SHURA 2022 06 Financing The Energy Transition in Turkey Within The Contexti
SHURA 2022 06 Financing The Energy Transition in Turkey Within The Contexti
SHURA 2022 06 Financing The Energy Transition in Turkey Within The Contexti
Acknowledgements
We appreciate valuable insights, evaluation and comments provided by individuals and institutions interviewed.
Members of the expert working group, formed to guide the study, Abdullah Buğrahan Karaveli (EVÇED), Alper
Terciyanlı (Endoks/EDİDER), Ceren Fırat (Ministry of Trade), Çağrı Güven (Garanti BBVA), Dilara Ay Erişen (TKYB),
Emrah Kınav (Ford Otosan), Emre Oğuzöncül (EBRD), Erdem Sezer (TKYB), Ferdi Gökçek (Enerjisa/ETD), Halil Öz
(Zorlu Enerji), Jülide Oğuz (KfW), Kemal Gani Bayraktar (Consultant), Mustafa Daldal (Enerjisa), Naci Can (GE),
Neslihan Gülerer (Ministry of Trade), Özlem Yakut (TurSEFF) and Volkan Orhan Yiğit (TUPRAŞ) contributed with
their guidance and insights. Berk Mesutoğlu (BDDK), Claudio Baccianti (Agora Energiewende), Dr. Değer Saygın
(Sabancı University), Dr. Eser Pirgan Matur (United Nations Ankara Resident Coordination Office), Fatih Özkadı
(Arçelik), Halil Demirdağ (Smart Solar Technologies), Hülya Kurt (Smart Solar Technologies Independent Board
Member), İlker Koç (BDDK), Mathis Rogner (Agora Energiewende), Ömer Ünal (Arçelik) and Vincenzo Franza (Agora
Energiewende) reviewed draft documents and provided suggestions. From the SHURA Energy Transition Center,
Selahattin Hakman (Chair of Steering Committee) Alkım Bağ Güllü (Director) and Hasan Aksoy (Head of Research)
reviewed the report and provided feedback. We thank all contributors for their valuable views and feedback.
This report is available for download from www.shura.org.tr. For further information or to provide feedback, please
contact the SHURA team at [email protected]
Design
Tasarımhane Tanıtım Ltd. Şti.
ISBN 978-625-7329-82-8
Disclaimer
This report and the assumptions made within the scope of the study have been drafted based on different scenarios
and market conditions as of the end of 2020. Since these assumptions, scenarios and the market conditions are
subject to change, it is not warranted that the forecasts in this report will be the same as the actual figures. The
institutions and the persons who have contributed to the preparation of this report can not be held responsible
for any commercial gains or losses that may arise from the divergence between the forecasts in the report and the
actual values.
Executive Summary:
Financing the Energy Transition
in Turkey within the Context of the
Green New Deal
Key Messages
• Covering energy and digital transition in line with the goal of net zero carbon
emission, the Green New Deal is steadily becoming the dominant development
paradigm for the second quarter of the 21st Century at the global scale. The holistic
policy combination, while eliciting an investment effort that is unparalleled in the
last fifty years, will result in the growth and diversification of both the need and the
sources of financing for the energy transition.
• The financing Turkey will need for its energy transition by the year 2030 amounts
to just 0.5% of the global resources that are expected to be available in the
same period. A move towards low-carbon and high value-added production,
alongside the transition in energy, can bring in the resources Turkey needs. The
implementation of this strategy requires, in turn, an effective green finance strategy
consistent with the targets set in order to attract medium-to-long term financing at
affordable cost levels.
3 Executive Summary: Financing the Energy Transition in Turkey within the Context of the Green New Deal
4 Executive Summary: Financing the Energy Transition in Turkey within the Context of the Green New Deal
Executive Summary
Introduction
This study entitled “Financing Energy Transition in Turkey in the context of Green New
Deal” was planned by the SHURA Energy Transition Center in the first half of 2021. The
goal was to review and update the “Financing the Energy Transition in Turkey” study
prepared in 2019 in the light of the funding options expected to be expanded through
the Green New Deal paradigm and develop policy recommendations focusing on the
expected pathways for the financing of the energy transition within this framework.
A number of steps taken by policy makers as the study proceeded, such as the
ratification of the Paris Agreement, the declaration of the net zero target for the year
2053, the commencement of efforts to establish a net-zero strategy, and the convening
of a Climate Council not only made the study even more relevant, but also expanded
its scope.
Integration based on green investments at the international level, including but not
limited to the European Green Deal, is gaining importance. Turkey’s level of integration
with the international system, as well as its position in value chains, necessitates
a robust step for green investment, beginning with investments into the energy
transition to advance its existing economic structure further.
