Centrum Suryoday Small Finance Bank Q3FY23 Result Update
Centrum Suryoday Small Finance Bank Q3FY23 Result Update
Centrum Suryoday Small Finance Bank Q3FY23 Result Update
Institutional Research
India I BFSI
10 February, 2023
and portfolio quality (curated customer base) has shaped up well. Resultantly, expect Changes in the report
Suryoday to post RoAA (2.1%) and RoAE (13.9%) by FY25. On FY25 ABV, we maintain Rating: BUY; Unchanged
multiple/TP at 1.0x/Rs173. Retain BUY with a potential upside 62%. Target price: Rs173; Unchanged
Q3FY23 – Opex disappoints; asset quality improves QoQ FY24E: ; Unchanged
EPS:
FY25E: ; Unchanged
NII came in at Rs1.84bn (est. Rs1.80bn) led by a decent loan growth at 19.6% YoY (normalised) Source: Centrum Broking
to Rs54.1bn. Disbursals were healthy at Rs12.7bn in line with management guidance of Rs4bn
pm ‐ led by MFI and housing segment. Secured mix was a higher at 38.9% (last quarter 35.6%) Shareholding pattern
owing to sale of IF loan book to ARC. Deposits also saw a healthy growth at 48% YoY as bulk Dec‐22 Sep‐22 Jun‐22 Mar‐22
deposits book nearly tripled YoY to Rs10.4bn while CASA declined from 19% to 14% Promoter 23.3 28.0 28.0 28.0
sequentially. Other income was ahead at Rs257mn (est. Rs230mn) led by better fee income FIIs 2.6 3.9 4.8 4.8
driven by higher business volumes. Opex was a miss at Rs1.24bn (est. Rs1.15bn) led by higher DIIs 13.7 14.0 14.2 15.4
staff cost and other opex. PPoP was a marginally below estimates at Rs848mn (est. Rs884mn) Public/other 60.4 54.0 53.0 51.8
led by more opex. Provisions were lower at Rs612mn (including ARC sale cost, est. Rs670mn). Source: BSE
Asset quality was better with GNPA and NNPA stood at 4.23% and 2.74% respectively as on
9MFY23 which are not comparable due to sale of assets to ARC during the 3QFY23.
Material improvement in asset quality; overall net stress reduces
One EMI adjusted Collection efficiency (CE) further improved from ~90% in 2QFY23 to 96% in
Dec’22 leading to a PAR‐90+ reduction from 7.94% as at Sep’22 to 3.36% as at Dec’22. CE for
for post June 21 book has also held up very well at 98%. As on Dec’22 the restructured pool
stands at Rs1.83bn of which Rs0.97bn overlaps with GNPA. Coverage on the GNPA pool
(Rs1.63bn, net of ECLGS) was at 51%.
Outlook – One more quarter of pain on numbers front;
As per the management, around Rs60cr of maximum provisioning would be needed (4QFY23).
The primary focus on immediate basis of Suryoday is to improve portfolio quality, collections
and rebuild business volumes. Primarily owing to curated customer focus, centralized
decision making process etc. We believe the effect of Covid on the bank’s financials is waning.
Further, many initiatives of the Bank to create a stable, sustainable and scalable bank have
started yielding results and the performance of FY24 is expected to be far better than FY23.
Valuation doesn’t factor in normalized profit going ahead; BUY with a TP of Rs173
Long term strategy to accelerate business growth and profitability, diversify asset book and
build a stable granular liability base with technology being a key enabler. In this backdrop, a
secured asset book will contribute to 50% of the portfolio by FY25. We believe with
improvement in CE (aided by overall improvement in MFI space and change in quality of book)
will lead to better stock performance going ahead. On FY25 ABV, we maintain multiple/TP
at 1.0x/Rs173. Retain BUY. Risks: lower collection efficiency.
