PL GEP Research Cpo Compass 2024 Marketplace

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CPO

COMPASS
2024

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH

WWW.PROCUREMENTLEADERS.COM
ANNUAL STUDY / CPO COMPASS 2024
CONTENTS

Introduction 1

What we learned 3

Section one: The new digital frontier 4

Section two: The global trade race 14

Section three: The climate countdown 25

About the research 37

About Procurement Leaders 39


ANNUAL STUDY / CPO COMPASS 2024
INTRODUCTION

STANDING BACK TO CONSIDER A COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN FUTURE

While procurement teams have been forced to threaten to deprive some workers of their jobs –
deal with successive day-to-day crises over the but also have the potential to accelerate reshoring.
past few years, the future they are faced with looks Transitioning to renewables will help the west
increasingly uncertain. wean itself off Russian-controlled gas supplies –
Powerful new technologies promise to transform but leave it reliant on Chinese-made solar panels
not just the procurement itself and the supply and wind turbines.
chain, but the economy as a whole. Geopolitical Preparing for this complex future is an ongoing
tensions loom on the horizon and frightening bouts process and nobody has all the answers. But
of extreme weather threaten communities and with the help of insights from leading subject-
infrastructure around the world. matter experts, as well as a survey of leading
While maintaining a grip on their functions’ procurement executives, the CPO Compass 2024
present priorities, leaders also need to take the provides a starting point from which to think about
time to consider the bigger picture and adjust their the challenges that lie ahead.
course as necessary.
With that in mind, the CPO Compass 2024
looks ahead to the challenges and opportunities
procurement could encounter not just next year, but
over the next five years and beyond.
We have split these challenges into three
thematic areas – the new digital frontier, the global
trade race and the climate countdown – but the
reality is they are inextricably linked.
The threat of Taiwan’s semiconductors being
cut off from the global economy risks depriving Note: Images throughout this report, including the
AI pioneers of the computing power they need cover, have been created using the Generative AI
to continue development. Advances in robotics tool Midjourney

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INTRODUCTION

HOW TO THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE, WITH RAFAEL RAMIREZ

be some of the most significant scenarios they may


face in the coming five years and beyond.
To explore how CPOs can use future scenarios
to inform their strategy today, Procurement Leaders It’s about bringing future
spoke with Rafael Ramirez, professor of practice perspectives to the present
at Oxford University’s Saïd Business School and
director of the Oxford Scenarios Programme. to help surface and
A common misconception about scenario planning,
Ramirez says, is that it is a form of forecasting.
question assumptions
“It’s not about forecasting and predicting,” he
says. “It’s about bringing future perspectives to the focusing on what you’re planning to do, to focusing
present to help surface assumptions and question on what assumptions you are making about the
assumptions and find out what would happen if future that underpin that plan.
those assumptions don’t play out as expected in Considering these assumptions can then allow
the official future.” leaders to test the viability of their strategies should
Rafael Ramirez, professor of practice, Saïd Business So rather than focusing on determining what you such assumptions not come to pass – and then to
School, the University of Oxford; director of the think is probably going to happen, focus on what consider whether they need to be better prepared
Oxford Scenarios Programme could happen. to respond to the risks or opportunities that
Another key thing to understand about scenario would present.
planning is that you’re probably already doing it – More than anything else, it’s important to ensure
Nobody can foresee the future – even Procurement even if you don’t call it that. the scenarios CPOs are considering are relevant to
Leaders. So it is important to understand that the “When you have a procurement plan, you’re their organisation and specific use cases.
CPO Compass does not exist to tell procurement implicitly making a bunch of assumptions about “We start with the user and use. And you tailor-
executives what will happen. what context that plan will inhabit,” says Ramirez. make a set of scenarios for that user and use,”
Instead, we aim to provide procurement teams So don’t think of it as something new – it’s Ramirez says. “If you don’t have a user and a use,
with a range of perspectives on what we think could more about having a “reversal of perspective” from it’s going to be useless.”

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INTRODUCTION

WHAT WE LEARNED: THE VERY BEST QUOTES IN THE CPO COMPASS 2024

There will be procurement We would go back 50, 60 years The climate is actually changing
departments that keep in terms of our quality of life if and it’s costing business and
developing and there are others this semiconductor industrial economies money – that’s
that will not develop. Those will capability were to be not debatable. It’s not a
have a tough, tough time eliminated overnight political point, whether you
Detlef Schultz, former CEO of the Vodafone Geopolitical strategist John Sitilides on the threat think there’s more wildfires
Procurement Company, explains why advances in of Taiwan’s chip industry being cut off from the
technology leave procurement at a crossroads / page 8 world’s supply chains / page 21 and extreme weather... it’s
affecting your supply chain and
procurement choices
Sustainability strategist Andrew Winston on why
the commercial imperative behind sustainability
The big challenge for humans is really, if 80% of your job is stronger than ever / page 28

could be done for zero marginal cost, how much value is


the 20% you’re bringing?
Chris Mullan, SVP product, Eigen, on the coming AI workplace revolution / page 7

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SECTION 1 –
The new
digital frontier
What will rapid advances in robotics and AI
mean for the way procurement functions
and the nature of the supply chain?

TIMELINE WHAT COULD THE TECH LANDSCAPE LOOK LIKE BY 2030?

2025 2026 2027 2028 2030


Investment in AI to US retailer Walmart plans 83 million jobs lost and Market for generative AI GM, Mercedes and
reach $200bn, predicts to automate two-thirds of 69 million new roles created software to be worth $36bn, Volkswagen predict self-
Goldman Sachs its stores by automation, WEF projects according to S&P Global driving cars will be viable

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SECTION 1: THE NEW DIGITAL FRONTIER

WHAT IF... ...GENERATIVE AI BECOMES AS FIG 1: GENERATIVE AI MARKET VALUE, 2023–2028 ($BN)
UBIQUITOUS AS SPREADSHEETS? Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

Total market revenue

Year-on-year growth (%) 36.4


Less than two months after it launched in “The advent of AI will cause ripples similar to
November 2022, ChatGPT became the fastest- electrification.” says Peter Swartz, chief science
growing piece of consumer software in history – with officer at supply chain technology company Altana.
more than 100 million people using the platform to do AI. “We are living through a period in which we’ll see 27.2
everything from generating recipes to drafting their many new jobs created by the benefits of AI, and other 134.9

CV, writing wedding toasts and even composing rap jobs will either be changed or fade in necessity.”
lyrics in the style of a pirate. It appears we are at an inflection point with 19.5
It quickly became clear that the underlying generative AI as hosts of major software providers
technology of generative AI tools such as ChatGPT, rush to establish their own competitors to ChatGPT, 102.8
known as a large-language model (LLM), would have which was created by the Microsoft-backed OpenAI. 12.9
game-changing implications for businesses and the The potential applications of generative AI go beyond 71.1
economy at large – and procurement is no exception. producing text-based content, too, with a number
7.5 51.5
With their ability to understand user requests, of tools emerging that apply the same approach to
40
analyse large amounts of complex data, identify creating code, videos, music and images. 3.7
33.4
patterns and then generate a variety of outputs – So, how can procurement take advantage of these
all within seconds – LLMs hold huge potential opportunities, what does it mean for the future of
to transform the way we work and what our work and what role will regulation play in shaping 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
organisations are capable of achieving. our AI-powered future?

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SECTION 1: THE NEW DIGITAL FRONTIER

HOW COULD GENERATIVE AI CHANGE entirely. On the other hand, says Kasia Borowska, “We need to make sure that in whichever way
THE WAY WE WORK? managing director of BrainPool, an AI strategy and we can, we continuously increase our human
Myriad technology companies have already begun to services provider, many new ones will be created. intelligence – a higher level of creativity, strategic
develop tailored solutions applying generative AI to “It’s the same as what happened with digitisation – thinking, and things like that will be the things that will
business problems as diverse as drug development, everyone was scared and wondering what’s going to really matter,” says Borowska.
customer service and financial compliance. happen, all the postmen will lose their jobs because of Those who can really harness the potential of
With new solutions coming to market and some email,” she says. generative AI, in combination with their own distinctly
organisations even building their own in-house “And then hundreds of other jobs were created off human skills, have the opportunity to significantly
generative AI tools based on tech such as ChatGPT the back of it, like SEO experts and digital marketing, enhance their productivity and therefore their value to
(which recently launched an enterprise offering with whole industries came up from this evolution.” an organisation. Rather than spending large amounts
enhanced data security and support for integration) the For those office jobs that remain, the ability to work of time on repetitive and tedious tasks, skilled workers
impact on the way we work is set to be substantial. with generative AI tools – to write the right prompt will gain the freedom to focus on where they can
Chris Mullan, SVP of product at AI-powered data to generate the most valuable response – is likely to add value.
extraction technology provider Eigen, says LLMs will prove highly valuable. But, at the same time, those Mullan says: “They disproportionately favour those
allow for the automation of numerous work tasks skills that cannot be automated – at least in the near with some expertise – the more you know, the more
that were previously seen as being protected from future – will pay a premium. you can get out of an LLM.”
replacement due to their complexity. As machines become increasingly smart, there
From writing emails to compiling slide decks, have been inevitable questions about whether they
many of the specific tasks currently done by those could even take the place of senior managers. But
deemed as “knowledge workers” – especially those even if that were technically possible, the governance
in more junior roles – are more about expending time
We need to make sure that in whichever implications this brings up beg the question of
and effort than applying knowledge and are at risk of way we can, we continuously increase whether it would be desirable.
automation, he adds. our human intelligence – a higher level Rafael Ramirez, director of the Oxford Scenarios
“The big challenge for humans is really, if 80% of Programme and professor of practice the University
your job could be done for zero marginal cost, how of creativity, strategic thinking, and of Oxford’s Saïd Business School, asks: “If your next
much value is the 20% you’re bringing?” things like that will be the things that mega deal, or the next bunch of layoffs, or exiting
The implication for employers is multifaceted. The country X or entering country Y was premised on an
consensus among experts appears to be that a large
will really matter AI program, would you, as a as a senior executive,
number of less complex jobs are likely to be automated Kasia Borowska, BrainPool be happy and confident?”