Following the financial crisis of 2008, the world economy came to face a structural
predicament, which can be expressed as “productivity decline”. From a perspective
covering past decades, progress on the “total factor productivity” front can help
overcome the problem of slowdown in productivity growth and the resulting a fall in
social welfare for the vast majority of economies worldwide. Increasing “total factor
productivity” levels depends strongly on technological and innovative developments
as well as improvements in energy and resource efficiency. In this framework, the “twin
transition” encompassing “green transition” and “digital transition” stands out as the
dominant growth paradigm of the second quarter of the 21st century. Conjectural
developments including but not limited to the Covid-19 pandemic also emphasize this
axis.
In 2020, the global economy shrank by 3.5 percent, due to the impact of the Covid-19
pandemic. It was a year of mandatory lockdowns leading to supply shocks affecting
the global value chain, along with the demand shocks caused by the changing
consumption structures and fluctuations. Thus came the biggest recession of the past
60 years. The rate of negative growth was twice the figure endured during the global
recession of 2008-2009. The lockdowns introduced due to the Covid-19 pandemic not
5 Executive Summary: Financing the Energy Transition in Turkey within the Context of the Green New Deal
only caused interruptions in production and circulation, but also led to changes in the
structure of consumption. Supply and demand shocks led to substantial volatility.
In spite of the relatively significant bounce back in economic activity in 2021, and the
estimates that the global gross product surpassed the levels reached in 2019, a lasting
recovery and overcoming the inequalities the pandemic caused among and within
nations is expected to take several years. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine
is also constricting the global supply of energy and other commodities, and adding to
the negative effects.
With the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic, global fixed capital investments exhibited a
sharp decline in 2020, despite increased liquidity due to financial measure packages
introduced, and the associated fall in the cost of borrowing. On the other hand, in light
of the need for medium to long-term investments from a “Twin Transition” perspective,
it can be reckoned that the world now is in a unique threshold, with high-volume
physical investment potential in a trend led by developed economies.
Channeling the assets of institutional investors such as pension funds, insurance firms,
sovereign wealth funds and foundations, whose structure make them capable of long-
term investments, to financing low-carbon investments is a potentially sound move.
Assuming one percent of the funds worth USD 87 trillion controlled by institutional
investors is invested directly to renewable energy or energy transition until year 2030,
15 to 30 percent of the additional financing required for energy transition investments
may be covered.
The economic growth model or paradigm denoted by the Green New Deal
concept differs from previous models emphasizing crisis recovery due to two basic
characteristics: First of all, the Green New Deal paradigm incorporates a solid mass
of climate and environmental concerns and efforts into the economic and social
policies envisaged. Secondly, robust international commitments and targets well
beyond the national/country scale are part of the new model. The European New Deal
and its relevant documents, with the most distinct and detailed policy framework to
date, strongly underline climate commitments. Moreover, it is evident that the EU is
accompanied by Japan and South Korea in presenting the “Green New Deal” as the
fundamental economic growth paradigm, while the US and China have also been
taking important steps in this direction. Individual nations are not the only entities
to voice investment and financing commitments to mitigate medium to long-term
climate change. International organizations including but not limited to Multilateral
6 Executive Summary: Financing the Energy Transition in Turkey within the Context of the Green New Deal
Development Banks, institutional investors, and large corporations have also made
pledges of their own.
As approximately EUR 1.8 trillion is set aside out of the EU budget for investments
within the framework of the European Green Deal in the period 2021-2027, the
European Investment Bank Group (EIB) is expected to play a major part in the
financing of the investments required under the European Green Deal, through direct
as well as indirect funding. In this context, plans are in place for the structuring of the
EIB as a “Climate Bank”, with the share of funding for climate-related projects set to
rise from the current level of 25 percent to 50 percent by the year 2025.
Estimates suggest that USD 110 trillion will be required in investments for energy
transition in the global scale by the year 2050. More than 50 percent of that figure
would be required in the period 2021-2030.
2030 2050
There is a noteworthy overlap between the need for structural transformation of the
Turkish economy, and the agenda for the Green New Deal. In spite of intensifying
challenges, especially the limited means of financing available, the opportunities
presented by the Green New Deal paradigm at the international level, including but
not limited to the European Green Deal, provide the foundations for a speedy and
significant leap for Turkey.
In the period 2002-2021, the Turkish economy registered an average annual growth of
5.5 percent. However, the average growth rate of 5.8 percent in the period 2002-2017
receded to 1.9 percent in the period 2018-2020. The declining economic performance
was brought about by first the debt crisis unraveled by the exchange rate shocks in
2018, followed by the supply and demand shocks brought about by the Covid-19
pandemic. The most important development that triggered rapid devaluation of
7 Executive Summary: Financing the Energy Transition in Turkey within the Context of the Green New Deal
Turkish Lira was the difficulty of financial debt service exacerbated by foreign debt.
