PL GEP Research Cpo Compass 2024 Marketplace
PL GEP Research Cpo Compass 2024 Marketplace
PL GEP Research Cpo Compass 2024 Marketplace
COMPASS
2024
IN PARTNERSHIP WITH
WWW.PROCUREMENTLEADERS.COM
ANNUAL STUDY / CPO COMPASS 2024
CONTENTS
Introduction 1
What we learned 3
While procurement teams have been forced to threaten to deprive some workers of their jobs –
deal with successive day-to-day crises over the but also have the potential to accelerate reshoring.
past few years, the future they are faced with looks Transitioning to renewables will help the west
increasingly uncertain. wean itself off Russian-controlled gas supplies –
Powerful new technologies promise to transform but leave it reliant on Chinese-made solar panels
not just the procurement itself and the supply and wind turbines.
chain, but the economy as a whole. Geopolitical Preparing for this complex future is an ongoing
tensions loom on the horizon and frightening bouts process and nobody has all the answers. But
of extreme weather threaten communities and with the help of insights from leading subject-
infrastructure around the world. matter experts, as well as a survey of leading
While maintaining a grip on their functions’ procurement executives, the CPO Compass 2024
present priorities, leaders also need to take the provides a starting point from which to think about
time to consider the bigger picture and adjust their the challenges that lie ahead.
course as necessary.
With that in mind, the CPO Compass 2024
looks ahead to the challenges and opportunities
procurement could encounter not just next year, but
over the next five years and beyond.
We have split these challenges into three
thematic areas – the new digital frontier, the global
trade race and the climate countdown – but the
reality is they are inextricably linked.
The threat of Taiwan’s semiconductors being
cut off from the global economy risks depriving Note: Images throughout this report, including the
AI pioneers of the computing power they need cover, have been created using the Generative AI
to continue development. Advances in robotics tool Midjourney
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INTRODUCTION
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INTRODUCTION
WHAT WE LEARNED: THE VERY BEST QUOTES IN THE CPO COMPASS 2024
There will be procurement We would go back 50, 60 years The climate is actually changing
departments that keep in terms of our quality of life if and it’s costing business and
developing and there are others this semiconductor industrial economies money – that’s
that will not develop. Those will capability were to be not debatable. It’s not a
have a tough, tough time eliminated overnight political point, whether you
Detlef Schultz, former CEO of the Vodafone Geopolitical strategist John Sitilides on the threat think there’s more wildfires
Procurement Company, explains why advances in of Taiwan’s chip industry being cut off from the
technology leave procurement at a crossroads / page 8 world’s supply chains / page 21 and extreme weather... it’s
affecting your supply chain and
procurement choices
Sustainability strategist Andrew Winston on why
the commercial imperative behind sustainability
The big challenge for humans is really, if 80% of your job is stronger than ever / page 28
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SECTION 1 –
The new
digital frontier
What will rapid advances in robotics and AI
mean for the way procurement functions
and the nature of the supply chain?
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WHAT IF... ...GENERATIVE AI BECOMES AS FIG 1: GENERATIVE AI MARKET VALUE, 2023–2028 ($BN)
UBIQUITOUS AS SPREADSHEETS? Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
CV, writing wedding toasts and even composing rap jobs will either be changed or fade in necessity.”
lyrics in the style of a pirate. It appears we are at an inflection point with 19.5
It quickly became clear that the underlying generative AI as hosts of major software providers
technology of generative AI tools such as ChatGPT, rush to establish their own competitors to ChatGPT, 102.8
known as a large-language model (LLM), would have which was created by the Microsoft-backed OpenAI. 12.9
game-changing implications for businesses and the The potential applications of generative AI go beyond 71.1
economy at large – and procurement is no exception. producing text-based content, too, with a number
7.5 51.5
With their ability to understand user requests, of tools emerging that apply the same approach to
40
analyse large amounts of complex data, identify creating code, videos, music and images. 3.7
33.4
patterns and then generate a variety of outputs – So, how can procurement take advantage of these
all within seconds – LLMs hold huge potential opportunities, what does it mean for the future of
to transform the way we work and what our work and what role will regulation play in shaping 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
organisations are capable of achieving. our AI-powered future?
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HOW COULD GENERATIVE AI CHANGE entirely. On the other hand, says Kasia Borowska, “We need to make sure that in whichever way
THE WAY WE WORK? managing director of BrainPool, an AI strategy and we can, we continuously increase our human
Myriad technology companies have already begun to services provider, many new ones will be created. intelligence – a higher level of creativity, strategic
develop tailored solutions applying generative AI to “It’s the same as what happened with digitisation – thinking, and things like that will be the things that will
business problems as diverse as drug development, everyone was scared and wondering what’s going to really matter,” says Borowska.
customer service and financial compliance. happen, all the postmen will lose their jobs because of Those who can really harness the potential of
With new solutions coming to market and some email,” she says. generative AI, in combination with their own distinctly
organisations even building their own in-house “And then hundreds of other jobs were created off human skills, have the opportunity to significantly
generative AI tools based on tech such as ChatGPT the back of it, like SEO experts and digital marketing, enhance their productivity and therefore their value to
(which recently launched an enterprise offering with whole industries came up from this evolution.” an organisation. Rather than spending large amounts
enhanced data security and support for integration) the For those office jobs that remain, the ability to work of time on repetitive and tedious tasks, skilled workers
impact on the way we work is set to be substantial. with generative AI tools – to write the right prompt will gain the freedom to focus on where they can
Chris Mullan, SVP of product at AI-powered data to generate the most valuable response – is likely to add value.
extraction technology provider Eigen, says LLMs will prove highly valuable. But, at the same time, those Mullan says: “They disproportionately favour those
allow for the automation of numerous work tasks skills that cannot be automated – at least in the near with some expertise – the more you know, the more
that were previously seen as being protected from future – will pay a premium. you can get out of an LLM.”