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SECTION 1: THE NEW DIGITAL FRONTIER

WHERE WILL PROCUREMENT SEE can respond to user questions about topics such as
THE GREATEST IMPACT? their procurement strategy or generate insights about
Recognition of generative AI’s potential to a particular supply market. There will be procurement departments
revolutionise procurement among leadership teams We asked participants in the CPO Compass 2024
is mixed. While 46% of those who answered the survey to identify the parts of procurement’s remit who keep developing, and they will
CPO Compass 2024 survey said they believed the most ripe for transformation, as well as the areas become the business partner, the
technology would transform the function “to a in which they have already started to implement
facilitator, the orchestrator of the
great extent”, 48% said it would only transform the generative AI (see Figure 1, page 8).
function “somewhat”. In both cases, the top three results were: enterprise, and there are others that
And efforts to integrate generative AI in Market intelligence and research will not develop. Those will have a
procurement’s processes remain nascent; 43% of Administrative tasks and maintaining data
those surveyed said their function has made “very P2P processes tough, tough time
little” use of generative AI while 32% said they weren’t Detlef Schultz, AkiroLabs
using it at all. Functions risk being left behind if they This is hardly surprising, given that much of this
don’t grab this opportunity with both hands. work is straightforward and repetitive,and, in fact,
The potential has not gone unnoticed among already in the process of being automated including
procurement technology providers, with several through the use of bots that pre-date ChatGPT and
new tools coming to market in recent months. For the generative AI buzz. AkiroLabs cofounder Detlef Schultz, the former CEO
example, Altana AI uses generative AI to augment the At the other end of the scale are roles of Vodafone Procurement Company, says generative
value of its Atlas platform, a dynamic map of global that contain a major human element, such AI and advances in data analytics will allow forward-
supply chains informed by billions of data points, as stakeholder management, and training thinking procurement teams to make the most of their
which can be used to trace materials back to their and development. That said, given the broad position “at the crossroads of internal and external
source and identify flashpoints in the supply chain. possibilities offered up by generative AI, it seems information”, acting as a vital provider of insight, and
Generative AI allows users to identify problem vendors unlikely that any element of the function’s activities even foresight.
and products and to create regulatory documents at will be untouched by the technology – which could He adds: “There will be procurement departments
the touch of a button, as well as providing support conceivably used to deliver chatbot-based training, that keep developing and they will become the
through a chatbot. respond to stakeholder queries and generate business partner, the facilitator, the orchestrator of the
Meanwhile, procurement collaboration platform insights about the supply chain to share within enterprise, and there are others that will not develop.
AkiroLabs has created “AkiroGPT”, a tailored LLM that the organisation. Those will have a tough, tough time.”

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SECTION 1: THE NEW DIGITAL FRONTIER

FIG 2: APPLYING AI TO PROCUREMENT PROCESSES (% OF RESPONDENTS)

55
Market intelligence and research
20

Administrative tasks and 48


maintaining data 16

P2P processes 39

12

Sourcing management 27
and negotiation 8

Compliance and 27
risk management
5

15
Training and development
4

1
Stakeholder management
2

Processes that have the most potential to be Processes that have been affected by the
transformed by generative AI function’s use of generative AI services

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SECTION 1: THE NEW DIGITAL FRONTIER

ACTION POINTS
START EXPERIMENTING NOW EVALUATE HOW YOUR TALENT
NEEDS WILL EVOLVE

With generative AI seemingly here to Take the time to understand the specific
stay, it’s important that more functions tasks for which your team members are
seize the opportunity on offer. It’s easy responsible and evaluate which of these
to get started with basic applications are likely to be replaced or augmented by
such as using ChatGPT to analyse market generative AI. Consider what training you
intelligence or supplier performance data, will need to offer to support team members
review supplier communications or review in this transition and what new roles are
category strategies. likely to be needed in your future function.

ESTABLISH ROBUST AI INVEST TIME IN ENSURING THAT


GOVERNANCE POLICIES YOUR DATA IS AI-READY

Develop and communicate rules around Generative AI tools are only as useful
how tools should be used. This will enable as the information they are fed. Their
the organisation to protect sensitive data, increased use underscores the importance
dissuade staff from engaging in plagiarism of establishing a well-organised,
and ensure outputs are checked for biases comprehensive and reliable source of
and misinformation. procurement data

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SECTION 1: THE NEW DIGITAL FRONTIER

WHAT IF...
to the extinction of humankind, I think we should While most recognise the importance of
have a look at it.” regulating AI tools to prevent conflict or the
The European Union’s AI Act, passed in June, spread of disinformation, the political response to
introduces the world’s first set of comprehensive generative AI’s economic impacts is likely to prove
AI laws – although it came too late to specifically more controversial. For some, this is just the latest
...REGULATORS CLAMP regulate generative AI – and other jurisdictions productivity-enhancing breakthrough in a long
DOWN ON AI? are expected to follow suit in the near future. The
challenge for regulators is treading the tightrope
line dating back to the horse-drawn plough. But
if workplaces transform and workers are laid off
between stifling innovation and unleashing harm. go as rapidly some experts are suggesting, then
With reports of workers already being let go to be Altana AI’s chief science office Peter Swartz expect to see calls for a universal basic income –
replaced by ChatGPT and the likes of Goldman says: “These systems are increasing in capacity so funded by taxing the profits of AI providers – grow.
Sachs warning that as many as 300 million jobs quickly that any rigid policy will inevitably fail and
could be replaced by generative AI, many people fear have loopholes. Rather, we need very tight good-
they could lose their livelihoods. faith cooperation between government and industry
With AI’s sophistication progressing by leaps and to quickly identify and regulate problems through a
bounds, there are fresh worries of a Terminator-style mix of cooperation and legislation.” KEY FEATURES OF THE EU AI ACT
armageddon, with the machines taking over.
While such fears may be overblown, there are The world’s first attempt at a comprehensive
mounting calls for regulation to ensure AI remains legislative framework for the sale and use of
within human control. In March 2023, a group of artificial intelligence.
AI experts published an open letter warning of the
To be honest I am not a big Categorises different applications of AI based
potential for AI-generated misinformation, job losses supporter of regulation - on perceived levels of risk.
and even that “nonhuman minds that might eventually Those deemed as high-risk, such as AI
outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us”, as however, when it comes to the deployed in transport or healthcare, will have to
they called for a global pause on the development of undergo a conformity assessment to ensure
more powerful models. extinction of humankind, I think they function as expected.
“To be honest I am not a big supporter of we should have a look at it Also bans the use of applications which pose
regulation,” says Detlef Schultz, cofounder an “unacceptable risk”, such as cognitive
of AkiroLabs and former CEO of Vodafone Detlef Schultz, co-founder of AkiroLabs and behavioural manipulation, social scoring and
Procurement Company. “However.when it comes former CEO of Vodafone Procurement Company remote facial recognition.

