BTG Pactual Rumo
BTG Pactual Rumo
BTG Pactual Rumo
Infrastructure
Company Note
Rumo 11 September 2023
Yield trends (mainly in Mato Grosso): Investors want to better understand Stock Performance - Rumo (R$)
pricing dynamics to transport grain out of Mato Grosso. Subpar logistics and
booming grain volumes represent a unique pricing power opportunity for cargo
players. Given yield performance this year and the volume outlook for the next
grain crop, we believe the market expects high-teen growth this year and low
double digits to mid-teens next year. Any visibility here will be welcomed by the
market, mainly given the competitiveness of competing corridors.
Other topics: We see other interesting points to discuss with Rumo: (a)
regulatory updates, particularly on recent discussions regarding government
plans to debate investments in the concession renewals approved in recent
years; (b) new projects, such as plans on Malha Sul and Oeste; and (c) updates
on LT grain production estimates, mainly in Mato Grosso, including Rumo´s
expectations for Brazilian grain exports.
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Company Note - 11 September 2023 Banco BTG Pactual S.A.
Rumo
Income Statement (R$mn) 12/2020 12/2021 12/2022E 12/2023E 12/2024E
Revenue 6,955 7,440 10,324 11,372 13,057
Operating expenses (ex depn) (3,195) (4,091) (5,327) (6,068) (6,842)
EBITDA (BTG Pactual) 3,760 3,349 4,997 5,304 6,215
Depreciation (1,822) (1,831) (2,093) (1,673) (1,786)
Operating income (EBIT, BTG Pactual) 1,937 1,518 2,904 3,631 4,429
Other income & associates 0 0 0 0 0
Net Interest (1,474) (1,360) (2,152) (2,215) (1,942)
Abnormal items (pre-tax) 10 13 34 11 13
Profit before tax 473 171 785 1,427 2,500
Tax (170) (4) (249) (372) (850)
Profit after tax 303 167 536 1,055 1,650
Abnormal items (post-tax) 0 0 0 0 0
Minorities / pref dividends 0 0 1 4 4
Net Income (local GAAP) 303 167 537 1,060 1,654
Adjusted Net Income 293 154 503 1,048 1,641
Tax rate (%) 36 2 32 26 34
Per Share 12/2020 12/2021 12/2022E 12/2023E 12/2024E
EPS (local GAAP) 0.16 0.09 0.29 0.57 0.89
EPS (BTG Pactual) 0.16 0.08 0.27 0.57 0.89
Net DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BVPS 8.25 8.10 8.30 8.59 9.03
Cash Flow (R$mn) 12/2020 12/2021 12/2022E 12/2023E 12/2024E
Net Income 293 154 503 1,048 1,641
Depreciation 1,822 1,831 2,093 1,673 1,786
Net change in working capital (128) 102 84 (220) 32
Other (operating) 0 0 0 0 0
Net cash from operations 1,997 2,099 2,714 2,513 3,472
Cash from investing activities (2,979) (3,453) (2,792) (3,283) (3,642)
Cash from financing activities (8,523) (8,822) - - -
Bal sheet chge in cash & equivalents 5,373 1,699 (3,647) (564) (499)
Balance Sheet (R$mn) 12/2020 12/2021 12/2022E 12/2023E 12/2024E
Cash and equivalents 9,175 10,874 7,227 6,663 6,164
Other current assets 2,180 1,507 2,087 1,995 2,218
Total current assets 11,355 12,381 9,314 8,658 8,382
Net tangible fixed assets 13,646 15,975 16,942 18,635 20,580
Net intangible fixed assets 7,251 7,132 6,964 6,881 6,792
Investments / other assets 13,656 12,687 12,177 12,177 12,177
Total assets 45,908 48,175 45,398 46,351 47,932
Trade payables & other ST liabilities 7,314 8,189 9,997 10,481 11,066
Short term debt 0 0 0 0 0
Total current liabilities 7,314 8,189 9,997 10,481 11,066
Long term debt 22,825 24,286 19,265 19,208 19,381
Other long term liabilities 473 681 738 738 738
Total liabilities 30,612 33,156 29,999 30,427 31,185
Equity & minority interests 15,296 15,019 15,398 15,924 16,747
Total liabilities & equities 45,908 48,175 45,398 46,351 47,932
Company Profile
The company resulting from the merger between Rumo Financial ratios 12/2020 12/2021 12/2022E 12/2023E 12/2024E
and ALL, completed in 2016, is currently Latin America's EBITDA margin 54.1% 45.0% 48.4% 46.6% 47.6%
Operating margin 27.9% 20.4% 28.1% 31.9% 33.9%
largest independent rail-based logistics operator, offering
Net margin 4.2% 2.1% 4.9% 9.2% 12.6%
