The Rise of The Originate-to-Distribute Model
The Rise of The Originate-to-Distribute Model
The Rise of The Originate-to-Distribute Model
Santos
Vitaly M. Bord is a former associate economist and João A. C. Santos The authors thank Nicola Cetorelli, Stavros Peristiani, an anonymous reviewer,
a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. and participants at a Federal Reserve Bank of New York seminar for useful
comments. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily
Correspondence: [email protected]
reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal
Reserve System.
Sources: Shared National Credit (SNC) database, produced jointly by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency; DealScan database, produced by Thomson Reuters Loan Pricing Corporation (LPC).
3. From Originate-to-Hold institution is classified as a bank may vary over time. For
to Originate-to-Distribute example, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are classified as
banks only from January 1, 2009, when they became BHCs. For
In traditional banking, banks originate credits and hold them the period preceding this date, they are not counted as banks
on their balance sheet until their maturity. Over time, however, since they were operating as investment banks.
banks began to replace the originate-to-hold model with the In 1988, the first year of the sample period, lead banks
originate-to-distribute model, whereby they originate a credit retained in aggregate a stake of 17.6 percent of the credits they
and sell or securitize a portion of it at the time of origination or originated in that year, including term loans and credit lines
later. In this section, we investigate how the adoption of the (Chart 2).14 Beginning in 1990, when they retained in aggregate
originate-to-distribute model reduced the exposure of banks 22.2 percent, lead banks started to decrease their share of the
to the credits they originated over the past two decades. credits they originated, reaching a low of 10.5 percent in 1999.
During the 2000s, the aggregate shares varied with the business
cycle but generally remained steady at around 13 percent.
The market share of the credits that lead banks retain at
3.1 Distribution at the Time of Credit origination has clearly fallen, but the representation of this
Origination decline in Chart 2 is skewed by the large number of credit lines
in our sample. As we can see from Chart 3, while banks have
To investigate the effect of the originate-to-distribute model increasingly replaced the originate-to-hold model with the
on the exposure of banks to the credits they originate, we begin originate-to-distribute model over the past two decades, this
by looking at the lead banks’ market share of the credits they substitution has been far more pronounced in the origination
originate, at the time of the credit origination. of term loans than of credit lines. To be sure, this difference was
For our purposes, “banks” are all institutions that are not immediately apparent: In 1988, lead banks retained in
regulated and that perform the traditional bank roles of aggregate 17.6 percent of the credit lines and 21 percent of the
maturity and credit transformation. Thus, the banks discussed
14
throughout our article refer to all commercial banks, bank Here, and throughout the rest of the article, we use the terms market share
holding companies (BHCs), thrifts and thrift holding and aggregate share interchangeably. By lead banks’ market or aggregate share,
we mean the share of all credits that the lead banks, taken together, retain.
companies, credit unions, and foreign banking organizations, It is computed as the sum of all the lead banks’ retained credit amounts
including their domestic branches. Note that whether an divided by the sum of all new credits they originated that year.
