Liquidity
Liquidity
Liquidity
By
Bijaya Upadhaya Poudel
Roll No.: 664/16
Registration No. 7-2-318-10-2012
Central Department of Management
November, 2021
ii
CERTIFICATE OF AUTHORSHIP
I herby corroborate that I have researched and submitted the final draft of dissertation
entitled “Determinants of Liquidity in Commercial Bank of Nepal”. The work of
this dissertation has not been submitted previously for the purpose of conferred of any
degree nor has it been proposed and presented as part of requirements for any other
economic purpose.
The assistance and cooperation that I have received during this research has been
acknowledged. In addition, I declare that all information source and literature used are
cited in the reference section of dissertation.
…..………………………
Bijaya Upadhaya Poudel
Central Department of Management
iii
Mr. Bijaya Upadhaya Poudel has defended research proposal entitled “Determinants
of Liquidity in Commercial Bank of Nepal” successfully. The research committee
has registered the dissertation for the further progress. It is recommended to carry out
the work as per suggestions and guidance of supervisor Assistance Prof. Dr. Bal Ram
Duwal and submitted the thesis for evaluation and viva voce examination.
…..………………………
Dissertation Proposal Defended
Asst. Prof. Dr. Bal Ram Duwal
Supervisor Date: September 1, 2019
…..………………………
Dissertation Submitted
Asst. Prof. Dr. Bal Ram Duwal
Supervisor Date: November 15, 2021
…..………………………
Prof. Dr. Mahananda Chalice Dissertation Viva Voce
Date:
iv
APPROVAL SHEET
…..………………………
Assot. Prof. Dr. Bal Ram Duwal
Supervisor
…..………………………
Assot. Prof. Gyan Mani Adhikari
Internal Examiner
…..………………………
Assot. Prof. Dr. Manoj Kumar Chaudhary
External Examiner
…..……………………
Prof. Dr. Mahananda Chalice
Chairperson of Research Committee
…..……………………
Prof. Dr. Ramji Gautam
Head of Department
Date:-
v
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to offer my sincere gratitude to my supervisor Asst. Prof. Dr. Bal Ram
Duwal, Central Department of Management, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu for
his constant encouragement, guidance and valuable supervision at my every stage of
my work. This study wouldn’t have materialized in the present form without his
inclusive observation and intellectual direction in the course of completion.
I am totally grateful to Prof. Dr. Ramji Gautam, Head of Department for his help and
support while preparing this thesis. I am thankful to staff of Central Department of
Management and other staffs of Tribhuvan University Central Library for their kind
cooperation during my library visit.
…..…………………
Bijaya Upadhaya Poudel
Kirtipur, Kathmandu
vi
CONTENTS
Page No.
CERTIFICATE OF AUTHORSHIP ii
APPROVAL SHEET iv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS v
LIST OF TABLES ix
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS x
ABSTRACT xi
4.2.2.2 ANOVA 45
4.4 Discussion 51
5.1 Summary 54
viii
5.2 Conclusion 55
5.3 Implications 56
References
Appendix
ix
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
AD - Anna Domine
ADB/N - Agriculture Development Bank; Nepal
BS - Bikram Sambat
CAR - Capital Adequacy Ratio
CD Ratio - Credit Deposit Ratio
CSI - Cottage and Small Scale Industries
CV - Coefficient of Variation
G/N - Government of Nepal
GDP - Gross Domestic Product
i.e. - That is
IC - Indian Currency
IMF - International Monetary Fund
INF - Inflation
LC - Letter of Credit
NBL - Nepal Bank Limited
NC - Nepalese Currency
NIDC - Nepal Industrial Development Corporation
NPLs - Non-performing Loans
NRB - Nepal Rastra Bank
r - Correlation coefficient
RBB - Rastriya Banijya Bank
TA - Total Assets
BFIs - Bank and Financial Institutions
TU - Tribhuvan University
Viz. - Namely
xi
ABSTRACT
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
“Liquid asset means the cash balance of a bank or financial institution, the balance
remained in the current account, the balance maintained in Rastra Bank and such
assets of a bank or financial institution specified as liquid assets by the Rastra Bank
from time to time.” (Bank and Financial Institution Act, 2017).
Liquidity for a bank means the ability to meet its financial obligations as they come
due. Bank lending finances investments in relatively illiquid assets, but it funds its
loans with mostly short term liabilities. Thus one of the main challenges to a bank is
ensuring its own liquidity under all reasonable conditions. A bank's liquidity is
determined by its ability to meet all its anticipated expenses, such as funding loans or
making payments on debt, using only liquid assets. The attention has been paid by
lender to the last resort to overcome the liquidity crisis (Aspachs, et. Al. Nier, Tiesset,
2005).
Bank for International Settlements defines liquidity as the ability of bank to fund
increases in assets and meet obligations as they come due, without incurring
unacceptable losses. The management of any firm should be able to identify its
strength and weakness, likewise exploit opportunities and tackle threats as it is
determined to make profits.
2
Liquidity can be defined as the ability of a financial institution to meet all legitimate
demands for funds. A bank needs to hold liquid assets to meet the cash requirements
of its customers if the institution does not have the resources to satisfy its customers'
demand, then it either has to borrow on the inter-bank market or the central bank. If
bank unable to meet its customers' demands leaves itself exposed to a run and more
importantly, a systemic lack of confidence in the banking system (Yeager and Seitz,
1989).
Banks and financial institutions should have to maintain balanced level of liquidity in
efficient and effective manner and policymakers can affect their effort in constructive
way. The management of bank and financial policy makers then needs to decide how
they can do best to maintain balanced level of liquidity in their respective area. Study
proposed that all managements of bank and policy makers should have to do close
evaluation to the relationship between liquidity and its independent variable which
may be inside the commercial banks or may be outside of the commercial banks. So
they can find significance and direction of relation that will certainly helpful for
proactive management of liquidity level and invest to the liquidity in beneficial way.
This study aims to analyze determinants of liquidity of commercial banks and their
relationship with the liquidity based on information available in Nepalese context.
The objectives of this study will examine the impact of the determinants of the
liquidity of Nepalese commercial bank. The specific objectives of the study are listed
as below:
1. To assess the determinants of liquidity in commercial banks of Nepal.
2. To examine the relationship between bank’s specific variables and
macro-economic variables on liquidity of commercial banks of Nepal.
3. To examine the effect of bank’s specific variables and macro-
economical variables on liquidity of commercial banks in Nepal.
The study deals with determinants of level of liquidity in commercial banks of Nepal.
The study also significance lies mainly in identifying and comparing the determinants
factors of liquidity. Banks can use recommendation of this study for proactive
management. It provides the real picture of ongoing condition which is beneficial to
potential as well as existing shareholders, about identifying risk return and make
decisions of utilizing funds. The study is also useful for depositors, merchant bankers
as well as other stakeholders; they can identify the overall performance and ongoing
liquidity risk of the banks. It will be helpful to those who want to conduct further
study in this field. Mainly, this study will be significance for the researchers, research
group and academicians for the future in the view of review.
5
The whole study is divided into five chapters and the chapters are organized
systematically as follows for the effective study.
Chapter I: This chapter consists of major issues to investigate along with the
objective, significance, focus and limitation of the study.
Chapter II: This chapter is related to theoretical analysis a brief review of related
literature. It tries to show overall scenario of determinants of liquidity level, its
determinants and their effect in financial performance, especially analysis of
commercial banks of Nepal.
Chapter III: This section describes the methodology employed in the study. This
chapter deals with the nature and sources of data selection for study areas, method of
analysis etc
Chapter IV: This chapter deals with the presentation and analysis of data and major
findings by using proper tools and techniques.
CHAPTER II
LITERATURE REVIEW
Review of literature has vital relevance with any research. Review of literature means
reviewing research studies of other relevant propositions in the related area of the
study so that all the past studies, their conclusions and deficiencies may be known and
further research can be conducted. Different authors like Moore, (2010), Chagwiza,
(2014), Rychtárik, (2009), Vodova, (2011) and Praet and Herzberg, (2008) provide
various liquidity ratios such as liquid assets to total assets, liquid assets to deposits,
liquidity assets to deposits plus borrowing, loans to total assets, loans to deposits,
loans to deposits & short term borrowings and total loan to total liabilities. To sum up,
we can employ various balance sheet items to identify liquidity trends and proactive
management of liquidity level.
Among the above liquidity ratios, Vodova, (2011) has used two ratios, namely liquid
assets to total assets (L1) and liquidity assets to deposits plus borrowing (L2), which is
the current practice of the Nepalese banks mentioned by regulatory body’s liquidity
requirement related directives. Therefore these ratios are using in this study as the
liquidity measures. In this chapter study have divided into two parts namely,
conceptual review and empirical review which are mentioning below:
The capital adequacy ratios (CARs) are a measures of the amount of a bank's core
capitals expressed as a percentage of its risk-weighted asset. Primary reason why
banks hold capital is to minimizing risks, including the risk of liquidity crunches,
protection against bank runs, and various other risks, most importantly credit risk.
Though the reason why banks hold capital is motivated by their risk transformational
role. Bank capital also do effect on banks’ ability to create liquidity. These theories
produce opposing predictions on the link between capital and liquidity creation. There
are mainly two types of capital adequacy ratio to level of liquidity “financial fragility-
7
crowding out” “Risk Absorption”. First one predicts that higher capital reduces
liquidity creation and vice versa predicts second one.