a complete range of logistics services with domestic and
RoE 2.5% 1.0% 3.3% 6.7% 10.0%
international intermodal door-to-door transportation RoIC 10.3% 7.3% 14.5% 18.1% 20.8%
operations, local pick-up and delivery, port terminal and EBITDA / net interest 2.6x 2.5x 2.3x 2.4x 3.2x
warehousing services, including inventory and distribution- Net debt / EBITDA 3.6x 4.0x 2.4x 2.4x 2.1x
centers management. The core service area extends over Total debt / EBITDA 6.1x 7.3x 3.9x 3.6x 3.1x
Mato Grosso and São Paulo states and the southernmost Net debt / (net debt + equity) 47.2% 47.2% 43.9% 44.1% 44.1%
states of Brazil. Source: Company reports and BTG Pactual estimates. Valuations: based on the last
share price of that year(E) based on share price as of 11-set-2023
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Company Note - 11 September 2023 Banco BTG Pactual S.A.
Disclosures
Required Disclosure
This report has been prepared by Banco BTG Pactual S.A.
The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
BTG Pactual Rating Definition Coverage *1 IB Services *2
Buy Expected total return 10% above the company’s sector average. 64% 52%
Neutral Expected total return between +10% and -10% the company’s sector average. 35% 44%
Sell Expected total return 10% below the company’s sector average. 1% 67%
Analyst Certificate
Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this investment research report, in whole or in part, certifies that:
(i) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers, and such recommendations were elaborated independently, including
in relation to Banco BTG Pactual S.A. and/or its affiliates, as the case may be;
(ii) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to any specific recommendations or views contained herein or linked to the price of any of
the securities discussed herein.
Research analysts contributing to this report who are employed by a non-US Broker dealer are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA and therefore are not
subject to the restrictions contained in the FINRA rules on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst
account.
Part of the analyst compensation comes from the profits of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. as a whole and/or its affiliates and, consequently, revenues arisen from transactions held by
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. and/or its affiliates.
Where applicable, the analyst responsible for this report and certified pursuant to Brazilian regulations will be identified in bold on the first page of this report and will be the first
name on the signature list.
Company Disclosures
7. Within the past 12 months, neither Banco BTG Pactual S.A., nor its affiliates or subsidiaries, has received compensation for investment banking services from this
company/entity.
8. Neither Banco BTG Pactual S.A, nor its affiliates or subsidiaries, expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services and/or products and
services other than investment services from this company/entity within the next three months.
9. This company/entity is not, or within the past 12 months has not been, a client of Banco BTG Pactual S.A., and investment banking services are not being, or have been,
provided.
10. Banco BTG Pactual S.A. has not acted as manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities of this company/entity, its affiliates nor subsidiaries within the
past 12 months.
11. Banco BTG Pactual S.A. is not acting as manager/co-manager, underwriter, placement or sales agent in regard to an offering of securities of this company/entity, one of its
affiliates nor subsidiaries.
12. Directors or employees of Banco BTG Pactual S.A., its affiliates or subsidiaries are not directors of this company.
13. Directors or employees of Banco BTG Pactual S.A., its affiliates or subsidiaries do not take part on the board of directors of this company.
