climate

Article
Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wind Energy
Rebecca J. Barthelmie 1, * and Sara C. Pryor 2

1 Sibley School for Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
2 Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA;
[email protected]
* Correspondence: [email protected]

Abstract: Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of
energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of
wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind turbines
now provide ~6–7% of the global electricity supply. This renewable electricity generation source
is thus already playing a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Here
we document trends within the industry, examine projections of future installed capacity increases
and compute the associated climate change mitigation potential at the global and regional levels.
Key countries (the USA, UK and China) and regions (e.g., EU27) have developed ambitious plans to
expand wind energy penetration as core aspects of their net-zero emissions strategies. The projected
climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3–0.8 ◦ C depending on the
precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed. The rapid expansion
of annual increments to wind energy installed capacity by approximately two times current rates
can greatly delay the passing of the 2 ◦ C warming threshold relative to pre-industrial levels. To
achieve the required expansion of this cost-effective, low-carbon energy source, there is a need for



electrification of the energy system and for expansion of manufacturing and installation capacity.



Citation: Barthelmie, R.J.; Pryor, S.C. Keywords: wind turbines; temperature change; avoided emissions; greenhouse gas emissions;
Climate Change Mitigation Potential renewable energy
of Wind Energy. Climate 2021, 9, 136.
https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9090136

Academic Editors: Dalia Streimikiene 1. Introduction

and Tomas Baležentis
Current global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (including those from land-use
change) of 59.1 GtCO2e are dominated by fossil fuel combustion (38.0 GtCO2 ) associated
Received: 30 July 2021
primarily with electricity and heat generation (24% of GHG emissions) plus transformation
Accepted: 25 August 2021
and fugitive emissions (10%) [1]. As 189 countries seek to implement the Paris climate agree-
Published: 28 August 2021
ment to reduce emissions of GHG including carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and limit the increase in
global temperature from the pre-industrial baseline (∆T) to 2◦ C or less, decarbonization of
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral
the energy sector is a major goal [2].
with regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional affil-
The maturity of the wind energy industry with low-cost, low-carbon electricity gener-
iations.
ation means that the growth of wind energy penetration into global electricity generation
systems has long been recognized as a potential mechanism to reduce climate forcing [3].
Over the past two decades, wind energy deployed on land has become the cheapest source
of electricity generation [4]. Accordingly, many countries have ambitious plans to expand
both onshore and offshore wind energy installed capacity as well as further exploiting solar
Copyright: © 2021 by the authors.
energy resources [1].
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
In earlier work (2014), we explored whether the enhanced deployment of wind energy
This article is an open access article
could substantially impact climate change trajectories. We concluded that, with ambitious
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
wind energy scenarios, it was possible to “buy time” to delay passing a 2 ◦ C warming
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
temperature threshold that was of the order 1–10 years, depending on the overall emissions
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ scenario [3]. As CO2 emissions continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, we updated
4.0/).

Climate 2021, 9, 136. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9090136 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/climate

Climate 2021, 9, 136 2 of 22

the conclusions in 2020 to show advanced wind energy scenarios could still delay exceed-
ing the 2 ◦ C threshold by up to 5 years, and, by 2050, reduce cumulative emissions by
~154 GtCO2 [5]. In light of the rapidity of changes in national and global ambitions to
reduce anthropogenic forcing, here we revisit this issue. We characterize recent growth
trends in the wind energy industry and present analyses to quantify the mitigation poten-
tial from wind-derived electricity in the rapidly evolving context of new global aspirations
and regional policies and targets.

2. Methodology
To assess the future climate change mitigation potential of wind energy we begin in
this section by, documenting the assumptions upon which the climate change mitigation
potential are predicated. Accordingly, we start by describing the current status of the
energy sector and its related GHG emissions. In the following sub-section, we detail
current energy demand and related metrics, focusing on the top four GHG emitters (China,
US, EU+UK and India) that contribute over 55% of total non-land use change related
global CO2 emissions [1] (Table 1). These four also have the largest TPES and electricity
use (Figure 1 and Table 1), closely followed by Russia and Japan. Following that, we
summarize current climate pledges focused on those from the four areas. To assess how
much wind energy expansion is feasible to 2050, we start by documenting historical trends
of wind energy deployment and then detail near-term plans. For the future period (beyond
2025) we quantify plans for expansion of on- and off-shore wind turbine deployments
by country and examine scenarios of potential wind energy deployment developed by
non-governmental agencies. We conclude this section by briefly summarizing the IPCC
socio-economic pathways and RCP scenarios.

Table 1. Annual Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES), electricity consumption, carbon dioxide emissions from energy use,
and population by country or region. Additionally shown are per capita rates of TPES, electricity consumption and CO2
emissions from energy use. Data from [6].

Per Capita
Electricity Electricity
CO2 Population CO2 Emission
TPES (Mtoe) Consumption TPES (toe per Consumption
Emissions (Gt) (Million) (tonne per
(TWh) Capita) (MWh per
Capita)
Capita)
China 3196 6833 9.582 1393 2.3 4.9 6.8
US 2231 4289 4.921 327 6.8 13.1 15.0
EU+UK 1603 3098 3.156 514 3.1 6.0 6.1
India 919 1309 2.308 1353 0.7 1.0 1.7
World 14,282 24,739 33.513 7588 1.9 3.3 4.4

2.1. Energy and GHG Emissions

Energy use is a key driver of global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The
International Energy Agency (IEA) states “CO2 emitted from coal combustion was respon-
sible for over 0.3 ◦ C of the 1 ◦ C increase in global average annual surface temperatures
above pre-industrial levels. This makes coal the single largest source of global temperature
increase” [7]. Overall total primary energy supply (TPES) is continuing to grow. Annual
TPES increased from 6908 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 1973 to 14,282 Mtoe
in 2018. This equates to an annualized rate of increase of ~3.7% and includes increases in
demand for coal, natural gas, and oil leading to an increase in energy-related CO2 emissions
by 1.7% to 33.1 GtCO2 in 2018 [7] (Figure 1).
The contribution to energy supply from electricity has also grown over recent decades
from 6131 TWh (9.4% of TPES) in 1973 to 26,619 TWh in 2018 (19.3% of TPES) (an increase
of 7.4% per year) [6]. This trend towards electrification, e.g., the use of electric vehicles
and in industrial processes is likely to enable both increasing reliance on renewable energy
sources and reductions of GHG emissions. Although the recent growth of renewable
energy for electricity generation is substantial, in absolute terms fossil fuels remain the
 Climate
Climate 2021,
2021, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW
9, 136 3 of 23 3 of 22

vehicles and in industrial processes is likely to enable both increasing reliance on

overwhelmingly
renewable energy sourcesdominant component
and reductions of energy
of GHG demand
emissions. Although in the
every area,
recent and globally
growth
of renewable
(Figure energy for comprises
1). Transport electricity generation
~36% of is substantial,
energy demand in absolute terms fossil ~24%
and contributes fuels of global
remainemissions
GHG the overwhelmingly dominant
[6]. According component
to some of energy
estimates, demand
by 2040 the in every
share ofarea, and
renewable energy
globally (Figure 1). Transport comprises ~36% of energy demand
sources needs to increase from 3.5% to 19% in the transportation sector, 10% toand contributes ~24% of25% in the
global GHG emissions [6]. According to some estimates, by 2040 the share of renewable
provision of heat and 25 to 67% in electricity in order to be on track to meet climate goals
energy sources needs to increase from 3.5% to 19% in the transportation sector, 10% to
and reduce air pollution [7].
25% in the provision of heat and 25 to 67% in electricity in order to be on track to meet
Although
climate goals andhydroelectricity currently
reduce air pollution [7]. dominates renewable electricity generation (4325 TWh,
around 16% ofhydroelectricity
Although total electricity supply)dominates
currently [6], the largest growth
renewable rates and
electricity most future sce-
generation
narios envisage
(4325 TWh, around major
16% of expansion in wind
total electricity and [6],
supply) solar
theenergy
largest [7].
growthGHG emissions
rates and mostfrom wind
energy are estimated
future scenarios envisagetomajor
be 14.5–28.5
expansionginCO 2e per
wind andkWh of electricity
solar energy [7]. GHG generated
emissions compared
from
to wind energy
360–1259 g CO are
2e estimated
per kWh to be
for 14.5–28.5
fossil fuelg CO 2e per kWh[8].
generation of electricity
Some generated
estimates of lifetime
compared
GHG to 360–1259
emissions fromgwind CO2e per kWh for
turbines fossil fuel
deployed generation
onshore are [8].
7 g Some
CO2e estimates
per kWhofwhile some
lifetime GHG
estimates foremissions
offshore from wind turbines
deployments deployed
are 11 g CO2eonshore
per kWh are [9].
7 g CO 2e per kWh while
Given the market readiness
some estimates for offshore deployments are 11 g CO2e per kWh [9]. Given the market
and low cost of electricity generation from wind turbines, we focus here on wind energy
readiness and low cost of electricity generation from wind turbines, we focus here on wind
and examine how current plans for expanded use of this technology will/could contribute
energy and examine how current plans for expanded use of this technology will/could
to
contribute toGHG
meeting meeting emission reduction
GHG emission goals.goals.
reduction

