Investigating The Relationship Between National Income, Carbon Emissions, and Food Production

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IB HL MATHEMATICS: APPLICATION AND INTREPERTATION IA

Investigating the relationship between national income, carbon


emissions, and food production

Danial Ihsan Bin Shaufique Fahmi


A22G
Table of Contents

Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………1
Methodology…………………………………...
Introduction

As a DP student studying environmental society and system, pollution has been one of the
topics that have taken my interest. More specifically, it is the negative impacts that occur
due to pollution besides the more explicit ones such as adverse health outcomes. Ever since
I was young, I have been an avid reader of environmental related books. This has sparked
my interest to investigate the extent of pollution on a country’s food production amidst
food security issues in Malaysia. Conveniently, my interest in pollution has inspired me to
use my Math IA as a platform to investigate factors that could correlate to food production.

Even though studying these factors alone may lead to inaccurate results due to the varying
countries capabilities of food production, I decided to consider the constraints of conducting
the exploration and ways I can overcome these problems. As an environmental enthusiast
and a DP student I plan to investigate the factors affecting food production using a
mathematical approach that can provide me with quantitative evidence.

Aims and Objective

As stated in my research question I plan to investigate the relationship between national


income, carbon emissions and food production. First off, I would like to determine whether
the food production is dependent on carbon emissions and national income using the Chi
Square Test of Independence. From there I will use correlation coefficient to determine the
strength and direction of the correlation between these two variables with food production
being the dependent variable and carbon emissions and national income being the
independent variable. To study whether either variable lead to an increase or a monotonic
relationship I will also conduct a Spearman Correlation on both variables. Then, I will use
multiple regression analysis to analyse the relationship between a dependent variable (food
production) and multiple independent variables (carbon emissions and national income). I
plan to identify which independent variables are most strongly associated with the
dependent variable and to develop a model that the value of the food production index
based on the value of its independent variables. Lastly, I will conduct hypothesis testing on
the correlation to test whether there is a correlation between the variables and if so,
whether they are negatively or positively correlated. I will also conduct paired t-test to
observe whether developed or developing countries have significance difference in food
production.
Methodology

Sampling

Upon examination, I decided to obtain the data through the world development index. To
obtain data sample I used a stratified random sampling method to reduce difficulty and time
taken to conduct calculation if whole population is used. To do so I divided the list of 193
countries into two different subcategories before being chosen randomly. The subcategories
I wanted to research was developed and developing countries to determine whether there
is a significant difference in correlation and mean when conducting the research. Then I
inserted a list of 30 developed and 30 developing countries into a random generator
separately. In total, the sample consisted of 80 countries which is 30% of the total world’s
countries. I tried to ensure the sample size was large enough to be the representative of the
entire population.

Data Collection
After developing the sample, I referred to the World Development Index (WDI) database to
obtain the data for the independent variables. WDI is gathered from officially recognized
international sources. It comprises national, regional, and global estimations and provides
the most recent and reliable statistics on world development.

Table 1: The GDP per capita (US Dollar), food production index and CO2 emissions of developed
countries
No. Developed CO2 Food Production GDP per
Countries Index capita (US
Dollar)

1. Slovenia 0.288898 102.25 23483.5


2. France 0.1195 97.03 38259.7
3. Japan 0.243698 99.5 36117.2
4. Luxembourg 0.144112 111.03 106377
5. Switzerland 0.05074 101.65 86756.6
6. Italy 0.170189 99.14 31593.5
7. United Kingdom 0.115469 99.56 47006.1
8. Australia 0.265103 97.37 1.50E+12
9. Greece 0.32487 98.29 18647.5
10. Lithuania 0.25289 83.23 16443.6
11. Spain 0.198003 117.74 27739.9
12. Ireland 0.106959 110.06 72339.4
13. Norway 0.899981 134.31 18256.7
14. Romania 0.358223 118.63 10778.4
15. Estonia 0.59091 84.71 19611.6
16. Sweden 0.066795 84.16 52983
17. Czech,Republic 0.482086 92.93 19689.6
18. Cyprus 0.303778 102.36 27241
19. Portugal 0.228582 101.77 21057.6
20. Poland 0.570058 102.97 14408.4
21. United,States 0.25538 103.35 59607.4
22. Austria 0.625754 113.25 5262.18
23. Slovakia 0.340024 97.9 17818.2
24. Germany 0.198846 91.58 42928.7
25. Croatia 0.297034 83.74 13531.2
26. Latvia 0.259803 83.55 15558.7
27. Belgium 0.193391 98.38 42382.3
28. Malta 0.114782 77.21 27864.2
29. New,Zealand 0.163588 102.16 40365.2
30. Bulgaria 0.740746 105.82 7859.69

Table 2: The GDP per capita (US Dollar), food production index and CO2 emissions of developing
countries
No. Developing CO2 Food production GDP per capita (US
Countries Index Dollar)

1. Qatar 0.519891 134.39 60080.7


2. India 0.947066 115.01 1891.14
3. Namibia 0.372967 101.97 4714.46
4. Lesotho 0.308042 108.09 1078.16
5. Niger 0.169165 119.84 510.573
6. Costa,Rica 0.133147 105.69 12471
7. Yemen 0.264208 90.12 1194.82
8. Gabon 0.344157 102.43 6786.89
9. Peru 0.259572 111.64 6530.5
10. Barbados 0.257449 108.02 17220.9
11. Thailand 0.570356 103.94 6336.24
12. Republic of Korea 0.393682 99.37 31053.6
13. Estonia 0.59091 84.71 19611.6
14. Paraguay 0.207389 110.21 6338.51
15. Dominican,Republic 0.297788 112.99 7894.96
16. Argentina 0.303369 97.41 13105.4
17. Honduras 0.423501 106.84 2423.27
18. Cuba 0.292969 95.16 8048.02
19. Oman 0.899981 134.31 18256.7
20. Sudan 0.242047 117.52 2051.99
21. Gambia 0.348263 92.71 645.938
22. Brunei,Darussalam 0.58979 100.66 29438.1
23. Papua,New,Guinea 0.319529 101.18 2536.09
24. Cameroon 0.264606 100.97 1445.27
25. Zambia 0.325507 112.51 1331.45
26. Pakistan 0.591804 107.83 1440.43
27. Mali 0.357493 123.91 767.572
28. Guinea-Bissau 0.267792 102.32 620.771
29. Mauritius 0.306345 89.18 10654.8
30. Nigeria 0.220501 104.69 2512.08

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