Focusing to the financial weakness, bank that raises funds from investors to provide
financing to an entrepreneur. The entrepreneur may withhold effort, which reduces
the amount of bank financing accessibility. More importantly, the bank may also
withhold effort, which limits the bank’s ability to raise financing. A deposit contract
mitigates the bank’s money holdup problem, because depositors might withdraw
money from bank if the bank threatens to withhold effort and therefore maximizes
liquidity creation. Providers of capital cannot run on the bank, which limits their
willingness to provide funds, and hence reduces liquidity creation. Thus, the higher a
bank’s capital ratio, the less liquidity it will create.. If deposit insurance were
complete, depositors have no incentive to run on the bank, and a deposit contract does
not mitigate the bank’s holdup problem. Moreover, there is negative effect of capital
on liquidity creation (Diamond, and Rajan, 2001).
Non-performing loans (NPLs) are loans that a bank customer fails to meet his/her
contractual obligations in form of principal or interest payments exceeding 90 days.
Liquidity risk is the outcome of credit risk, which is the inability of borrowers to meet
their repayment obligation. NPLs are loans that give negative impact to banks in
developing the economy.
A definite fact, financial systems are responsible for managing complex and advance
financial transactions. The banking systems play the central role of mobilizing and
allocating resources in the market, savings and surplus funds channeled to deficit
units. Financial institutions oversee that operations are being run effectively and
efficiently. The financial term for this activity is known as “Risk Transformation”.
Granting loans generate most profits for banks. However, it involves high risk and
eventually the main contributor to non-performing loans (NPLs). A core substance for
sustained and rapid economic progress is financial stability. Financial stability
measures are to much being used, among various indicators of financial stability
include banks’ non-performing loan reflecting on its asset quality, credit risk and also
its efficiency in the allocation of resources to productive sectors. NPLs are the main
8
contributor to liquidity risk, which exposes banks to insufficient funds for operations
(Pandey, 2005).
According to the “too big to fail” argument, large banks would benefit from an
implicit guarantee, thus decrease their cost of funding and allows them to invest in
riskier assets. Therefore, “too big to fail” status of large banks could lead to moral
hazard behavior and excessive risk exposure. If big banks are seeing themselves as
“too big to fail”, their motivation to hold liquid assets is limited. In case of a liquidity
shortage, they rely on a liquidity assistance of lender of last resort. Thus, large banks
are likely to perform higher levels of liquidity creation that exposes them to losses
associated with having more illiquid assets to satisfy the liquidity demands of
customers. Hence, there would be positive relationship between bank size and
illiquidity (Iannotta, 2007). Since small banks are likely to be focused on traditional
intermediation activities and transformation activities they do have small amount of
liquidity. Hence, there would be negative relationship between bank size and
illiquidity (Rauch, 2008).
There are economies of scale in cash management. This would lead larger firms to
hold less cash than smaller firms. It is argued that the fees incurred in obtaining funds
through borrowing are uncorrelated with the size of the loan, indicating that such fees
are a fixed amount. Thus, raising funds is relatively more expensive to smaller firms
encouraging them to hold more cash than larger firms. Firms with more volatile cash
flows face a higher probability of experiencing cash shortages due to unexpected cash
flow deterioration. Thus, cash flow uncertainty should be positively related with cash
holdings (Miller and Orr, 1966).
A bank's liquidity is determined by its ability to meet all of its anticipated expenses,
such as funding new loans or fulfilling customer account withdrawals, using only
liquid assets. The anticipated expenses can only be an estimate of how much
customers may withdraw from savings or how many new mortgages may be issued
advantageously. Hence banks particularly have to err on the safe side, maintaining
9
liquidity at all times without fail. The bigger the cushion of liquid assets relative to
anticipated liabilities, the greater the bank's liquidity is and vice versa (Claire, 2021).
According to the theory of bank liquidity and financial fragility, the relationship
between banks liquidity preference and the business cycle is fundamental to explain
the inherent instability of the capitalist system as a somehow increase by internal
growth. In periods of economic expansion, which are characterized by high degree of
confidence of the economic units about their profitability, there is a rise in the level of
investment. During this expansion, economic units decrease their liquidity preference,
preferring riskier capital assets with higher return. In this environment, economic
units are more likely to hold less liquid capital assets and to incur short-term debt with
higher interest rates. The loan able fund theory of interest states that the supply for
loan, illiquid assets for banks, increases when the economy is at boom or going out of
recession.
Inflation is the rate at which the value of a currency is falling and consequently the
general level of prices for goods and services is rising. In also common sense,
inflation reduces the real value of money, and thus makes the liquidity constraint
more binding. This problem can be resolved by having a financial intermediary which
channels the funds from entrepreneurs with excess liquidity to those lacking liquidity.
It means the more inflation rate the more level of liquidity is obvious. However, more
researchers emphasize the importance of access of information unequally in credit
markets stakeholder and demonstrate how increases in the rate of inflation adversely
affect credit market clash with negative reflection for financial sector, both bank and
equity market, performance and therefore long-run real activity. When we assumed
information factor constant increase in inflation rate cause the financial sector fewer
10
loans, resource allocation is less efficient, and intermediary activities tend to diminish
which cause adverse effects on capital/long term investment. In turn, the amount of
liquid or short term assets held by economic agents including banks will rise with the
rise in inflation (Huybens, 1998).
Bunda and Desquilbet (2008) investigated the determinants of liquidity risk of banks
from emerging economies for a sample of commercial banks in 36 emerging countries
between 1995 and 2000. Collected secondary data were analyzed with panel data
regression analysis method. It was found that there is positive and statistically
significant effect of capital adequacy, lending interest rate, inflation, GDP growth on
liquidity of banks. On the other hand, the presence of prudential regulation and
financial crises showed negative and significant impact on bank liquidity position.
However, the effect of bank size is insignificant.
Subedi and Neupane (2013) examined the impact of bank’s specific and macro
economical variables’ effects in their liquidity level in Nepalese commercial banks.
11
Study has covered the period from 2002/03 to 2011/12. The data for the study was
based on primary data collected by questionnaire method and quarterly publications
of banks as a secondary source. Data were analyzed through different statistical tools
such as descriptive statistics, correlation and multiple regressions with variance
inflation factor. The result of regression analysis showed that bank size had positive
and significant impact and inflation rate had positive and insignificant effect on
bank’s liquidity. Similarly, it showed that capital adequacy, bank size, share of non-
performing loans in the total volume of loans and liquidity premium paid by
borrowers had negative and statistically significant repress on banks liquidity. Growth
rate of gross domestic product, short term interest rate and inflation rate had negative
and statistically insignificant impact on banks liquidity. And, loan growth rate had
positive and statistically insignificant impact on banks liquidity capital.
Gautam (2014) investigated the determinants of banks liquidity and their impact on
financial performance with empirical study of commercial banks in Nepal of the
period of 2005 to 2014. Various specific and macroeconomic variables are taken into
consideration as the independent variables. Multiple regression models have been
used for the study. The result shows bank size, capital adequacy and inflation rate
had a positive impact on bank liquidity in contrary non-performing loans, profitability
and GDP growth rate had negative impact on bank liquidity. In significance concept
capital adequacy ratio, non-performing loan and profitability were significant but
bank size, GDP growth rate and inflation rate have insignificant with liquidity.
Moussa (2015) explored the factors which influence bank liquidity in Tunisian
context. Study covered the period of 2000 to 2010, sampled 18 commercial banks and
collected data through annual reports of bank. The methodology have been used for
the study were static panel and panel dynamic. Two measures of liquidity; liquid
assets /total assets and total loan/total deposits were estimated. It was found that
financial performance, capital/total assets, operating cost/total assets, growth rate of
GDP, inflation rate, delayed liquidity have significant impacts on bank liquidity while
size, total loan/total assets, financial cost/total credit, total deposit /total assets does
not have significant impact on bank liquidity.
commercial bank data of the period 2010/11 to 2015/16. Data were assessed mainly
by secondary sources, annual financial reports and economic survey reports. This
study has taken GDP, return on assets, return on equity, non-performing loans, capital
adequacy ratio and inter-bank rate as independent variables. Collected data were
analyzed by mean, standard deviation, correlation and the regression analysis. The
study reveals that there is significant influence on liquidity by GDP, return on assets,
return on equity, non-performing loans and Inter-bank rate.
Bista (2018) examined the effects of bank’s specific and macroeconomic variables on
banks’ liquidity in the case of Nepal. Study took the period of 2005 to 2016. This
study has taken liquid asset /total asset and liquid asset/deposit and borrowing to
measure the liquidity of Nepal by selecting the bank specific and macro-economic
variables of Nepal. The multiple regressions model has adopted. The study concluded
that, in relation to financial performance measured by liquid assets/total assets; CAR,
real GDP and deposit have significant impact but inflation and bank size do have
insignificant impact. Bank size, real GDP, deposit and inflation have positive
coefficient, but CAR have negative coefficient. On the other hand, in determinants of
liquidity measured by liquidity /deposit+ borrowing; CAR, real GDP and deposit have
significant impact on the determining the liquidity but inflation and bank size had
insignificant impact. Bank size, real GDP, deposit and inflation have positive
correlation but CAR have negative correlation.
