Thayer US-Vietnam Relations Post Mortem - 5

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:
ABN # 65 648 097 123

US-Vietnam Relations: Post
Mortem – 5
September 13, 2023
We request your assessment of the outcomes of U.S. President Joe Biden's official visit
to Vietnam.
Vietnam and the United States have officially elevated their bilateral relationship to
the highest level a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
We request your assessment of the following issues:
Q1. How do you assess the results of President Biden's visit in the key areas of
diplomacy, economics, national defense and security, environmental health, and
human rights?
ANSWER: The joint leaders’ statement on the Vietnam-United States Comprehensive
Strategic Partnership (CSP) reflected the structure of the 2013 Comprehensive
Partnership that included nine areas of cooperation. The CSP expanded and deepened
cooperation in these areas and added a new area of cooperation.
The title of the CSP was expanded by including Peace, Cooperation and Sustainable
Development. This was a clear signal that the CSP had a wide scope of cooperative
activities that were compatible with United Nations goals.
Political and diplomatic relations were listed first in both partnerships. This section
was significant in acknowledging that both parties made ”remarkable strides in
increasing mutual understanding [and] building mutual trust” and respected “each
other’s political system.”
Cooperation in trade and economic ties in the Comprehensive Partnership was
expanded to include investment cooperation under the CSP. Significantly, President
Biden and Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong reaffirmed that “economic, trade, and
investment cooperation and innovation-driven inclusive economic growth” were “the
core foundations and sources of momentum in the bilateral relationship.”
The CSP section on defence and security cooperation included three clusters: (1)
support for Vietnam’s participation in military medicine, UN peacekeeping
operations, maritime law enforcement and maritime security capacity; (2) law
enforcement cooperation to address non-traditional security issues such as
transnational crimes, piracy, money laundering, human trafficking, illegal trafficking in
narcotics and precursor chemicals, cyber and hi-tech crime; (3) and significantly
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cooperation in defence industry and defence trade “to assist Vietnam develop its self-
reliant defence capabilities.”
Cooperation on environment and health issues in the Comprehensive Partnership was
expanded and refined in the CSP to include climate, energy, environment, and health.
This section outlined cooperation in four areas: (1) environmental and climate change
issues affecting the Mekong and Red River deltas; (2) energy transition, green growth,
and renewable energy infrastructure so Vietnam could achieve its 2050 net zero
greenhouse emissions target; (3) the establishment of a Vietnam National Centre for
Disease Control with a wide remit; and (4) the expansion of Vietnam’s pharmaceutical
sector so it could play an active role in regional and international medical supply
chains.
The section on human rights was listed as the ninth of ten priorities in the CSP. It was
also the shortest section. This section focused on the importance of annual bilateral
dialogues on human rights and labour “to strengthen mutual understanding and
narrow differences.”
The human rights section avoided direct mention of political and civil rights and
religious freedom, focusing instead on vulnerable groups in society “regardless of their
gender, race, religion, or sexual orientation including persons with disabilities…”
Q2. Were the outcomes of President Biden's visit in line with your expectations and
predictions?
ANSWER: Initially I expected bilateral relations would be raised to a strategic
partnership. I was also surprised by the swiftness of the decision to raise bilateral
relations to the highest level.
It was unclear to me who President Biden’s Vietnamese interlocutor would be. The
U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership, for example, was adopted by presidents
Barack Obama and Truong Tan Sang. The Australia-Vietnam Strategic Partnership was
adopted by their respective prime ministers in 2018.
I did not anticipate such a detailed joint leaders’ statement or that the CSP would have
a subtitle. I forecast that the details would appear in a multiyear Plan of Action to be
drawn up by ministers of both governments at a later date.
However, I was correct that the CSP would be built on and expand the Comprehensive
Partnership. I correctly identified trade, investment, science, technology, innovation
and education and training as key themes.
I also correctly forecast that cooperation between national defence industries would
be included in the CSP but would not signal Vietnam’s alignment with the United
States against China.
Q3. What does this development convey about Vietnam's current geopolitical
standing and its international relations strategy?
ANSWER: The elevation of U.S.-Vietnam relations to a CSP is part of a broader initiative
by Vietnam to readjust its framework of “cooperation and struggle” to present day
realities in order to achieve practical results.
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Last year Vietnam elevated relations with the Republic of Korea to a CSP. This year
Vietnam signalled that relations with Australia would be raised to a similar level. The
decision by Vietnam and the U.S. to move swiftly has taken the lime light away from
Australia. It seems likely that Vietnam will also raise relations with Japan, Singapore
and Indonesia to a CSP in the not too distant future.
The U.S.-Vietnam CSP signals that Vietnam is an independent actor that will grow
more economically powerful and politically and diplomatically influential with the
passage of time. Vietnam will become a regional hub for innovation in semiconductor
and Electric Vehicle production as a result of U.S. investment and the transfer of
emerging technology and managerial experience.
Vietnam will serve as a model of how to cooperate with a major power to achieve
sustainable development. As a result Vietnam will play a more significant role in
ASEAN and ASEAN-related multilateral institutions.
Q4. In your view, what opportunities and challenges lie ahead for the United States
and Vietnam?
ANSWER: The opportunities are manifold because of the breadth, depth and scope of
the CSP. U.S. investment in Vietnam’s electronics sector, including semiconductors
and Electric Vehicles, green energy transition, and education and training will be a
powerful boost to Vietnam’s development. This will be enhanced by the transfer of
technology and collaboration to develop newly emerging technologies.
One of the major challenges for Vietnam will be to train a sufficient number of
software engineers and other service staff to support the rapid growth of the
electronics sector. According to Vu Tu Thanh, head US-ASEAN Business Council Office
in Hanoi, "The number of available hardware engineers is way below what is needed
to support multi-billion-dollar investments." Thanh noted that Vietnam has only 5,000
to 6,000 trained hardware engineers for the computer chip sector, against an
expected demand of 20,000 in five years and 50,000 in a decade.
A second challenge, faced by both Vietnam and the U.S., is how to mobilise the private
sector to play a major role as investors and joint venture partners with each other.
A major challenge for the United States will be to make good on President Biden’s
commitment at a time of rising domestic political polarization as American national
elections approach in November 2024. Whether President Biden is re-elected for a
second term or the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) wins is an open
question.
Vietnam faces challenges in managing its relations with Russia and China if either
perceives the U.S.-Vietnam CSP as damaging their interests. Alternately, Vietnam
faces the challenge of not provoking the U.S. over its relations with China and Russia.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “US-Vietnam Relations: Post Mortem – 5,”

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 13, 2023. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer.. To remove yourself from the mailing list
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “US-Vietnam Relations: Post Mortem – 5,”

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