Figure 1. Energy demand and annual energy demand growth from selected sources [7]. To enable
comparison across different fuel types they were also converted to electricity in TWh (NB. Not calorific
equivalents). (a) Energy demand (2018) by country/area where ROW = Rest of World. (b) Annual
growth 2017–2018 (in %). Conversion factors; 1 Mtoe produces approx. 4.4 TWh electricity; 1 barrel
of oil per day = 49.8 tonnes per year; 1 bcm gas = 0.86 Mtoe; 1.5 tonnes of hard coal or 3 tonnes lignite
and sub-bituminous coal (average 2.25 tonnes = 1 tonne oil) [10].
Climate 2021, 9, 136 4 of 22

Note, in synthesizing data across multiple sources, agencies and countries there
are inevitably some inconsistencies and simplifying assumptions that must be invoked.
For example, while data presented here for the IPCC RCP denote total GHG emissions
expressed at the mass of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e ) because most GHG emissions
from fuel combustion are in the form of carbon dioxide, where energy-related GHG
emissions (or avoided emissions) are presented they are for CO2 only. Furthermore, in
order to equate emissions from different fuel types, some assumptions about energy content
and/or electricity generation efficiency and/or GHG emission rates must be made. For
example, the following conversion factors are employed; Combustion of 1 Mtoe produces
approx. 4.4 TWh electricity; production of 1 barrel of oil per day = 49.8 tonnes of oil per
year; 1 bcm gas = 0.86 Mtoe; 1.5 tonnes of hard coal or 3 tonnes lignite and sub-bituminous
coal (average 2.25 tonnes) = 1 tonne oil [10].

2.2. Pledges and Targets

Since adoption of the Paris accord of United Nation Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) based on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), there
were both political and market factors moving towards the decarbonization of not just
electricity generation but the entire energy sector. A total of 145 of the 194 submitted NDCs
include renewable energy and 109 have a quantified target for renewables [11,12] to reduce
GHG emissions [13] (Table 2). By April 2021 44 countries plus the European Union (EU)
pledged to meet the net-zero emissions target, most by the year 2050. These countries
account for about 70% of global CO2 emissions but, even if fully realized, these changes
will be insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5 ◦ C [14].

Table 2. Climate-relevant pledges and targets. Additionally shown are installed capacity (IC) of wind energy in 2020 and
historical annual rates of increase in IC [11].

Wind Energy Annual Increase IC

Pledges and Targets
IC 2020 (GW) Wind Energy (GW) (%)
Reduce CO2 emissions intensity per unit of GDP by 65%,
increase non-fossil fuel contribution to TPES to 25% and
expand wind and solar IC >1200 GW. Plans for carbon
China neutrality by 2060 [15]. Beijing declaration on wind energy, 288 52 (18%)
50 GW annual added IC to 2025, increasing to 60 GW
annually to 3000 GW by 2060 [11]. Guangdong and Jiangsu
Province plans >30 GW offshore IC by 2025 [16].
Reduce GHG emissions by 50–52% below 2005 levels by
2030. Net-zero emissions pledge by 2050 under the Biden
administration [11,13,17]. A total of 30 GW offshore wind
US 122 16 (14%)
IC by 2030 [17]. A total of 10% of U.S. electrical demand
(4128 TWh in 2019 [18]) by 2020, 20% in 2030, and 35% in
2050 [19].
EU climate neutrality by 2050 and renewables 32% of TPES
by 2030 [13]. UK targets: GHG reduction >68% by 2030, cf
EU+UK 219 15 (7%)
1990 levels, net zero emissions by 2050 [13]. UK 40 GW
offshore wind IC by 2030 [20].
33–35% reduction in carbon emissions intensity by 2030
relative to 2005. Renewables target 175 GW by 2022 (wind
India 39 1 (3%)
60 GW onshore; 5 GW offshore), 450 GW by 2030, including
30 GW offshore [11].
World 743 93 (13%)

2.3. Growth of Wind Energy

2.3.1. Wind Energy Industry Historical Trends
Wind turbines are deployed to harness wind resources in over 90 countries. By 2020,
742 GW of wind energy capacity was installed, 35 GW of which was offshore (Figure 2) [11].
As of the end of 2020, 12 countries have an installed capacity (IC) above 10 GW, and twenty
 GW offshore), 450 GW by 2030, including 30 GW offshore [11].
World 743 93 (13%)

2.3. Growth of Wind Energy

Climate 2021, 9, 136

2.3.1. Wind Energy Industry Historical Trends 5 of 22
Wind turbines are deployed to harness wind resources in over 90 countries. By 202
742 GW of wind energy capacity was installed, 35 GW of which was offshore (Figure
[11]. As of the end of 2020, 12 countries have an installed capacity (IC) above 10 GW, an
have IC abovetwenty
5 GW have
[11]. As shown5inGW
IC above Figure
[11].2,As
ICshown
is dominated by 2,
in Figure Asia
IC (principally
is dominated by As
China with 288(principally
GW), Europe (largest
China with contributor; Germany
288 GW), Europe 62 GW)
(largest and North
contributor; America
Germany 62 GW) an
(dominated byNorth
the USA with 122
America GW) [11].by
(dominated IC the
increased at a mean
USA with annualized
122 GW) [11]. ICrate ~14.2%at a mea
increased
between 2006 and 2020. rate ∼14.2% between 2006 and 2020.
annualized

Figure
Figure 2. Total 2. Total
installed installed
capacity (IC) capacity (IC) ofshow
of wind energy windbyenergy
region show by region
(solid bars, (solid
left axis). Thebars, left installed
offshore axis). Thecapacity
for Asia, Europe and
offshore North America
installed capacityisforindicated using the
Asia, Europe andsame
Northcolors and thinner
America hatched
is indicated barsthe
using (right
sameaxis). The solid
colors
black line shows the accumulation
and thinner hatched bars of (right
globalaxis).
IC and thesolid
The dashed line
black denotes
line showsa the
14.2% annualized of
accumulation growth
globalrate. Data from
IC and
[11]. the dashed line denotes a 14.2% annualized growth rate. Data from [11].