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SECTION 1: THE NEW DIGITAL FRONTIER

WHAT IF...
Whereas specialised robots come with the physically feel things. Together with advances in the
cost and complexity of being delicately integrated AI software that powers the robot, these have the
into existing systems and environments, general- potential to significantly expand the range of tasks
purpose humanoids can slot into their new that can be fulfilled by machines.
workplace with relative ease. As with advances in computer-based AI,
...ROBOTS BECOME AS “The entire world’s infrastructure has been put these breakthroughs are likely to necessitate

AGILE AS HUMANS? in place to accommodate the human form factor–


doorknobs, glasses, tools, entire factories,” says
significant upskilling and reskilling of the existing
workforce, although Wells suggests the impact
Wells. “From a customer standpoint, you don’t need on jobs will be somewhat offset by projected
Recent leaps forward in AI are not confined solely to change your SOPs, you don’t need to rip out stuff declining populations in most of the world’s
to the digital realm. Since the robot Unimate and put new things in: your operations can continue developed economies.
joined the production line at General Motors’ plant as planned with task automation occuring within Many of Sanctuary’s customers are looking to
in Ewing, New Jersey, in 1961, scientists have the existing infrastructure.” automate jobs that currently have extremely high
been developing new ways for machines to take A big focus when it comes to hardware is the turnover rates, he adds. “Not only does this improve
on physically demanding, labour-intensive and development of more dextrous and sensitive operational efficiencies, but it also helps take
dangerous work previously undertaken by humans. hands – which perform a large proportion of the employees out of jobs that simply aren’t desirable
So far, most of the robots deployed in the work done by humans. for people – whether they be too repetitive or too
workplace have been specialised machines, Sanctuary’s hands are now able to move with dangerous – and allows them to perform more
capable of one or two specific jobs – from welding 20 degrees of freedom – the same as those of a rewarding work.”
car doors to extruding copper wire and vacuum- human hand. The company has also made strides From a supply chain perspective, general
packing groceries. But recent hardware and in haptics – essentially a machine’s ability to purpose robots also have the potential to support
software advances mean that general purpose recent efforts to “reshore” production away from
robots, capable of a wide variety of tasks, could low-cost countries. As the cost of using robots

84%
soon be a common sight on the factory floor. falls, we are likely to reach a point where they
Long the preserve of science-fiction movies, become cheaper to employ than even the lowest-
humanoid robots offer a few distinctive advantages, paid people. That could shift the balance in favour
says James Wells, chief commercial officer of manufacturing products near their consumer
at Sanctuary AI, whose Phoenix robot aims to The projected increase in industrial robot rather than on the other side of the world –
replicate both the physical and mental abilities of installations between 2020 and 2026 offering an opportunity to both cut costs and
human workers. Source: Industrial Federation of Robotics boost supply chain resilience.

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SECTION 1: THE NEW DIGITAL FRONTIER

WHAT IF...
Whereas conventional computers perform Chris Mullan, SVP of product at Eigen, says: “It’s
calculations using classical “bits”, representing 1s such a huge shift... I think we’d have to come up
and 0s, quantum computers work with quantum with wholly new ways of thinking about AI to make
bits (or qubits), which are capable of representing 1 use of that mode of computing.”
and 0 at the same time. One area likely to face challenges is
...QUANTUM COMPUTING While the science of this is complicated, the key cybersecurity. Today’s encryption methods rely on

GOES MAINSTREAM? thing to understand is that this allows quantum


computers to perform multiple calculations
cryptographic ciphers that are almost impossible
to crack using supercomputers due to their
simultaneously – and therefore offers the potential mathematical complexity. Quantum computers
From mapping out complex logistics networks to perform very complex calculations far more threaten to undermine this system with their
to modelling the behaviour of a molecule or quickly than today’s supercomputers. hypothetically exponential computational power.
simulating the flow of air around an aircraft There are hopes that the commercialisation of But procurement teams already struggling to
component, the computer calculations powering quantum computing will accelerate the power of AI, get a grasp on cybersecurity in their supply chains
businesses are growing increasingly complex – but with the technology still in its early stages, its can breathe a sigh of relief for the time being – this
and will become even more so when AI is thrown impact remains difficult eventuality is thought to be at least a decade away.
into the mix. to predict.
With this increasing complexity comes a
need for ever-greater and greater amounts of
computing power, with the global market for
supercomputers forecast to grow by more than
10% each year until 2032, according to data from
Precedence Research.
This demand comes with considerable cost.
The physical space required to house such
enormous power is substantial, and requires a
great degree of energy, cooling and ventilation.
Some in the industry hope that advances in
quantum computing can cater to this booming
demand and solve problems too complex to be
handled by the current generation of computers.

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PARTNER’S PERSPECTIVE

THE FUNDAMENTALS OF BUILDING AN AI-CENTRIC PROCUREMENT FUNCTION

SARATENDU SETHI,  gility: AI facilitates swift adaptation to evolving


A  lack of executive digital fluency.
A
VP AI, GEP and global conditions, regulatory changes and Unclear and overly optimistic expectations.
RAKHI MULLICK, market fluctuations.
VP digital Attention: By automating time-consuming tasks, AI To harness AI’s full potential, organisations must
transformation, GEP liberates professionals to concentrate on strategic, decide whether to rely solely on software providers or
high-impact endeavours. cultivate in-house capabilities. Striking a balance involves
Augmentation: AI equips individuals with the harnessing AI embedded in applications while using low-
AI already plays a key role in how procurement software tools to acquire new skills and explore uncharted code AI-powered platforms to address specific needs.
works, but it will also drive how your team interacts territories. Generative AI, epitomised by large language
with the the world and, subsequently, how your Accuracy: AI bolsters decision-making by providing models (LLMs), emerges as a tool that bridges the
enterprise conducts business. Unlike other tech trends precise, reliable insights grounded in data analysis. gap between human expertise and data-driven
that have quickly petered out, enterprises are fast- Impact: The purpose of the digital transformation insights, delivering tangible benefits to organisations.
tracking investments in AI. Applied AI has the potential journey is to continually improve outcomes. Key procurement activities will experience a
to fundamentally solve challenges around process dramatic shift. The job of category management will
complexity, data management and user engagement. AVOIDING DISAPPOINTING OUTCOMES evolve from managing suppliers and contracts to
Given the accelerated speed of adoption, it is no While AI offers huge potential – expediting spend managing supplier relationships and risk. Managing
surprise that the majority of CPO Compass 2024 analysis, sourcing and administrative tasks, among spend will rely on autonomous sourcing rather than
respondents said AI will impact procurement to at other procurement activities – it is not without risk. e-auction events. Procurement operations will take on
least some extent. However, far fewer respondents What are some ways to ensure the least disruption the role of managing AI operations agents.
have begun to use generative AI. while maximising returns? The transformative power of AI is poised to
Why should procurement professionals adopt an AI- Some of the typical reasons for a suboptimal revolutionise procurement and supply chain
centric approach sooner rather than later? The answer outcome include: management, but success hinges on the right
lies in the five As – and one I – of AI transformation: Inherent gaps in user adoption and behaviour. partnerships and technology. The key lies in striking a
Adeptness: AI empowers businesses to Imbalance between process complexity and solution. balance between integrating AI into existing systems
accomplish more with fewer resources, optimising Underestimating the criticality and complexity of and leveraging customisable AI solutions to meet
both processes and assets. data and content strategy. specific organisational needs.

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SECTION 2:

The global
trade race
With resilience now the watch-word in
procurement, how will evolving geopolitical
relationships and the rise of new powers
affect the shape of supply chains?

TIMELINE SUPPLY CHAINS SHIFT AS APAC CONTINUES TO RISE

2025 2025 2027 2027 2030


Taiwan Semiconductor Apple plans to The IMF predicts India will China’s president Xi Jinping Asia-Pacific region
Manufacturing Company manufacture 25% of its overtake Germany and Japan has reportedly told its projected to account for
aims to open its first US iPhone in India – up from to become the world’s third- military to be ready for an half of global GDP
plant in Arizona around 7% currently largest economy invasion of Taiwan

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SECTION 2: THE GLOBAL TRADE RACE

WHAT IF... ...GLOBALISATION GOES INTO REVERSE?


FIG 3: GLOBAL TRADE AS A SHARE OF GDP, 1980-2021 (%)

70

60

For Harry Moser, the impetus to bring supply chains of a fierce argument for many years, with most
back to the US is not economic or political, its personal. mainstream economists making the case that freer 50

Moser’s grandfather worked for a major supplier trade boosts prosperity both at home and abroad.
to the Singer sewing machine factory in Elizabeth, But thanks to the disruption wrought by the
New Jersey. His father later ran part of the factory, Covid-19 pandemic, the impact of Russia’s invasion 40

and Moser himself also worked there for a couple of Ukraine and fears of escalating tensions between

Source: World Bank


of summers earlier in his career. But having begun China and the west, talk of reshoring is growing.
30
life as the world’s biggest factory of its kind in 1857, Demand for factory space in Europe rocketed
employing 6,000 people, it was shuttered in 1982. 29% in 2022 as companies sought to locate more of
“I drove past 20 years ago and it was all gone,” their manufacturing base safely in nearby markets, 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Moser recalls. “Everything was replaced by lower- according to real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield.
priced imports.” Meanwhile, analysis by Bank of America found that
He later went on to have a successful career mentions of reshoring on S&P 500 earnings calls more
in machine tools, including 25 years at helm of than doubled year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023.
GF AgieCharmilles. But, after seeing many of his “In 2010, when we started, the total [number of global economy” was under threat, as geopolitical
customers experience a similar fate to Singer’s jobs created due to] reshoring and foreign direct tensions lead to “fragmentation” of trade flows.
Elizabeth plant, Moser decided to launch the Reshoring investment was 6,000 and last year the total was With supply chain resilience now a key focus
Initiative and focus his time on campaigning to bring 360,000 – so 60 times as many in 13 years,” of many procurement functions, trade tensions
manufacturing jobs back to the US. Moser says. mounting and automation making it cheaper to
As a critic of the current model of globalisation, In September 2023, the World Trade Organization manufacture in developed economies, could we be
Moser has found himself on the unfashionable side warned that the “future of an open and predictable about to see a slump in cross-border trade?