Khanal (2019) studied the effect of bank’s specific and macroeconomic variables on
banks’ liquidity and their impact on financial performance in case of Nepal. The study
took the sampling period of 2005/06 to 2015/16. This study has taken liquid asset
13
/total asset and liquid asset/deposit and borrowing to measure the liquidity of Nepal
by selecting the bank specific and macro-economic variables of Nepal. Multiple
regression model has used. The study concluded that ROA has positive significant
impact whereas ROE, Size and inflation have negative and significant impact on
liquidity. Similarly CAR and GDP has negative insignificant impact on loan to
deposit ratio whereas, NPL has positive insignificant impact. This study concludes
that ROA, ROE, bank size and inflation are major determinants of banks’ liquidity
14
Khanal, (2019) Determinants of Banks The Regression Analysis Results revealed that ROA has positive significant impact whereas ROE,
Liquidity and Their Impact on size and inflation have negative significant impact on liquidity. Similarly
Financial Performance: CAR and GDP has negative insignificant impact on loan to deposit ratio
Empirical Study on Commercial whereas, NPL has positive insignificant impact. This study concludes that
Banks in Nepal ROA, ROE, bank size and inflation are major determinants of Bank
liquidity
Subedi&Neupane (2013) Determinants of Banks The Regression Analysis Study found capital adequacy and share of non-performing loans had a
'Liquidity and Their Impact on negative and statistically significant effect on the bank liquidity of the
Financial Performance in commercial banks whereas loan growth, GDP growth rate, liquidity
Nepalese Commercial Banks premium and short term interest rates had a negative and statistically
insignificant effect on the bank liquidly of the commercial bank. Similarly,
bank size had a positive and a statistically significant effect and the
inflation rate had a positive but insignificant effect on the bank liquidity
of the commercial banks.
Vodova, (2011) Liquidity of Czech Commercial The Regression Analysis Found positive link between bank liquidity and capital adequacy, share of
Banks and Its’ Determinants, non-performing loans and interest rates on loans and on interbank
transaction, negative influence of inflation rate, business cycle and
financial crisis on liquidity, the relation between size of banks and their
liquidity is ambiguous.
Gautam, (2014) Determinants of Banks The Regression Analysis It has found bank size, capital adequacy and inflation rate had a positive
Liquidity and Their Impact on impact on bank liquidity but non-performing loans, profitability and GDP
16
Financial Performance: growth rate had negative impact on bank liquidity of the commercial banks.
Empirical Study on Statistically, capital adequacy, non-performing loan and profitability were
Commercial Banks in Nepal significant but bank size, GDP growth rate and inflation rate were
insignificant. The study concluded capital adequacy, non-performing loan,
bank size, profitability, GDP growth rate and inflation rate as determinants
of bank liquidity of the commercial banks.
Sheefeni&Nyambe, (2016) Macro-economic Determinants Unit root, bound test for Results revealed that real gross domestic product is the main determinant of
of Commercial Banks' Liquidity co integration and error commercial banks’ liquidity in Namibia. It was also found that monetary
in Namibia correction model were policy rate is positively related to banks’ liquidity though statistically
employed insignificant. On the contrary, the results revealed a negative relationship
between inflation and commercial banks’ liquidity.
Tseganesh (2012 Determinants of Commercial Document survey Result stated that capital adequacy, bank size, share of nonperforming loans
Banks’ Liquidity in Ethiopia approach in the total volume of loans, interest rate margin, inflation rate and short
term interest rate had positive and statistically significant impact on banks
liquidity. Real GDP growth rate and loan growth had statistically
insignificant impact on banks liquidity.
From above literature review it can be concluded that in some study area researcher’s conclusions are contradictory based on researcher’s study
time and context especially on bank size and profitability effect on liquidity level of banks. Collectively, all researchers found positive relation
between bank liquidity and capital adequacy, share of non-performing loans and interest rates on loans and on interbank transaction and negative
relation with inflation rate, business cycle and financial crisis on liquidity level.
17
The conceptual framework is developed from the review of literature discussed above.
It shows the relationship between the independent variables such as bank specific and
macroeconomic and dependent variables such as bank liquid assets to total assets ratio
( ) and liquid assets to deposit plus borrowing ( ). Macroeconomic variables
consist of GDP and inflation whereas; a bank specific variable consists of capital
adequacy ratio, shares of non-performing loan, amount of deposit and bank size. The
following figure shows the dependent and independent variables.
Independent variables
- Inflation rate
- GDP
Independent variables:
Capital adequacy shows the strength of bank capital against the vagaries of economic
and financial environment. Generally, the capital is positively related to the financial
performance of banks. The capital of bank is a common equity plus qualifying
cumulative perpetual preferred stock plus minority interest in equity account of
consolidated subsidiaries. Thus, it is a primary means of protection against the risk of
insolvency and failure. The financial fragility crowding out deposit hypothesis predict
negative relation whereas, risk absorption hypothesis suggests positive relationship
between capital adequacy and liquidity.
Bank size
Bank size measures its general capacity to undertake its intermediary functions. Large
banks are likely to perform higher levels of liquidity creation that exposes them to
19
losses associated with having to sale illiquid assets to satisfy the liquidity demands of
customers. However, since small banks are likely to be focused on traditional
intermediation activities and transformation activities and vice versa to larger firms.
Hence small firms do have small amount of liquidity and larger company has higher
size of liquidity.
Deposit
GDP
It is the largest quantitative measure of total economic activity. It is the sum total
value of goods and services that is produced within the boundary of country in the
specified periods of time. It is the monetary value of goods and service that is
produced within the national economy. It is one of the strong determinants of liquidity
because there are so many factors linked with GDP. Among of two types of GDP this
study has taken real GDP.
Inflation
Inflation is the sustainable increase in general price level that are the value of money
decrease. An increase in the rate of inflation drives down the real rate of return not
just on money, but on assets in general. The implied reduction in real returns
exacerbates credit market frictions. Since these market frictions lead to the rationing
of credit, credit rationing becomes more severe as inflation rises. As a result, the
financial sector makes fewer loans, resource allocation is less efficient, and
20
Dependent variables:
Bank liquidity
The bank liquidity as a dependent variable consists of Liquid assets to total assets (L1)
and Liquidity assets to total deposits plus short term borrowing.
Liquid assets to total assets ratio gives information about the general liquidity shock
absorption capacity of a bank. As the general rule, the higher the share of liquid assets
in total assets, the higher the capacity to absorb liquidity shock, given that market
liquidity is the same for all banks in the sample. Nevertheless, high value of this ratio
may be also interpreted as inefficiency. Since liquid assets yield lower income
liquidity bears high opportunity costs for the bank. Therefore, it is necessary to
optimize the relation between liquidity and profitability. According to the NRB
guidelines liquid assets of banks include cash on hand, deposit in other banks, and
short term government securities, money at call. This measure of liquidity was taken
as benchmark measure. = Liquid Assets / Total Assets
This liquidity ratio identifies liquidity trend of bank. This ratio focuses on bank
sensitivity towards sudden withdrawal of deposits. If the ratio is greater than 1, the
bank is able to meet its obligation in terms of withdrawal of deposits Gitman, (2000).
It is more focused on the bank’s sensitivity to selected types of funding it has been
included deposits of households, enterprises and other financial institutions. The ratio
should therefore capture the bank’s vulnerability related to these funding sources.
= Liquid Assets / (Deposit + Borrowing).
21
Research gap is the difference between previous work done and the present research
work. There has been lot of research works and studies undertaken to examine the
variables that affect to liquidity level with sampling various bank and financial
institutions. However, the purpose of study is quite different from the previous studies
in terms of the time it covers from 2009/10 to 2019/20. Samples are taken based on
stratified sampling methods considering firstly types of commercial bank and
secondly the bank size. It was found most of the researchers used convenience
sampling method. In this study micro environment variables, capital adequacy ratio,
share of non-performing loan, deposits amount and bank size, macro environment
variables, GDP and inflation rate, has taken. In this ground this study is different from
previous studies titled determinants of liquidity level in Nepalese commercial banks.
22
CHAPTER III
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
This chapter puts lights on the research process and methods design to meet the stated
objectives of the study. The research methodology explores the research process
regarding the exploration the impact of particular macro and micro variables in
liquidity level of bank. The broad process of research methodology has been further
categorized for simplicity into various subtopics which are as follows:
The research design is specification of methods and procedures for acquiring the
needed information to solve the problem. Research methodology is the process of
assigning at solution of the problem through systematic way for dealing with data
inputs, data presentation and analysis, and research output. In this study descriptive
research design will use.
The study is based on two types of research design namely descriptive and analytical.
To describe the nature and behavior of variables, descriptive design is used. To
examine and analyze the relationships casual comparative research design has been
used. The method of this study is quantitative approach. A descriptive tools,
descriptive statistics, model summary and ANOVA are used. As a analytical tools,
correlation and regression are applied to analyze data collected from the annual
reports of the sample taken banks for identifying direction and significance level of
selected independent variables on determining liquidity level.