Consistent with Consistent withinthe

the increase IC,increase in IC, wind
wind energy energy
electricity electricity production
production expanded fro
expanded from
104 TWh in 2005 to 1273 TWh in 2018 [6]. In 2019, wind energy
104 TWh in 2005 to 1273 TWh in 2018 [6]. In 2019, wind energy generated approximately generated approximate
6.5% of 26,600 TWh global electricity demand [11] with six countries generating more than more tha
6.5% of 26,600 TWh global electricity demand [11] with six countries generating
20% of demand. 20%Theof demand. The UK,
UK, Germany andGermany
Spain are and Spain
close are close to20%,
to achieving achieving 20%, ten countri
ten countries
more than 10% and China reported close to 5% of electricity supply from wind energ
more than 10% and China reported close to 5% of electricity supply from wind energy [21].
[21]. Denmark has the highest penetration of wind-generated electricity of 47%, which
Denmark has the highest penetration of wind-generated electricity of 47%, which is 32% in
32% in Ireland and 27% in Portugal [21]. In 2020, wind energy produced 459 TWh
Ireland and 27% in Portugal [21]. In 2020, wind energy produced 459 TWh of electricity in
electricity in Europe from 220 GW of wind energy IC. Wind-derived electricity productio
Europe from 220 GW of wind energy IC. Wind-derived electricity production in the EU27
in the EU27 was 382 TWh in 2020. The USA generates 8.4% of its electricity from win
was 382 TWh in 2020. The USA generates 8.4% of its electricity from wind (2020) with wind
(2020) with wind contributing nearly 25% in six states [22]. Current wind penetratio
contributing nearly 25% in six states [22]. Current wind penetration levels of electricity
levels of electricity generation compare favorably with other sources. For exampl
generation compare favorably with other sources. For example, approximately 10.2% of
approximately 10.2% of global electricity supply derives from nuclear, 16.3% fro
global electricity supply
hydroelectricderives from
plants, 3.3%nuclear, 16.3%
from oil, 22.9%from
fromhydroelectric
natural gas andplants,
38.3%3.3% from
from coal [23].
oil, 22.9% from natural gas and 38.3% from coal [23].
In the following sections, we document the near-term expectations for expansion
of the wind energy IC and examine the plans for the long-term growth of wind-derived
electricity generation in the context of the global energy supply for the top GHG emitters.

2.3.2. Near-Term Trends in Wind Energy Deployments

60 GW of wind energy installed capacity was added in 2019 [11]. In a 2019 report
by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global annual net wind capacity additions
were projected to be 65 GW by 2020 and 68 GW in 2021 (including 7.3 GW of net capacity
additions offshore) [24]. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, 92 GW of installed capacity was
actually added in 2020 [11]. The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) anticipates even
larger annual increases of nearly 94 GW until 2025, including 70 GW offshore over the
period 2021–2025 from IC of 35 GW in 2020 [11].
Climate 2021, 9, 136 6 of 22

The current growth in wind energy IC is not even across each region. Most regions,
including the USA, follow closely the global mean annual increase of 14% (Figure 2). In the
USA, IC reached 122 GW at the end of 2020 with an annual record installation of nearly
17 GW. The European Union (EU), which already had an IC of 48 GW in 2006, increased at
7% per year reaching 219 GW in 2020. In 2020 14.7 GW of new IC was installed in the EU.
IC increased in Asia from 2006–2020 by over 19% per year. Annual installations in China
exceeded 48 GW in 2020 as the market accelerated to beat the deadline in the transition to
subsidy-free onshore wind [11].

2.3.3. Future Wind Energy Pledges and Targets from National Governments
Global annual increases in wind energy IC are approaching 100 GW [11] with IC
in individual countries/regions increasing at annual rates of 3–18% (Table 2). While
impressive, this progress appears to be too slow to meet climate goals. The current rate
of the annual increase in wind energy installed capacity of 15 GW in Europe (Table 2)
is widely regarded to be insufficient to deliver the Green Deal and climate neutrality by
2050 [25]. WindEurope suggests that to meet the new 55% climate targets that would
require annual installation of almost twice as much (27 GW) [25,26]. The path to climate
neutrality by 2050 as currently envisaged by the EU relies on increasing electrification
from 2760 TWh/y today to meet 75% of energy demand (i.e., generation of 6800 TWh/y
in 2050). It is proposed that wind turbines deployed onshore will generate 2300 TWh/y,
and an additional 1200 TWh/y will be supplied by offshore wind IC [26]. The amount of
IC needed to meet these electricity generation goals is a strong function of the assumed
electricity generation efficiency. Assuming no increase in the efficiency of next-generation
wind turbines and thus capacity factors (CF) of 34% and 43%, respectively for onshore
and offshore wind [27], this represents approximately 770 GW IC onshore and 320 GW
IC offshore. Assuming the projected increase in capacity factors to 45% for onshore wind
and 50% for offshore wind, the required IC is 580 GW onshore and 270 GW offshore. Both
would require a faster rate of expansion of wind energy installed capacity (~21–28 GW/y)
than is currently being realized (15 GW/y, Table 2) but lower than the rate that some deem
possible [28]. According to government pledges, 105 GW of total new wind power IC will
be achieved by 2025 (75 GW by the EU27) [28]. The UK strategy relies on the expansion of
offshore wind IC from around 10 GW currently [28] to 40 GW by 2030 [20], which would
require considerable acceleration of the current rate of increase in IC of 0.48 GW/y in
2020 [28].
While China reached the levels of its intended annual wind IC increase of 50 GW in
2020, wind energy IC growth may fall as the Feed-in Tariff expires and is replaced by an
Emissions Trading Scheme [11]. Nonetheless, it indicates that 50 GW of annual installation
as planned is achievable in China.
In 2015 the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) updated its strategic vision for wind
energy [29]. The DoE Study Scenario sets out wind deployment levels to IC of 113 GW by
2020 to supply 10% of electricity. It further sets out wind deployment levels of 224 GW
by 2030, and 404 GW by 2050 [19,29] (Table 2). The 2020 IC target was met and indeed
slightly exceeded. The IC was 122 GW at the end of 2020 [30]. Unfortunately, in 2019,
wind energy supplied 296 TWh of total electricity generation or 7.2% of the total 4128 TWh.
Thus, penetration of the electricity supply fell short of the specified goal due largely to
unexpected large growth in electricity demand. The 2015 DoE wind vision proposed
20% of electricity supply from wind in 2030, and 35% in 2050 when electricity demand is
expected to be 4900 TWh/y. Assuming a CF of 48%, to reach the 35% goal by 2050 (i.e.,
wind-generated electricity of 1715 TWh/y), requires around 404 GW of wind energy IC by
2050. Given IC was 122 GW at the end of 2020 [30], achieving 404 GW of wind energy IC
would require annual additions of IC of around 10 GW/y. This is below the record rate
of nearly 17 GW achieved in 2020 [30]. At this rate, the IC goal for 2030 can be passed in
2026 and the 2050 goal by 2037. A separate goal of 30 GW of offshore wind IC by 2030 was
announced in early 2021 [17].
 expected to be 4900 TWh/y. Assuming a CF of 48%, to reach the 35% goal by 2050 (i.e.,
wind-generated electricity of 1715 TWh/y), requires around 404 GW of wind energy IC by
2050. Given IC was 122 GW at the end of 2020 [30], achieving 404 GW of wind energy IC
would require annual additions of IC of around 10 GW/y. This is below the record rate of
Climate 2021, 9, 136 nearly 17 GW achieved in 2020 [30]. At this rate, the IC goal for 2030 can be passed in 2026
7 of 22
and the 2050 goal by 2037. A separate goal of 30 GW of offshore wind IC by 2030 was
announced in early 2021 [17].
With the installation of around 1 GW wind IC in 2020, India looks unlikely to fulfill
With theplan
its current installation
of 65 GW of around
by 20221 GW wind
(from 39 IC
GWin in
2020, India
2020) andlooks unlikely
would needtomassive
fulfill its
current plan of 65 GW by 2022 (from 39 GW in 2020) and would need
investment to reach the planned 450 GW by 2030 [11] (Table 2 and Figure 3).massive investment
to reach the planned 450 GW by 2030 [11] (Table 2 and Figure 3).

Figure 3.
Figure 3. Wind
Wind energy
energy installed
installedcapacity
capacity(IC) (a)(a)
(IC) Current IC IC
Current (2018) andand
(2018) NDC/pledges/targets to
NDC/pledges/targets to
2030 and 2050 (b) Implied expansion of IC in different countries/regions under more ambitious
2030 and 2050 (b) Implied expansion of IC in different countries/regions under more ambitious wind
wind energy scenarios. Values are estimated from IRENA [27], IEA NZE [14], GWEC [11].
energy scenarios. Values are estimated from IRENA [27], IEA NZE [14], GWEC [11].