replacement due to their complexity. As machines become increasingly smart, there
From writing emails to compiling slide decks, have been inevitable questions about whether they
many of the specific tasks currently done by those could even take the place of senior managers. But
deemed as “knowledge workers” – especially those even if that were technically possible, the governance
in more junior roles – are more about expending time
We need to make sure that in whichever implications this brings up beg the question of
and effort than applying knowledge and are at risk of way we can, we continuously increase whether it would be desirable.
automation, he adds. our human intelligence – a higher level Rafael Ramirez, director of the Oxford Scenarios
“The big challenge for humans is really, if 80% of Programme and professor of practice the University
your job could be done for zero marginal cost, how of creativity, strategic thinking, and of Oxford’s Saïd Business School, asks: “If your next
much value is the 20% you’re bringing?” things like that will be the things that mega deal, or the next bunch of layoffs, or exiting
The implication for employers is multifaceted. The country X or entering country Y was premised on an
consensus among experts appears to be that a large
will really matter AI program, would you, as a as a senior executive,
number of less complex jobs are likely to be automated Kasia Borowska, BrainPool be happy and confident?”
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WHERE WILL PROCUREMENT SEE can respond to user questions about topics such as
THE GREATEST IMPACT? their procurement strategy or generate insights about
Recognition of generative AI’s potential to a particular supply market. There will be procurement departments
revolutionise procurement among leadership teams We asked participants in the CPO Compass 2024
is mixed. While 46% of those who answered the survey to identify the parts of procurement’s remit who keep developing, and they will
CPO Compass 2024 survey said they believed the most ripe for transformation, as well as the areas become the business partner, the
technology would transform the function “to a in which they have already started to implement
facilitator, the orchestrator of the
great extent”, 48% said it would only transform the generative AI (see Figure 1, page 8).
function “somewhat”. In both cases, the top three results were: enterprise, and there are others that
And efforts to integrate generative AI in Market intelligence and research will not develop. Those will have a
procurement’s processes remain nascent; 43% of Administrative tasks and maintaining data
those surveyed said their function has made “very P2P processes tough, tough time
little” use of generative AI while 32% said they weren’t Detlef Schultz, AkiroLabs
using it at all. Functions risk being left behind if they This is hardly surprising, given that much of this
don’t grab this opportunity with both hands. work is straightforward and repetitive,and, in fact,
The potential has not gone unnoticed among already in the process of being automated including
procurement technology providers, with several through the use of bots that pre-date ChatGPT and
new tools coming to market in recent months. For the generative AI buzz. AkiroLabs cofounder Detlef Schultz, the former CEO
example, Altana AI uses generative AI to augment the At the other end of the scale are roles of Vodafone Procurement Company, says generative
value of its Atlas platform, a dynamic map of global that contain a major human element, such AI and advances in data analytics will allow forward-
supply chains informed by billions of data points, as stakeholder management, and training thinking procurement teams to make the most of their
which can be used to trace materials back to their and development. That said, given the broad position “at the crossroads of internal and external
source and identify flashpoints in the supply chain. possibilities offered up by generative AI, it seems information”, acting as a vital provider of insight, and
Generative AI allows users to identify problem vendors unlikely that any element of the function’s activities even foresight.
and products and to create regulatory documents at will be untouched by the technology – which could He adds: “There will be procurement departments
the touch of a button, as well as providing support conceivably used to deliver chatbot-based training, that keep developing and they will become the
through a chatbot. respond to stakeholder queries and generate business partner, the facilitator, the orchestrator of the
Meanwhile, procurement collaboration platform insights about the supply chain to share within enterprise, and there are others that will not develop.
AkiroLabs has created “AkiroGPT”, a tailored LLM that the organisation. Those will have a tough, tough time.”
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55
Market intelligence and research
20
P2P processes 39
12
Sourcing management 27
and negotiation 8
Compliance and 27
risk management
5
15
Training and development
4
1
Stakeholder management
2
Processes that have the most potential to be Processes that have been affected by the
transformed by generative AI function’s use of generative AI services
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ACTION POINTS
START EXPERIMENTING NOW EVALUATE HOW YOUR TALENT
NEEDS WILL EVOLVE
With generative AI seemingly here to Take the time to understand the specific
stay, it’s important that more functions tasks for which your team members are
seize the opportunity on offer. It’s easy responsible and evaluate which of these
to get started with basic applications are likely to be replaced or augmented by
such as using ChatGPT to analyse market generative AI. Consider what training you
intelligence or supplier performance data, will need to offer to support team members
review supplier communications or review in this transition and what new roles are
category strategies. likely to be needed in your future function.
Develop and communicate rules around Generative AI tools are only as useful
how tools should be used. This will enable as the information they are fed. Their
the organisation to protect sensitive data, increased use underscores the importance
dissuade staff from engaging in plagiarism of establishing a well-organised,
and ensure outputs are checked for biases comprehensive and reliable source of
and misinformation. procurement data
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WHAT IF...
to the extinction of humankind, I think we should While most recognise the importance of
have a look at it.” regulating AI tools to prevent conflict or the
The European Union’s AI Act, passed in June, spread of disinformation, the political response to
introduces the world’s first set of comprehensive generative AI’s economic impacts is likely to prove
AI laws – although it came too late to specifically more controversial. For some, this is just the latest
...REGULATORS CLAMP regulate generative AI – and other jurisdictions productivity-enhancing breakthrough in a long
DOWN ON AI? are expected to follow suit in the near future. The
challenge for regulators is treading the tightrope
line dating back to the horse-drawn plough. But
if workplaces transform and workers are laid off
between stifling innovation and unleashing harm. go as rapidly some experts are suggesting, then
With reports of workers already being let go to be Altana AI’s chief science office Peter Swartz expect to see calls for a universal basic income –
replaced by ChatGPT and the likes of Goldman says: “These systems are increasing in capacity so funded by taxing the profits of AI providers – grow.
