960-381– Theory of Probability– Fall, 2021

Homework 1 Solutions, 16 Sep

1. Question 2.18, page 34. Suppose two balanced coins are tossed and the upper faces are
observed.
a. List the sample points for this experiment.

S = {(H, H), (H, T ), (T, H), (T, T )} . Alternatively if one does not distinguish between coins

b. Assign a reasonable probability to each sample point. (Are the sample points equally
likely?)

(T, T ) and (H, H) each have probability 1/4 . If one distinguishes between (H, T ) and
(T, H) then these each get probability 1/4 . If one fails to distinguish these, the common
value gets probability 1/2 .
c. Let A denote the event that exactly one head is observed and B the event that at
least one head is observed. List the sample points in both A and B .

A = {(H, T ), (T, H)} , and B = {(H, H), (H, T ), (T, H))} .

 
d. From your answer to part (c), find P (A) , P (B) , P (A ∪ B) , and P A ∪ B by
summing the probabilities of the sample points in these events.
 
2 3 2
P (A) = 4
= 0.5 , P (B) = 4
= 0.75 , P (A ∩ B) = 4
= 0.5 , and P A ∪ B = 1 .

2. Question 2.32, page 40. A retailer sells only two styles of stereo consoles, and
experience shows that these are in equal demand. Four customers in succession come
into the store to order stereos. The retailer is interested in their preferences.
a. List the possibilities for preference arrangements among the four customers (that is, list
the sample space).

Label the styles a and b . Possible outcomes are {(a, a, a, a), (b, a, a, a), (a, b, a, a), (b, b, a, a), (a, a, b, a), (b, a
b. Assign probabilities to the sample points.
Since each style is equally likely, assuming that earlier preferences do not impact later ones,
then each of these 16 outcomes have probability 1/16 .

c. Let A denote the event that all four customers prefer the same style. Find P (A) .

Only two of the preferences satisfy this. The probability is 1/16 + 1/16 = 1/8 .

1
 960-381– Theory of Probability– Fall, 2021

3. Question 2.46, page 49. Ten teams are playing in a basketball tournament. In the
first round, the teams are randomly assigned to games 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. In how many
ways can the teams be assigned to games?
The question doesn’t make clear whether one should distinguish among games. That is, if
basketball course are labeled A through E, are the assignments 1 and 2 to A, 3 and 4 to B, 5
and 6 to C, 7 and 8 to D, and 9 and 10 to E, different from 3 and 4 to A, 1 and 2 to B, 5 and
6 to C, 7 and 8 to D, and 9 and 10 to E?
Assume first that the two scenarios above are distinguishable. That is, it matters which
court a pair of teams is assigned to. If teams are assigned with distinction between teams
assigned to one game (that is, there is a home and an away team), then all of the assignments
are distinguishable, and there are 10! assignments. If there is no distinction between teams
assigned to a game (for example, no home or away team) then each of the above assignments
is counted twice, and so there are 10!2−5 = 113400 assignments.
If the assignment between team pair and court does not matter, then the above number
should be divided by 5! = 120 , to get the number of ways to assign teams to play together
without distinguishing between games is 113400/120=945. Either answer is acceptable.
4. Question 2.80, page 57. Suppose that A ⊂ B and that P (A) > 0 and P (B) > 0 .
Are A and B independent? Prove your answer. (Hint: The question is not posed
entirely correctly. If A ⊂ B and the sets are independent, what does this imply about
P (B) ?)
P (A ∩ B) = P (A) . Then A and B independent implies P (A ∩ B) = P (A) P (B) , and
so 1 = P (B) .
5. Question 2.120, page 69. Suppose that two defective refrigerators have been included
in a shipment of six refrigerators. The buyer begins to test the six refrigerators one at a
time.
a. What is the probability that the last defective refrigerator is found on the fourth test?
The probability that the last two refrigerators are good is 4/6 × 3/5 = 2/5 . The probability
that the last three refrigerators are good is 4/6 × 3/5 × 2/4 = 1/5 . Hence the probability of
the second defective being found on the fourth try is 2/5 − 1/5 = 1/5 .
b. What is the probability that no more than four refrigerators need to be tested to locate
both the defective refrigerators?
In the previous part we calculated the probability that the last two refrigerators were good.
This is 2/5 .
c. When given that exactly one of the two defective refrigerators has been located in the
first two tests, what is the probability that the remaining defective refrigerator is found in
the third or fourth test?
Conditional on knowing that of the first two refrigerators, one was good and one was bad, the
probability of finding a defective refrigerator on try 3 is 1/4, and the probability of finding it
2
 960-381– Theory of Probability– Fall, 2021

on try 4 is 3/4 × 1/3 = 1/4 . Hence the probability of finding the last defective on try 3 or 4
is 1/5 + 1/4 = 1/2 .

6. Question 2.130, page 74. A study of Georgia residents suggests that those who
worked in shipyards during World War II were subjected to a significantly higher risk of
lung cancer (Wall Street Journal, September 21, 1978). It was found that approximately
22% of those persons who had lung cancer worked at some prior time in a shipyard.
In contrast, only 14% of those who had no lung cancer worked at some prior time in a
shipyard. Suppose that the proportion of all Georgians living during World War II who
have or will have contracted lung cancer is 0.04%. Find the percentage of Georgians
living during the same period who will contract (or have contracted) lung cancer, given
that they have at some point worked in a shipyard.
Let A be the event of having lung cancer, and
 B be the event of having worked in a
shipyard. We are given P (B|A) = 0.22 , P B|A = 0.14 , and P (A) = 0.0004 . We want
   
P (A|B) . By Bayes’ law, P (A|B) = P (B|A) P (A) /(P (B|A) P (A) + P B|A P A ) =
0.22 × 0.0004/(0.22 × 0.0004 + 0.14 × (1 − 0.0004)) = 0.0006284278 .
7. Question 2.142, page 46. A spinner can land in any of four positions, A , B , C ,
and D , with equal probability. The spinner is used twice, and the position is noted
each time. Let the random variable Y represent the number of positions on which the
spinner did not land. Compute the probabilities for each value of Y .
Possible values for Y are 2 and 3. The event Y = 3 corresponds to the spinner landing on
the same position during the second spin as it did for the first spin. Hence P (Y = 3) = 1/4 ,
and so P (Y = 2) = 3/4 .
8. Question 2.154, page 81.
a. A drawer contains n = 5 different and distinguishable pairs of socks (a total of ten
socks). If a person (perhaps in the dark) randomly selects four socks, what is the
probability that there is no matching pair in the sample?
The probability of the second sock not matching the first is 8/9 . Conditional on the
second not matching the first, the probability of the third not matching either of the first
two is 6/8 . Conditional on no match among the first three socks, the probability of the
fourth not matching either of the first three is 4/7 . Hence the probability of no match is
8/9 × 6/8 × 4/7 = 8/21 .
b. A drawer contains n different and distinguishable pairs of socks (a total of 2n socks).
A person randomly selects 2r of the socks, where 2r < n . In terms of n and r , what is
the probability that there is no matching pair in the sample?
Address this problem by calculating πj , the probability of no match after j socks
have been drawn, conditional on no match after j − 1 socks have been drawn. Before
the draw, the drawer contains 2n − j + 1 socks, of which j − 1 could match. Then
πj = (2n − j + 1 − (j − 1))/(2n − j + 1) = 2(n − j + 1)/(2n − j + 1) . (As
3
 960-381– Theory of Probability– Fall, 2021

a check, verify that πj = 1 ). Then the probability of no match after r draws is

2r P (j = 2)r (n − j + 1)/(2n − j + 1) .