2.3.4. Future
2.3.4. Future Wind Energy ScenariosScenarios fromfrom Non-Governmental
Non-GovernmentalOrganization Organization
Implementation of
Implementation of the
the current
current NDCNDC would
wouldleadleadtotoonlyonlyaa3.6%
3.6%annual
annualincrease
increaseinin
deploymentofofwind
deployment wind energy
energy over
over 2015–2030
2015–2030 compared
compared to8.5%
to the the per
8.5% perrealized
year year realized
between
between
2010 2010 and
and 2016 [12].2016
Hence [12]. Henceagencies
several several agencies have proposed
have proposed wind energy windIC energy IC and
and electricity
electricity generation
generation targets thattargets thatambitious.
are more are more ambitious.
For example, the International Energy
For example, the International EnergyAgency
Agency(IEA)(IEA)Announced
AnnouncedPledges PledgesCase
Case (APC)
(APC)
is designed to keep GHG emissions down to 22 GtCO /y by 2050
is designed to keep GHG emissions down to 22 GtCO2 /y by 2050 and includes about
2 and includes about 12,000
TWh/yTWh/y
12,000 from wind fromenergy
wind by that date.
energy Under
by that date.theUnder
IEA Stated
the IEA Policies
Stated(STEPS) scenario,
Policies (STEPS)
scenario, offshore wind IC increases to about 180 GW in 2030, and 380 GWthe
offshore wind IC increases to about 180 GW in 2030, and 380 GW by 2050, while by IEA
2050,
Sustainable
while the IEA Development
SustainableScenario (SDS) increases
Development Scenario offshore wind IC offshore
(SDS) increases to 220 GW windin 2030
IC to
andGW
220 590 inGW by 2050
2030 [31].GW
and 590 GHG byemission
2050 [31]. reductions
GHG emissionunder the IEA Stated
reductions Policies
under Scenario
the IEA Stated
(STEPS)Scenario
Policies and the (STEPS)
more ambitious
and the moreIEA Announced
ambitious IEA Pledges Case (APC)
Announced Pledgesscenario
Case (APC)are
substantial but neither scenario limits ΔT < 1.5 °C or achieves◦ net-zero
scenario are substantial but neither scenario limits ∆T < 1.5 C or achieves net-zero global global emissions
[14]. Under[14].
emissions the IEA
Under net-zero
the IEAemissions
net-zeroscenario
emissionsfromscenario
the energy fromsector (IEA NZE)
the energy global
sector (IEA
energy-related and industrial process CO 2 emissions fall to around 21 GtCO2 in 2030 and
NZE) global energy-related and industrial process CO2 emissions fall to around 21 GtCO2
to2030
in net-zero
and toin net-zero
2050. This in scenario
2050. This requires
scenarioTPES to fallTPES
requires by 7% from
to fall by2020 to 2030
7% from and
2020 to for
2030
and for ~50% of energy supply to be in the form of electricity, 88% of which is derived
from wind and solar [14]. Under this ambitious scenario, annual wind energy IC additions
reach 390 GW/y by 2030 (from 114 GW/y in 2020), leading to around 8000 GW wind
IC by 2050 [14] (Figures 3 and 4). Since the GWEC scenario [11,16] is similar to IEA NZE
we assume that its impact can be inferred from those scenarios and call the scenario IEA
NZE/GWEC (Figure 4).
 ~50% of energy supply to be in the form of electricity, 88% of which is derived from wind
and solar [14]. Under this ambitious scenario, annual wind energy IC additions reach 390
GW/y by 2030 (from 114 GW/y in 2020), leading to around 8000 GW wind IC by 2050 [14]
Climate 2021, 9, 136 (Figures 3 and 4). Since the GWEC scenario [11,16] is similar to IEA NZE we assume that8 of 22
its impact can be inferred from those scenarios and call the scenario IEA NZE/GWEC
(Figure 4).

Globalscenarios
Figure 4. Global scenariosfor
forthe
thegrowth
growthofofwind
wind energy
energy IC.IC. Data
Data estimated
estimated from
from IEAIEA
NZE [14][14],
NZE ,
IRENA [27] and GWEC [11,16]
[11,16].. The
The solid
solid black line shows total wind
wind energy
energy IC
IC while
while offshore
offshoreIC
IC is
is shown
shown byby the
the bluebars
blue barsand
andonshore
onshoreIC ICby
bythe
thegrey
greybars.
bars.

Similar
Similar scenarios
scenarioswere werealso alsodeveloped
developedby byother
otherorganizations.
organizations.IRENA IRENA describes
describes a a
reference case based on on current
current plans
plans (global
(global emissions
emissionsfalling
fallingfromfromaround
around35 35GtCO
GtCO22/y /y in
in
20302030 to 33.1
to 33.1 GtCO GtCO 2/y2050)
2 /y in in 2050)
and aand a Renewable
Renewable EnergyEnergyRoadmap Roadmap
(REmap) (REmap) case
case designed
designed to keep the global temperature rise from pre-industrial
to keep the global temperature rise from pre-industrial levels (∆T) to less than 2 C with levels (ΔT) to less ◦
than 2
°C with emissions
emissions falling tofalling to 24.92 /y
24.9 GtCO GtCO 2/y inand
in 2030 20309.8 and 9.8 GtCO
GtCO 2 /y by 2/y2050
by 2050
[27].[27]. In REmap
In REmap wind
wind
energyenergy
generatesgenerates
35% of35% of electricity
electricity by 2050by 2050 [12,27].
[12,27]. The share Theofshare of wind-generated
wind-generated electricity
electricity
is expectedistoexpected
increase to fromincrease
4% in from
2020 to 4%21%in 2020
and 35% to 21% and and
in 2030 35%2050 in 2030 and 2050
globally, respec-
globally, respectively.
tively. Equivalent Equivalent country-specific
country-specific figures (2020, 2030 figures
and (2020,
2050) for 2030theand wind2050) for the
contribution
wind contribution
to total electricity to total
are; 11,electricity
37, 55 forare;the11,UK;37,4,5529,for51the
forUK; 4, 29,6,5128,
China; for46China;
for the6, 28,
USA;46 9,
for
24, the USA;
40 for the9,EU28
24, 40(EU27+UK);
for the EU284,(EU27+UK);
19, 23 for India4, 19, [27].
23 forREmap
India [27]. REmap projections
projections from IRENA
from IRENAIC
for onshore forwould
onshore IC would
realize 5044 GWrealize 5044 GW
onshore onshoreChina
(including (including
2000 China
GW, USA 2000840 GW, GW,
USA 840 GW, India 300 GW, Europe 483 GW) and 1000
India 300 GW, Europe 483 GW) and 1000 GW offshore [27] (Figure 3). IRENA indicates GW offshore [27] (Figure 3).
IRENA indicates
global annual newglobal annual new
IC including IC including
repowering (seerepowering
description (seeindescription
Section 4.3)inincreasing
Section
4.3)
fromincreasing
around 50from GW/y around
in 201850 GW/y
to 147 in 2018 in
GW/y to 2030,
147 GW/y in 2030,
stabilizing at 200stabilizing
GW/year at 200from
GW/year
2040–2050from [27].2040–2050 [27]. China’s
China’s onshore wind onshore
installedwindcapacityinstalled
would capacity
grow from would 205grow
GW fromin 2018
205 GW in2150
to almost 2018GW to almost
in 20502150[27].GWUSAin 2050
grew[27].
fromUSA 94 GWgrew in from
2018 94 GWGW
to 857 in 2018 to 857
by 2050 GW
[27] and
by 2050 from
Europe [27] and161 Europe
GW to 406 from GW 161byGW 2050to [27].
406 GW by 2050
In these [27]. Inthe
scenarios, these scenarios,
overall IC for the
wind
overall IC forexpand
energy could wind energy
over 10could
times expand
from currentover levels
10 times from generating
by 2050, current levels by 2050, of
the amounts
generating the amounts of low-carbon electricity needed to
low-carbon electricity needed to substantially contribute to climate change mitigation.substantially contribute to
climate change mitigation.
2.4. Emission Scenarios and Related Global Temperature Increases
2.4. Emission Scenarios and Related
The Intergovernmental PanelGlobal Temperature
on Climate Change Increases
(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report [32],
The Intergovernmental
suggests that limiting global Panel on Climate
temperature Changeabove
increase (IPCC) Fifth Assessment
pre-industrial levelsReport
(∆T) to
[32], suggests
less than ◦ C “would
1.5 that limiting global
requiretemperature increasein
major reductions above pre-industrial
greenhouse levels (ΔT)intoall
gas emissions
less than[33].
sectors” 1.5 Assuming
°C “wouldcumulative
require major reductions
emissions to 2017 in of
greenhouse
2200 GtCOgas emissions
2 this indicates in all
approx-
sectors” [33]. Assuming cumulative emissions to 2017 of ◦
2200 GtCO
imately 580 GtCO2 can be added prior to exceedance of 1.5 C warming [33]. The IPCC 2 this indicates
approximately
Fifth Assessment 580Report
GtCO2includes
can be added prioroftothe
a number exceedance of 1.5 Concentration
Representative °C warming [33]. The
Pathways
IPCC Fifth
(RCP) Assessment
[34] that Report
can be used includes how
to examine a number of the
scenarios ofRepresentative
GHG emissions Concentration
may influence
future climate states. These RCP scenarios are based on different Socio-Economic Pathways
and thus include assumptions about the transformation of the energy system. However,
none are as ambitious as the scenarios articulated by IRENA, IEA and increasingly by
national governments.
GHG concentrations initially grow under all four RCP [34] (Figure 5a) with the major
divergence between the scenarios and emission pathways occurring after 2040. There is an
approximately linear relationship between peak global mean temperature and cumulative
emissions of carbon (transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon, TCRE)
 influence future climate states. These RCP scenarios are based on different Socio-
Economic Pathways and thus include assumptions about the transformation of the energy
system. However, none are as ambitious as the scenarios articulated by IRENA, IEA and
increasingly by national governments.
GHG concentrations initially grow under all four RCP [34] (Figure 5a) with the major
Climate 2021, 9, 136 9 of 22
divergence between the scenarios and emission pathways occurring after 2040. There is
an approximately linear relationship between peak global mean temperature and
cumulative emissions of carbon (transient climate response to cumulative emissions of
carbon,we
which TCRE)
assumewhich
here we assume
to be 54 ◦to
∆T = 0.here be ΔT
C per = 0.
1000 54 °C
GtCO per
2 [3] 1000 falls
which GtCO 2 [3] which
within falls
the “likely
range” 0.2–0.7
within the ◦ C per
“likely 10000.2°–0.7
range” GtCO2 °C[33]per
(Figure 5b). 2 [33] (Figure 5b).
1000 GtCO