The total number of commercial bank represent as the total population for the purpose
of this study. Hence, the population consists of twenty-seven commercial banks. Out
of the total population nine banks are used as samples. Banks have been taken as a
23
1. Government bank
- Rastriya Banijya bank
Without any data, nothing can be studied. So for any statistical investigation, the
collection of data of data is more important. The study is based on secondary data in
nature. Availability of data about various aspects of financial information and
macroeconomic variables are as follows:
In addition to these, different published articles, report, book, journal, and graduate
research project are also used.
Analysis is an important part of the study under which data are presented and
analyzed in useful format. Here the collected data are classified, edited, and presented
in the appropriate tables for analysis and interpretation and made up-to-date. The
obtained secondary data are calculated using SPSS for desire results. In SPSS
software, used descriptive and analytical tools for achieving the objectives of the
study. Basically simple analytical statistical tools such as tabling, covariance and
regression are adopted in this study. Especially descriptive analysis method is used for
the study.
This thesis work is based on financial as well as statistical analysis. Various tools and
techniques are applied for making the thesis work more presentable. Some important
statistical tools have been used to present and analysis the data for achieving the
objectives are as follows:
Ratios are the most commonly used financial tools which will be used in this study as
well. These ratios help in simplifying the annual reports data into more understanding
view point which aid in predicting the future and knowing the present. The ratios are
used in this study are as bellow:
1. Liquid assets to total assets ratio ( ) Liquid assets to total assets ratio should give
us information about the general liquidity shock absorption capacity of a bank. As
a general rule, the higher the share of liquid assets in total assets, the higher the
capacity to absorb liquidity shock, given that market liquidity is the same for all
banks in the sample
2. Liquid assets to deposit plus borrowing ratio ( ) The liquidity ratio identifies
liquidity trend of bank. This ratio focuses on bank sensitivity towards sudden
withdrawal of deposits. If the ratio is greater than 1, the bank is able to meet its
obligation in terms of withdrawal of deposits. Lower value indicates a bank’s
increased sensitivity related to deposit withdrawals.
3. Capital adequacy is one of the elements that indicate the measurement of financial
strength of a bank. It is the capital position of the bank which somewhat assure
depositors that they will be compensated if any failure occurs. The capital
adequacy ratio here is extracted from annual report which is calculated as the ratio
of regulatory capital (tier I + tier II) to total risk weighted assets.
4. Share of nonperforming loan is also the one independent variables using in this
study. It is the portion of loan and advance bank assumed to be default on the total
loan and advances. Share of non-performing loan is extracted from annual report of
particular commercial bank.
1. Descriptive analysis:
The mean represents the average value of the variable while median reveals
the centre value of the data. Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion
of a set of data from its mean. Maximum and minimum shows lowest and
highest values of the data. Small standard deviation shows data point is
inclined to be extremely close to mean while high value of standard deviation
shows data set is border out over a large range of value
26
3. Regression analysis
The models employed in this study intend to analyze the relationship between
internal as well as macroeconomic determinants of liquidity. The following
regression model is used in this study in an attempt to examine the empirical
relationship between the bank’s specific and macroeconomic variables on
liquidity of Nepalese commercial bank. Therefore, the following model
equation is designed to test the hypothesis. From the conceptual framework
the function of dependent variables (i.e. Determinants) takes the following
form:
More specifically, the given model has been segmented into following models:
Model I
Model II
Where,
= Constant term
CAR = Capital Adequacy Ratio
TA = Bank size defined by the log of total assets
DEP = Deposit of bank on the year.
27
4. ANOVA
CHAPTER IV
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
This chapter is based on analysis and interpretation of data collected during the study
of bank specific and macroeconomic determinants of liquidity of commercial banks in
Nepal. The data for this study was obtained from published financial statements of the
selected commercial banks as sample, economic survey report conducted by national
bureau of statistics and Nepal Rastra Bank's supervision report. Data has been
analyzed with reference to the objectives of study as mentioned in the chapter earlier.
These secondary data were calculated by using SPSS software. In this section, the
first section deals with determinants of liquidity. Then, the descriptive statistics and
the correlation analysis are discussed. Finally, the results of the regression analysis are
discussed by supporting empirical evidence. Hence, the systematic and orderly
interpretations and analysis of findings is discussed in this chapter. Following table
shows description and analysis of variables. It contained the dependent and
independent variables, mentioned to explain their relationship.
The detailing and descriptive analysis of nine commercial banks, 2009/10 to 2019/20
of independent variables are as follows:
Table 4.1 shows the distribution of capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of selected
commercial bank of sampled 11 fiscal years. Maximum CAR of NIC ASIA bank is
12.69% citing in fiscal year 2015/16 and minimum CAR is 8.12 in fiscal year
2019/20.17.61% is maximum CAR of NMB and 8.84% is minimum CAR. RBB got
more fluctuation on CAR minimums of -29.46% to maximum of 13.39%. In fiscal
year 2010/11 SANIMA got 27.54% which is maximum CAR value of SANIMA bank
and 10.37% in fiscal year 2019/20 is minimum value. SIDDHARTH bank seems
more consistent in terms of CAR with having maximum value of 11.2% and
minimum value of 7.58% in fiscal year 2016/17 and 2014/15 respectively. Maximum
CAR of NIBL bank is 13.05% citing in fiscal year 2015/16 and minimum CAR is
8.5% in fiscal year 2009/10. In fiscal year 2017/18 NABIL got 11.81% which is
maximum CAR value of NABIL bank and 8.77% in fiscal year 2009/10 is minimum
value. And finally in fiscal year 2017/18 CAR is 12.68, is maximum and CAR of
8.39% in fiscal year 2009/10 is minimum value of Everest bank.
Table 4.2 shows descriptive statistics- mean, maximum and minimum values and
standard deviation of each year’s capital adequacy ratio associated with selected
commercial banks for eleven-year period. The mean of capital adequacy ratio of EBL,
NABIL, NIBL, NICASIA, NMB, PRIME, RBB, SANIMA and SIDDARTHA are
percentage of10.49, 10.23, 10.21, 10.59, 12.46, 11.69, 0.83, 14.12and 9.24 with
respective standard deviation of 1.633, 1.431, 1.52, 1.675, 2.76, 1.07, 14.79, 5.331and
30
1.155 These values show that the highest average capital adequacy ratio contains in
NMB and lowest in RBB with percentage of 12.46 and 0.83 respectively. The
collected data relating to capital adequacy ratio of RBB bank is more deviate from it’s
mean value having higher standard deviation, concluding comparative higher risk for
investing and NABIL have lower with 1.0437 have lower risk for investment.
SoNPL is 2.75, is maximum and SoNPL of 0.53 in fiscal year 2009/10 is minimum
value.
The table 4.4 shows descriptive statistics; mean, maximum and minimum values and
standard deviation of each year’s share of non-performing loan associated with
selected commercial banks for eleven-year period. The mean of share of
nonperforming loan of EBL, NABIL, NIBL, NICASIA, NMB, PRIME, RBB,
SANIMA and SIDDARTHA are percentage of 0.436, 1.45, 1.43, 1.014, 1.113,
1.1718, 6.06, 0.1153 and 1.4336 with respective standard deviation of 0.288, 0.644,
0.824, 0.816, 0.785, 0.7294, 2.36, 0.1747 and 0.680. These values show that the
highest average share of non-performing loan contains in RBB and lowest in
SANIMA with percentage of 6.061 and 0.1153 respectively. The mean value of share
of non-performing loan of RBB bank is more deviate from its’ mean value having
higher standard deviation.
32
Table 4.5 consists of the total assets (bank size) of selected commercial bank of
sampled 11 fiscal years. Maximum total asset of Everest bank is RS.185023189 citing
in fiscal year 2019/20 and minimum total assets is Rs. 41382760 in fiscal year
2009/10. RS.160978071 is maximum total assets of NABIL and Rs. 52151684 is
minimum total assets. Similarly maximum total asset of NIBL is Rs. 171893546
citing in fiscal year 2017/18 and minimum total assets is Rs. 57305413 in fiscal year
2009/10. In fiscal year 2019/20 NIC ASIA bank got Rs. 251852885 which is
maximum total assets value of NIC ASIA bank and Rs. 15543572 in fiscal year
2009/10 is minimum value. The maximum total asset of NMB bank is Rs. 179423373
citing in fiscal year 2019/20 and minimum total assets is Rs. 13226578 correspondent
to in fiscal year 2009/10. In fiscal year 2009/10 I found Prime bank with minimum
value of total assets value of RS. 20218830 and Rs. 152182993 is maximum total
assets value of Prime bank in fiscal year 2019/20. RBB got comparatively high values
in terms of total assets value with having maximum value of Rs. 266390912 and
minimum value of Rs. 67910654 in fiscal year 2019/20 and 2009/10 respectively.
SANIMA bank got comparatively less in terms of total assets value with having
maximum value of Rs. 126310981 and minimum value of Rs. 7238558 in fiscal year
2019/20 and 2009/10 respectively. And finally in fiscal year 2019/20 total assets is
Rs.182468449 is maximum and total assets of Rs.22802429 and in fiscal year 2009/10
is minimum value.
