Population Statistics database and Sample Vital Registration Statistics of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).
36
7.3 Results of model estimation
37
8. Summary of findings:
Macro and Micro Level Analyses
8. Summary of findings: Macro and Micro Level Impact
39
9. Challenges of Aid Utilisation
in Bangladesh
9. Challenges of Aid Utilisation in Bangladesh
41
9. Challenges of Aid Utilisation in Bangladesh (contd .)
45