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SECTION 2: THE GLOBAL TRADE RACE

WHAT’S DRIVING TALK OF RESHORING? Sitilides says these actions, combined with
Successive crises – from Covid-19 to the energy anger towards China for its role in the Covid-19
shortage and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – have pandemic, have spurred governments to reevaluate
exposed the many vulnerabilities present in today’s their dependence on the country’s supply chains –
complex international supply chains, placing supply especially in strategically important markets such
resilience among procurement’s top priorities. as pharmaceuticals, energy, communications and
While the international picture has calmed down military hardware.
somewhat compared to the height of the Covid-19 “Western consumers and consumers worldwide
crisis in 2020, several potential threats linger on the [will] continue to enjoy the benefits of relatively
horizon. Perhaps chief among these is the fractious inexpensive iPhones, furniture, T-shirts and whatnot,”
relationship between the west and China. he says. “But those areas of international commerce
The world’s largest exporter, China is a key actor that involve the wellbeing of nation states, I think, are
in many supply chains; dominating the market for going to get a far closer look from most responsible
everything from electronic devices and components governments for years, if not decades to come.” The argument for bringing manufacturing closer to
to plastic products, industrial equipment and rare It would be wrong to see the west’s economic the consumer isn’t just about avoiding risk, though.
earth minerals vital to the energy transition. “decoupling” from China as a one-way street. Its Shorter supply chains also offer reduced logistics
John Sitilides, a geopolitical strategist at Trilogy president Xi Jinping’s Made in China 2025 initiative, costs, greater agility in responding to changing
Advisors, and diplomacy consultant under contract launched in 2015, aims to reduce the country’s consumer demands and lower carbon emissions.
to the US Department of State, says the Chinese reliance on foreign technologies and increase the “Offshoring is much less efficient because
government has become “a far more belligerent, domestic content of manufactured goods, particularly productivity is lower,” says Moser. “You have more
aggressive, and often hostile country, especially to its in key industries such as robotics, aerospace, labour per unit of output. You have more inventory
immediate neighbours in Asia,” since Xi Jinping’s rise renewable energy and biotech. because of long deliveries. You have more pollution.
to power in 2012. The potential for China-related disruption is, of By almost any measure that you want to use,
As well as the government’s much-discussed course, just one threat. Complex global supply chains offshoring is less efficient than doing it locally.”
designs on Taiwan (see What if... China invades could be disrupted by any number of phenomena, from In 2021, Italian fashion house Benetton said it was
Taiwan, page 20), that includes fractious territorial a meltdown of the global financial system to extreme shifting production from markets such as Bangladesh
disputes with a number of its neighbours over island weather (see What if... global temperature rises exceed and China to Serbia, Croatia and the Middle East,
chains off its coast, as China seeks to tighten its 1.5° by 2027, page 30) or, as was the case with Covid-19, citing shorter lead times and lower transport costs,
control on some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. something that’s barely even on CPOs’ radars. for instance.

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THE BARRIERS TO RESHORING as well as promoting the merits of a career That said, rapid developments in automation
While reshoring may offer some compelling upsides, in manufacturing. have the potential to address both of these
the challenges are substantial. “Even if people are economically better off going challenges, as the decreasing cost of manufacturing
Senior procurement professionals who responded down the skilled work route, there’s a kind of cultural a product using a robot in an advanced economy
to Procurement Leaders’ CPO Compass 2024 survey challenge to convincing people that’s what they ought meets the rapidly increasing cost of wages in
cited a variety of challenges inhibiting efforts to to be doing,” he says. developing markets.
derisk supply chains, including difficulty finding and
qualifying new suppliers, logistics issues and, above
all, cost (see Figure 4, right). FIG 4: BARRIERS TO RESHAPING SUPPLY CHAINS (% OF RESPONDENTS)
One of, if not the, biggest driving forces behind
globalisation has been wage disparities between
developed and developing countries; making it
Cost 45
vastly cheaper to manufacture products in areas
such as east and south-east Asia. While those
Difficulty finding new suppliers 16.7
disparities remain, that is going to be a difficult
barrier to overcome – even factoring in the money
Lack of capacity in alternative countries 10
organisations would save as a result of leveraging
shorter shipping routes and experiencing fewer
Trade barriers/regulations in potential supply markets 6.7
disruptions, and especially given the booming levels of
inflation businesses are currently dealing with.
Regulations in consumer markets 6.7
Skills are also a big factor. In the US, half a million
manufacturing job openings remain unfilled, according
Proximity to market 6.7
to the country’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Research
by British industry body Make UK, meanwhile, found
Logistical challenges 6.7
that 36% of vacancies in manufacturing are proving
difficult to hire for.
Resources 1.7
The Reshoring Initiative’s Moser says that for
reshoring to gain momentum, governments are going
to have to invest in the right educational opportunities,

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NOT RESHORING, BUT FRIENDSHORING? “The Chinese have done a good job extending the WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PROCUREMENT
While bringing whole supply chains back to the reach of their ecosystems to neighbouring countries”, With cost savings both procurement’s number one
countries where their consumers are might not be says Morrison. “While the face might be Vietnamese priority and its most important performance metric,
cost-effective for companies at the moment, many and while the person across the table may speak and the economic rationale behind offshoring hard
businesses are looking to other countries – including Vietnamese, the person behind the scenes who is to overcome, it’s too early to call time on the era of
Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines – as “safer” pulling the strings is in China.” globalisation. But, as the threat of deeper geopolitical
alternatives to China. This can often take the form of While it is going to be near-impossible for any one unease lingers, there is a clear appetite to reshape
a so-called “China+1” strategy, with buyers seeking country to supplant China’s export-oriented industrial supply chains.
secondary suppliers of materials currently sourced in ecosystems entirely, one that hopes to make a Of the senior procurement executives who
China, in the hope these vendors can ensure supply particularly big dent is India. responded to Procurement Leaders’ CPO
continuity should their main source be disrupted. “For procurement leaders in tech supply chains, Compass 2024 survey, less than one-third said they
Allen Morrison, a professor at Arizona State India’s going to look rosier and rosier, it’s rolling out were not looking to reshore or diversify their supply
University’s Thunderbird School of Global Teflon-coated red carpets,” says Megha Kumar, chain away from “risky” markets, with the remainder
Management and an expert on China’s political deputy director of analysis at Oxford Analytica and saying they already had initiatives underway or were
economy, says that while this strategy can be quite an expert on the political economy of India. exploring opportunities to do so.
straightforward for simple consumer goods, things “It sees China as a competitor in low-cost There is no single answer to how functions
get much more complicated when it comes to manufacturing and…with China’s mounting problems, should approach this challenge. While a lot of basic
sourcing more sophisticated technology. India wants to position itself as the democratic pro- commodities and goods can be second-sourced with
“China has built these ecosystems that tend to be manufacturing, pro-foreign-capital alternative to China.” relative ease, the supply chains for some materials will
geographically centralised in a different part of the While it has some way to go, the world’s largest be near-impossible to shift in the near-term given cost
countryn and, if you are a business that is embedded country by population is investing heavily in the and/or capability barriers.
in one of these ecosystems, leaving the country or infrastructure and skills required to lure multinational For those that harbour the ambition to build new
diversifying away from China means committing to companies’ manufacturing supply chains to its shores. ecosystems to enable the manufacture of more
another ecosystem that likely doesn’t exist.” That’s already beginning to bear fruit. For complex products – as Apple is in India – there is no
Replicating such an ecosystem in another country instance giant Apple has already begun to shift the time like the present.
in the region is going to be very difficult, he adds. manufacture of iPhones to India, in partnership with “China’s supply chains took over 30 years to build,”
Furthermore, even when companies do manage to its major supplier Foxconn. Analysts at JPMorgan Kumar tells Procurement Leaders. “Supply chain
qualify new suppliers, they may not be as substantial a predict that 25% of iPhones could be made in the diversification is being done. It is expensive and slow,
firewall against China as hoped. country by 2025. but it will need to be done.”

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ACTION POINTS
ANALYSE YOUR INPUTS DON’T LEAVE IT TOO LATE

Consider which at-risk materials could Building new supplier ecosystems is a


be second-sourced or reshored without long-term process, requiring patience
difficulty and which will require a more and determination. The faster leaders
complex approach. inject resource into scouting a new supply
market and building relationships with
suppliers, the sooner they will be able to
support the organisation’s needs

INVEST IN TALENT DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE

Consider how the business can Your new supplier may be based in a
support suppliers in its home market country with a lower risk exposure, but
or other locations you’d like to source where are their suppliers based? What other
from to develop the skills they need to business relationships do key suppliers
expand their manufacturing capacity have that could threaten to interrupt
and capabilities. continuity of supply?