Financial and valuation summary
YE Mar (Rs mn) 3QFY23A 3QFY22A YoY (%) 2QFY23A QoQ (%) FY23E FY24E FY25E
NII 1,835 1,673 9.7 1,759 4.3 7,284 8,578 10,967
PPoP 848 805 5.3 931 (8.9) 3,602 4,124 5,038
Provisions 612 726 (15.7) 761 (19.6) 2,795 1,785 1,562
Net profit 181 47 285.7 130 39.0 609 1,750 2,601
Loan growth (%) 15.3 22.2 (30.9) 21.1 (27.5) 18.5 27.4 22.5
NIM (%) 9.6 10.4 (7.7) 9.6 0.0 9.7 10.1 10.0
BFSI
Cost/income (%) 59.5 56.6 5.0 53.6 10.9 55.7 57.1 58.8
GNPA (%) 4.2 10.5 (59.6) 9.9 (57.3) 4.1 4.6 4.9 Shailesh Kanani
RoA (%) 0.9 0.3 222.8 0.7 33.5 0.7 1.9 2.1 Research Analyst, BFSI
RoE (%) 4.7 1.4 241.6 3.4 38.0 4.0 10.6 13.9 +91‐22 4215 9001
P/ABV (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 [email protected]
Source: Company, Centrum Broking
Please see Disclaimer for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures.
Suryoday Small Finance Bank 10 February, 2023
Thesis Snapshot
Estimate revision Valuations
FY23E FY23E FY24E FY24E Suryoday has assigned/recruited dedicated team to improve the collection
YE Mar (Rs mn) % chg % chg
New Old New Old efficiency which has started yielding results (CE improving from 90% to 96%).
NII 7,284 7,284 ‐ 8,578 8,578 ‐ In our estimates over FY22‐25, we pencil in a 23.3% CAGR jump over NII (led
PPoP 3.602 3,602 ‐ 4,124 4,124 ‐ by focus on minting curated customer base via products like Vikas loan aiding
PAT 609 609 ‐ 1,750 1,750 ‐ AUM growth), moderation in CTI ratio to 58.8% in FY25 (peaked in FY21 at
Loan growth (%) 14.0 14.0 ‐ 28.1 28.1 ‐ 67.5%) and lower credit cost. We initiate Buy on the stock with a Target price
of Rs173/‐ based on 1xABV on FY25E
GNPA (%) 4.1 4.1 ‐ 4.6 4.6 ‐
Source: Centrum Broking
P/ABV mean and standard deviation
Suryoday SFB versus NIFTY Midcap 100 2.5
1m 6m 1 year 2.0
SURYODAY IN (9.3) 14.5 (22.2)
NIFTY Midcap 100 (1.9) 2.1 2.0 1.5
Source: Bloomberg, NSE 1.0
0.5
0.0
Mar‐21
Mar‐22
May‐22
Oct‐21
Jan‐22
Oct‐22
Jan‐23
Dec‐21
Nov‐22
Jul‐21
Jul‐22
Apr‐21
Apr‐22
Jun‐21
Aug‐21
Aug‐22
Sep‐21
Feb‐22
Sep‐22
Feb‐23
P/ABV Mean
Mean + Std Dev Mean ‐ Std Dev
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking
Key Financials
CAGR (FY22‐25E) P/E (x) P/BV (x)
Company CMP (Rs) Rating TP (Rs) Mcap (Rs mn) AUM NII Opex PPoP FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
Suryoday 107 BUY 173 11,430 21.5% 23.3% 20.3% 23.9% nm 19.0 6.6 4.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6
Concall Highlights
Business Performance
Gross advances stood at ~Rs54bn, not comparable not comparable due to sale of assets
to ARC during the 3QFY23.
Good credit demand in IF, affordable housing and MSE segment. CV demand picking up
gradually.
Disbursement in 3QFY23 was Rs12.7bn, up ~13% YoY and QoQ.
Diversifying asset book towards non‐micro banking business which now contributes to
~39% of loan book.
Total deposits stood at Rs46.9bn up by 48% YoY with total retail at 78% in 3QFY23 vs
72% in 2QFY23.
CASA deposits grew by 9% YoY to ~Rs6.6bn. CA and SA contribute 9.3% and 90.7%
respectively.
Acquired 1,00,000 new customers in 3QFY23, 4.8% QoQ jump.