In 2021, on the other hand, the GDP bounced back substantially, as the restrictions
associated with the Covid-19 pandemic, including but not limited to the lockdowns,
were eased, while the demand levels were strong worldwide.
2.002
0,9
1.804
1.772
1.746
0
1.694
1.576
1.528
1.440
1.369
1.262
1.204
1.084 -2,0
1.049
1.040
500
999
990
924
848
773
732
-4,0
-4,7
0 -6,0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
• Turkey’s dependence on the inflow of foreign funding makes it hard to service debt,
and renders the country susceptible to sudden exchange rate shocks. However,
a more comprehensive assessment leads to the conclusion that the troubles
experienced after 2017 were essentially due to Turkey’s structural problems:
o Lack of progress to achieve the necessary transformation in industry
o Industrial production structure making current account deficits unavoidable
o Reaching natural limits of demographic and sectoral shifts
o State’s withdrawal from economic activity being nearly completed
o Blockages in financing growth
• One of the most prominent consequences of the debt crisis, which arrived with
the rapid devaluation of TRY in 2018, and which had remained in effect with ups
and downs ever since, was the change in the composition of foreign debt. Even
though the total foreign debt fell by 3 percent by the end of 2021 compared to the
end of 2017, a substantial shift occurred in the structure of foreign debt. The foreign
debt of the private sector in general, including both the financial sector and the
real sector, fell significantly whereas the foreign debt of the government increased
sharply. The bond issues by the treasury as well as foreign borrowing by state-
owned banks and the Turkey Wealth Fund grew in scale and quantity. In parallel to
the change in the composition of foreign borrowing, the share of loans extended by
private banks declined whereas lending by state-owned banks grew.
• In the period 2002-2021, the energy markets in Turkey were liberalized substantially
through a number of steps including the privatization of power plants, electricity
and natural gas distribution regions, refineries and fuel distribution networks,
and the issuing of licenses for power generation. The share of the private sector
in electricity generation grew from 32% in 2002 to 84% in 2021. The same period
was one of rapidly expanding energy demand and supply, in parallel to the robust
economic growth in the country.
8 Executive Summary: Financing the Energy Transition in Turkey within the Context of the Green New Deal
• As of the first quarter of 2022, the total installed power generation capacity of
Turkey exceeds 100 gigawatts (GW). Renewables constitute 54% of the installed
capacity while the remainder is fossil fuels, composed of natural gas and domestic
and imported coal. As the installed capacity grew by 252% in the period 2001-2021,
electricity generation increased 170%, in connection with the developments on
the demand side. On the other hand, during 2018-2021 the growth in installed
capacity declined due to the challenging financial environment, already high levels
of installed power, the complexity and uncertainties of the political mechanisms
involved, slowing power demand in connection with the slowing economy, and the
pressures on electricity prices due to excess capacity.
• 2019 had registered a fall, albeit limited, in electricity generation –the first fall
since 2009– followed by a limited increase in 2020 and a solid increase in 2021, in
connection with the robust growth of GDP. In 2021 renewable resources constituted
36% of the 331 billion kWh electricity generation while 33% was from natural gas
and petroleum products, and 31% was coal. The share of renewable energy in
generation reached 42% in 2020, but fell in 2021 due to the fall in hydroelectric
power generation caused by drought conditions.
• In the period 2000-2020, energy intensity of Turkey decreased by 20%. This
reduction was a result not only structural changes in the economy, but also energy
of efficiency investments by the end-users of energy. The Energy Efficiency Strategy
Document of Turkey, published in 2012, set a target of 20% energy intensity
reduction in the period 2012-2023. However, after 2010, energy intensity fluctuated,
culminating in a reduction of 12.7% in primary energy intensity for the period 2012-
2020.
• Approximately 44% of 125 billion US$ invested in energy in the period 2002-2021
was for renewable energy generation and network integration. When energy
efficiency investments are included, total investment level goes up to 140 billion
US$ with energy transition investment constituting 70 billion US$.
Energy Transition Financing Needs in Turkey within the framework of the Green
New Deal
• On 7 October 2021, Turkey ratified Paris Agreement, and committed to a net zero
carbon emissions target by the year 2053. On this axis, in line with the strategic
direction taken as the “Green Development Revolution”, work began on preparing a
long-term climate change strategy and action plan, and establishing a road map to
reflect climate goals of Turkey.
