Thayer Does Vietnam Desperately Want A Meeting With President Biden

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Does Vietnam Desperately Want
a Meeting with President Biden?
July 30, 2023
Reuters just reported: FREEPORT, Maine, July 28 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden
said on Friday Vietnam's leader wants to meet him for talks at the September G20
summit in New Delhi to discuss elevating U.S.-Vietnam relations.
"I got a call from the head of Vietnam, desperately wants to meet with me when I go
to the G20. He wants to elevate us to a major partner, along with Russia and China,"
Biden told dozens of donors to his 2024 re -election campaign at an event in Freeport,
Maine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-vietnam-leader-wants-meet-him-g20-
elevate-ties-2023-07-28/
Biden says Vietnam leader wants to meet him

G20 to elevate ties
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Friday Vietnam
leader wants to meet him for talks at t
September G20 summit in New Delhi to discu
elevating U.S.-Vietnam relations.
www.reuters.com
We request your assessment of three issues:

Q1. President Biden made the above remarks in the context of campaigning. Do you
think this information is important enough to expect good news about the U.S.-
Vietnam relationship in the near future?
ANSWER: It is best to be cautious in interpreting President Biden’s comments that “the
head of Vietnam, desperately wants to meet with me.” That is a colloquial American
expression that Vietnam’s Prime Minister took the initiative and requested a meeting
on the sideline.
It is also best to be cautious about President Biden’s comments that Vietnam’s Prime
Minister “wants to elevate us to a major partner, along with Russia and China." This
is not strictly accurate and President Biden likely misspoke. Vietnam and the United
States are discussing raising bilateral relations from a comprehensive to a strategic
2
partnership. China, Russia, India and South Korea are in a higher category known as a
comprehensive strategic partnership.
It is positive news that Prime Minister Chinh has requested a meeting with President
Biden on the sidelines of the G20 summit in India. This represents a follow up to
President Biden’s earlier telephone conversation with party General Secretary Nguyen
Phu Trong in which both agreed to exchange visits. If bilateral relations are to be raised
to the next level a decision has to be made when and where it will take place. The
APEC summit in the United States and ASEAN’s end of year summits in Indonesia both
provide opportunities. President Biden could visit Hanoi while visiting Indonesia.
Q2. July 25th, 2023 was the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the Vietnamese-
American Comprehensive Partnership, but the two countries did not do any significant
thing to celebrate it. What do you think about the prospect of upgrading the US-
Vietnam relationship this year?
ANSWER: In March, President Biden and General Secretary Trong agreed to elevate
bilateral relations and to assign responsible officials to follow up in their telephone
conversation. Since then Secretary Blinken and Treasury Secretary Yellen visited Hanoi
and Le Hoai Trung, the head of the Vietnam Communist Party External Relations
Commission, visited Washington.
The Biden-Trong telephone conversation led to speculation that bilateral relations
would be raised to a strategic partnership by the end of the year. No dates have been
publicly announced about the exchange of visits by Biden and Trong. Vietnamese
sources in private raise the question of a long journey to the U.S. on Trong’s health.
Up until the Biden-Trong telephone conversation, Vietnam has been reticent about
raising bilateral relations when the issue was raised by Defense Secretary Austin and
Vice President Harris in their trips to Hanoi in 2021. Vietnam has clearly signalled it is
willing to take this step. It is “now (this year) or never” because of America’s election
cycle and primaries.
Q3. There is an opinion that the importance of the US-Vietnam relationship has been
hyped so much. Regardless of how good the relationship between the US and Vietnam
is, whether the relationship will be upgraded or not, the position of Vietnam in the
Sino-Vietnamese relationship cannot be changed. There is also another opinion that
the Vietnam-US relationship has its own intrinsic value. Vietnam should not place
Vietnam-US relations in the context of Sino-Vietnamese relations and the US-China
relations. What do you think about these opinions?
ANSWER: Both of these assessments are myopic because they impose a binary
framework on Vietnam’s policy of “diversifying and multilateralizing” its external
relations. These take the form of a network of comprehensive, strategic and
comprehensive strategic partnerships. Vietnam’s key partners include Russia, India,
Japan as well as the United States. Vietnam seeks to maintain its strategic autonomy
by a dynamic equilibrium and avoid binary zero sum outcomes.
Vietnam also manages it relations with China and the United States under the
framework of “cooperation and struggle.” Vietnam will cooperate with both China and
the United States where it benefits Vietnam. Vietnam will struggle against China and
3
the United States when they harm Vietnam’s interests, such a maritime disputes in
the South China Sea or calls for human rights, respectively.
Vietnam obviously values both relationships. China is Vietnam biggest trade partner
and the United States is Vietnam’s largest export market. But, since 1998 when
Vietnam published its first Defence White Paper, Vietnam has pursued a policy of
“three no’s” raised to “four no’s” in its most recent Defence White Paper published in
2019: “Viet Nam consistently advocates neither joining any military alliances, siding
with one country against another, giving any other countries permission to set up
military bases or use its territory to carry out military activities against other countries
nor using force or threatening to use force in international relations.”
Vietnam’s 2019 White Paper clearly spelled out how Vietnam would react if any
major power tried to pressure it to take sides. The White Paper declared:
Vietnam also promotes defence cooperation with countries to improve its capabilities
to protect the country and address common security challenges. Depending on
circumstances and specific conditions, Viet Nam will consider developing necessary,
appropriate defence and military relations with other countries on the basis of
respecting each other’s independence, sovereignty, territorial unity and integrity as
well as fundamental principles or international law, cooperation for mutual benefits
and common interests of the region and international community.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Does Vietnam Desperately Want a Meeting

with President Biden?,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, July 30, 2023. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Biden says Vietnam leader wants to meet him

We request your assessment of three issues:

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Does Vietnam Desperately Want a Meeting

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