Figure 5.
Figure 5. Representative
Representative Concentration
Concentration Pathways
Pathways (RCP)(RCP) from the Intergovernmental
from the Intergovernmental Panel Panel on on
Climate Change
Climate Change Emissions
Emissions Scenarios [34].(a)
Scenarios [34]. (a)Cumulative
CumulativeCO CO22 emissions
emissions in in GtCO
GtCO2e relative to
2e relative to the
the
pre-industrial. The
pre-industrial. The RCP
RCPscenarios
scenariosX.X
X.Xrefer
refertotoa aforcing equivalent
forcing equivalenttoto
2.62.6
Wm Wm, −
−2 2.6
2 , to
2.64.5
toWm
−2 (total
4.5 Wm −2
bar height), 4.5 to 6.0 Wm- (total
2
2 bar height), and 6.0 to 8.5 Wm (total
−2
− 2 bar height) by the end of the
(total bar height), 4.5 to 6.0 Wm- (total bar height), and 6.0 to 8.5 Wm (total bar height) by the end
century. (b) Temperature increases relative to pre-industrial levels calculated using TCRE of ΔT =
of the century. (b) Temperature increases relative to pre-industrial levels calculated using TCRE of
0.54 °C per 1000 GtCO2.
∆T = 0.54 ◦ C per 1000 GtCO2 .
3. Results
3. Results
3.1. Wind Energy Global Climate Change Mitigation
Mitigation Potential
Potential
In this section, we present
present results
results for
for climate
climate change
change mitigation
mitigation computed
computed for for the
the
implementation of three wind energy scenarios to
implementation of three wind energy scenarios to 2050 based 2050 based on Current National Pledges
Current National Pledges
(NDC) (Figure 3a), IRENA and IEA IEA NZE
NZE andand their
their impact
impact GHGGHG emissions
emissions and and related
related
global temperature
temperaturechanges
changesfromfrompre-industrial
pre-industrial levels (∆T)
levels (Figure
(ΔT) 5). 5).
(Figure In order to do
In order to so
dowe
so
invoke several
we invoke assumptions:
several assumptions:
•• We
We use
use the
the IPCC
IPCC emissions
emissions scenarios
scenarios toto provide
provide total
total cumulative
cumulative GHGGHG emissions
emissions to to
2100
2100 for
for aa number
number of of different
different RCPs
RCPs [33].
[33]. Note,
Note, the
the current
current emissions
emissions trajectory
trajectory is is
closest
closest to
to RCP
RCP 8.5
8.5 [35].
[35].
•• To
To avoid
avoid double counting,
double GHG emission
counting, reductions
GHG emission associated associated
reductions with the implementa-
with the
tion of wind energy in the IPCC scenarios are removed
implementation of wind energy in the IPCC scenarios are removed as in [3] and [5].
as inThis
[3] process
and [5].
is shown
This as IPCC
process minus
is shown as wind
IPCCin Figure
minus 6. Assumptions
wind regarding theregarding
in Figure 6. Assumptions wind energy the
IC
windunder each
energy ICIPCC
underscenario
each IPCC (RCP 2.6, 4.5,
scenario 6.0 and
(RCP 8.5)6.0
2.6, 4.5, areand
estimated
8.5) are to avoid 2.5,
estimated to
2.7, 0.74 and 1.5 GtCO /y, respectively. The more aggressive wind
avoid 2.5, 2.7, 0.74 and 1.5 GtCO2e/y, respectively. The more aggressive wind energy
2e energy expansion
scenarios are then implemented in each RCP to generate new estimates of global CO2e
emissions (Figure 6).
• To estimate avoided emissions, it is assumed that wind energy replaces electricity
generation that is typified by the USA energy mix in 2013 in terms of emissions of
carbon dioxide equivalent per unit of electricity produced. Thus the avoided emissions
of CO2e are around 0.64 kg/kWh or 0.64 mt/TWh [29].
• To convert wind energy IC in GW to electricity generation in TWh, wind energy
capacity factors (CF) are used. CF for onshore wind turbines is currently 34% and is
expected to increase for onshore wind turbines to over 42% by 2030 and 45% by 2050.
Equivalent values for wind turbines deployed offshore are currently 43%, increasing
to over 45% by 2030 and to over 50% by 2050 [27].
 generation that is typified by the USA energy mix in 2013 in terms of emissions of
carbon dioxide equivalent per unit of electricity produced. Thus the avoided
emissions of CO2e are around 0.64 kg/kWh or 0.64 mt/TWh [29].
• To convert wind energy IC in GW to electricity generation in TWh, wind energy
Climate 2021, 9, 136 capacity factors (CF) are used. CF for onshore wind turbines is currently 34% and10isof 22
expected to increase for onshore wind turbines to over 42% by 2030 and 45% by 2050.
Equivalent values for wind turbines deployed offshore are currently 43%, increasing
to over 45% by 2030 and to over 50% by 2050 [27].
•• The annual rate of
annual rate of increase
increaseininwind
windenergy
energyICICinin2050
2050
is is assumed
assumed to to continue
continue over
over
2051–2100.

Figure 6. Projections of cumulative CO2e emissions from the IPCC Representative Concentration
Figure 6. Projections of cumulative CO2e emissions from the IPCC Representative Concentration
Pathways [33] (IPCC RCP), minus the current contribution from wind energy (IPCC-wind). The
Pathways
right axis [33] (IPCCthe
indicates RCP), minus the
associated current
global contribution
temperature from wind
increase aboveenergy (IPCC-wind).
pre-industrial levels.The
Theright
axis indicates
scenarios for the associated
current pledges global
and temperature increase
targets (NDC), IRENAabove
andpre-industrial
IEA NZE/GWEC levels.
use The scenarios
avoided
emissions
for currentfrom wind
pledges energy
and only
targets with IRENA
(NDC), IPCC projected
and IEAemissions.
NZE/GWEC The use
goalavoided
of the Paris Climate
emissions from
Agreement
wind energyisonly
to limit
with ΔTIPCCto projected
well below 2 °C, preferably
emissions. The goaltoof1.5
the°C [2] Climate
Paris which isAgreement
indicated by the
is to limit
horizontal
∆T to well bar in yellow.
below 2 ◦ C, preferably to 1.5 ◦ C [2] which is indicated by the horizontal bar in yellow.