Table 4.6 demonstrates descriptive statistics; mean, maximum and minimum values
and standard deviation of each year’s size of bank (log10total assets) associated with
selected commercial banks for eleven-year sample period. The mean of size of bank
of EBL, NABIL, NIBL, NICASIA, NMB, PRIME, RBB, SANIMA and
SIDDARTHA are Rs. of 18.31, 18.33, 18.34, 17.95, 17.66, 17.71, 18.73, 17.39 and
17.87 with respective standard deviation of 0.521, 0.423, 0.4221, 1.003, 0.93, 0.67,
0.453, 0.9962 and 0.746. These values show that the highest average bank size
contains in RBB and lowest in SANIMA with Rs. of 18.73 and 17.39 respectively.
The total asset of NICASIA bank is more deviate from it mean value having higher
standard deviation and NIBL have lower with 0.4221. Collectively having lower
standard deviation collected data assume to be more realistic.
35
Table 4.7 consists of the amount of deposit of selected commercial bank of sampled
11 fiscal years. Maximum amount of deposit of Everest bank is RS. 143545475 citing
in fiscal year 2019/20 and minimum amount of deposit is Rs. 36932310in fiscal year
2009/10. RS.134810669 is maximum amount deposit of NABIL and Rs. 46410701 is
minimum deposit amount. NIBL got minimum of Rs.50094725 to maximum of
Rs.136585576. In fiscal year 2019/20 NIC ASIA bank got Rs. 201630384 which is
maximum deposit amount value of NIC ASIA bank and Rs. 12480760 in fiscal year
2009/10 is minimum value. Maximum deposit amount of NMB bank is Rs.
131660368 citing in fiscal year 2019/20 and minimum deposit amount is Rs.
10110689 correspondent to in fiscal year 2009/10. In fiscal year 2009/10 I found
Prime bank with minimum value of deposit amount value of RS. 17883518 and Rs.
119441613 is maximum deposit amount value of Prime bank in fiscal year 2019/20.
RBB got comparatively high values in terms of deposit amount value with having
maximum value of Rs. 230827711 and minimum value of Rs. 68625869 in fiscal year
2019/20 and 2009/10 respectively SANIMA bank got comparatively less in terms of
deposit amount value with having maximum value of Rs. 107250202 and minimum
value of Rs. 5760495 in fiscal year 2019/20 and 2009/10 respectively. And finally in
fiscal year 2019/20 deposit amount is Rs. 139609497, is maximum and deposit
amount of Rs. 20197029 in fiscal year 2009/10 is minimum value in Siddhartha bank.
Table 4.8 demonstrates descriptive statistics- mean, maximum and minimum values
and standard deviation of each year’s amount of deposit (log10total deposit)
associated with selected commercial banks for eleven-year sampled period. The mean
of amount of deposit of EBL, NABIL, NIBL, NICASIA, NMB, PRIME, RBB,
SANIMA and SIDDARTHA are Rs. of 18.13, 18.17, 18.16, 17.75, 17.44, 17.53,
18.60, 17.17 and 17.68 with respective standard deviation of 0.462, 0.403, 0.373,
0.997, 0.883, 0.611, 0.39, 1.031, and 0.685. These values show that the highest
average amount of deposit contains in RBB and lowest in SANIMA with Rs.18.60
and 17.17 respectively. The amount of deposit of SANIMA bank is more deviate from
it’s mean value having higher standard deviation and NIBL have lower with 0.373.
Collectively all sampled banks, having lower standard deviation collected data
assume to be more realistic going to lead.
Table 4.9 consists of detail about external economic environment viz, real GDP and
Inflation rate of sampled 11 fiscal years. Here maximum GDP value of Rs. 3767.04
citing in fiscal year 2019/20 and minimum GDP value is Rs. 1,192.80 in fiscal year
2009/10. Similarly maximum inflation rate 9.9% citing in fiscal year 2015/16 and
2011/12 and minimum inflation rate of4.2% in fiscal year 2017/18.
38
Table 4.10 demonstrates descriptive statistics; mean, maximum value, minimum value
and standard deviation of each year’s macroeconomic variables, namely nominal
GDP and Inflation rate of eleven year sampled periods. It clearly shows the average
GDP is Rs. 4.76 which ranges from Rs. 4.40 to Rs.5.12. The standard deviation is
0.236. The average inflation rate is 7.53% which ranges from 4.20% to 9.90% and
standard deviation is 2.25.
Table 4.11 showing overall descriptive statistic-mean, maximum and minimum values
and standard deviation of , and various selected independent variables. The
mean value of L1 is 0.208 during the period 2009/10 to 2019/20.The standard
deviation of is 5.445% which show average variation from its mean value
calculated from ratio during the period. The minimum and maximum values are
0.0764 and 0.4421. The determinants of liquidity are measured by liquid assets/
(Short term deposit +borrowing) indicating by show that mean value is 0.248
39
which is slightly higher than mean value of with the maximum value of is
0.5084 and minimum value is 0.079.There is slightly higher dispersion of towards
its mean value among banks that is shown by standard deviation is 8.67%
On the one hand there are micro economic variables that cause to differentiate in
liquidity level of organizations. Here in table the capital adequacy ratio shows the
proportion of owner's equity to total risk weighted assets. The mean value of CAR is
9.95% which is higher than minimum requirement of 10% Nepal Rastra Bank's
directives 2016 and Basel II requirements. The standard deviation of the CAR is
6.42% which is moderate variation. The minimum and maximum values of CAR are -
29.46% and 27.54% respectively. Where minimum percentage of share of non-
performing minimum value is almost zero ranging to 10.91 percentage leading to 1.6
percentage of mean value which have standard deviation of 1.945.The bank size
signified by varies from a minimum value of 15.79to maximum value
of 19.40 leading to an average of 18.0233. The standard deviation of bank size is
0.810 from mean value. Likewise, the varies from minimum 15.57 to
maximum 19.26 leading to average of 17.83. The standard deviation is 0.8007.
Correlation is a statistical technique that can show whether and how strongly pairs of
variables which can numerically related continuous variables. An intelligence
40
correlation analysis can lead to greater understanding the data with measuring, degree
to which two or more variables are associated with or related to each other or not.
For correlation analysis we can measures four types of correlations namely Pearson,
Kendall rank, Spearman and Point-biserial correlation. Among of them the most
widely used bi-variant correlation statistics is the Pearson product-movement
coefficient, commonly called the Pearson correlation which was used in this study.
Correlation coefficient between two variables ranges from +1 (i.e. perfect positive
relationship) to -1 (i.e. perfect negative relationship). The size of absolute value
indicates the strength of relationship, where 0= no relationship and 1 indicated that
the value of one variable can be exactly determined by knowing the value of other.
Subsequently, the sample size is the key element to determine whether or not the
correlation coefficient is different from zero/statistically significant.
41
Table 4.12 Pearson correlation between (liquid assets/total assets) and (liquid assets/ deposit + borrowing) and independent variable
L1 L2 CAR SoNPL Bank size Dep GDP Inf
L1 Pearson Correlation 1
Sig. (2-tailed)
L2 Pearson Correlation .938** 1
Sig. (2-tailed) 0
CAR Pearson Correlation -.202* -0.071 1
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.036 0.494
**
SoNPL Pearson Correlation .295 0.164 -.746** 1
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.004 0.112 0
Banksize Pearson Correlation -0.068 0.014 -0.186 .222* 1
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.514 0.89 0.071 0.03
*
Deposit Pearson Correlation -0.044 -0.013 -..237 .271** .987** 1
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.67 0.9 0.021 0.008 0
** *
GDP Pearson Correlation -.350 -0.187 .216 -0.121 .789** .747** 1
Sig. (2-tailed) 0 0.07 0.036 0.241 0 0
** **
Inflation Pearson Correlation .330 0.161 -0.195 0.119 -.588 -.533** -.761** 1
Sig. (2-tailed) 0.001 0.12 0.058 0.249 0 0 0
Table 4.12 demonstrates the Bivariate Pearson's correlation coefficient between level
of liquidity measures by and and variables affecting its’ liquidity level. It shows
that is positively correlated with share of non-performing loan and inflation rate
with value of 0.295 and 0.33 respectively, having medium degree of strength in
relationship. Here in both case significance level is less than 0.15 so, both correlation
is statistically significant. In contrast is negatively correlated with CAR, bank size,
deposit and GDP with the negative value of 0.202, 0.068, 0.044, indicating weaker
level of strength in relationship, 0.35 with GDP indicates medium level of strength of
relationship. Whereas have positive correlated with share of non-performing loan,
bank size and inflation rate with values of 0.164, 0.014 and 0.161 respectively,
indicating weaker level of strength in relationship, have negatively correlation
with, CAR, amount of deposit and GDP with the coefficient of 0.071, 0.013 and 0.187
respectively, indicating weaker level of strength in relationship.
According to and showing CAR, amount of deposit and GDP has negative
relationship with bank liquidity in Nepal having negative Pearson correlation value.
This shows that change in CAR, amount of deposit and GDP cause to inverse change
in liquidity level of Nepalese commercial banks.
Accordance to above table and has statistically significant and positive linear
relationship with correlation of 0.938. It observes high degree of correlation between
dependent variables.
43
Regression analysis is further carried to test the validity of tally with the result
obtained from correlation analysis, test hypothesis and to test multiple regression
models.
The model summary gives the total variability in the dependent variable explained by
the model. This indicates the percentage of the variability in the dependent variable
explained by factors not included on the study. The regression model for L1 is
Real gross domestic product (log10 of real GDP in millions rupees), bank size (log5 of
total assets in millions rupees inflation (INF in percentage) and deposit (log5 of
deposit) are independent variables and determinants of liquidity is measures by liquid
asset/total assets and liquid assets/ (deposit+ borrowing) are considered dependent
variables.