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WHAT IF...
businesses around the world. The 2020 shortage
left half-finished cars waiting on production lines,
companies struggling to find enough laptops for
homeworkers and delayed the launch of Apple’s
What we do know is that
iPhone 12. the destructive output of an
...CHINA INVADES TAIWAN? But John Sitilides, a geopolitical strategist at
Trilogy Advisors and diplomacy consultant under invasion would be cataclysmic
For an island around half the size of Scotland, contract to the US Department of State, suggests
Taiwan plays an outsized role in the global it is difficult to comprehend just how cataclysmic
for Taiwan and probably destroy
economy. In fact, just one of its businesses, it would be for the global economy to lose access its advanced semiconductor
the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to TSMC’s products.
Company (TSMC), produces 70% of the world’s “We would go back 50, 60 years in terms of industrial capability, which
silicon chips and 90% of the most advanced ones. our quality of life if this semiconductor industrial
We’ve already seen what a shortage of these capability were to be eliminated overnight,” he says. would probably sink the
chips, which can be found anywhere from an Unfortunately that’s not a totally implausible global economy into a near
Airbus A380 to an electric toothbrush, can do to prospect as the Chinese Community Party (CCP)
continues to engage in sabre-rattling over Taiwan’s term depression
future. CIA director William Burns has warned

70%
John Sitilides, Trilogy Advisors
that Xi Jinping, China’s president, has ordered its
military to prepare for an invasion as soon as 2027
and military drills in the area have been intensifying.
Proportion of the world’s silicon China’s desire to control Taiwan is historic
and cultural, but also strategic. In an ideal world, Democratic, western-facing Taiwan has little
chips produced by TSMC
from the CCP’s perspective, Taiwan would appetite for such an arrangement, hence why

90%
peacefully agree to unification – perhaps with military action is on the table. However, a military
a similar degree of autonomy to that afforded invasion would likely be bad news for everybody,
Hong Kong and Macau. The newly expanded including China.
China would enjoy control, not just over the Sitilides says: “What we do know is that the
Percentage of advanced chips world’s semiconductors, but also one of its most destructive output of an invasion would be
the company manufactures important shipping lanes. cataclysmic for Taiwan and probably destroy its

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SECTION 2: THE GLOBAL TRADE RACE

advanced semiconductor industrial capability, Semiconductor Industry Association estimates


COUNTRY POLICY FUNDING
which would probably sink the global economy the act has generated $200bn of private sector
into a near term depression.” investment in the field.
US CHIPS Act (2022) $54bn
The loss of life would be on a grand scale, But Taiwan’s semiconductor expertise and
especially if any conflict draws in direct military ecosystems are complex and long-established,
support from Taiwan’s allies in Asia and the west, and even the most generous of subsidies will EU CHIPS Act €42bn (proposed)
he adds. “So, it’s in almost every party’s interest to struggle to replicate that success in the short
avoid a war over Taiwan”. term. TSMC has already delayed plans to open its Spain PERTE CHIP €12bn
Allen Morrison, a professor at Arizona State Arizona plant, citing a shortage of skilled workers.
University’s Thunderbird School of Global “To do this most effectively, we would have to Production-Linked
Management and an expert on China’s political essentially supplant the American semiconductor India $10bn
Incentive Scheme
economy, says he believes an invasion is unlikely industrial base with that of Taiwan, and that’s not
Semiconductor
given the potential impact on China itself. going to happen,” Sitilides says.
UK Infrastructure Up to £1bn
But as the world has seen with Russia’s Harry Moser, president of the Reshoring
Initiative
invasion of Ukraine, sometimes political leaders Initiative campaign group, warns that chips
do not act rationally. are only part of the puzzle. With China itself
“The imperative to do it in terms of economics dominating manufacturing of many electronic
is minimal,” Morrison says, “But, in China, politics devices, “we’re gonna have to convince [China] to
seems to trump most things.” buy our overpriced chips…to make the things that
Recognising the threat to the semiconductor they are gonna ship back to us.”
supply chain,the US and the EU, among others, As with Russia and Ukraine, any Chinese
have dedicated tens of billions of dollars worth attempt to take Taiwan by force – even if it did
of funding and tax incentives to subsidise the not lead to wider conflict – would likely result in
development of chip manufacturing supply sanctions and public pressure on companies to
chains – with some success. cut their ties with China at large. So irrespective of
TSMC itself announced plans to establish a whether you’re a high-tech company that imports
plant in Arizona, and other manufacturers have sophisticated semiconductors from Taiwan or a
followed in its wake, especially following the retailer sourcing rubber ducks from Guanghzou
passing of 2022’s Creating Helpful Incentives to on the mainland, CPOs need to consider their
Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) Act. The US contingency plans.

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CAN...
“You need the population to be healthy,” she says. Gender imbalances will also need to be
“You need them to be educated and to have skills addressed for India to reach its full potential, says
that are useful in the economy. Third, they need Sitilides, with just one-quarter of Indian women in
jobs where they can actually realise their potential, paid work, compared to 74% of men as stubborn
innovate and increase their household income. It is attitudes prove hard to shift.
...INDIA BECOME THE NEXT those missing ingredients that are problematic.” Allen Morrison, a professor at Arizona State
ECONOMIC SUPERPOWER? India’s primary and secondary schools need
a major overhaul and massive investment, she
University’s Thunderbird School of Global
Management, says a lack of infrastructure is also
says, “from resources to playgrounds, to books to holding India back. “Although it is getting better, in
Few countries stand to hold a more significant role teacher training to an updated syllabus”. terms of the number of paved roads and ports, rail,
in determining the direction of the future global Around one-quarter of India’s adults lack basic internet access, power generation, and so on”.
economy than India. literacy skills, compared to fewer than 5% in China. If it can address these challenges, there is a
“India has been a spotlight country for years, if not Although India’s highly praised university system sense that India could to some extent emulate
decades. But it may finally be reaching that threshold can demonstrate some massive success stories, China’s remarkable rise over the past few years to
moment where it becomes a player – not only on the such as Sundar Pichai becoming CEO of Google- global superpower status. But, if it does so, India
Asian continent, but on the global stage,” says John owner Alphabet, “you need thousands more of such will be following its own distinct path.
Sitilides, geopolitical strategist at Trilogy Advisors. elite institutions, in order to be able to keep up with “You’re not going to have the kind of dependence
One of the fastest-growing economies in the G20, the demand of the labour force and the economy,” on mass industrial manufacturing that really
India is home to more than one-sixth of the world’s says Kumar. brought China out of poverty over the last 30
population. And its citizens are young, with an average years,” says Sitilides, pointing to India’s success in
age of 28.7 – around a decade younger than those in INDIA IN NUMBERS the digital, financial services and communications
both the US and China (see Figure 5, page 23). sectors. “The fact that India does not have to
POPULATION 1.4 billion
That so-called demographic dividend holds huge replicate the Chinese model gives it the opportunity
potential for India, both as an agile and enterprising MEDIAN AGE 28.7 to create a brand new model for rapid growth.”
workforce to build its economy and as an increasingly GDP (nominal) $3.7tn
For those in the rest of the world, India offers the
wealthy consumer base to drive domestic demand. hope of acting as a counterweight to China’s growing
But Megha Kumar, deputy director of analysis GDP PER CAPITA (nominal) $2,600 influence on the world economy. But, as seen with
at Oxford Analytica and an expert on the political GDP GROWTH RATE (2022–23) 5.9% its votes at the UN, for instance, abstaining on a
economy of India, says making the most of that resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
ADULT LITERACY RATE 77.7%
potential will be a challenge. India ultimately has its own interests to protect.

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“For the most part, India is looking to be more The reign of current prime minister, Narendra at the institutional level,” says Kumar. “It’s not just
integrated into the global economy around terms Modi, who came to power in 2014, has proven suppressing criticism by putting some journalists
that are set in the west, not in the east,” says Kumar. controversial on a number of fronts. Most notably, he in jail and starting baseless legal cases against civil
“Russia is one of the largest defense suppliers to has faced criticism for his government’s treatment society opponents, but also by changing laws to
India, and an increasingly big oil supplier. They are of political opponents, journalists and members of increase state surveillance powers and by stacking
not going to compromise that relationship, Ukraine India’s 200 million-strong Muslim minority. the judiciary. That takes a generation to fix.”
or not.” “What is ironic, really, is that India seeks global Regardless of its political situation, India’s
Sitilides adds: “India is going to be a partner, but leadership at forums such as the UN and the G20 by demographic profile and economic trajectory are
never a junior ally of the US, or any other power, for highlighting its democratic credentials and, yet, that likely to make it one of, if not the most, important
that matter.” is precisely what the current government is undoing, actors in the global economy this century.