COF declined by 2/50bps YoY and QoQ to 6.7% in 3QFY22.
Exhibit 1: Advances trend Exhibit 2: Disbursement trend
Gross Advances (Rs mn) Disbursement (Rs mn)
55000 15000
54000
53000
10000
52000
Q2FY23, Q3FY23, Q3FY23,
51000 Q2FY23,
53,784 54,082 Q4FY22, Q1FY23, 12,651
5000 11,182
50000 Q1FY23, 9,801 10,122
Q4FY22,
49000 51,322
50,632
48000 0
Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23 * Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data, *Gross advances at Rs54Bn, not comparable Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data
due to sale of assets to ARC during the 3QFY23
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data
Exhibit 4: Portfolio Mix – Product Wise Exhibit 5: Regional Portfolio Mix (Overall)
Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data Source: Centrum Broking, Company Data
Asset Quality
Collections including arrears sustaining around 96% (one EMI adjusted) during 3QFY23.
Further, post June 21 advances (84%) are having a collection efficiency of 98%. Overall
PAR of post June 21 book is 4.4% with 90+ at mere 0.6%.
As of 3QFY23, the restructured book stands at Rs1.8bn and has collection efficiency of
65% (one EMI adjusted).
GNPA and NNPA stood at 4.23% and 2.74% respectively as on 9MFY23 which are not
comparable due to sale of assets to ARC during the 3QFY23.
Total provision on book stands at ~Rs83cr. In 3QFY23, ~Rs1.8bn of provisions and
Rs0.9bn of floating provision was utilized towards ARC transaction. Further, ~22cr loss
was booked in PnL for the same during 3QFY23.
PCR stood at 36.2% (excluding technical write off).
Tier 1 stood at 33.5% with CRAR at 36.4% while overall liquidity at Rs31bn as on
3QFY23.
Other
Increase in cost to income mainly due to increase in expenses towards improving
collection efforts.
Focusing on graduating existing customers to Vikas loan products. Expect Vikas Loan
Book of ₹1,200 crores (₹ 828 crores in Dec‐22 with PAR of 0.8%).
Target NNPA of 2% by March‐23 on the back of robust collections.
To achieve monthly PPOP of ₹ 40 crores by March‐23.
Use of multiple apps such as Sarathi and Jyoti app to reduce TaT and improve efficiency
across asset and liability products. Leverage on robust analytics that enables bank to
achieve the next leg of growth.
Outlook
Primary focus on immediate basis is to improve portfolio quality, collections and rebuild
business volumes.
Post June 21 book Collections are healthy and are overall performance expected to
improve hereon
Long term strategy to accelerate business growth and profitability, diversify asset book
and build a stable granular liability base with technology being a key enabler. In this
backdrop, a secured asset book will contribute to 50% of the portfolio.
We believe the effect of Covid on the bank’s financials is waning. Further, many
initiatives of the Bank to create a stable, sustainable and scalable bank have started
yielding results and the performance of FY24 is expected to be far better than FY23.
We maintain BUY with a Target Price of Rs173.