Sachs warning that as many as 300 million jobs quickly that any rigid policy will inevitably fail and
could be replaced by generative AI, many people fear have loopholes. Rather, we need very tight good-
they could lose their livelihoods. faith cooperation between government and industry
With AI’s sophistication progressing by leaps and to quickly identify and regulate problems through a
bounds, there are fresh worries of a Terminator-style mix of cooperation and legislation.” KEY FEATURES OF THE EU AI ACT
armageddon, with the machines taking over.
While such fears may be overblown, there are The world’s first attempt at a comprehensive
mounting calls for regulation to ensure AI remains legislative framework for the sale and use of
within human control. In March 2023, a group of artificial intelligence.
AI experts published an open letter warning of the
To be honest I am not a big Categorises different applications of AI based
potential for AI-generated misinformation, job losses supporter of regulation - on perceived levels of risk.
and even that “nonhuman minds that might eventually Those deemed as high-risk, such as AI
outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us”, as however, when it comes to the deployed in transport or healthcare, will have to
they called for a global pause on the development of undergo a conformity assessment to ensure
more powerful models. extinction of humankind, I think they function as expected.
“To be honest I am not a big supporter of we should have a look at it Also bans the use of applications which pose
regulation,” says Detlef Schultz, cofounder an “unacceptable risk”, such as cognitive
of AkiroLabs and former CEO of Vodafone Detlef Schultz, co-founder of AkiroLabs and behavioural manipulation, social scoring and
Procurement Company. “However.when it comes former CEO of Vodafone Procurement Company remote facial recognition.
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WHAT IF...
Whereas specialised robots come with the physically feel things. Together with advances in the
cost and complexity of being delicately integrated AI software that powers the robot, these have the
into existing systems and environments, general- potential to significantly expand the range of tasks
purpose humanoids can slot into their new that can be fulfilled by machines.
workplace with relative ease. As with advances in computer-based AI,
...ROBOTS BECOME AS “The entire world’s infrastructure has been put these breakthroughs are likely to necessitate
84%
soon be a common sight on the factory floor. falls, we are likely to reach a point where they
Long the preserve of science-fiction movies, become cheaper to employ than even the lowest-
humanoid robots offer a few distinctive advantages, paid people. That could shift the balance in favour
says James Wells, chief commercial officer of manufacturing products near their consumer
at Sanctuary AI, whose Phoenix robot aims to The projected increase in industrial robot rather than on the other side of the world –
replicate both the physical and mental abilities of installations between 2020 and 2026 offering an opportunity to both cut costs and
human workers. Source: Industrial Federation of Robotics boost supply chain resilience.
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WHAT IF...
Whereas conventional computers perform Chris Mullan, SVP of product at Eigen, says: “It’s
calculations using classical “bits”, representing 1s such a huge shift... I think we’d have to come up
and 0s, quantum computers work with quantum with wholly new ways of thinking about AI to make
bits (or qubits), which are capable of representing 1 use of that mode of computing.”
and 0 at the same time. One area likely to face challenges is
...QUANTUM COMPUTING While the science of this is complicated, the key cybersecurity. Today’s encryption methods rely on
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PARTNER’S PERSPECTIVE
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The global
trade race
With resilience now the watch-word in
procurement, how will evolving geopolitical
relationships and the rise of new powers
affect the shape of supply chains?
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70
60
For Harry Moser, the impetus to bring supply chains of a fierce argument for many years, with most
back to the US is not economic or political, its personal. mainstream economists making the case that freer 50
Moser’s grandfather worked for a major supplier trade boosts prosperity both at home and abroad.
to the Singer sewing machine factory in Elizabeth, But thanks to the disruption wrought by the
New Jersey. His father later ran part of the factory, Covid-19 pandemic, the impact of Russia’s invasion 40
and Moser himself also worked there for a couple of Ukraine and fears of escalating tensions between
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WHAT’S DRIVING TALK OF RESHORING? Sitilides says these actions, combined with
Successive crises – from Covid-19 to the energy anger towards China for its role in the Covid-19
shortage and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – have pandemic, have spurred governments to reevaluate
exposed the many vulnerabilities present in today’s their dependence on the country’s supply chains –
complex international supply chains, placing supply especially in strategically important markets such
resilience among procurement’s top priorities. as pharmaceuticals, energy, communications and
While the international picture has calmed down military hardware.
somewhat compared to the height of the Covid-19 “Western consumers and consumers worldwide
crisis in 2020, several potential threats linger on the [will] continue to enjoy the benefits of relatively
horizon. Perhaps chief among these is the fractious inexpensive iPhones, furniture, T-shirts and whatnot,”
relationship between the west and China. he says. “But those areas of international commerce
The world’s largest exporter, China is a key actor that involve the wellbeing of nation states, I think, are
in many supply chains; dominating the market for going to get a far closer look from most responsible
everything from electronic devices and components governments for years, if not decades to come.” The argument for bringing manufacturing closer to
to plastic products, industrial equipment and rare It would be wrong to see the west’s economic the consumer isn’t just about avoiding risk, though.
earth minerals vital to the energy transition. “decoupling” from China as a one-way street. Its Shorter supply chains also offer reduced logistics
John Sitilides, a geopolitical strategist at Trilogy president Xi Jinping’s Made in China 2025 initiative, costs, greater agility in responding to changing
Advisors, and diplomacy consultant under contract launched in 2015, aims to reduce the country’s consumer demands and lower carbon emissions.
