Chapter Two
Chapter Two
Chapter Two
INTRODUCTION
This chapter deals with different points about risk management which starts from defining risk and risk
management and followed by some general points about it, the importance of risk management, bank risk
management, types of risks in the banking business, measuring and managing risk, risk management
guideline for Somalia banks. Finally, reviews of other studies conducted in different countries on issues
regarding risk management in the banking industry were presented.
2.1 Theoretical literature review
A theory is a contemplative and rational type of abstract or generalizing thinking or the results of such
thinking. It is a coherent group of tested general propositions, commonly regarded as correct, that can be
used as principles of explanation and prediction for a class of phenomena (Kombo & Tromp, 2009). A
theoretical framework is a collection of interrelated concepts, like a theory but not necessarily so well
worked out. According to Trochim (2006), a theoretical framework guides research, determining what
variables to measure, and what statistical relationships to look for in the context of the problems under
study. Theoretical frameworks are critical in deductive, theory-testing sorts of studies. Scientists when
performing research studies to formulate a theory use a theoretical framework. The theoretical framework
is a foundation for the parameters, or boundaries, of a study.
Definition of risk
The definition given for risk by many authors is more or less the same, in which many authors add their
wordings to the same thing. Some of them define risk as risk is the probability and magnitude of a loss,
disaster, or other undesirable events, (Hubbard, 2009). The risk is an uncertain potential event and
condition that raises the chance of losses/gains which could influence the success of financial institutions,
(Khalid & Amjad, 2012). Likewise, the risk is the uncertainty surrounding future events and outcomes or
it is the expression of the likelihood and impact of an event with the potential to influence the
organization’s objective achievement (Berg, 2010). On the other hand, Rejda & McNamara,
(2017)defined; risk as uncertainty concerning the occurrence of a loss. According to this definition, a risk
exists only if an uncertain action or event happens that leads to the occurrence of that risk.
Risk Management Theory
Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated and
economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of
unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities (Wenk, 2005). Risk management is a
constant process of evolution. In general, risks include credit risk, market risk (include liquidity risk,
interest rate risk, and exchange rate risk), and operational risk. If banks ignore the risks, they could not
have a normal operation. Therefore, every organization should learn to apply effective methods and make
these methods positively identify, analyze, evaluate, treatment and control business risks (Aliu, M.,
Sahiti, A., 2019).
The study anchored its variables on three theories namely: (i) Finance distress theory which is linked with
the credit and liquidity risks, (ii) Shiftability Theory is linked with liquidity risks, and (iii) Extreme value
theory that is linked with market risks.
Finance distress theory
Baldwin & Mason, (1983) purported that when a firm’s business deteriorates to the purpose where it
cannot meet its liability, the firm is claimed to possess entered a state of financial distress. The primary
signals of financial distress are violations of debt payments and failure or reduction of dividends pay-outs.
Whitaker, (1999) defines an entry in financial distress because the first year during which cash flows is
less than current maturities’ long-term debt. The firm has enough to pay its creditors as long because the
cash flows exceed the present debt obligations. The key considers identifying firms in financial distress is
their inability to fulfill contractual debt obligations. However, substantial financial distress effects are
incurred well before default. Wruck, (1990) stated that firms enter into financial distress as a result of
economic distress, declines in their performance, and poor management, especially on risks. Boritz,
(1997) depicts a process of financial distress that begins with a period characterized by a collection of bad
economic conditions and poor management which commits costly mistakes. Other creditors also have to
be compelled to be taken into consideration when firms are setting up place risk management measures.
Credit risks in banks also have to be compelled to be 12 addressed since it's going to cause financial
distress. Loan portfolio management is a vital determinant of the firm’s liquidity. The banks should
manage the credit and liquidity risk to avoid financial distress.
The theory of financial distress emanates from the liquidity and credit risk facing a firm. This theory
provides for a non-biased perspective on the link between credit risk and financial performance variables
employed by the study. By providing information that the results of financial distress occur before default
risk, the theory offers a neutral platform to undertake an incisive empirical analysis of this relationship
within the commercial banks.
Shiftability theory of liquidity
Formally developed by Harold G, Moulton in 1915, the shiftability theory held that banks could most
effectively protect themselves against massive deposit withdrawals by holding, as a type of liquidity
reserve, credit instruments that there existed a ready secondary market. the theory relies on the proportion
that the bank's liquidity is maintained if it holds assets that would be shifted or sold to other lenders or
investors for cash. Also, these assets can be shifted to the central bank for cash without material loss just
in case necessarily than hopping on maturities to resolve their liquidity problems (Ngwu, 2006).
This theory posits that a bank’s liquidity is maintained if it holds assets that would be shifted or sold to
other lenders or investors for cash. Now of view contends that a bank’s liquidity might be enhanced if it
always has assets to sell and provided the central bank and also the discount market stands able to
purchase the asset offered for a discount. Thus, this theory recognizes and contends that shiftability,
marketability, or transferability of a bank's assets could be a basis for ensuring liquidity. This theory
further contends that the highly marketable security held by a bank is a superb source of liquidity. Dodds,
(1982) contends that to confirm convertibility immediately and appreciable loss, such assets must meet
three requisites. liquidity management theory consists of the activities involved in obtaining funds from
depositors and other creditors and determining the appropriate mix of funds for a particularly bank.