Chart 3
Lead Banks’ Market Share of Credits at Origination, by Credit Type
0.20 0.20
0.15 0.15
0.10 0.10
0.05 0.05
0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Shared National Credit database, produced jointly by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Chart 5
Lead Banks’ Market Share of Credits at Origination and Three Years Later
0.20 0.20
Year 0
0.15 0.15
Year 3 Year 0
0.10 0.10
Year 3
0.05 0.05
0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Shared National Credit database, produced jointly by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Chart 6
Banks’ Retained Credits at Origination: Lead Banks versus Non-Lead Banks
0.8 0.8
Nonbanks
0.6 Syndicate-participant banks 0.6
Lead banks
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Shared National Credit database, produced jointly by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Chart 7
Syndicate-Participant Banks’ Market Share of Credits at Origination and Three Years Later
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
Year 3
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Shared National Credit database, produced jointly by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
0.1 0.2
0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Shared National Credit database, produced jointly by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
three years, of the $17 billion of such loans originated in 1988, panel) of the main nonbank investors in these markets:
banks (both lead and syndicate-participant banks) kept on insurance companies, investment management firms, finance
their balance sheets 90.2 percent in 1988 but only 86.9 percent companies, collateralized loan obligation managers, private
three years later. Similarly, of the $17 billion in term loans equity firms, brokers and investment banks, pension funds,
issued in 2007, banks kept on their balance sheets 42.1 percent and foreign nonbank organizations.17
at origination but only 32.8 percent three years later. Looking at the information on credit lines, we see that the
Thus, for credit lines, syndicate-participant banks tended to market share of nonbank investors in credit lines is very small,
offset the actions of the lead banks at origination, and they less than 10 percent in each year. This finding was expected,
tended to hold the credit lines to maturity (or at least for three given our previous evidence that banks continue to play a
years). For term loans, in contrast, syndicate-participant banks, dominant role in the provision of liquidity to corporations
like lead banks, have been decreasing the market share they through credit lines. The nonbank entities that have the highest
retain at origination and over the years after origination.16 market share are finance companies, pension plans, investment
managers, and “other.”18 Finance companies first appear in
our credit-line data in 1992, when they held a market share
of 0.2 percent. They reached their peak market share in 2002
4.2 The Role of Nonbank Financial with 3.2 percent of all credit lines originated.
Institutions
17
Given the decline in the portion of term loans retained in the The different categories are identified in a variety of ways: by keyword;
by information from the National Information Center run by the Federal
banking sector, the next question to ask is, Who are the Reserve System, which identifies banks, bank holding companies, foreign
investors that have been increasing their presence in this banking organizations, finance companies, insurance companies, and so on;
market? To address this question, we report in Chart 8 the by matching to the Moody’s Structured Finance Database, which allows us
to identify CLOs; and by matching to Capital IQ to identify investment
market shares at the time of credit origination in the credit- management firms and private equity firms. Investment management firms
line market (left panel) and the term-loan market (right are identified as hedge funds, mutual funds, or asset managers. Note that
institutions may shift across categories over time. For example, for most of
16
Interestingly, the average shares for syndicate-participant banks did not our sample, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are identified as investment
change much over the life of the credit, for both credit lines and term loans. banks. However, after they officially converted their status to BHCs in the
With the exception of loans originated during the recessions of 1990 and 2001 first quarter of 2009, they are classified as BHCs. Finally, note that for the
(for which the average participant bank share decreased over the loans’ remaining analysis, we exclude nonbank entities that are part of banking
lifetime), on average, syndicate-participant banks retained the same share entities—for example, finance companies that are part of BHCs. (Including
at origination as three years later. them does not substantially change our analysis.)
Chart 10
4.3 Nonbank Investors’ Shares Role of Investment Managers
after Loan Origination
Market share
0.30
We documented earlier that both lead banks and syndicate-
Year 3
participant banks continue to reduce the share of their term 0.25
loans in the years following origination. In Charts 9 through
11, we examine the market shares of the top three nonbank 0.20
investors in the syndicated loan market at the time of the credit
origination and three years later. Because these nonbank 0.15
investors invest mainly in term loans, we limit our analysis
0.10
to the term-loan market.
Year 0
Finance companies kept their share of the term-loan market
0.05
more or less constant over the past decade. In contrast, CLOs
and investment managers have been increasing their market 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
18
The majority of the institutions in the “other” category were not clearly
identified by our sources as belonging to one of the categories discussed above. Source: Shared National Credit database, produced jointly by the Federal
Because much of the identification was done through name matching, Deposit Insurance Corporation, Board of Governors of the Federal
institutions for which the quality of the match was in question were also placed Reserve System, and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
in the “other” category. Finally, the category also contains a very small number
of Article XII New York investment companies, data processing servicers,
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The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
or the Federal Reserve System. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York provides no warranty, express or implied, as to the
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