44
Table 4.13 demonstrates the model summery. Here, multiple correlation coefficient
R= 0.528 indicates that there was a high degree positive correlation between CAR,
share of non-performing loan, bank size, GDP, deposit level and inflation liquidity
measured by . The value R-Square is 0.279, indicates that 27.9% of variations in
liquidity can explained by independent variables included in the model. However, the
remaining 72.1% variation in liquidity caused by others independent variables that are
not included in the model.
Table 4.14 demonstrates the model summery. Here, multiple correlation coefficient
R= .506 indicated that there is strong positive correlation between CAR, share of
non-performing loan ,bank size, GDP, deposit and inflation rate on liquidity measured
by in Nepali commercial banks. Also, the value R-Square is 0.256, indicates that
25.6% of variations in liquidity can explained by independent variables included in
45
the model. However, the remaining 74.4% variation in liquidity caused by others
independent variables that are not included in the model.
4.2.2.2 ANOVA
The study sought to establish analysis of variance (ANOVA) which was a collection
of statistical models used to analyze the differences among group means and their
association. The ANOVA statistical presentation was used to present the regression
model significance.
Table 4.15 consists of ANOVA. In the table significance value is 0.000 which is less
than alpha value 0.050. Therefore the model is a good predicator of the relationship
between the dependent and Independent Variables. As a result, the independent
variables CAR, share of non-performing loan, bank Size, GDP, inflation, deposit and
dependent variables liquidity measure by is significant in explaining the variance
between independent variables and dependent variables.
46
Table 4.16 shows the ANOVA. Here, the significance value is 0.000 which is less
than alpha value 0.050. Therefore the model is a good predicator of the relationship
between the dependent and independent variables. As a result, the independent
variables namely CAR, share of non-performing loan, bank Size, GDP, inflation,
deposit and dependent variables liquidity measured by is significant in explaining
the variance between independent variables and dependent variables.
The results are based on panel data of 9 Nepalese commercial banks with 99
observations for the period of 2008/09 to 2019/20 by using linear regression model.
The following panel regression models were estimated;
Table 4.17 Regression coefficient liquid asset /total asset and affecting factors
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Standardized T Sig.
Coefficients Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta
(Constant) 0.339 0.26 1.304 0.196
CAR 0.003 0.002 0.232 1.609 0.1
SoNPL 0.01 0.005 0.258 1.851 0.068
Bank size 0.081 0.062 0.882 1.308 0.194
Deposit -0.03 0.06 -0.327 -0.511 0.61
GDP -0.238 0.071 -0.704 -3.36 0.001
Inflation 0.005 0.005 0.145 1.008 0.316
Table 4.17 demonstrates the result to identify whether the independent variables are
statistically significant taking significance level of 0.10 and direction of relation. Here
in table, value of ‘p’ of SONPL and GDP are less than significance level 0.10 with
value of 0.10, 0.068 and 0.01 respectively so they are statistically significant with
liquidity measured by , but bank size, deposit and inflation rate have higher ‘p’
value then significance level with values of 0.194, 0.610 and 0.318 so they are
statistically insignificant with liquidity measured by .
and 0.05% respectively. On the other hand ‘B’ values of amount of deposit and GDP
are -0.030 and -0.238 respectively. We can conclude that Rs. 1 change in deposit will
cause inverse change in liquidity by Rs. 0.030 and same way Rs 1 increase in amount
of GDP will cause decrease in liquidity level by Rs. 0.238 and vice versa.
Table 4.18 Regression coefficient for liquid asset/ deposit + borrowing and
affecting factors
Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Standardized T Sig.
Coefficients Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta
(Constant) 0.256 0.304 0.842 0.402
CAR 0.003 0.002 0.258 1.774 0.08
SoNPL 0.01 0.006 0.214 1.1523 0.131
Bank size 0.306 0.073 2.858 4.209 0
Deposit -0.24 0.07 -2.211 -3.434 0.001
GDP -0.283 0.083 -0.721 -3.417 0.001
Inflation 0.006 0.006 0.155 1.07 0.288
Table 4.18 demonstrates the result to identify whether the independent variables are
statistically significant taking significance level of 0.10 and direction of relation. Here
in table, value of ‘p’ of CAR, bank size, deposit amount and GDP are less than
significance level 0.10 with value of 0.080, 0.000, 0.001 and 0.001 respectively so
they are statistically significant with liquidity measured by but SoNPL and
inflation rate have higher ‘p’ value then significance level with values of 0.131 and
0.288 so they are statistically insignificant with liquidity measured by .
indicates positive relation between CAR and liquidity level measured by and 1%
change in CAR will cause 0.003% proportionate change in liquidity level. The ‘B’
value of SONPL is positive 0.010 indicates a percentage change in SONPL will cause
0.010% proportionate change in liquidity level and has a positive relation with
liquidity. Same way ‘B’ value of bank size and inflation rate have positive value of
0.306 and 0.006 which indicates increase in amount of deposit by Rs. 1 and 1% will
cause increase in liquidity level by Rs. 0.306 and 0.006% respectively. On the other
hand ‘B’ values of amount of deposit and GDP are -0.240 and -0.283 respectively. It
can be said that Rs. 1 change in deposit will cause inverse change in liquidity by Rs.
0.240 and same way Rs 1 increase in amount of GDP will cause decrease in liquidity
level by Rs. 0.283 and vice versa.
This study attempts to analyze the Determinants of liquidity of the commercial banks
in Nepal. More specifically, the study aims to examine the Relationship between of
bank specific and macroeconomic variables on selected commercial bank liquidity in
the case of Nepal of the period of 2009/10 to 2019/20. This study has taken liquid
asset /total asset and liquid asset/(deposit and borrowing) to measure the liquidity of
Nepal by selecting the bank specific variables stated, CAR, share of non-performing
loan, bank size, deposit and macro-economic variables, GDP and inflation. In this
study, the findings from descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, ANOVA test and
linear regression model assumption were presented as follows.
1. The descriptive result showed that the dependent variable, liquid assets
/total assets of sampled Nepalese commercial banks are found ranging
from 7.64 percent to 44.21 percent with an average of 20.87 percent.
Liquid Assets/Deposit+ Borrowing is found ranging from 7.93 percent
to 50.84 percent with an average of 24.80 percent. Hence, this showed
that standard deviation from mean of liquid assets/ deposit+ borrowing
is greater than that of Liquid Assets/Total Assets with 8.67 of versus
7.45 of .
2. Similarly, the independent variables, capital adequacy ratio is found
ranging from -29.46 percent to 27.54 percent with an average of 9.95
with SD of 6.423. The capital adequacy ratio has negative minimum
50
value (-29) due to loss in governments bank i.e. Rastriya Banijya Bank
Ltd. during the study period. Share of nonperforming loan is ranging
from almost 0 to 10.91 leading to mean 1.60 and SD of 1.945.
Similarly bank size is found ranging from 15.79 to 19.40 which have
average of 18.02 with SD of 0.8104. Also the amount of deposit is
found ranging from 15.57 to 19.26 which have average of 17.83 with
SD of 0.8007. Likewise, GDP is found ranging from 4.40 to 5.12
leading to an average of 4.7499 with SD of 0.2206 from mean.
Inflation is found ranging from 4.2 percent to 9.9 percent leading to an
average of 7.62 percent with SD of 2.162 percent from mean.
3. According to liquid assets/total assets as well as (liquid assets/ deposit
+ borrowing) share of non-performing loan and inflation rate has
positive relationship with banks liquidity in Nepal having positive sign
of Pearson correlation having. They have value of 0.295, 0.164, 0.330
and 0.161. This shows that increase in share of non-performing loan,
amount of deposit and inflation rate would lead to increase in liquidity
level and vice versa.
4. Similarly, according to liquid assets/total assets and liquid
assets/deposit+ borrowing capital adequacy ratio, bank size, and GDP
has negative relationship with bank liquidity in Nepal having negative
Pearson correlation containing the value of 0.202 and 0.071, 0.068 and
0.014 and finally 0.350 and 0.187 respectively. This shows that change
in capital adequacy ratio, amount of deposit and GDP will lead to
inverse change in liquidity level and vice versa. In case of bank size
those two models give contradictory results regarding direction of
changes in variable compared to liquidity measured by and .
5. The findings also revealed that the value of R square on liquid assets
/total assets is 0.279 which means that around 27.9 percent variation in
liquid assets/total assets is explained by the regression equation
involving independent variables; CAR, share of non-performing loan,
bank size, deposit, real GDP and inflation. The ANOVA test showed
F- value of 5.662 which is also significant at 10% level.