Liquidity theory has been subjected to critical review by various authors.
The consensus is that during the period of distress, a bank may find it difficult to obtain the desired
liquidity since the confidence of the market may have seriously affected and credit worthiness would
invariably be lacking. However, for a healthy bank, the liabilities constitute an important source of
liquidity. The liquidity shiftability theory provides for an explicit understanding of how the liquidity risk
affects the financial performance using liquidity coverage and net stable funding ratios as stated by the
new Basel III framework. The analysis of this study provides information as to whether liquidity
maintained by the commercial banks affects the returns to the shareholders.
Kinyanjui (2014) argued that the problem of loan recovery in Somalia has been of major factor that
hinders the growth of many financial institutions in our country. Banks in Somalia have not been
seeming to be successful in their lending functions and this is because of cries from the public on the
small percentage of population with access to banks credits. Also, huge amounts of bad debts (Non-
performing loans) declared by banks each year shows their failure in lending functions. A debit is
incurred from a loan, a credit line, or an accounts receivable that is recovered either in whole or in part
after it had been written off or classified by the lender as a bad debt. This recovery can often actually
produce income because it will typically generate loss when it is written off by the lender. For the bank
industry to grow, banks need to have an average drain in deposits less than the new funds deposits.
Demand deposits are core deposits providing a relative long-term source of funds for financial
institution (Saunders, 1994). When demand deposit decreases, the bank ‘s liquidity is affected and
situation may cause net deposit drain. The decrease in bank ‘s deposit reduces the supply of loan able
funds and this may force banks to seek growth by engaging other financial services/products. When the
demand for funds (deposits) is high the interest rates on deposits increases while the interest rates for
loans decreases and thus the banks profit decreases.
The increase in interest earnings assets implies the increase in cost to the banks which as a result will be
compelled to adjust their lending rates (Haron, 2007). The loans thus become an attractive and reduce
the ability of banks to make profit out of loans. When the interest rates on deposit is low, large
depositors will utilize their excess funds by buying the treasury bills, commercial paper, and other
market instruments where as individuals will shift their surplus funds from demand deposit to interest
bearing accounts such as savings and loan association. This is referred to as Disinter mediation (Ndenda,
1999).
Lending is the principal business activity for commercial and development banks. The loan portfolio is
typically the largest asset and the major source of revenue. In the other hand the loan portfolio is one of
the greatest sources of risk to the bank ‘s safety and soundness (comptroller, 1998). Whether due to lax
credit standards, poor credit risk management, or weakness in the economy, loan portfolio problems
have historically been the major cause of bank losses and failures. However, the performance of the
banks has to be viewed both in terms of profitability and stability. Profitability ratios show a bank's
overall efficiency and performance. Profitability ratios can be divided into two types: margins and
returns. Ratios that show margins represent the bank's ability to translate sales dollars into profits at
various stages of measurement. Ratios that show returns represent the bank's ability to measure the
overall efficiency of the bank in generating returns for its shareholders (Diamond, 2000).
The commercial bank's asset is another indicator that affects the performance of a commercial bank.
The commercial bank asset includes current asset, credit portfolio, fixed asset, and other investments.
Often a growing asset (size) related to the age of the bank (Athanasoglou et al., 2005). More often than
not the loan of a bank is the major asset that generates the major share of the commercial bank ‘s
income. Loan is the major asset of commercial banks from which they generate income. The quality of
loan portfolio determines the profitability of banks and hence bank performance. The loan portfolio
quality has a direct bearing on performance of a commercial bank.
This section summarized the existing literature on risk management and bank financial performance.
Financial performance is influenced by a combination of factors facing the firm; a review of the
literature provides evidence as to why firms should concern themselves with risk management. The
studies revealed that the awareness and willingness of companies in managing their risks have increased
in the emerging economies due to the impact of events such as the European financial crisis. That is, the
demand for risk management is increasing, especially in the past few years.
Most studies on the relationship between risk management practice and financial performance of banks
mostly have been conceptual, often drawing the theoretical link between good risk management
practices and improved bank performance. It is evident from the above review of the relevant literature
that research in the area of bank risk has been carried out, but not in a comprehensive approach. Most
of the reviewed literature indicated that previous researchers concentrated only on credit risks,
liquidity, operational risk, leaving out market risk elements.
Generally, the current study has a broader scope, covering additional important interest rate risk and
foreign exchange risk variables in the market and this makes this study more comprehensive. A survey of
the relevant literature found that there are few studies specific to Somalia on the link between risk
management and the financial performance of the commercial bank. The aim of this study was,
therefore, to fill these relevant gaps in the literature by studying the effect of risk management on
financial performance by incorporating different components of risk such as credit risk, liquidity risk,
operational risk, and market risk i.e. interest rate risk and foreign exchange rate risk.