• According to the scenarios ran by the SHURA Energy Transition Center, 135 billion
US$ will be needed in energy transition investments during the period 2022-2030,
while USD 107 billion will be needed for financing other than own capital. In this
context, the annual investment requirement will double compared to the average
amount in the period 2002-2020, whereas the need for financing other than own
capital will be 2.5 times higher.
9 Executive Summary: Financing the Energy Transition in Turkey within the Context of the Green New Deal
Need for Investment in Energy Transition - billion US$ (2022-2030)
Electrification 22.8
Grid 5.0
Total 135.0
Reference: SHURA Energy Transition Center 2020, authors
Recommendations for Policy and Action Areas within the framework of the Green
New Deal
The policy and action area recommendations were developed based on extensive
stakeholder interviews as well as current documents such as policy documents,
reflecting basic strategies and trends. Interviews were held with 76 representatives
from 51 entities comprised of the representatives of government agencies,
international and local financial institutions, energy firms, technology firms, industrial
institutions, and industry associations, as well as academic staff and consultants.
Recommendations regarding the following policy and action areas were developed on
the basis of the interviews and desk-based analyses. Policy and Action Areas 1, 2 and 3
cover the macro-level areas where action under the leadership of and coordination by
the state along with the participation of the private sector and civil society is needed.
Policy and Action areas 4, 5, 6, and 7, on the other hand, cover the areas where the
state would develop, in cooperation with the finance sector, the private sector, trade
associations, and stakeholders from civil society, the regulations and incentives
needed. The implementation and action, on the other hand, will mostly depend on the
finance sector and the private sector stakeholders. Policy and Action Area 8, in turn,
is envisaged as an area where the state will provide both guidance and assistance in
cooperation with the private sector, taking a relatively more active part in resource
mobilization compared to the other policy areas.
10 Executive Summary: Financing the Energy Transition in Turkey within the Context of the Green New Deal
support as investor and establishing the needs for energy transition investment
and finance with respect to scale by technology type.
11 Executive Summary: Financing the Energy Transition in Turkey within the Context of the Green New Deal
• Policy and Action Area 5: Development of Utility Scale Renewable Energy
Financing Mechanisms / Models: Renewable energy investments at the utility
scale can be considered an advanced area of investment in which the finance
sector is rather experienced. However, models other than financing based on
guaranteed feed-in tariffs need to be developed in order to ensure required levels
of investment. Against this background, renewable energy supply agreements
(Power Purchase Agreements - PPAs) and similar long-term sales agreements
will be part of the agenda. The adaptation of the new financing models in light
of the increasing diversification of stakeholder groups and new business models
will also increase their effectiveness. In this context, industrial and commercial
enterprises seeking to purchase green energy, and larger corporations, electricity
distribution and fuel distribution firms in the light of the electrification of transport
will stand out as potential players at the supply and the demand side of financing.
Considering such diversification, alternative means of financing such as issuance of
international green bonds by energy firms, institutional investor funds, and venture
capital shall be required in addition to the corporate loans / project financing to
provide funding for renewable energy projects at the utility scale.
12 Executive Summary: Financing the Energy Transition in Turkey within the Context of the Green New Deal
• Policy and Action Area 7: Financing of Energy Efficiency: Some difficulty exists
in energy efficiency financing due to uncertainties involving collateralization,
assessment and evaluation The following measures cross-cutting Policy Action
Areas 2, 4 and 6 can be recommended to reduce such uncertainties:
• Policy and Action Area 8: Financing of New Technologies and Other Areas:
It is necessary to increase the efficiency of the public sector in the financing
of investments for new technologies. Supporting both R&D processes for
technologies being developed, and participating in large scale and/or emerging
technology investments will increase effectiveness. The development of public-
private cooperation models such as Turkey Automobile Enterprise Group (TOGG) in
the context of the electrification of transportation will allow the mobilization of the
private sector’s resources as well.
13 Executive Summary: Financing the Energy Transition in Turkey within the Context of the Green New Deal
NOTES
14 Executive Summary: Financing the Energy Transition in Turkey within the Context of the Green New Deal
About Istanbul Policy Center at the Sabancı University
Istanbul Policy Center (IPC) is a global policy research institution that specializes in key social and political issues
ranging from democratization to climate change, transatlantic relations to conflict resolution and mediation. IPC
organizes and conducts its research under three main clusters: The Istanbul Policy Center–Sabancı University–
Stiftung Mercator Initiative, Democratization and Institutional Reform, and Conflict Resolution and Mediation.
Since 2001, IPC has provided decision makers, opinion leaders, and other major stakeholders with objective
analyses and innovative policy recommendations.