FIG 5: POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE AND GENDER – INDIA, CHINA AND US, 2023 (%)

INDIA CHINA US
4% 3% 2% 1% 0 1% 4% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 1% 0 1% 2% 5 3% 4 4% 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 5 3 4 4 3 5 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5

MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE


100+ 100+ 100+
95-99 95-99 95-99
90-94 90-94 90-94
85-89 85-89 85-89
80-84 80-84 80-84
75-79 75-79 75-79
70-74 70-74 70-74
65-69 65-69 65-69
60-64 60-64 60-64
55-59 55-59 55-59
50-54 50-54 50-54
45-49 45-49 45-49
40-44 40-44 40-44
35-39 35-39 35-39
30-34 30-34 30-34
25-29 25-29 25-29
20-24 20-24 20-24
15-19 15-19 15-19
10–14 10–14 10–14
5–9 5–9 5–9
0-4 0-4 0-4

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

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PARTNER’S PERSPECTIVE

AN ACTION PLAN TO FUTURE-PROOF SUPPLY CHAINS

Krish Vengat N., VP consulting, GEP supplier relationship management systems and work supplier sustainability, reducing carbon emissions,
closely with suppliers to mitigate risks. and ensuring responsible sourcing. Exploring
Most leaders have integrated circular economy initiatives – which involve reusing,
the lessons from Covid-19 into 3. Institute risk management and continuity planning: refurbishing or recycling products and materials –
their plans to withstand future Proactively identifying and assessing supply chain risks, can contribute to a reduced environmental footprint.
disruptions: 96% of CPO Compass encompassing geopolitical, environmental, economic
respondents said they feel well- or and operational factors, is critical. Leveraging real-time 6. Build supply chains with agility and flexibility
somewhat prepared for another global pandemic. data and advanced analytics tools can revolutionise risk in mind: Establish adaptive procurement strategies
While CPOs are adept at handling turbulence, the monitoring. Once risks have been identified, develop that accommodate shifts in demand, supply
imperative to future-proof supply chains remains. comprehensive continuity plans to ensure uninterrupted disruptions and market changes. Agility empowers
Ensuring resilience, continuity and cost management business operations amid challenging circumstances. supply chains to withstand unforeseen challenges.
is an ongoing necessity in a volatile world. Here is an
action plan to help navigate this evolving landscape: 4. Diversify the supplier base: Overreliance on a 7. Invest in talent: A proficient and knowledgeable
single supplier or geographic region exposes the team is paramount to execution. Invest in talent
1. Embrace digital transformation: This is the bedrock supply chain to vulnerabilities. CPOs should explore development, provide continuous training and
of future-proofing supply chains. Automation, artificial alternative suppliers and regions to establish a cultivate a culture of innovation within the function.
intelligence and data analytics streamline processes, diversified and robust supplier base to minimise
enhance visibility and support decision-making. disruption risks and enhance flexibility. CPOs have a significant role in ensuring their
Investing in these tools is paramount to delivering organisations’ resilience and prosperity. Digital
efficiency, reducing errors and adapting to change. 5. Reinforce sustainability and ethical practices: transformation, collaboration, risk mitigation and
Leaders are incorporating ESG best practices agility enable CPOs to proactively navigate challenges
2. Foster supplier collaboration: Robust supplier to drive performance, mitigate risk and ensure while sustainability, ethical practices and ongoing
relationships are pivotal to building resilient compliance. Sustainability is more than a buzzword; improvement further fortify future-proofed supply
supply chains. Collaboration fosters improved it’s a core element of supply chain future-proofing. chains. The journey is multifaceted but, with the right
communication, flexibility and a shared commitment Integrate ethical and sustainable practices into strategies and a forward-thinking approach, CPOs can
to success. Encourage this collaboration, implement procurement strategies – this involves assessing point the way to a more secure and prosperous future.

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SECTION 3:
The climate
countdown Can blooming efforts to make
progress on ESG withstand a political
backlash and what does extreme
weather mean for supply chains?

TIMELINE GOVERNMENTS PLAN CRACKDOWNS AS THE WORLD CONTINUES TO WARM

2025 2026 2028 2030 2030


The latest that emissions EU to impose toughest There’s a 98% chance Earth will Netherlands, Singapore, The year by which more than
can peak for the world anti-greenwashing see the hottest year on record Sweden, Greece and 100 countries have pledged
to avoid temperatures rules, with ban on and a 66% chance temperature Iceland to ban new sales to end deforestation. Based
reaching the key 1.5°C claims based on rises temporarily exceed 1.5°C, of internal combustion on current trends, experts are
warming threshold carbon offsetting according to the WMO engine-powered cars skeptical this can be met

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WHAT IF... ...ECONOMIC TURBULENCE ERODES


ENTHUSIASM FOR ESG?
There was a time when sustainability was little more against the use of ESG criteria in public investment
than a niche issue for the business community, as it decisions were introduced in the legislatures of
focused on a narrow understanding of shareholder 37 US states, according to consultants Pleiades
value that emphasised short-term profits over the Strategy. Meanwhile UK prime minister Rishi Sunak
long-term future of the planet. has scaled back the government’s efforts to hit net
It’s clear those days are over. Blackrock, the zero by 2050 while committing to allow more than
world’s biggest asset manager, has placed ESG 100 new oil and gas extraction licenses.
at the heart of its strategy, leveraging its financial The backlash has been felt in financial markets,
might to demand that corporations cut their carbon with investors pulling a record £953m from ESG-
emissions, promote diversity and protect human focused equity funds in August, according to
rights. Chief sustainability officers are a common financial data provider Calastone – the fourth Sustainability teams are already overstretched,
sight on executive committees. And businesses consecutive month of net outflows. with recent research for the Sustainability Planning
tout their ethical credentials to cater to increasingly That comes amid a generally worsening economic Guide 2024, published by Sustainability Leaders,
socially conscious workers and consumers. While outlook, with the World Bank predicting global found a lack of dedicated headcount and budgetary
progress in many areas remains slow, corporate growth of just 2.4% next year (and just 1.2% for constraints to be two of the function’s biggest
sustainability has, at least in terms of sentiment, advanced economies), and business confidence internal barriers to success.
become mainstream. at its lowest level since the height of the Covid-19 Could this combination of political pressure and
But signs of a backlash are emerging. Between pandemic – threatening to put a dampener on economic turbulence threaten to undermine the drive
January and June 2023, 165 bills and resolutions investment levels. for ESG?

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HOW WILL SUSTAINABILITY EFFORTS Andrew Winston, a sustainability strategist and Support for initiatives to tackle climate change and
FARE IN A WORLD OF TURBULENCE? author, along with former Unilever boss Paul Polma, improve society among millennials and generation Z
Karsten Machholz, professor of supply chain of the bestselling book Net Positive, says the clear also means that long-term pressure is only likely to
management at the Technical University Of Applied and growing imperative to tackle climate change is grow as these people begin to make up a greater
Sciences Würzburg-Schweinfurt, says those in keeping businesses focused on their aims. proportion of the workforce and consumer base.
commercial roles can be tempted to postpone “The climate is actually changing and it’s Political pressure has led to some businesses to
sustainability initiatives as they contend with more costing business and economies money – that’s take a less overt approach to ESG, especially on social
immediate threats. not debatable. It’s not a political point, whether issues, Winston adds. “But I haven’t really seen it change
“A big challenge is the capex, you need to set up you think there’s more wildfires and extreme how much they’re doing behind the scenes. “They’re
things that do not have an immediate payback,” weather, and it’s affecting your supply chain and still cutting emissions, buying renewables, working on
he says. “As most of the people are appointed for procurement choices.” diversity, and so on – because it’s good business.”
two, three, four or five years, they are pretty much
shareholder-driven. They are more likely to fulfill their
deliverables in terms of increasing revenue, increasing
growth, increasing shareholder value or dividends, FIG 5: GLOBAL AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE, 1880–2020 (°C)
rather than having a longer-term perspective.”
ºC DIFFERENCE FROM THE 1901 – 2000 AVERAGE

0.9
Key to countering this short-termism will be
regulation, he says, and while some law-makers 0.6
are pushing back against ESG initiatives, many are
pressing ahead wirh new laws. 0.3

The European Union’s Corporate Sustainability


Reporting Directive, which will mandate companies 0.0

operating in the bloc to disclose information on a


-0.3
range of sustainability factors, will begin to take effect
in 2024. The US Securities and Exchange Commission -0.6
is expected to finalise proposed climate disclosure
rules in October. Meanwhile, from this financial year, -0.9

India’s top 1,000 listed companies will be forced to file 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

ESG reports.