14. As of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this report, neither Banco BTG Pactual S.A. nor its affiliates or subsidiaries beneficially own 1% or
more of any class of common equity securities.
15. Neither Banco BTG Pactual S.A., nor its affiliates or subsidiaries, including the funds, portfolios and investment clubs in securities managed by them, beneficially own directly
or indirectly 5% or more of a class of the subject company common equity.
16. Investment strategists have not contributed in the preparation of this company’s section. Investment strategists should not be considered as research analysts and are not
registered or qualified as such in their local market.
17. Neither Banco BTG Pactual S.A., its affiliates nor subsidiaries, are market makers in the securities of this company.
Rumo RAIL3.SA Buy R$22.08/US$4.43 2023-09-11
Global Disclaimer
18. This report has been prepared by Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (""BTG Pactual S.A.""), a Brazilian regulated bank. BTG Pactual S.A. is the responsible for the distribution of this
report in Brazil. BTG Pactual US Capital LLC (“BTG Pactual US”), a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of the Financial
Industry Regulatory Authority and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation is distributing this report in the United States. BTG Pactual US is an affiliate of BTG Pactual S.A.
BTG Pactual US assumes responsibility for this research for purposes of U.S. law. Any U.S. person receiving this report and wishing to effect any transaction in a security
discussed in this report should do so with BTG Pactual US at 212-293-4600, 601 Lexington Ave. 57th Floor, New York, NY 10022.
This report is being distributed in the United Kingdom and elsewhere in the European Economic Area (“EEA”) by BTG Pactual (UK) Limited (“BTG Pactual UK”), which is
authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom. BTG Pactual UK has not: (i) produced this report, (ii) substantially altered its contents, (iii)
changed the direction of the recommendation, or (iv) disseminated this report prior to its issue by BTG Pactual US. BTG Pactual UK does not distribute summaries of research
produced by BTG Pactual US.
BTG Pactual Chile S.A. Corredores de Bolsa (“BTG Pactual Chile”), formerly known as Celfin Capital S.A. Corredores de Bolsa, is a Chilean broker dealer registered with
Comisión para el Mercado Financiero (CMF) in Chile and responsible for the distribution of this report in Chile and BTG Pactual Perú S.A. Sociedad Agente de Bolsa (“BTG
Pactual Peru”), formerly known as Celfin Capital S.A. Sociedad Agente e Bolsa, registered with Superintendencia de Mercado de Valores (SMV) de Peru is responsible for the
distribution of this report in Peru. BTG Pactual Chile and BTG Pactual Peru acquisition by BTG Pactual S.A. was approved by the Brazilian Central Bank on November 14th,
2012.
BTG Pactual S.A. Comisionista de Bolsa (“BTG Pactual Colombia”) formerly known as Bolsa y Renta S.A. Comisionista de Bolsa, is a Colombian broker dealer register with the
Superintendencia Financeira de Colombia and is responsible for the distribution of this report in Colombia. BTG Pactual Colombia acquisition by BTG Pactual S.A. was approved
by Brazilian Central Bank on December 21st, 2012.
BTG Pactual Argentina is a broker dealer (Agente de Liquidación y Compensación y Agente de Negociación Integral ) organized and regulated by Argentinean law, registered
with the Exchange Commission of Argentina (Comisión Nacional de Valores) under license Nro. 720 and responsible for the distribution of this report in Argentina. Additionally,
the Brazilian Central Bank approved the indirect controlling participation of Banco BTG Pactual S.A. in BTG Pactual Argentina on September 1st, 2017.