Because GHG
Because GHG accumulate
accumulateininthetheatmosphere
atmosphereandandhave
havelifetimes of of
lifetimes manymanyyears, andand
years,
wind energy expansion is also incremental through time, implementation
wind energy expansion is also incremental through time, implementation of expanded of expanded
wind energy
wind energyscenarios
scenarioshas
hasonly
onlyaavery
verysmall
smallimpact
impacton
onnear-term
near-termcumulative
cumulativeemissions
emissionsand
and climate
climate forcing
forcing butincreasing
but has has increasing influence
influence on climate
on climate futures
futures byend
by the the of
end
theofcentury.
the
century.
Based onBased onemissions
current current emissions and the
and the IPCC IPCC pathway
RCP8.5 RCP8.5 pathway
in whichinTPES
which andTPES and
associated
associated continue
emissions grow, ∆T to
emissionsto continue grow,remain
cannot ΔT cannot 2 ◦ C (Figure
below remain below6).2Implementing
°C (Figure 6).any
of the wind energy expansion scenarios (NDC, IREA and IEA NZE) in this IPCC RCP
all fail to prevent global temperature rises above 2 ◦ C in <30 years (Figure 6). However,
the longer-term use of the more advanced wind energy scenarios makes an important
contribution to the annual and cumulative GHG emissions and resulting climate forcing.
The most aggressive deployment scenario reduces CO2 emissions by around 5 GtCO2e /y
by 2030 and by over 10 GtCO2e /y by 2050 [14]. Employing the most ambitious wind energy
scenarios where installed wind energy capacity is more than 10 times the present value by
2050 will reduce ∆T by up to 0.7–0.8 ◦ C. Even adopting wind energy at the level of current
pledges will lower ∆T by 0.3–0.4 ◦ C at the end of the century. In both more moderate
emission scenarios where significant action is undertaken to reduce GHG emissions (IPCC
RCP 6.0 and 4.5), ∆T passes the 2 ◦ C threshold within 30–50 years, unless further action is
taken, e.g., as here by a more rapid increase in renewable energy in the IEA NZE/GWEC
scenarios. Taking the most ambitious GHG emission reduction pathway (RCP2.6) with
Climate 2021, 9, 136 11 of 22

the IEA NZE/GWEC wind energy scenario can reduce ∆T to well below 1.5–2 ◦ C and
achieve even less warming by the end of the twenty-first century. However, this pathway
requires urgent and significant lifestyle changes substantially beyond the decarbonization
of energy supply.

3.2. Wind Energy Impact on Regional GHG Emissions

As expressed above, four countries/areas; China, Europe (EU plus UK), the USA
and India are critically important to historical and future global GHG emissions. In this
section, we describe possible impacts from achieving Nationally Determined Contributions
(NDC) (current pledges) and implementing IRENA regionally-discretized wind energy
scenarios [27] on impact national/regional GHG emissions and contextualize those in the
historical emissions and post-COVID-19 current policies.
Over the last three decades, these countries and the EU have shown markedly different
trajectories in terms of energy-related GHG emissions, with increases in China and India but
declines in EU+UK and fairly constant (but varying) CO2e emissions in the USA (Figure 7).
The EU plus UK already have net zero emissions targets that include a large contribution
from wind energy (and other renewables) which are nearly equivalent to projections in
the IRENA advanced scenarios. The USA has high current CO2 per capita emissions from
energy but is anticipating declines in GHG emissions under the post-COVID-19 current
policies (Figure 7, Table 3). The Chinese government is discussing net zero emissions
by 2060 but likely would benefit from a more aggressive wind energy scenario. India
has committed to greatly expanding the use of wind energy. Thus, these four countries
that currently have a relatively large proportion of global GHG emissions are, to varying
degrees, also committing to future wind energy development that will substantially reduce
emissions by 2030 and 2050, assuming that these pledges are fulfilled.

Table 3. Energy-related emissions (GtCO2 ) in 2018, plus estimated avoided emissions in that year resulting from current
use of wind energy (GtCO2 ) plus projections of avoided emissions in 2030 and 2050 that would arise in the current pledges
from each country/area were realized in full and then if those pledges were realized but the full scenario of wind expansion
from IRENA is also achieved. The avoided emissions from wind energy electricity generation are estimated by assuming
emissions from the current energy mix of 0.64 MtCO2 per TWh.

Annual Avoided
Energy-Related
Emissions from Annual Avoided Emissions from Annual Avoided Emissions from
CO2 Emissions
Current Wind IC Current Pledges (NDC) NDC + IRENA Wind Scenario
(GtCO2 ) [6]
(GtCO2 )
Year 2018 2018 2030 2050 2030 2050
Country/area
China 9.6 0.40 1.6 5.8 2.0 6.1
EU+UK 3.1 0.36 0.48 2.0 0.70 1.8
USA 4.9 0.18 0.50 0.94 0.64 3.4
India 2.3 0.07 0.19 1.0 0.45 0.93
ROW 14 0.11 0.17 0.33 0.96 2.8
Total 34 1.1 2.9 10 4.8 15
Climate 2021, 9, 136 12 of 22
Climate 2021, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 23

Figure7.7.Annual
Figure Annualglobal
globalGHG
GHGemissions
emissions(a)(a)and
andemissions
emissionsby
bycountry/area
country/area(b–e)
(b–e)(in
(inGtCO
GtCO2e2e).). NB.
NB. Axes
Axes differ
differ in
in each
each panel,
panel,
greygrid
grey gridlines
linesindicate
indicate 11 GtCO
GtCO2e 2e per
per year
yearfor
forcomparison.
comparison.Solid
Solidlines
linesshow
showhistorical
historicalemissions
emissions toto2016 (global)
2016 (global) oror
2018 by
2018
country/area
by country/area [36] . Shaded
[36]. Shadedareas
areasfrom
from2016/2018
2016/2018toto2030
2030show
show high/low
high/lowprojections
projections based post-COVID-19 current
based on post-COVID-19 current
policies.Dashed
policies. Dashedlines
linesindicate
indicateemissions
emissions minus
minus wind
wind energy
energy contributions
contributions based
based on current
on current pledges
pledges and targets
and targets from from
[36].
[36]. Dotted lines show emissions minus wind energy contributions estimated from IRENA [27] . Carbon
Dotted lines show emissions minus wind energy contributions estimated from IRENA [27]. Carbon emissions from [36]. emissions from
[36].
Climate 2021, 9, 136 13 of 22

The analysis of future energy-related GHG emissions is based on the following method-
ology and assumptions:
• Historical and near-term future emissions to 2030 are based on estimates provided by
the Carbon Tracker think-tank (https://carbontracker.org/ Date of access 30 July 2021)
and include high-low envelopes derived from post-COVID-19 current policies [36].
• For dates after 2030, we compute avoided GHG emissions that would be realized if the
given country/area were to enact in full their pledges (NDC) or enact those pledges
plus any additional impact from the IRENA country-specific scenario projections for
expansion of wind energy installed capacity and electricity generation above what is
codified in the NDC. To avoid double-counting in the NDC plus IRENA calculations
for the USA and China only the excess wind energy IC from IRENA (above the NDC)
are included. Equally, because the IRENA region/country projections for wind energy
in the EU+UK and India are slightly below those noted in the NDC the NDC+IRENA
calculation is performed using the wind energy IC expansion from IRENA and not
the more ambitious NDC.
• To estimate avoided emissions, it is assumed that wind energy replaces electricity
generation that is typified by the USA energy mix in 2013 in terms of emissions of
carbon dioxide equivalent per unit of electricity produced. Thus the avoided emissions
of CO2e are ~0.64 kg/kWh or 0.64 Mt/TWh [29].
In the short-term (to 2030), under post-COVID-19 country/EU policies, GHG emis-
sions are projected to increase or remain similar to 2018 values in the EU+UK and the USA
(Figure 7). The rate of increase in GHG emissions from China is expected to slow and then
stop increasing, while in the near term, emissions from India are projected to continue to
increase. After 2030 realizing NDC would result in marked declines in GHG and use of the
IRENA scenario for the USA would markedly enhance emission reductions from those in
the NDC (Table 3 and Figure 7).
Using the IRENA scenario [27], the four countries/area (USA, Europe, China and
India) would need to expand capacity by over 4000 GW and the rest of the world would
need to commit to developing over 1000 GW of on- and off-shore wind to bring about GHG
reductions of more than 10 GtCO2 per year by 2050. This would constitute an important
part of the transition to a lower-carbon energy future.