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WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PROCUREMENT Winston says it is important to link metrics with long-
With many environmental and social issues arising term and tangible goals, such as cutting emissions or
within the supply chain, procurement teams help to protecting the water supply, adding: “The metric itself Are your procurement officers actually
drive corporate sustainability strategies and this role is isn’t that useful if it’s not fully tied to the larger picture.”
only likely to expand. For common metrics such as carbon emissions,
incentivised to understand sustainability
More than three-quarters (77%) of procurement many have already adopted internationally recognised metrics, measure them and reward them
executives who responded to the CPO Compass 2024 standards, such as the Carbon Disclosure Project. in your supply chain? It’s not as common
survey said that pressure from the C-suite on ESG Others, such as social impact, biodiversity or human
performance had increased in the past three years, rights, are much harder to standardise. as it needs to be
even as companies faced the impact of Covid-19, In these cases, functions should consider what Andrew Winston, sustainability strategist and author
energy shortages and soaring inflation. measures are most relevant to their organisation’s
With greater scrutiny and, in some cases, environment and objectives, and develop their own
scepticism of ESG mounting, being able to metrics accordingly. Whereas worker safety might be Winston adds that some functions still need to move
demonstrate the value of ESG through metrics is vital. a priority for consumer goods companies buying from beyond seeing cost savings as their defining measure
Yet Procurement Leaders’ Purpose-driven procurement manufacturers in low-cost countries, organisations of success: “The question, culturally, is: how much
report, published earlier in 2023, found that 27% of mainly working with mainly indirect suppliers would are you including sustainability metrics and are your
functions have no sustainability-linked metrics in likely be best served focusing on how they are procurement officers actually incentivised to understand
place at all. supporting supplier diversity, for instance. them, measure them and reward them in your supply
Tracking the numbers is not going to be sufficient chain? It’s not as common as it needs to be.”
on its own. Leaders also need to foster a culture of After finally getting the attention it deserves in

77%
sustainability, to ensure that colleagues understand its the business arena, sustainability is coming up
importance and are incentivised to promote it. against some major headwinds. But the imperative
Machholz suggests that those companies to drive change remains and most leadership teams
successfully leading the charge on ESG are are maintaining the momentum. By positioning
Percentage of procurement executives positioning it front and centre as their USP, and sustainability at the forefront of their strategy and
who said that pressure from the C-suite “going out and attracting the right people, having putting in place the right metrics and incentives,
the right mixture of people from different political or procurement teams can continue to play a vital role,
on ESG performance had increased in educational backgrounds, and really giving them free driving value for both their stakeholders and society
the past three years room to fail and to experiment”. at large.
Source: CPO Compass 2024 Survey

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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN

ACTION POINTS
MAKE THE CASE FOR ESG AS A SET TAILORED METRICS
VALUE DRIVER

From attracting customers to boosting There is no one-size-fits-all when


employee engagement and averting measuring sustainability. Consider the
compliance failures, ESG is fast becoming an context of your supply chain and how
imperative. Identify which of these are most sustainability can add value to your
vital to your company’s strategy and use organisation and track performance
them to make the case for investment. accordingly.

PROMOTE A CULTURE
OF SUSTAINABILITY

Lead by example, set clear expectations


and ensure that those who drive
ESG performance are rewarded and
recognised.

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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN

WHAT IF... ...GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISES


EXCEED 1.5°C BY 2027?
This year’s northern hemisphere summer was the Morocco, 49.5 degrees in Turkey and 45.4 degrees in permanently changed. And it’s going to continue to get
hottest on the record – and not by a small margin. Thailand recorded since the start of the year. worse, on average, until we actually start eliminating
In the three months to August, average global Scientists at the Global Meteorological Organization emissions and getting them to zero.”
temperatures topped 16.8 degrees celsius – 0.66 now estimate it is more likely than not that the world With extreme weather becoming the norm,
degrees above the seasonal average, according to the will experience a full-year of average temperatures businesses need to be braced for disruption that
EU Climate Change Service. 1.5°C above the pre-industrial benchmark by 2027. risks making Covid-19 look like a hiccough.
That was reflected by a number of regional The impact of the Earth’s warming climate is
temperature records being smashed – with record already being felt. In January, California was deluged WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PROCUREMENT
highs of 52.4 degrees in China, 50.4 degrees in by record levels of rain, leading to storms and The impact of extreme weather is already being felt
flooding. Cyclone Freddy, the longest-lasting and most across global supply chains. Agricultural commodities
energetic tropical cyclone on record, killed hundreds in are particularly vulnerable, as soaring temperatures
Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar in March. The and floods lead to widespread crop failures that will
The weather we’re seeing now has Horn of Africa remains in the grip of its worst drought likely drive up prices.
in decades, leaving millions in extreme hunger. Ports, often a vital node in the supply chain, are
permanently changed. And it’s going to And the really scary part is, there is little hope of also at increased risk given their exposure to flooding
continue to get worse on average, until things getting better any time soon. and hurricanes – and that’s without even considering
“This isn’t a model we’re debating anymore, it’s the future impact of rising sea levels.
we actually start eliminating emissions happening right now,” says sustainability strategist “We built our society and infrastructure for a
Andrew Winston, sustainability strategist and author Andrew Winston. “The weather we’re seeing has given climate with a certain range of temperatures,

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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN

wind speeds and all of that, So there’s going to be


continued damage,” Winston says. FIG 6: PROJECTED TEMPERATURE INCREASE, 1950–2100 (°C)
A report from Cornell University’s Global Labor
Institute and Schroders in September found that 5
extreme weather events pose a major threat
to apparel production in Bangladesh, Pakistan, 4
Cambodia and Vietnam, threatening to wipe out
$65bn of fashion exports alone by 2030.
3
The scale of threat underscores the importance of
maintaining, and expanding, the resiliency measures
procurement functions have implemented in the 2
wake of Covid-19.
That includes renewed efforts to map the supply 1
chain to as high a tier as possible, identifying those
suppliers most at risk, qualifying second sources of 0
key inputs and establishing clear contingency plans
should shipments come under threat.
-1
Karsten Machholz, professor of supply chain
1950 2000 2050 2100
management at the Technical University Of Applied
Sciences Würzburg-Schweinfurt, says using
technology to establish a real-time view of disruption Five Scenarios of Fossil Fuel Burning
is likely to prove vital.
Smaller CO2 amounts, then no increase in CO2
“If something happens and then you read it in Highest CO2 amounts
late in the 21st century
the press, and then you start to think: ‘What should
I do?’ and come up with a Plan B, then it’s already Medium to high CO2 amounts No increase in CO2 beginning in 2050
too late,” he says. “Because everybody’s already
jumping on the few supply markets where you Medium CO2 amounts
can get what you need, and then all the prices
will skyrocket.”

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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN

ACTION POINTS
MAP OUT THE RISKS TO THE CONSIDER THE SOCIAL
ORGANISATION’S SUPPLY CHAIN IMPLICATIONS

Identify your suppliers across as many tiers Climate change is no longer just an
as possible and cross-reference these with environmental concern. Agricultural
data concerning future climate risks. workers in your supply chain may be
exposed to extreme heat; others may be
displaced by flooding. Consider how to
protect them when it comes to setting
expectations of suppliers.

DEVELOP CONTINGENCY PLANS KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON


DEVELOPMENTS

Establish protocols for dealing with Use technology to track impacts on the
disruption to those most at-risk and supply chain in real-time and be prepared
qualify extra suppliers to ensure spare to react as threats develop.
capacity is available.

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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN

CASE STUDY: HOW AT&T USES CLIMATE DATA TO PROTECT ITS NETWORK INTEGRITY

Telecoms provider AT&T endured more than $600m of Feeding this information to internal stakeholders chain, procurement teams have an opportunity to
damage from extreme weather including hurricanes allowed them to recommend targeted infrastructure understand where their greatest threats lie and take
and wildfires in 2016 and 2017 alone. While it can take upgrades with mitigating actions including: action before it’s too late.
steps to mitigate these impacts on its locations – Installing generators at locations most vulnerable
such as installing backup power generators to to hurricane impacts.
safeguard against hurricane damage to commercial Moving batteries at towers at risk of flooding off the
power or flood gates to prevent water damage, ground to higher locations on the masts.
targeting these investments where they are most Installing flood gates on the doors of sites at risk
effective is vital. of flooding.
Working with the US Department of Energy’s
Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), AT&T’s Global As well as helping target the upgrading of existing
Environmental Sustainability team sourced the data infrastructure, the data is also used to ensure that new
to power a Climate Change Analysis Tool (CCAT) that facility locations are informed by any climate-related
would allow the company to map these risks and then risks and potential weather disruptions.
target future investment accordingly. By combining insights from Argonne with its own
The CCAT enables AT&T’s engineers to visualise network information, AT&T has been able to determine
the likelihood and projected extent of extreme weather the risk of future extreme weather events to its
events, including flooding, drought, strong winds, high network at a neighbourhood level for up to 30 years in
temperatures and wildfires to its network across the the future.
48 contiguous US states. AT&T has also published all of the data on its
Working with internal stakeholders, the website and is partnering with other organisations
company’s Global Environment Sustainability such as EcoRise and the New York Power Authority to
team can then use this information to identify promote the use of the data.
opportunities to mitigate these threats, as well as The scale of the threat posed by extreme weather
supporting AT&T’s network planners in identifying can be difficult to comprehend. But by applying a
placement of infrastructure. similar approach to that taken by AT&T to the supply

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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN

WHAT IF... 50%


Procurement Leaders asked respondents to
the CPO Compass 2024 survey which aspects of
ESG their procurement functions were addressing.
Conserving natural resources and biodiversity
The proportion of global GDP that is moderately or
came bottom of the list; 45% said they have
...BIODIVERSITY IS THE implemented policies or programmes in this area
highly dependent on nature
Source: World Economic Forum
NEXT BIG THING IN ESG? while one-third revealed they had no plans to
introduce any.
For some functions, the areas where they The opportunities may be less obvious for those
The human toll of climate change grows more can have the most impact are quite apparent. who work mostly with indirect suppliers. But there are
alarming by the day. But the impact of mankind’s Those that buy a lot of agricultural inputs can look still myriad ways to make an impact – from sourcing
environmental destruction on wildlife has arguably to steps to prevent deforestation or the excessive sustainable ingredients for staff canteens to ensuring
been even more severe. use of fertilisers, for instance, while buyers who that real estate contractors respect local habitats
From seabirds choked by oil spills to tigers source chemicals or metals can audit their and selecting energy providers with a track record of
losing their homes to deforestation and rhinos suppliers’ approach to avoiding water pollution. protecting the local environments they operate in.
falling prey to poachers, the world’s wildlife
population has plummeted by 69% since 1970, TABLE 1: FIVE ANIMALS AT RISK OF EXTINCTION
according to the World Wildlife Fund.
ANIMAL LOCATION NOTES
“Changing the temperature of the planet is pretty
reckless but killing off huge swaths of species is Prized by poachers for their skins, which can fetch up to
Amur Leopard Russian Far East
maybe even more reckless, because it’s permanent,” $1,000
says sustainability strategist Andrew Winston. Around 70 left in the world, threatened by habitat loss,
Javan Rhino Java, Indonesia
“We can capture carbon, it’s not going to be disease and rising sea levels
easy or cheap, but we could conceivably get Eastern Lowland Lowland rainforests, Civil unrest, poaching and mining have halved their
the temperature to change over time. Whereas Gorilla Democratic Republic of the Congo population since the 1990’s
changing what we’ve done to ecosystems is
Their habitat has been reduced by more than half in the
going to be really hard.” Bornean Orangutan Borneo
past 20 years
Regulators have taken action, with the EU passing
Yangtze Finless Overfishing and pollution have damaged their food
a landmark nature restoration law, committing to Yangtze River, China
Porpoise supply, leaving less than 2,000 in the wild
restore 20% of its land and sea area by 2030.

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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN

CAN...
Government officials in the country will often “wax democracy can easily get people to pay a higher
eloquently about all the efforts being made around premium for economic activity in, for example,
electrification, the booming electric car industry, the form of higher electricity costs, because
electric trains, transportation and so on,” he says. renewables are clean and coal is not. You can’t sell
“And at one level the Chinese have fully that to an electorate living at or below the poverty
...RAPIDLY DEVELOPING committed to the environment. At the same time line, or to an aspirational middle class.”
ECONOMIES WEAN they continue to build coal-fired power plants.
Pollution is a major problem. They run roughshod
Given advanced economies reached their current
level of industrialisation through the use of fossil
THEMSELVES OFF over environmentalists. Despite promising to be fuels, kickstarting climate change in the process,
aggressive on the environment, their actions all too they have a responsibility to support less developed
FOSSIL FUELS? often fail to meet those promises.” countries in their energy transition, she suggests.
India’s politicians have the added challenge of “There has to be a much more concerted
While some advanced economies have made big having to convince voters to back its plans. Megha global conversation about funding and transfer of
strides in reducing their direct carbon emissions Kumar, deputy director of analysis at Oxford technology, subsidies, renewable manufacturing,
in the past 10 years, the world’s fastest-growing Analytica and an expert on the political economy incentives, all those have to be in place for wealthier
major economies, including the likes of China, India, of India, says that while those in civil society largely and developing countries to be able to play their fair
Indonesia and the Philippines, have for the most support efforts on the environment, “no poor part in climate change mitigation.”
part recorded increases.
This primarily reflects their growth trajectories FIG 7: PER CAPITA CARBON EMISSIONS, 2021 (TONNES)
as their economies become more industrialised
and their populations consume and travel more.
On a per capita basis, emissions in developing
CHINA
economies remain significantly lower than those in 8
HIGH-INCOME EU
advanced economies (see Figure 7, right), but can 6.3
COUNTRIES LOWER-
this remain the case as they grow? 10.1 MIDDLE-INCOME
US
Allen Morrison, a professor at Arizona State COUNTRIES
14.9 UPPER- 1.8
University’s Thunderbird School of Global MIDDLE-
JAPAN
Management and an expert on China’s political 8.6 INCOME
COUNTRIES INDIA LOW INCOME
economy, says recent economic challenges are likely 6.7 1.9 COUNTRIES
to delay further efforts to tackle climate change. 0.3

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ANNUAL STUDY / CPO COMPASS 2024
PARTNER’S PERSPECTIVE

ESG MOVES FROM EXPLORATION TO ACTION

JAGADISH TURIMELLA, COO respondents noted that reducing greenhouse gas that puts strategic plans into tangible action to
and cofounder, GEP emissions, including Scope 3, has become the top successfully measure, act on and report ESG targets.
2023 priority, up from third in 2021. Choosing the right technology platform can be
Climate change is no longer a far-off Scope 3 remains in the spotlight due to the fact daunting given the overwhelming number of startups
threat but a stark reality requiring that as much as 90% of an enterprise’s greenhouse that have mushroomed in the last few years along
immediate attention. Leading gas emissions come from their supply chains. But with the large consulting and ERP providers offering
enterprises are moving from denial tracking those emissions is a huge challenge for many their own versions of tools to measure and report
and delay to action on sustainability initiatives. companies as the required data is often fragmented, emissions. The right platform enables a transparent
Supply chain decarbonisation and responsible unstructured and comes from multiple sources approach to measuring, calculating and reporting ESG
sourcing have taken a front seat with the recent outside of their direct control. metrics. Software tools can efficiently automate data
German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act, the European Progress over perfection is the mantra for many collection, calculations, and create audit-ready reports
Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) companies in the areas of measuring and reporting for specific filings such as CDP, SBTi, CSRD, CBAM
and Corporate Sustainability Reporting Scope 3 emissions. Many carbon accounting or and other compliance authorities.
Directive (CSRD), as well as similar anticipated circularity certification bodies such as SBTi, CDP, GEP GREEN is designed to help enterprises
regulations in California and the rest of the US. C2CPII (Cradle-to-Cradle) require transparency of meet their sustainability goals. Through end-to-
It is unsurprising that nearly 80% of respondents to the data sources, disclosure of methodologies used end applications to measure, react and report, GEP
this year’s CPO Compass survey said that pressure to track emissions and reporting on all material GREEN offers a dynamic approach to sustainability,
from the C-suite to improve ESG performance has categories of emissions, even within Scope 3. enabling organisations to set accurate targets as
increased over the past three years. At GEP, we are However, both certification and regulatory agencies well as efficiently manage and report on their ESG
seeing etop-level focus begin to cascade to the CPOs, are looking for a baseline of reporting even if it is performance. With procurement and supply chain
category managers and buyers. not 100% accurate, with a higher emphasis on an expertise backed by vast amounts of supplier data
improvement plan. and a robust platform, GEP can accelerate clients’
DATA AND TRANSPARENCY sustainability journeys.
As enterprises ramp up their sustainability initiatives, THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY Regulations require enterprises to kick their efforts
they must expand their focus beyond their own four To effectively drive sustainability programmes, it into gear to avoid penalties and drive compliance. The
walls to their supply chains. Reinforcing this trend, is essential to have a robust technology platform window is closing; the time to act is now.

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ABOUT THE RESEARCH

This report is based on interviews with 12 experts


RESPONDENT PROFILE BY ROLE (%) RESPONDENT PROFILE BY INDUSTRY (%)
in a range of fields, supplemented by a survey of
93 senior procurement executives from different
CPO or equivalent (senior-most Business and professional services 8.7
organisations, industries and geographies conducted
procurement executive)
41.3
during August and September 2023, as well as Chemicals 7.6
desktop research.
Head / regional head / other senior
director / VP
35.9 Construction 2.2
Consumer goods and retail 12.0
Other (please specify) 22.8
Energy and utilities 8.7
Financial services 12
RESPONDENT PROFILE BY REGION (%)
Manufacturing 14.1
Americas 24.9
Media and entertainment 1.1
APAC 13.1
Pharmaceuticals and healthcare 8.7
EMEA 63
Primary and extractive industries
(including agriculture)
1.1

Public services, education and


not-for-profit
4.3

Technology and telecoms 8.7


Travel and logistics 3.3
Other (please specify) 7.6

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ANNUAL STUDY / CPO COMPASS 2024
ABOUT THE RESEARCH

ABOUT THE AUTHOR ABOUT OUR PARTNER


JACK TORRANCE
Customer insights manager
Procurement Leaders
GEP helps global enterprises operate more efficiently and effectively, gain
With 10 years of experience writing about business, Jack’s competitive advantage, boost profitability and maximise business and
areas of interest include innovation, sustainability and shareholder value. Fresh thinking, innovative products, unrivalled domain and
supplier diversity. At Procurement Leaders, he has a focus subject expertise, and smart, passionate people — this is how GEP creates
on research and case studies. and delivers unified supply chain solutions of unprecedented scale, power and
effectiveness. With 18 offices and operations centres in Europe, Asia, and the
Americas, Clark, New Jersey-based GEP helps enterprises worldwide realise
their strategic, operational and financial objectives.

FURTHER INFORMATION AND FEEDBACK To learn more about our comprehensive range of strategic and managed
If you have enjoyed this report, would like some more information, or feel it has services, please visit: www.gep.com
not met your expectations, please contact:
[email protected]

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