References herein to BTG Pactual include BTG Pactual S.A., BTG Pactual US Capital LLC, BTG Pactual UK, BTG Pactual Chile and BTG Pactual Peru and BTG Pactual
Colombia and BTG Pactual Argentina as applicable. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. This report is not
directed at you if BTG Pactual is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before
reading it that BTG Pactual is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations. Nothing in this report constitutes a
representation that any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a
personal recommendation. It is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a solicitation, offer, invitation or
inducement to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Prices in this report are believed to be reliable as of the date on which this report was
issued and are derived from one or more of the following: (i) sources as expressly specified alongside the relevant data; (ii) the quoted price on the main regulated market for the
security in question; (iii) other public sources believed to be reliable; or (iv) BTG Pactual's proprietary data or data available to BTG Pactual. All other information herein is
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Company Note - 11 September 2023 Banco BTG Pactual S.A.
believed to be reliable as of the date on which this report was issued and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, either
express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, except with respect to information concerning Banco
BTG Pactual S.A., its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. In
all cases, investors should conduct their own investigation and analysis of such information before taking or omitting to take any action in relation to securities or markets that are
analyzed in this report. BTG Pactual does not undertake that investors will obtain profits, nor will it share with investors any investment profits nor accept any liability for any
investment losses. Investments involve risks and investors should exercise prudence in making their investment decisions. BTG Pactual accepts no fiduciary duties to recipients
of this report and in communicating this report is not acting in a fiduciary capacity. The report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own
judgment. Opinions, estimates, and projections expressed herein constitute the current judgment of the analyst responsible for the substance of this report as of the date on
which the report was issued and are therefore subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas or groups of BTG
Pactual as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. Because the personal views of analysts may differ from one another, Banco BTG Pactual S.A., its subsidiaries and
affiliates may have issued or may issue reports that are inconsistent with, and/or reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein. Any such opinions,
estimates, and projections must not be construed as a representation that the matters referred to therein will occur. Prices and availability of financial instruments are indicative
only and subject to change without notice. Research will initiate, update and cease coverage solely at the discretion of BTG Pactual Investment Bank Research Management.
The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. The analyst(s) responsible for the preparation
of this report may interact with trading desk personnel, sales personnel and other constituencies for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information.
BTG Pactual is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein, except when terminating coverage of the companies discussed in the report. BTG
Pactual relies on information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within BTG Pactual, into other areas, units, groups or affiliates of BTG
Pactual. The compensation of the analyst who prepared this report is determined by research management and senior management (not including investment banking). Analyst
compensation is not based on investment banking revenues, however, compensation may relate to the revenues of BTG Pactual Investment Bank as a whole, of which
investment banking, sales and trading are a part. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Options,
derivative products and futures are not suitable for all investors, and trading in these instruments is considered risky. Mortgage and asset-backed securities may involve a high
degree of risk and may be highly volatile in response to fluctuations in interest rates and other market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investor’s currency, a change in rates of exchange may adversely affect the value or price of or the income
derived from any security or related instrument mentioned in this report, and the reader of this report assumes any currency risk. This report does not take into account the
investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Investors should obtain independent financial advice based on their own particular
circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the information contained herein. For investment advice, trade execution or other enquiries, clients should
contact their local sales representative. Neither BTG Pactual nor any of its affiliates, nor any of their respective directors, employees or agents, accepts any liability for any loss or
damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report. Notwithstanding any other statement in this report, BTG Pactual UK does not seek to exclude or restrict any duty or
liability that it may have to a client under the “regulatory system” in the UK (as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority). Any prices stated in this report
are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations for individual securities or other instruments. There is no representation that any transaction can or could have
been effected at those prices and any prices do not necessarily reflect BTG Pactual internal books and records or theoretical model-based valuations and may be based on