Ratios Ratios
YE Mar FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E YE Mar (Rs mn) FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
Growth (%) Balance Sheet (%)
Loans 12.8 19.3 18.5 27.4 22.5 Loans / Deposits 122.3 123.4 120.0 115.0 105.0
Deposits 14.3 18.2 21.9 32.9 34.2 Investments / Deposits 57.6 53.4 22.4 27.8 32.9
RWA growth 0.0 29.3 27.0 22.0 23.0 CASA 15.4 18.8 20.9 20.9 21.0
NII (16.3) 42.4 24.6 17.8 27.9 Assets/equity (x) 4.2 5.4 5.2 6.1 6.9
Other income 0.0 22.5 (10.4) 22.8 22.3 RWA / Total assets 50.4 53.4 68.0 63.3 60.7
Opex 20.8 25.7 9.4 21.3 31.1 Capital ratios (%)
PPoP (27.5) 67.4 36.0 14.5 22.2 Tier‐1 46.7 34.1 27.9 25.5 23.8
Provisions (24.9) 144.5 (21.9) (36.1) (12.5) Tier‐2 4.1 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.3
Net profit (49.5) nm nm 187.4 48.6 CRAR 50.9 36.3 29.7 27.0 25.2
Profitability (%) Asset quality ratios (%)
Yield on assets 18.1 19.8 21.1 20.3 19.0 GNPA (Rs mn) 3,937 5,974 2,334 3,387 4,415
Cost of funds 8.0 7.0 7.1 8.3 8.3 NNPA (Rs mn) 1,881 2,834 1,042 1,350 1,617
NIM 7.2 8.4 9.7 10.1 10.0 GNPA 9.4 11.8 4.1 4.6 4.9
Other income / Total inc. 15.7 13.8 10.3 10.7 10.3 NNPA 4.7 5.9 1.8 1.9 1.8
Other inc. / avg assets 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 PCR 52.2 52.6 55.4 60.1 63.4
Cost/Income 67.5 60.9 55.7 57.1 58.8 Slippage 9.5 10.6 5.0 2.8 2.0
Employee 38.2 33.7 28.0 29.3 31.8 NNPA / Equity 11.8 18.8 6.7 7.8 8.1
Other 29.3 27.3 27.6 27.8 26.9 Per share
Opex/ Avg assets 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.8 5.9 EPS 1.1 (8.8) 5.7 16.5 24.5
Provisioning cost 3.9 8.2 5.4 2.8 2.0 DPS 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2
Tax rate 0.0 0.0 24.6 25.2 25.2 BVPS 150.5 141.8 147.5 164.0 188.5
RoE 0.9 (6.0) 4.0 10.6 13.9 ABVPS 132.7 115.1 137.7 151.3 173.3
RoA 0.2 (1.2) 0.7 1.9 2.1 Valuation (x)
RoRWA 0.7 (2.4) 1.2 2.8 3.4 P/E 94.9 nm 18.5 6.4 4.3
Du‐pont (%) P/BV 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
Interest income 12.8 12.6 14.4 15.6 15.6 P/ABV 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6
Interest expenses 6.1 4.8 5.5 6.5 6.6 Source: Company, Centrum Broking
NII 6.8 7.8 8.9 9.1 9.0
Other income 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.0
Total income 8.1 9.1 9.9 10.2 10.0
Operating expenses 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.8 5.9
Employee 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.2
Other 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.7
PPOP 2.6 3.6 4.4 4.4 4.1
Provisions 2.4 4.8 3.4 1.9 1.3
PBT 0.2 (1.3) 1.0 2.5 2.8
Tax 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7
RoA 0.2 (1.2) 0.7 1.9 2.1
Source: Company, Centrum Broking
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Suryoday Small Finance Bank
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
Jul- 22
Au g-22
Oct -22
Mar -22
Jun-22
Dec-22
May -22
Ap r-22
Jan- 23
Nov- 22
Feb- 22
Sep- 22
Feb- 23
Source: Bloomberg
1 Business activities of Centrum Broking Centrum Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “CBL”) is a registered member of NSE (Cash, F&O and Currency Derivatives
Limited (CBL) Segments), MCX‐SX (Currency Derivatives Segment) and BSE (Cash segment), Depository Participant of CDSL and a SEBI registered
Portfolio Manager.
2 Details of Disciplinary History of CBL CBL has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority from accessing /dealing in securities market.
3 Registration status of CBL: CBL is registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001469)
Suryoday Small Finance
Bank
4 Whether Research analyst’s or relatives’ have any financial interest in the subject company and nature of such financial interest No
5 Whether Research analyst or relatives have actual / beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company at the end of the month
No
immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.
6 Whether the research analyst or his relatives has any other material conflict of interest No
7 Whether research analyst has received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months and nature of products / services for which
No
such compensation is received
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No
research report
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Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company
12 No
in the past twelve months;
Whether it or its associates have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage
13 No
services from the subject company in the past twelve months;
PORTFOLIO MANAGER
Research Analyst
SEBI Registration No. INH000001469
Website: www.centrumbroking.com
Investor Grievance Email ID: [email protected]