to the US Department of State, says the Chinese reliance on foreign technologies and increase the “Offshoring is much less efficient because
government has become “a far more belligerent, domestic content of manufactured goods, particularly productivity is lower,” says Moser. “You have more
aggressive, and often hostile country, especially to its in key industries such as robotics, aerospace, labour per unit of output. You have more inventory
immediate neighbours in Asia,” since Xi Jinping’s rise renewable energy and biotech. because of long deliveries. You have more pollution.
to power in 2012. The potential for China-related disruption is, of By almost any measure that you want to use,
As well as the government’s much-discussed course, just one threat. Complex global supply chains offshoring is less efficient than doing it locally.”
designs on Taiwan (see What if... China invades could be disrupted by any number of phenomena, from In 2021, Italian fashion house Benetton said it was
Taiwan, page 20), that includes fractious territorial a meltdown of the global financial system to extreme shifting production from markets such as Bangladesh
disputes with a number of its neighbours over island weather (see What if... global temperature rises exceed and China to Serbia, Croatia and the Middle East,
chains off its coast, as China seeks to tighten its 1.5° by 2027, page 30) or, as was the case with Covid-19, citing shorter lead times and lower transport costs,
control on some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. something that’s barely even on CPOs’ radars. for instance.
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THE BARRIERS TO RESHORING as well as promoting the merits of a career That said, rapid developments in automation
While reshoring may offer some compelling upsides, in manufacturing. have the potential to address both of these
the challenges are substantial. “Even if people are economically better off going challenges, as the decreasing cost of manufacturing
Senior procurement professionals who responded down the skilled work route, there’s a kind of cultural a product using a robot in an advanced economy
to Procurement Leaders’ CPO Compass 2024 survey challenge to convincing people that’s what they ought meets the rapidly increasing cost of wages in
cited a variety of challenges inhibiting efforts to to be doing,” he says. developing markets.
derisk supply chains, including difficulty finding and
qualifying new suppliers, logistics issues and, above
all, cost (see Figure 4, right). FIG 4: BARRIERS TO RESHAPING SUPPLY CHAINS (% OF RESPONDENTS)
One of, if not the, biggest driving forces behind
globalisation has been wage disparities between
developed and developing countries; making it
Cost 45
vastly cheaper to manufacture products in areas
such as east and south-east Asia. While those
Difficulty finding new suppliers 16.7
disparities remain, that is going to be a difficult
barrier to overcome – even factoring in the money
Lack of capacity in alternative countries 10
organisations would save as a result of leveraging
shorter shipping routes and experiencing fewer
Trade barriers/regulations in potential supply markets 6.7
disruptions, and especially given the booming levels of
inflation businesses are currently dealing with.
Regulations in consumer markets 6.7
Skills are also a big factor. In the US, half a million
manufacturing job openings remain unfilled, according
Proximity to market 6.7
to the country’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Research
by British industry body Make UK, meanwhile, found
Logistical challenges 6.7
that 36% of vacancies in manufacturing are proving
difficult to hire for.
Resources 1.7
The Reshoring Initiative’s Moser says that for
reshoring to gain momentum, governments are going
to have to invest in the right educational opportunities,
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NOT RESHORING, BUT FRIENDSHORING? “The Chinese have done a good job extending the WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PROCUREMENT
While bringing whole supply chains back to the reach of their ecosystems to neighbouring countries”, With cost savings both procurement’s number one
countries where their consumers are might not be says Morrison. “While the face might be Vietnamese priority and its most important performance metric,
cost-effective for companies at the moment, many and while the person across the table may speak and the economic rationale behind offshoring hard
businesses are looking to other countries – including Vietnamese, the person behind the scenes who is to overcome, it’s too early to call time on the era of
Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines – as “safer” pulling the strings is in China.” globalisation. But, as the threat of deeper geopolitical
alternatives to China. This can often take the form of While it is going to be near-impossible for any one unease lingers, there is a clear appetite to reshape
a so-called “China+1” strategy, with buyers seeking country to supplant China’s export-oriented industrial supply chains.
secondary suppliers of materials currently sourced in ecosystems entirely, one that hopes to make a Of the senior procurement executives who
China, in the hope these vendors can ensure supply particularly big dent is India. responded to Procurement Leaders’ CPO
continuity should their main source be disrupted. “For procurement leaders in tech supply chains, Compass 2024 survey, less than one-third said they
Allen Morrison, a professor at Arizona State India’s going to look rosier and rosier, it’s rolling out were not looking to reshore or diversify their supply
University’s Thunderbird School of Global Teflon-coated red carpets,” says Megha Kumar, chain away from “risky” markets, with the remainder
Management and an expert on China’s political deputy director of analysis at Oxford Analytica and saying they already had initiatives underway or were
economy, says that while this strategy can be quite an expert on the political economy of India. exploring opportunities to do so.
straightforward for simple consumer goods, things “It sees China as a competitor in low-cost There is no single answer to how functions
get much more complicated when it comes to manufacturing and…with China’s mounting problems, should approach this challenge. While a lot of basic
sourcing more sophisticated technology. India wants to position itself as the democratic pro- commodities and goods can be second-sourced with
“China has built these ecosystems that tend to be manufacturing, pro-foreign-capital alternative to China.” relative ease, the supply chains for some materials will
geographically centralised in a different part of the While it has some way to go, the world’s largest be near-impossible to shift in the near-term given cost
countryn and, if you are a business that is embedded country by population is investing heavily in the and/or capability barriers.
in one of these ecosystems, leaving the country or infrastructure and skills required to lure multinational For those that harbour the ambition to build new
diversifying away from China means committing to companies’ manufacturing supply chains to its shores. ecosystems to enable the manufacture of more
another ecosystem that likely doesn’t exist.” That’s already beginning to bear fruit. For complex products – as Apple is in India – there is no
Replicating such an ecosystem in another country instance giant Apple has already begun to shift the time like the present.
in the region is going to be very difficult, he adds. manufacture of iPhones to India, in partnership with “China’s supply chains took over 30 years to build,”
Furthermore, even when companies do manage to its major supplier Foxconn. Analysts at JPMorgan Kumar tells Procurement Leaders. “Supply chain
qualify new suppliers, they may not be as substantial a predict that 25% of iPhones could be made in the diversification is being done. It is expensive and slow,
firewall against China as hoped. country by 2025. but it will need to be done.”
