Thayer USS Ronald Reagan To Visit Vietnam - 2

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:
ABN # 65 648 097 123

USS Ronald Reagan to Visit
Vietnam – 2
June 23, 2023
The U.S. aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan will dock at Da Nang on June 25.
Q1. What does the visit of this aircraft carrier mean for relations between Vietnam
and the United States? Is it significant and meaningful?
ANSWER: The visit of the USS Ronald Reagan is part of a long-standing program of
naval engagement activities between the United States and Vietnam that began in
2004.
In March 2018, for the first time, Vietnam hosted a visit by a nuclear-powered aircraft
carrier, the USS Carl Vinson. Vietnam declined a request by the United States for
annual visits by aircraft carriers. The second visit by a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier
took place in March 2020, when the USS Theodore Roosevelt called in at Tien Sa port,
Da Nang.
The significance of these visits by aircraft carriers is that they underscore the
importance of a U.S. Navy presence to maintain peace and security in the South China
Sea. Vietnam welcomes visits by all navies but restrict them to one visit to a military
port each year. A visit can include multiple warships.
Q2. There are some sources saying that this visit of the US aircraft carrier was
supposed to be made last year, but was cancelled. So what is the reason for the
cancellation?
ANSWER: The United States has not issued any explanation for the abrupt cancellation
of the visit by the USS Ronald Reagan scheduled for July 2022.
A high-ranking Vietnamese official told me in Hanoi in August 2022 that the U.S. kept
changing the date for the port call. Vietnam had planned extensive welcoming
ceremonies in Da Nang. Vietnam decided to cancel the visit because these changes
would have been very disruptive to normal business activities in Da Nang.
A second factor likely weighed on Vietnam’s decision. In July 2022, tensions in East
Asia rose to an all-time high as China conducted provocative military activities around
Taiwan in response to U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei. Vietnam has always
welcomed the visit of U.S Navy warships as long as they contributed to regional peace
and security. However, in July 2022, China called out the United States as the cause of
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heightened tensions. In these circumstances, Vietnamese leaders may have concluded

that a visit by the USS Ronald Reagan was inappropriate.
Q3. Is the visit a tit for tat reaction to the Chinese activity in the area? Or did the US
Navy plan this port visit months in advance?
ANSWER: It is very likely that the U.S. sought permission for a port visit well in advance
to coincide with the scheduled deployment of the USS Ronald Reagan to the South
China Sea.
China’s stepped up assertiveness in Vietnamese waters in May-June no doubt
reinforced a convergence of views in Hanoi and Washington that the visit of the USS
Ronald Reagan was timely for the signal it would send to Beijing.
It should be noted that Vietnam just hosted a visit by Japan’s Maritime Self-Defence
Force’s JS Izumo destroyer/carrier to the Cam Ranh International Port. The JS Izumo
had just concluded combined operations with the USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike
Group in the South China Sea.
Q4. Will this visit make China unpleasant? And how does the visit affect Vietnam-China
relations?
ANSWER: Beijing views the United States as a power outside the region that meddles
in China’s sphere of influence and does not respect China’s core interests. China will
not be pleased to see the USS Ronald Reagan make a friendly port call to Vietnam.
Chinese media are likely to accuse the U.S. of nefariously plotting to contain China. At
the same time, Chinese media will warn Vietnam not to be taken in by the United
States.
It is no coincidence that Vietnam’s Ministry of National Defence announced that the
USS Ronald Reagan would be visiting Da Nang on 25 June at the same time as
Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Prime Minister Pham Minh
Chinh would be making a four-day official visit to China also commencing 25 June.
No doubt Chinese intrusions into Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone in waters near
Vanguard Bank and Vietnam’s hosting the USS Ronald Reagan will be discussed by
Prime Minh Chinh and his counterpart Premier Li Qiang.
Q5. Since the beginning of May, China has continuously dispatched survey ships to
operate in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone. How do you explain China’s actions?
ANSWER: China is asserting its claims to sovereignty by physically sailing near oil
exploration blocks where Russian oil companies Zarubezhneft and Gazprom are
active. China is trying to intimidate both Vietnam and Russia into standing down. No
doubt political pressure is being applied through diplomatic channels as well.
Q6 Is this a spontaneous action or is it part of China's calculations?
ANSWER: In 2017, 2018 and 2019, China conducted similar activities to intimidate
Repsol of Spain and Russia’s Rosneft who were active in waters near Vanguard Bank.
China succeeded. Vietnam ordered Repsol to cease its activities and then paid
compensation. Rosneft buckled under Chinese pressure and sold its equity to
Zarubezhneft.
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China’s actions are also in response last year’s agreement between Indonesia and
Vietnam to demarcate their respective Exclusive Economic Zones. Also, China is
seeking to prevent Zarubezhneft from pumping LNG from its holdings in Indonesia’s
Tuna Block to Vietnam’s Nam Con Son Basin and then to Vietnam’s east coast for
processing.
Beijing’s actions are part of a long-term strategy to force foreign oil companies from
operating in Malaysian, Philippine and Vietnamese waters claimed by China.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “USS Ronald Reagan to Visit Vietnam – 2,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June 23, 2023. All background briefs are posted
on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

June 23, 2023

heightened tensions. In these circumstances, Vietnamese leaders may have concluded

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