6. The findings also revealed that the value of R square on liquid assets
(deposit+ borrowing) is 0.269 which means that around 26.9 percent
51
4.4 Discussion
Bank needs capital in order to lend or they risk becoming insolvent. Lending creates
deposit, but not all deposit arise from lending bank need liquidity when deposit is
drawn or they risk running out of money therefore liquidity creation is the function of
commercial banks. Rational decision maker makes optimal level of liquidity so that
firm can generate enough cash requirement to meet firm’s needs and don’t make
money ideal. The aim of this study was to identify degree of effects in determining the
liquidity level of commercial banks in Nepal by selected independent variables and
prefer some recommendation to bank’s management and researcher. This study used
independent variables: capital adequacy ratio, share of non-performing loan, bank
size, deposit, GDP and inflation while the dependent variable is liquidity measured by
assets/total assets ( ) and liquid asset/deposit+ borrowing ( ). Study is carried out
on the selected 9 Nepalese commercial banks over the period of 2009/2010 to
52
2019/2020. The result of this study somehow in line and against the findings of the
literatures that have been reviewed which are discussed below.
Based on model
The result reveals that there is significant influence of CAR, SONPL and real GDP on
liquidity level measures by model. In case of significance and direction of relation,
Those findings, in case of CAR and SONPL, are consistent with the findings of
Vodova, (2010) and Ojha, (2016) in case of SONPL Subedi & Neupane, (2013) also.
But, lower the CAR higher would be the liquid assets by total assets, “financial
fragility-crowding out” theories, this result is inconsistent with these theories but
consistence with risk absorption strategies. The study also reveals that negative beta
coefficient for real GDP. This indicates that higher the real GDP lower would be the
liquid assets by total assets. This finding is consistent with the theory of bank liquidity
and financial fragility but oppose to loan able fund theory. This finding is consistent
in case of significance with finding of Aspachs, (2005) but just oppose resulted in
terms of direction of relation. The result reveals that there is positive and insignificant
influence of deposit amount, bank size and inflation rate on liquidity level. This
finding is inconsistent with the findings of Claire, (2021) and Bist, (2018) in terms of
deposit amount. The relation between bank size and liquidity level, accordance to this
study, accept the concept of “too big to fail” approach and consistent with the findings
of Khanal, (2019) and just oppose to finding of Tseganesh, (2012 and Berger and
Bouwman, (2009).
Based on model
The result reveals that there is significant influence of CAR, bank size deposit amount
and real GDP on liquidity level measures by model. In case of significance and
direction of relation, those findings, in case of CAR and bank size, are consistent with
the findings of Bist, (2018) but in terms of significance, bank size result is
inconsistence with Moussa, (2015). This study result is inconsistence in case of
SONPL, but consistence in terms of GDP and CAR with the result of Ojha, (2016).
But, lower the CAR higher would be the liquid assets by total assets, “financial
fragility-crowding out” theories, this result is inconsistent with this theory but
consistence with risk absorption strategies. This finding is consistent with the findings
53
of Claire, (2021) and Bist, (2018) in terms of deposit amount. Result of this study
rejected the concept of “too big to fail” approach and just in line to the finding of
Rauch, (2008) and Berger and Bouwman, (2009) in terms of relation between bank
size and liquidity level. In terms of relation between bank size and liquidity level,
result accepted the findings of Huybens, (1998) and Smith, (1999). The study also
reveals that negative beta coefficient for real GDP. This indicates that higher the real
GDP lower would be the liquid assets by total assets. This finding is consistent with
the theory of bank liquidity and financial fragility but oppose to loan able fund theory.
This finding is consistent in case of significance with finding of Aspachs, (2005) but
just oppose resulted in terms of direction of relation. The result reveals that there is
positive and insignificant influence of SONPL and inflation rate on liquidity level.
This finding is consistent with the findings of Joshi, (2016).
54
CHAPTER V
SUMMERY AND CONCLUSION
This chapter presents the brief summary of the entire study. In addition, the major
conclusions are discussed based on the findings of the study in separate section of this
chapter which is followed by some recommendations regarding the determinants of
liquidity commercial banks in Nepal. Finally, the chapter ends with the scope of the
future studies in the same field.
5.1 Summary
Banks and financial institutions should have to maintain balanced level of liquidity in
efficient and effective manner and policymakers can affect their effort in constructive
way. The management of bank and financial policy makers then needs to decide how
they can do best to maintain balanced level of liquidity without incurring substantial
losses. Study have proposed that all managements of bank and policy makers should
have to do close evaluation to the relationship between liquidity and its determinants
variable which may be inside of the commercial banks or may be outside of the
commercial banks. So they can find significance and direction of relation that will
certainly helpful for proactive management of liquidity level and invest to the
liquidity in beneficial way. This study have been done for the purpose of assess and
examine the significance and direction of relation with selected bank’s specific and
macro economics variables with liquidity of commercial banks of Nepal. For that
purpose nine commercial banks are taken in consideration of the period of 2008/09 to
2019/20. Liquidity of these banks has been analytically tested here to compare with
bank's other specific and macro-economic factors likes SoNPL, CAR, deposit amount,
bank size, GDP and inflation rate. Data were collected from mainly secondary sources
has been analyzed with the use of different financial, descriptive and statistical tools
namely, average, standard deviation, correlation coefficient, coefficient of variation,
correlation coefficient, ANOVA and regression analysis considering the limitation of
sample size, time frame, sources of data, analyzing tools etc.. More specifically
Statistical package for social science (SPSS) software is used to compute the data and
to get the required information and results. This study is considering the rationality to
proactive management of liquidity in commercial banks of Nepal.
55
The finding of the study shows that, in relation to liquidity measured by ; CAR,
SoNPL and GDP have significant impact on the determining the liquidity in Nepalese
commercial banks, but bank size, deposit and inflation rate has insignificant impact.
CAR, SoNPL, bank size and inflation rate have positive coefficient, but deposit and
GDP have negative coefficient. Similar significant positive result found by Vodova,
(2010) and Ojha, (2016) in case of CAR and SONPL. This studies’ result accepts the
theory of “bank liquidity and financial fragility” but oppose to “loan able fund theory”
in terms of GDP. Result based on bank size accept the concept of “too big to fail”
approach. Same as this study similar positive insignificant result was found by Bista,
(2018) in terms of inflation and bank size but result is against to the sayings of
Huybens, (1998) in case of inflation. The result is line with finding of Bunda &
Desquilbet, (2008) of CAR but oppose in terms of GDP and inflation. Findings
Khanal, (2019) is totally against of the finding of this study. On the other hand, in
determinants of liquidity measured by ; CAR, bank size, deposit amount and GDP
have significant impact on the determinants of liquidity Nepalese commercial banks,
but inflation and SoNPL have insignificant impact. CAR, SoNPL, bank size and
inflation rate have positive coefficient, but deposit and GDP have negative
coefficient. Similar significant positive result found by Vodova, (2010) and Ojha,
(2016), also line with “Risk Absorption” theory in direction of relation in case of
CAR. This studies’ result accepts the theory of bank liquidity and financial fragility
but oppose to loan able fund theory in terms of GDP. The result is line with finding of
Bunda & Desquilbet, (2008) of CAR but oppose in terms of GDP and inflation. Result
based on deposit amount accepts the concept by Claire, (2021). Same as this study,
similar positive relation with liquidity is stated by Iannotta, (2007) and “too big to
fail” theory in term of bank size. The result of study is in line with the finding of
Subedi and Neupane (2013) but just oppose to the finding of Gautam, (2014) in terms
of SoNPL.
5.2 Conclusions
The results of this study suggest that bank specific and macroeconomic variables have
an imperatively significant role on banks liquidity level in Nepal. The major
conclusions are mentioning below:
56
Coefficient of CAR, SoNPL and GDP are significant but bank size, deposit and
inflation rate have insignificant.
Further CAR and SoNPL only have positive impact on liquidity and GDP have
inverse relation.
CAR, bank size, deposit amount and GDP have significant relation in determining
liquidity level. Among of them CAR and bank size have positive relation with
liquidity level but deposit amount and GDP have negative relation.
SoNPL and Inflation rate both have insignificant and positive relation with liquidity
level in the commercial bank of Nepal.
5.3 Implications
The implications of this study will make some contribution to manager of commercial
banks, commercial bank regulator or policy maker and supports for future researchers
in this field. The implication would be different based on priority of management but
the result of this study could be helpful to maintain desirable liquidity level of BFIS.
The study of this paper suggest following recommendations to BFIS’s, Policy makers
and for further researchers.
Based on model
This study reveals that among the selected independent variables CAR, SoNPL and
GDP have the significant relation with liquidity level of commercial banks of Nepal.
So, management of commercial bank has to consider these variables in order to
managing the liquidity level. Among these variables percentage increase in GDP has
negative impact on liquidity level of commercial banks of Nepal. The monetary
policy maker should need to implement suitable policy measures to ease liquidity
during fiscal year with high economic growth. On the same way, commercial banks
ought to invest in productive sectors. On the other hands, SoNPL have positive impact
57
on liquidity level of commercial banks of Nepal. Which means that bank should need
to decrease SoNPL to ease liquidity level, for that purpose banks need to introduce
new consumers oriented scheme of lending and borrowing, this is always desirable for
the sound health of bank also. Further sufficient CAR is desirable but for control
increasing liquidity level banks should keep investment in less risky assets.
Bank size, deposit and inflation rate seems no significant impact on liquidity level of
commercial banks of Nepal. So there is no need to consider Bank size, deposit and
inflation seriously while determining the liquidity level in commercial banks of
Nepal.