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ACTION POINTS
ANALYSE YOUR INPUTS DON’T LEAVE IT TOO LATE
Consider how the business can Your new supplier may be based in a
support suppliers in its home market country with a lower risk exposure, but
or other locations you’d like to source where are their suppliers based? What other
from to develop the skills they need to business relationships do key suppliers
expand their manufacturing capacity have that could threaten to interrupt
and capabilities. continuity of supply?
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WHAT IF...
businesses around the world. The 2020 shortage
left half-finished cars waiting on production lines,
companies struggling to find enough laptops for
homeworkers and delayed the launch of Apple’s
What we do know is that
iPhone 12. the destructive output of an
...CHINA INVADES TAIWAN? But John Sitilides, a geopolitical strategist at
Trilogy Advisors and diplomacy consultant under invasion would be cataclysmic
For an island around half the size of Scotland, contract to the US Department of State, suggests
Taiwan plays an outsized role in the global it is difficult to comprehend just how cataclysmic
for Taiwan and probably destroy
economy. In fact, just one of its businesses, it would be for the global economy to lose access its advanced semiconductor
the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to TSMC’s products.
Company (TSMC), produces 70% of the world’s “We would go back 50, 60 years in terms of industrial capability, which
silicon chips and 90% of the most advanced ones. our quality of life if this semiconductor industrial
We’ve already seen what a shortage of these capability were to be eliminated overnight,” he says. would probably sink the
chips, which can be found anywhere from an Unfortunately that’s not a totally implausible global economy into a near
Airbus A380 to an electric toothbrush, can do to prospect as the Chinese Community Party (CCP)
continues to engage in sabre-rattling over Taiwan’s term depression
future. CIA director William Burns has warned
70%
John Sitilides, Trilogy Advisors
that Xi Jinping, China’s president, has ordered its
military to prepare for an invasion as soon as 2027
and military drills in the area have been intensifying.
Proportion of the world’s silicon China’s desire to control Taiwan is historic
and cultural, but also strategic. In an ideal world, Democratic, western-facing Taiwan has little
chips produced by TSMC
from the CCP’s perspective, Taiwan would appetite for such an arrangement, hence why
90%
peacefully agree to unification – perhaps with military action is on the table. However, a military
a similar degree of autonomy to that afforded invasion would likely be bad news for everybody,
Hong Kong and Macau. The newly expanded including China.
China would enjoy control, not just over the Sitilides says: “What we do know is that the
Percentage of advanced chips world’s semiconductors, but also one of its most destructive output of an invasion would be
the company manufactures important shipping lanes. cataclysmic for Taiwan and probably destroy its
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CAN...
“You need the population to be healthy,” she says. Gender imbalances will also need to be
“You need them to be educated and to have skills addressed for India to reach its full potential, says
that are useful in the economy. Third, they need Sitilides, with just one-quarter of Indian women in
jobs where they can actually realise their potential, paid work, compared to 74% of men as stubborn
innovate and increase their household income. It is attitudes prove hard to shift.
...INDIA BECOME THE NEXT those missing ingredients that are problematic.” Allen Morrison, a professor at Arizona State
ECONOMIC SUPERPOWER? India’s primary and secondary schools need
a major overhaul and massive investment, she
University’s Thunderbird School of Global
Management, says a lack of infrastructure is also
says, “from resources to playgrounds, to books to holding India back. “Although it is getting better, in
Few countries stand to hold a more significant role teacher training to an updated syllabus”. terms of the number of paved roads and ports, rail,
in determining the direction of the future global Around one-quarter of India’s adults lack basic internet access, power generation, and so on”.
economy than India. literacy skills, compared to fewer than 5% in China. If it can address these challenges, there is a
“India has been a spotlight country for years, if not Although India’s highly praised university system sense that India could to some extent emulate
decades. But it may finally be reaching that threshold can demonstrate some massive success stories, China’s remarkable rise over the past few years to
moment where it becomes a player – not only on the such as Sundar Pichai becoming CEO of Google- global superpower status. But, if it does so, India
Asian continent, but on the global stage,” says John owner Alphabet, “you need thousands more of such will be following its own distinct path.
Sitilides, geopolitical strategist at Trilogy Advisors. elite institutions, in order to be able to keep up with “You’re not going to have the kind of dependence
One of the fastest-growing economies in the G20, the demand of the labour force and the economy,” on mass industrial manufacturing that really
India is home to more than one-sixth of the world’s says Kumar. brought China out of poverty over the last 30
population. And its citizens are young, with an average years,” says Sitilides, pointing to India’s success in
age of 28.7 – around a decade younger than those in INDIA IN NUMBERS the digital, financial services and communications
both the US and China (see Figure 5, page 23). sectors. “The fact that India does not have to
POPULATION 1.4 billion
That so-called demographic dividend holds huge replicate the Chinese model gives it the opportunity
potential for India, both as an agile and enterprising MEDIAN AGE 28.7 to create a brand new model for rapid growth.”
workforce to build its economy and as an increasingly GDP (nominal) $3.7tn
For those in the rest of the world, India offers the
wealthy consumer base to drive domestic demand. hope of acting as a counterweight to China’s growing
But Megha Kumar, deputy director of analysis GDP PER CAPITA (nominal) $2,600 influence on the world economy. But, as seen with
at Oxford Analytica and an expert on the political GDP GROWTH RATE (2022–23) 5.9% its votes at the UN, for instance, abstaining on a
economy of India, says making the most of that resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
ADULT LITERACY RATE 77.7%
potential will be a challenge. India ultimately has its own interests to protect.