certain assumptions. Different assumptions, by BTG Pactual S.A., BTG Pactual US, BTG Pactual UK, BTG Pactual Chile and BTG Pactual Peru and BTG Pactual Colombia and
BTG Pactual Argentina or any other source, may yield substantially different results. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person, in whole or in part,
for any purpose, without the prior written consent of BTG Pactual and BTG Pactual accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. Additional
information relating to the financial instruments discussed in this report is available upon request. BTG Pactual and its affiliates have in place arrangements to manage conflicts
of interest that may arise between them and their respective clients and among their different clients. BTG Pactual and its affiliates are involved in a full range of financial and
related services including banking, investment banking and the provision of investment services. As such, any of BTG Pactual or its affiliates may have a material interest or a
conflict of interest in any services provided to clients by BTG Pactual or such affiliate. Business areas within BTG Pactual and among its affiliates operate independently of each
other and restrict access by the particular individual(s) responsible for handling client affairs to certain areas of information where this is necessary in order to manage conflicts of
interest or material interests. Any of BTG Pactual and its affiliates may: (a) have disclosed this report to companies that are analyzed herein and subsequently amended this
report prior to publication; (b) give investment advice or provide other services to another person about or concerning any securities that are discussed in this report, which
advice may not necessarily be consistent with or similar to the information in this report; (c) trade (or have traded) for its own account (or for or on behalf of clients), have either a
long or short position in the securities that are discussed in this report (and may buy or sell such securities), with the securities that are discussed in this report; and/or (d) buy
and sell units in a collective investment scheme where it is the trustee or operator (or an adviser) to the scheme, which units may reference securities that are discussed in this
report.
United Kingdom and EEA: Where this report is disseminated in the United Kingdom or elsewhere in the EEA by BTG Pactual UK, this report is issued by BTG Pactual UK only
to, and is directed by BTG Pactual UK at, those who are the intended recipients of this report. This report has been classified as investment research and should not be
considered a form of advertisement or financial promotion under the provisions of FSMA 2000 (Sect. 21(8)).This communication may constitute an investment recommendation
under the Market Abuse Regulation 2016 (“MAR”) and, as required by MAR, the investment recommendations of BTG Pactual personnel over the past 12 months can be found
by clicking on https://www.btgpactual.com/research/. Please also consult our website for all relevant disclosures of conflicts of interests relating to instruments covered by this
report. While all reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the information contained is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, no representation is made as to
its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. Past performances offer no guarantee as to future performances. All opinions expressed in the present
document reflect the current context and which is subject to change without notice.
Dubai:This research report does not constitute or form part of any offer to issue or sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase, any securities or investment
products in the UAE (including the Dubai International Financial Centre) and accordingly should not be construed as such. Furthermore, this information is being made available
on the basis that the recipient acknowledges and understands that the entities and securities to which it may relate have not been approved, licensed by or registered with the
UAE Central Bank, Emirates Securities and Commodities Authority or the Dubai Financial Services Authority or any other relevant licensing authority or governmental agency in
the UAE. The content of this report has not been approved by or filed with the UAE Central Bank or Dubai Financial Services Authority.
United Arab Emirates Residents:This research report, and the information contained herein, does not constitute, and is not intended to constitute, a public offer of securities in the
United Arab Emirates and accordingly should not be construed as such. The securities are only being offered to a limited number of sophisticated investors in the UAE who (a)
are willing and able to conduct an independent investigation of the risks involved in an investment in such securities, and (b) upon their specific request. The securities have not
been approved by or licensed or registered with the UAE Central Bank or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in the UAE. This research report is for
the use of the named addressee only and should not be given or shown to any other person (other than employees, agents or consultants in connection with the addressee's
consideration thereof). No transaction will be concluded in the UAE and any enquiries regarding the securities should be made with BTG Pactual CTVM S.A. at +55 11
3383-2638, Avenida Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 3477, 14th floor, São Paulo, SP, Brazil, 04538-133.
Statement of Risk
Rumo. [BRRAIL] - RUMO retains the rights to operate rail concession and current leases may be terminated prior to their expiration, and RUMO may not get adequate
compensation for the value of the assets or loss of profits. Additionally, downturn in certain cyclical market sectors in which RUMO’s customers operate could have an adverse
effect on the company’s business.
Valuation Methodology
Rumo. [BRRAIL] - Our 12-month forward target price is DCF-driven.
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