3.3. Uncertainties in the Modeling

Estimating the potential contribution of wind energy to climate change mitigation
requires a range of assumptions regarding the socioeconomic, energy and climate systems.
The projections thus include both socio-economic uncertainties and physical modeling
uncertainties which are described below.
The global COVID-19 pandemic presents a dramatic example of the uncertainty
in modeling future GHG emissions. There was an unprecedented 5.8% decline in CO2
emissions in 2020 which is expected to rebound to close to 2019 levels in 2021 [14]. The IPCC
emission scenarios are designed to capture some of the uncertainty in projecting changes
in socioeconomic conditions and population, GHG emissions and climate response [34].
The IPCC scenarios considered here include a wide range of projections by the end of
the century; from annual emissions of −3.4 GtCO2e in RCP2.5 to over 105 GtCO2e in
RCP8.5. We consider wind energy IC expansion scenarios that also encompass a range of
possibilities that would lead to avoided GHG emissions of ~4–5 GtCO2e by 2030, increasing
to around 10 GtCO2e in 2050 under current pledges to over 20 GtCO2e for the more
advanced expansion scenarios.
Key uncertainties in the climate change mitigation potentials presented in this work
derive from:
• The use of capacity factors (CF) for on- and off-shore wind energy describes the
efficiency of electrical power production. Actual CF are dictated by physical variables
such as the wind speed probability distribution at a given location and also to the
physical dimensions of installed wind turbines (such as hub height and rotor diameter
Climate 2021, 9, 136 14 of 22

that tend to increase over time [37]). Further, wind turbine performance can decline
over time as the technology ages [38]. CF are also determined by operational factors
such as curtailment for grid management [39].
• Use of a fixed factor for avoided emissions of CO2e of 0.64 kg/kWh when it is likely
that these vary both by region and over time [29].
• Using current projections and pipelines assumes that plans and targets for wind
energy deployment will be realized. After 2030, uncertainty increases and by 2050
there is no available information regarding future expansion rates so it is assumed
here that annual wind energy deployments continue at the level achieved in 2050.
Based on the possibility that wind energy can substantially contribute to both regional
and global emissions reductions and to achieving the overall global plan of meeting the
Paris Agreement, in the next section we examine whether there are barriers to this large-
scale expansion of wind energy.

4. Are There Barriers to Wind Energy Expansion?

4.1. The Available Wind Resource under Climate Change
The available global wind resource has at least the potential to meet current world
electricity demand [5]. The use of wind energy for electricity generation in specific regions
with high current and substantial projections of increased wind energy penetration is also
not limited by the resource. The technically feasible resource is estimated to be about ten
times the current demand in both Europe (potential ~33,000 TWh/y) [26] and the USA
(potential ~49,700 TWh/y) [29].
As a weather-dependent renewable energy source, it is possible that global climate
non-stationarity may lead to changes in that resource [40,41]. Any such changes are likely
to vary by region, rather than being universal increases or decreases [5,42]. It will be
imposed on low-frequency variability in wind resources (years to decades) [43–45] that
derives primarily from the influence of multiple internal climate modes (atmospheric
modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific North American index (PNA),
and Arctic Oscillation (AO) or Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and oceanic modes such
as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) on cyclone frequency/intensity/tracking [46–48]. For
example, the extended period of low electricity generation in the western USA during the
first quarter of 2015 was linked to interactions between ENSO, PDO and the PNA [49]
and periods of high wind generation in Northern Europe are linked to the occurrence of
positive phase NAO [48].
Reduced latitudinal temperature gradients resulting from increased GHG concentra-
tions may also change wind resources via changes in cyclone frequency [50], intensity [51],
and/or tracks [52], and/or enhanced atmospheric water vapor and convective instability
may impact the intensity of some meso- to synoptic-scale systems [53]. However, decon-
voluting any change from current interannual to interdecadal variability is difficult [54],
particularly given internal climate modes are themselves impacted by climate change [55].
Assessment of wind speed variability on time and spatial scales of relevance to wind
energy continues to be hampered by the lack of long-term high-quality wind speeds at
wind turbine hub-heights which are now an average of 89 m for onshore, 103 m for offshore
and increasing [56]. Few in situ measurements at heights of approx. 100 m a.g.l. exist
in the public domain [57], and while some reanalysis products now report wind speeds
at 100 m a.g.l. (e.g., ERA5) they are spatially averaged (in the case of ERA5 the output is
at 30 km by 30 km, but naturally the effective length scale is much larger) [58], do not
represent all of the processes that impact flow regimes (e.g., terrain channeling) and are
subject to inaccuracies deriving from factors such as excessive terrain drag [49]. Direct
wind speed measurements are generally taken at 10 m a.g.l. where local terrain and barriers
substantially influence the flow characteristics [59], changes in land use land cover change
around observational stations can lead to time-varying drag [60], historical records are
Climate 2021, 9, 136 15 of 22

fractured and/or subject to inhomogeneities [61–63] and reanalysis products exhibit notable
inconsistencies between the different products and relative to in situ measurements [63,64].
CMIP6 generation global Earth System Models (ESM) exhibit continuing improve-
ments in terms of the representation of key climate modes responsible for low-frequency
variability in wind resources [65] but are applied at effective scales that far exceed those
that dictate wind resources and representation of cyclone climates, while improving, re-
mains imperfect [66]. Use of direct output (e.g., daily mean or once daily wind speeds)
from ESM for wind energy applications remains highly undesirable. Use of dynamical
(i.e., application of regional models) [67,68] or statistical downscaling [44,69] is preferable
in order to represent more fully the scales of motion responsible for dictating resource and
resource variability, but naturally, projections of future resources from such experiments
remain contingent on the sources of the lateral boundary conditions/predictor suites as
provided by the ESM [5].
A summary of current research on the forcing of near-surface wind climates under
greenhouse gas-induced warming can be found in [5] and is briefly summarized below:
1. The majority of research on the causes of wind climate variability is focused on high
wind resource/high deployment areas of Europe and/or North America.
2. The wind energy industry works on timescales of decades relevant to current and
planned wind farm lifetimes averaging close to 30 years [70] whereas the majority of
climate change studies consider long time scales (i.e., most have considered periods at
the end of the current century) where the climate change signal may be more evident.
3. Variability in wind resource projections for a given region arises from the global and
regional model applied, or predictors to statistical downscaling, resolution of the
model, and specific climate forcing scenario. Differences in the mean future wind
resource from the current manifestation appear to be of small magnitude and of
similar/smaller magnitudes than current inter-annual variability.
4. There may not be an overall increase or decrease in wind speeds but rather regional
variations which may link to storm track changes. For example, research focused
on Europe suggests that wind resources in the north may slightly increase linked to
small declines in the Mediterranean. Similarly, there may be changes in the timing of
the resource such as increases in winter wind speeds and small declines in summer.
Results from downscaling experiments indicate some evidence for increasing resource
magnitudes over northern Europe and amplification of the seasonal cycle with the
higher resource in winter and lower in the summer, declines over southern Europe
(including the Mediterranean). In the USA, wind resources in the southern Great
Plains are projected to increase while there is some evidence of declines in the more
complex terrain in the western USA [5].
Making resource projections under climate non-stationarity remains challenging and
further work is certainly warranted.