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SECTION 2: THE GLOBAL TRADE RACE
“For the most part, India is looking to be more The reign of current prime minister, Narendra at the institutional level,” says Kumar. “It’s not just
integrated into the global economy around terms Modi, who came to power in 2014, has proven suppressing criticism by putting some journalists
that are set in the west, not in the east,” says Kumar. controversial on a number of fronts. Most notably, he in jail and starting baseless legal cases against civil
“Russia is one of the largest defense suppliers to has faced criticism for his government’s treatment society opponents, but also by changing laws to
India, and an increasingly big oil supplier. They are of political opponents, journalists and members of increase state surveillance powers and by stacking
not going to compromise that relationship, Ukraine India’s 200 million-strong Muslim minority. the judiciary. That takes a generation to fix.”
or not.” “What is ironic, really, is that India seeks global Regardless of its political situation, India’s
Sitilides adds: “India is going to be a partner, but leadership at forums such as the UN and the G20 by demographic profile and economic trajectory are
never a junior ally of the US, or any other power, for highlighting its democratic credentials and, yet, that likely to make it one of, if not the most, important
that matter.” is precisely what the current government is undoing, actors in the global economy this century.
FIG 5: POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE AND GENDER – INDIA, CHINA AND US, 2023 (%)
INDIA CHINA US
4% 3% 2% 1% 0 1% 4% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 1% 0 1% 2% 5 3% 4 4% 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 5 3 4 4 3 5 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
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PARTNER’S PERSPECTIVE
Krish Vengat N., VP consulting, GEP supplier relationship management systems and work supplier sustainability, reducing carbon emissions,
closely with suppliers to mitigate risks. and ensuring responsible sourcing. Exploring
Most leaders have integrated circular economy initiatives – which involve reusing,
the lessons from Covid-19 into 3. Institute risk management and continuity planning: refurbishing or recycling products and materials –
their plans to withstand future Proactively identifying and assessing supply chain risks, can contribute to a reduced environmental footprint.
disruptions: 96% of CPO Compass encompassing geopolitical, environmental, economic
respondents said they feel well- or and operational factors, is critical. Leveraging real-time 6. Build supply chains with agility and flexibility
somewhat prepared for another global pandemic. data and advanced analytics tools can revolutionise risk in mind: Establish adaptive procurement strategies
While CPOs are adept at handling turbulence, the monitoring. Once risks have been identified, develop that accommodate shifts in demand, supply
imperative to future-proof supply chains remains. comprehensive continuity plans to ensure uninterrupted disruptions and market changes. Agility empowers
Ensuring resilience, continuity and cost management business operations amid challenging circumstances. supply chains to withstand unforeseen challenges.
is an ongoing necessity in a volatile world. Here is an
action plan to help navigate this evolving landscape: 4. Diversify the supplier base: Overreliance on a 7. Invest in talent: A proficient and knowledgeable
single supplier or geographic region exposes the team is paramount to execution. Invest in talent
1. Embrace digital transformation: This is the bedrock supply chain to vulnerabilities. CPOs should explore development, provide continuous training and
of future-proofing supply chains. Automation, artificial alternative suppliers and regions to establish a cultivate a culture of innovation within the function.
intelligence and data analytics streamline processes, diversified and robust supplier base to minimise
enhance visibility and support decision-making. disruption risks and enhance flexibility. CPOs have a significant role in ensuring their
Investing in these tools is paramount to delivering organisations’ resilience and prosperity. Digital
efficiency, reducing errors and adapting to change. 5. Reinforce sustainability and ethical practices: transformation, collaboration, risk mitigation and
Leaders are incorporating ESG best practices agility enable CPOs to proactively navigate challenges
2. Foster supplier collaboration: Robust supplier to drive performance, mitigate risk and ensure while sustainability, ethical practices and ongoing
relationships are pivotal to building resilient compliance. Sustainability is more than a buzzword; improvement further fortify future-proofed supply
supply chains. Collaboration fosters improved it’s a core element of supply chain future-proofing. chains. The journey is multifaceted but, with the right
communication, flexibility and a shared commitment Integrate ethical and sustainable practices into strategies and a forward-thinking approach, CPOs can
to success. Encourage this collaboration, implement procurement strategies – this involves assessing point the way to a more secure and prosperous future.
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SECTION 3:
The climate
countdown Can blooming efforts to make
progress on ESG withstand a political
backlash and what does extreme
weather mean for supply chains?
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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN
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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN
HOW WILL SUSTAINABILITY EFFORTS Andrew Winston, a sustainability strategist and Support for initiatives to tackle climate change and
FARE IN A WORLD OF TURBULENCE? author, along with former Unilever boss Paul Polma, improve society among millennials and generation Z
Karsten Machholz, professor of supply chain of the bestselling book Net Positive, says the clear also means that long-term pressure is only likely to
management at the Technical University Of Applied and growing imperative to tackle climate change is grow as these people begin to make up a greater
Sciences Würzburg-Schweinfurt, says those in keeping businesses focused on their aims. proportion of the workforce and consumer base.
commercial roles can be tempted to postpone “The climate is actually changing and it’s Political pressure has led to some businesses to
sustainability initiatives as they contend with more costing business and economies money – that’s take a less overt approach to ESG, especially on social
immediate threats. not debatable. It’s not a political point, whether issues, Winston adds. “But I haven’t really seen it change
“A big challenge is the capex, you need to set up you think there’s more wildfires and extreme how much they’re doing behind the scenes. “They’re
things that do not have an immediate payback,” weather, and it’s affecting your supply chain and still cutting emissions, buying renewables, working on
he says. “As most of the people are appointed for procurement choices.” diversity, and so on – because it’s good business.”
two, three, four or five years, they are pretty much
shareholder-driven. They are more likely to fulfill their
deliverables in terms of increasing revenue, increasing
growth, increasing shareholder value or dividends, FIG 5: GLOBAL AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE, 1880–2020 (°C)
rather than having a longer-term perspective.”