Based on model
This study reveals that among of the selected independent variables CAR, bank size,
deposit and GDP have the significant relation with liquidity level of commercial
banks of Nepal. So management of commercial bank have to take consider these
variables while managing the liquidity level. Among of the independent variables
having significant impact, GDP and deposit are found to having negative repressors to
liquidity level of commercial banks of Nepal. So management of commercial bank of
Nepal should have to increase investment in productive sector so GDP would be
increases. On the same way deposit amount should be increases for controlling
increasing liquidity level for that purpose banks need to introduce new consumer
oriented scheme of lending. On the other hand, among of the independent variables
having significant effect, CAR and bank size are positive repressors to the liquidity
level of commercial banks of Nepal. For management of commercial banks of Nepal,
it is essential to decrease in CAR and bank size, in turn increasing in liquidity level
and vice versa. Sufficient CAR is desirable but for control increasing liquidity level
banks should keep investment in less risky assets. Increase in total assets is normal
but for control increasing liquidity level banks should try to decrease in assets.
SoNPL and inflation rate seems to get insignificant relation with liquidity level of
commercial banks of Nepal, so SoNPL and Inflation rate wouldn’t be consider while
determining the liquidity level in commercial banks of Nepal.
REFERENCES
Aspachs, O., Nier, E. & Tiesset, M. ( 2005)., Macroeconomy study both idiosyncratic
and macro- determinants of banks' liquidity buffers in UK banks case study of
fifteen quoted companies. International journal of management, 2(4), 23-41.
Berger, N. & Bouwman, C. (2009). Bank liquidity creation. Society for financial
journal, 2(1), 26-28.
Bunda, I. & Desquilbet, J. (2008). The bank liquidity smile across exchange rate
regimes. International economic journal, 22( 3), 361-386.
Diamond, W., Raghuram G. & Rajan J. (2008). Liquidity risk, liquidity creation, and
financial fragility. International journal of empirical finance, 42( 8), 31-36.
Everest Bank Ltd. (2021, august). Annual reports of Everest Bank retrieved from
https://www.everestbank.com/financialreports/annual-report/.
Huybens, E. & Smith, B. (1999). Inflation, financial markets and long-run real
activity. Journal of monetary economics, 43(12), 283-315.
Miller, M. & Orr, D. (1966). A model of demand for money by firms. The quarterly
journal of economics, 80(3), 413-435.
Mishkin, S. F. & Eakins, G. S. (2011). Financial market and institutions. New Jersey:
Prentice Hall.
NABIL Bank. (2021, august). Annual report of NABIL Bank retrieved from
http://nabil.com/reports/annual-reports.html.
NIBL Bank (2021, august). Annual reports of NIBL Bank retrieved from
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NIC Asia Bank (2021, august). Annual reports of NIC Asia Bank retrieved from
https://nicasiabank.com/financialreports/annual-report/.
NMB Bank (2021, august). Annual reports of NMB Bank retrieved from
http://nmbbanknepal.com/notice-and-media/financial-highlights/annual-report
Pandey, I. M. (2005). Financial management. (9th ed.). India; Vikas Irish Publication.
Praet, P. & Herzberg, V. (2008). Market liquidity and banking liquidity: linkages,
vulnerabilities and the role of disclosure, publication of bank of France, 11(8),
120-125.
PRIME Bank (2021, august). Annual reports of PRIME Bank retrieved from
https://primebank.com/financialreports/annual-report/.
Sanima Bank (2021, august). Annual reports of Sanima Bank retrieved from
https://www.sanimabank.com/reports/annual-report.
Siddhartha Bank (2021, august). Annual reports of Siddhartha Bank retrieved from
https://siddharthabank.com/financialreports/annual-report/.
Subedi, S. & Neupane, B. (2013). Determinants of banks' liquidity and their impact
on financial performance in Nepalese commercial banks, (master’s thesis)
Pokhara University, Pokhara, Nepal.
Yeager, F. & Seitz, N. (1989). Financial institution management: text and cases(3rd
ed.). Englewood Cliffs, N.J: Prentice Hall Publication.
58
The study reveals the relationship between liquidity level and limited independent
variables. Future researchers can be carried out the research using other specific and
macro economical variables. This study is limited to the analysis of secondary data.
Future researcher can be done using primary data with more samples which may
result different result. This study covered only commercial banks in Nepal. It didn’t
consider other financial institutions and other sector to provide broad based analysis.
Future researchers can conduct relation between liquidity and factors affects to the
liquidity of other financial institution of Nepal except commercial banks.
A Thesis Proposal Submitted to the Office of the Dean, Faculty of Management in partial
fulfillment of the requirements for the Master’s Degree
By
Bijaya Upadhaya Poudel
Roll No.: 664/16
Registration No. 7-2-318-10-2012
Central Department of Management
November, 2021
1
CHAPTER I
Introduction
“Liquid asset means the cash balance of a bank or financial institution, the balance remained
in the current account, the balance maintained in Rastra Bank and such assets of a bank or
financial institution specified as liquid assets by the Rastra Bank from time to time.” (Bank
and Financial Institution Act, 2017).
Liquidity for a bank means the ability to meet its financial obligations as they come due.
Bank lending finances investments in relatively illiquid assets, but it funds its loans with
mostly short term liabilities. Thus one of the main challenges to a bank is ensuring its own
liquidity under all reasonable conditions. A bank's liquidity is determined by its ability to
meet all its anticipated expenses, such as funding loans or making payments on debt, using
only liquid assets. The attention has been paid by lender to the last resort to overcome the
liquidity crisis (Aspachs, et. Al. Nier, Tiesset, 2005).
Bank for International Settlements defines liquidity as the ability of bank to fund increases in
assets and meet obligations as they come due, without incurring unacceptable losses. The
management of any firm should be able to identify its strength and weakness, likewise exploit
opportunities and tackle threats as it is determined to make profits.
Liquidity can be defined as the ability of a financial institution to meet all legitimate demands
for funds. A bank needs to hold liquid assets to meet the cash requirements of its customers if
2
the institution does not have the resources to satisfy its customers' demand, then it either has
to borrow on the inter-bank market or the central bank. If bank unable to meet its customers'
demands leaves itself exposed to a run and more importantly, a systemic lack of confidence
in the banking system (Yeager and Seitz, 1989).
As other organization higher profitability is ultimate aim of commercial banks. One factor
that affect profitability is qualitative management of liquidity. In the same way there are
various factors that affect level of liquidity. Based on the review of above discussion and
given definitions, liquidity is the ability of a financial institution to meet all legitimate
demands for funds which is the specific topic of study. It plays a pivotal role in the successful
operation in any business. In case of bank, it means stored in thebalance sheet and in terms of
liquidity available through purchased funds, ability of a bank to pay cash to depositors on
demand, amount of money that can drawn in urgent need. While managing level of liquidity
organization have to bear risks namely funding and market liquidity risk. Organizations have
to manage liquidity level tactfully for achieving the goal.
One of the major investment of commercial banks is liquidity. On every investment there
should be considerable return to investors, so as to the commercial banks' liquidity
investment. Investment in liquidity cheap or expensive depends upon the carefulness of
liquidity management. Liquidity investment is always essential and equally risky as well. If
they know about the exact factors that influencing the liquidity level, they will invest in
liquidity confidently. It is unpredictable to specify what factors determine the liquidity level.
There should be consider the external and internal factors before determining the level of
investment in liquidity (pandey, 2000).
3
Banks and financial institutions should have to maintain balanced level of liquidity in
efficient and effective manner and policymakers can affect their effort in constructive way.
The management of bank and financial policy makers then needs to decide how they can do
best to maintain balanced level of liquidity in their respective area. I propose that all
managements of bank and policy makers should have to do close evaluation to the
relationship between liquidity and its independent variable which may be inside the
commercial banks or may be outside of the commercial banks. So they can find significance
and direction of relation that will certainly helpful for proactive management of liquidity
level and invest to the liquidity in beneficial way.
This study aims to analyze determinants of liquidity of commercial banks and their
relationship with the liquidity based on information available in Nepalese context. The
objectives of this study will examine the impact of the determinants of the liquidity of
Nepalese commercial bank. The specific objectives of the study are listed as below:
4
The study deals with determinants of level of liquidity in commercial banks of Nepal. The
study also significance lies mainly in identifying and comparing the determinants factors of
liquidity. Banks can use recommendation of this study for proactive management. It will
provide the real picture of ongoing condition which is beneficial to potential as well as
existing shareholders, about identifying risk return and make decisions of utilizing funds. The
study will also useful for depositors, merchant bankers as well as other stakeholders; they can
identify the overall performance and ongoing liquidity risk of the banks. It will be helpful to
those who want to conduct further study in this field. Mainly, the purposed study will be
significance for the researchers, research group and academicians for the future in the view of
review.
The whole study will divide into five chapters and the chapters are organized systematically
as follows for the effective study.
Chapter I: This chapter will consist of major issues to investigate along with the objective,
significance, focus and limitation of the study.
Chapter II: This chapter will be related to theoretical analysis a brief review of related
literature. It tries to show overall scenario of determinants of liquidity level, its determinants
and their effect in financial performance, especially analysis of commercial banks of Nepal.
Chapter III: This section will describe the methodology employed in the study. This chapter
deals with the nature and sources of data selection for study areas, method of analysis etc
Chapter IV: This chapter will deal with the presentation and analysis of data and major
findings by using proper tools and techniques.