ºC DIFFERENCE FROM THE 1901 – 2000 AVERAGE
0.9
Key to countering this short-termism will be
regulation, he says, and while some law-makers 0.6
are pushing back against ESG initiatives, many are
pressing ahead wirh new laws. 0.3
India’s top 1,000 listed companies will be forced to file 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
ESG reports.
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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PROCUREMENT Winston says it is important to link metrics with long-
With many environmental and social issues arising term and tangible goals, such as cutting emissions or
within the supply chain, procurement teams help to protecting the water supply, adding: “The metric itself Are your procurement officers actually
drive corporate sustainability strategies and this role is isn’t that useful if it’s not fully tied to the larger picture.”
only likely to expand. For common metrics such as carbon emissions,
incentivised to understand sustainability
More than three-quarters (77%) of procurement many have already adopted internationally recognised metrics, measure them and reward them
executives who responded to the CPO Compass 2024 standards, such as the Carbon Disclosure Project. in your supply chain? It’s not as common
survey said that pressure from the C-suite on ESG Others, such as social impact, biodiversity or human
performance had increased in the past three years, rights, are much harder to standardise. as it needs to be
even as companies faced the impact of Covid-19, In these cases, functions should consider what Andrew Winston, sustainability strategist and author
energy shortages and soaring inflation. measures are most relevant to their organisation’s
With greater scrutiny and, in some cases, environment and objectives, and develop their own
scepticism of ESG mounting, being able to metrics accordingly. Whereas worker safety might be Winston adds that some functions still need to move
demonstrate the value of ESG through metrics is vital. a priority for consumer goods companies buying from beyond seeing cost savings as their defining measure
Yet Procurement Leaders’ Purpose-driven procurement manufacturers in low-cost countries, organisations of success: “The question, culturally, is: how much
report, published earlier in 2023, found that 27% of mainly working with mainly indirect suppliers would are you including sustainability metrics and are your
functions have no sustainability-linked metrics in likely be best served focusing on how they are procurement officers actually incentivised to understand
place at all. supporting supplier diversity, for instance. them, measure them and reward them in your supply
Tracking the numbers is not going to be sufficient chain? It’s not as common as it needs to be.”
on its own. Leaders also need to foster a culture of After finally getting the attention it deserves in
77%
sustainability, to ensure that colleagues understand its the business arena, sustainability is coming up
importance and are incentivised to promote it. against some major headwinds. But the imperative
Machholz suggests that those companies to drive change remains and most leadership teams
successfully leading the charge on ESG are are maintaining the momentum. By positioning
Percentage of procurement executives positioning it front and centre as their USP, and sustainability at the forefront of their strategy and
who said that pressure from the C-suite “going out and attracting the right people, having putting in place the right metrics and incentives,
the right mixture of people from different political or procurement teams can continue to play a vital role,
on ESG performance had increased in educational backgrounds, and really giving them free driving value for both their stakeholders and society
the past three years room to fail and to experiment”. at large.
Source: CPO Compass 2024 Survey
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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN
ACTION POINTS
MAKE THE CASE FOR ESG AS A SET TAILORED METRICS
VALUE DRIVER
PROMOTE A CULTURE
OF SUSTAINABILITY
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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN
ACTION POINTS
MAP OUT THE RISKS TO THE CONSIDER THE SOCIAL
ORGANISATION’S SUPPLY CHAIN IMPLICATIONS
Identify your suppliers across as many tiers Climate change is no longer just an
as possible and cross-reference these with environmental concern. Agricultural
data concerning future climate risks. workers in your supply chain may be
exposed to extreme heat; others may be
displaced by flooding. Consider how to
protect them when it comes to setting
expectations of suppliers.
Establish protocols for dealing with Use technology to track impacts on the
disruption to those most at-risk and supply chain in real-time and be prepared
qualify extra suppliers to ensure spare to react as threats develop.
capacity is available.
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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN
CASE STUDY: HOW AT&T USES CLIMATE DATA TO PROTECT ITS NETWORK INTEGRITY
Telecoms provider AT&T endured more than $600m of Feeding this information to internal stakeholders chain, procurement teams have an opportunity to
damage from extreme weather including hurricanes allowed them to recommend targeted infrastructure understand where their greatest threats lie and take
and wildfires in 2016 and 2017 alone. While it can take upgrades with mitigating actions including: action before it’s too late.
steps to mitigate these impacts on its locations – Installing generators at locations most vulnerable
such as installing backup power generators to to hurricane impacts.
safeguard against hurricane damage to commercial Moving batteries at towers at risk of flooding off the
power or flood gates to prevent water damage, ground to higher locations on the masts.
targeting these investments where they are most Installing flood gates on the doors of sites at risk
effective is vital. of flooding.
Working with the US Department of Energy’s
Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), AT&T’s Global As well as helping target the upgrading of existing
Environmental Sustainability team sourced the data infrastructure, the data is also used to ensure that new
to power a Climate Change Analysis Tool (CCAT) that facility locations are informed by any climate-related
would allow the company to map these risks and then risks and potential weather disruptions.
target future investment accordingly. By combining insights from Argonne with its own
The CCAT enables AT&T’s engineers to visualise network information, AT&T has been able to determine
the likelihood and projected extent of extreme weather the risk of future extreme weather events to its
events, including flooding, drought, strong winds, high network at a neighbourhood level for up to 30 years in
temperatures and wildfires to its network across the the future.
48 contiguous US states. AT&T has also published all of the data on its
Working with internal stakeholders, the website and is partnering with other organisations
company’s Global Environment Sustainability such as EcoRise and the New York Power Authority to
team can then use this information to identify promote the use of the data.
opportunities to mitigate these threats, as well as The scale of the threat posed by extreme weather
supporting AT&T’s network planners in identifying can be difficult to comprehend. But by applying a
placement of infrastructure. similar approach to that taken by AT&T to the supply
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SECTION 3: THE CLIMATE COUNTDOWN
CAN...
Government officials in the country will often “wax democracy can easily get people to pay a higher
eloquently about all the efforts being made around premium for economic activity in, for example,
electrification, the booming electric car industry, the form of higher electricity costs, because
electric trains, transportation and so on,” he says. renewables are clean and coal is not. You can’t sell
“And at one level the Chinese have fully that to an electorate living at or below the poverty
...RAPIDLY DEVELOPING committed to the environment. At the same time line, or to an aspirational middle class.”
ECONOMIES WEAN they continue to build coal-fired power plants.
Pollution is a major problem. They run roughshod
Given advanced economies reached their current
level of industrialisation through the use of fossil
THEMSELVES OFF over environmentalists. Despite promising to be fuels, kickstarting climate change in the process,
aggressive on the environment, their actions all too they have a responsibility to support less developed
FOSSIL FUELS? often fail to meet those promises.” countries in their energy transition, she suggests.
India’s politicians have the added challenge of “There has to be a much more concerted
While some advanced economies have made big having to convince voters to back its plans. Megha global conversation about funding and transfer of
strides in reducing their direct carbon emissions Kumar, deputy director of analysis at Oxford technology, subsidies, renewable manufacturing,
in the past 10 years, the world’s fastest-growing Analytica and an expert on the political economy incentives, all those have to be in place for wealthier
major economies, including the likes of China, India, of India, says that while those in civil society largely and developing countries to be able to play their fair
Indonesia and the Philippines, have for the most support efforts on the environment, “no poor part in climate change mitigation.”
part recorded increases.
This primarily reflects their growth trajectories FIG 7: PER CAPITA CARBON EMISSIONS, 2021 (TONNES)
as their economies become more industrialised
and their populations consume and travel more.
On a per capita basis, emissions in developing
CHINA
economies remain significantly lower than those in 8
HIGH-INCOME EU
advanced economies (see Figure 7, right), but can 6.3
COUNTRIES LOWER-
this remain the case as they grow? 10.1 MIDDLE-INCOME
US
Allen Morrison, a professor at Arizona State COUNTRIES
14.9 UPPER- 1.8
University’s Thunderbird School of Global MIDDLE-
JAPAN
Management and an expert on China’s political 8.6 INCOME
COUNTRIES INDIA LOW INCOME
economy, says recent economic challenges are likely 6.7 1.9 COUNTRIES
to delay further efforts to tackle climate change. 0.3
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ANNUAL STUDY / CPO COMPASS 2024
PARTNER’S PERSPECTIVE
JAGADISH TURIMELLA, COO respondents noted that reducing greenhouse gas that puts strategic plans into tangible action to
and cofounder, GEP emissions, including Scope 3, has become the top successfully measure, act on and report ESG targets.
2023 priority, up from third in 2021. Choosing the right technology platform can be
Climate change is no longer a far-off Scope 3 remains in the spotlight due to the fact daunting given the overwhelming number of startups
threat but a stark reality requiring that as much as 90% of an enterprise’s greenhouse that have mushroomed in the last few years along
immediate attention. Leading gas emissions come from their supply chains. But with the large consulting and ERP providers offering
enterprises are moving from denial tracking those emissions is a huge challenge for many their own versions of tools to measure and report
and delay to action on sustainability initiatives. companies as the required data is often fragmented, emissions. The right platform enables a transparent
Supply chain decarbonisation and responsible unstructured and comes from multiple sources approach to measuring, calculating and reporting ESG
sourcing have taken a front seat with the recent outside of their direct control. metrics. Software tools can efficiently automate data
German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act, the European Progress over perfection is the mantra for many collection, calculations, and create audit-ready reports
Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) companies in the areas of measuring and reporting for specific filings such as CDP, SBTi, CSRD, CBAM
and Corporate Sustainability Reporting Scope 3 emissions. Many carbon accounting or and other compliance authorities.
Directive (CSRD), as well as similar anticipated circularity certification bodies such as SBTi, CDP, GEP GREEN is designed to help enterprises
regulations in California and the rest of the US. C2CPII (Cradle-to-Cradle) require transparency of meet their sustainability goals. Through end-to-
It is unsurprising that nearly 80% of respondents to the data sources, disclosure of methodologies used end applications to measure, react and report, GEP
this year’s CPO Compass survey said that pressure to track emissions and reporting on all material GREEN offers a dynamic approach to sustainability,
from the C-suite to improve ESG performance has categories of emissions, even within Scope 3. enabling organisations to set accurate targets as
increased over the past three years. At GEP, we are However, both certification and regulatory agencies well as efficiently manage and report on their ESG
seeing etop-level focus begin to cascade to the CPOs, are looking for a baseline of reporting even if it is performance. With procurement and supply chain
category managers and buyers. not 100% accurate, with a higher emphasis on an expertise backed by vast amounts of supplier data
improvement plan. and a robust platform, GEP can accelerate clients’
DATA AND TRANSPARENCY sustainability journeys.
As enterprises ramp up their sustainability initiatives, THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY Regulations require enterprises to kick their efforts
they must expand their focus beyond their own four To effectively drive sustainability programmes, it into gear to avoid penalties and drive compliance. The
walls to their supply chains. Reinforcing this trend, is essential to have a robust technology platform window is closing; the time to act is now.
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ANNUAL STUDY / CPO COMPASS 2024
ABOUT THE RESEARCH
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ANNUAL STUDY / CPO COMPASS 2024
ABOUT THE RESEARCH
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