4.2. Costs
Much of the expansion of wind energy IC in the near term is projected to occur in the
form of wind turbines deployed onshore (Figure 4) and thus will likely employ existing
technology and be subject to a relatively low levelized cost of energy (LCoE). Expansion of
the scale of offshore deployments may require additional technological advances and may
be associated with higher LCoE.
The cost of onshore wind energy is now lower than for most generation types and is,
therefore, an incentive rather than a barrier. The cost of electricity generated from wind
turbines deployed onshore is below USD 40/MWh in the USA and Europe and below
USD 60/MWh in Asia [56]. These costs have declined markedly over the last decade are
expected to continue to decrease [56]. Installed costs for onshore wind are expected to drop
to USD 0.8–1.3 million per MW of IC (m/MW) and USD 0.65–1.0 million by 2030 from
USD 1.5 m/MW in 2018 [27]. Recent projections based on an expert elicitation indicate cost
reductions (relative to 2018) of 37% for offshore wind by 2050 [56].
Climate 2021, 9, 136 16 of 22

The current levelized cost of energy (LCoE) expressed per Mega-Watt hour of electric-
ity generation (MWh) from offshore wind is estimated to be USD ~100/MWh, with a range
of about USD ± 50/MWh [71]. Specific country costs have a range of USD 106–171/MWh
that depend on physical parameters (distance to the coast, water depth, etc.) as well as
financing structure [72]. The cost of offshore wind energy costs is expected to decline to
less than USD 50/MWh in all regions by 2050 [56].
Much of the offshore wind resource lies in water depths greater than 50–60 m where
floating offshore wind energy is required. In 2020, 66 MW of floating wind IC are installed,
19 MW in Japan and the remainder in Europe [16]. According to some estimates; 80% of
the resource in Europe, 58% in the USA [71] and 60% in China and 80% in Japan [27] will
require the use of floating wind turbines. A capacity of 3–19 GW of floating offshore wind
by 2030 is anticipated, depending on the relative cost [16] or as much as 5–30 GW, increasing
to 1000 GW by 2050 [27]. Costs are currently estimated at above USD 175/MWh and are
anticipated to fall below USD 70/MWh by 2030 [71] or in the range of USD 50–80 MWh by
2050 [56].
This summary thus suggests that expansion of wind energy installed capacity will
require substantial capital investment and is likely to generate significant financial returns.

4.3. Repowering and Recycling

Wind turbine lifetimes are now close to 30 years [70]. Nevertheless, many wind
turbines will either reach the end of their useful life before 2050 (50% in Europe by 2030 [21],
30% in the USA by the end of 2020 [73]) and be decommissioned or retrofitted. Retrofitting
is cost-effective because it allows the continued use of infrastructure (grid connections,
foundations, access roads). This retrofitting usually involves repowering where wind
turbines are altered/replaced with those with increased rotor diameter or hub-height [37]
leading to large increments in rated power. Repowering can also involve the replacement
of the nacelle with no change in the tower or rotor. This can increase power output by up
to 16% [21]. Repowering existing sites is expected to be an important part of future wind
energy capacity [74,75]. In Europe, from a total of 38 GW of onshore wind capacity ending
operational life over the next five years, nearly 29 GW will undergo lifetime extension and
2.4 GW be repowered [28]. In 2019, nearly 3 GW of repowering was undertaken in the
USA [37]. In general, repowering increases both IC and capacity factors.
About 85–90% of a wind turbine can already be recycled (steel, cement, copper, etc.),
and full lifecycle assessment suggests that further improvements can be made, particularly
for the capital infrastructure which accounts for most of the GHG emissions and hence cli-
mate change impacts [9]. The use of glass fiber and resin for wind turbine blades has made
recycling more challenging [76]. The European wind industry has proposed on Europe-
wide ban on disposing of wind turbine blades via landfill [77] and is working on blade
recycling technologies that include materials for new blades or industrial applications [78].

4.4. Materials, Manufacturing, Legal and Workforce Needs

As described herein, Europe has plans to expand by 10–20 times offshore wind
current capacity reaching between 230 and 450 GW by 2050 [79]. The USA has a goal of
30 GW of installed capacity by 2030 [17] and the UK plans 40 GW [17]. Asia’s offshore
capacity is expected to increase rapidly with twice as much investment as Europe in
offshore wind annually to 2030, increasing to 3.5 times by 2050 [27]. Enactment of the
IEA NZE by 2030 will require annual installation rates of wind energy that are about
twice those in 2020 [11]. The implication is that significant new supply chains will need to
emerge, and that deployment and manufacturing capability expansion is needed. Annual
manufacturing and assembly capacity in the USA in 2018 was ~15 GW for nacelles, ~9.2 GW
for blades and ~8.9 GW for towers in 2018 [27]. Thus, considerable investment in workforce
development and manufacturing would be needed to install more than the current rate of
~16 GW per year. Similarly in Europe, to meet the expected level of the annual additional
Climate 2021, 9, 136 17 of 22

deployment 27 GW is needed up from the current 15 GW requiring significant expansion

of manufacturing and deployment capacity [79].
The expansion of wind energy deployment and by association wind turbine manufac-
ture, in turn, relies on substantial increases in the use of raw materials. Over 400 tonnes
of concrete is required per 1 MW of installed onshore wind or 400 tonnes of steel per
1 MW offshore wind installed using current technology [27]. Studies estimating the materi-
als/resources needed for such expansion of the wind energy industry have indicated some
potential bottlenecks such as copper and dysprosium [80,81].
Human resources will also be needed. IRENA estimates nearly 5 million jobs would
be created by 2050, in addition to over 1 million positions in wind energy today [27].
In summary, there are remaining technical and social barriers to large-scale wind
energy deployment [11,82]. Policy and technical needs to enable large-scale wind energy
expansion are discussed further in [26,27]. In addition to the manufacturing scaling-up
described above, other issues include permitting leading to undersubscribed auctions in
Europe and could lead to less than 80 GW rather than 105 GW being installed in Europe to
2025 [28]. The complexity of the legal framework for offshore wind development, as well as
the supply chain and marine logistics, were also described as additional risks for the USA
and European markets [71,79]. In the USA, all of the major transmission system operators
have backlogs amounting to around 600 MW in terms of interconnections to the grid [30].
Some estimates indicate Europe needs six times the current rate of grid installation if the
green deal targets are to be met [79].

5. Discussion and Conclusions

The global population is rising at 1.1%/yr [83] and the use of TPES and electricity
continue to rise at annualized rates of 3.7% and 7.4%, respectively [7]. Atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations passed 410 ppm in 2019 [84] and globally we emit nearly 46 billion
tonnes of greenhouse gases (measured in carbon dioxide equivalents, CO2e ) each year [85].
A substantial fraction of those GHG emissions derives from the energy sector. These trends
raise the specter of unprecedented and uncontrolled rises in global air temperatures and
associated climate change risks. This has prompted individual countries and economic
zones to sign the Paris climate agreement and develop strategies to decarbonize their
energy systems, and in some cases to propose net-zero emissions by 2050. In parallel, major
global organizations such as the International Energy Agency have advanced technically
feasible projections for expansion of renewable energy and electrification of the energy
system. One of the most mature and readily scalable renewable electricity generation
technologies is wind energy. It has seen rapid expansion and substantial cost reductions
during the last decades and is a key lynchpin in many national and global strategies for
decarbonization of the energy supply.
Here we document the historical growth of the wind energy industry, articulate pro-
jections for increased installed capacity from different agencies and address the questions;
if the projections for this individual renewable energy technology—wind energy—were to
be realized what climate change mitigation could be achieved? How will/could different
countries and regions contribute to that mitigation? Are there clear barriers to realizing the
required expansion of wind energy installed capacity?
Much of this historical expansion and global wind energy installations are focused on
China, the US, and the European Union plus the United Kingdom. These countries are also
likely to be the focus on the near-term expansion of installed capacity. For example, China
has current wind energy installed capacity (end of 2020) of 288 GW and plans to deploy an
additional 50 GW annually until 2025, subsequently increasing to 60 GW/yr.
A number of organizations have developed global growth scenarios for wind energy
installed capacity. Projections of wind energy installed capacity at the end of 2050 from
IRENA, IEA NZE and GWEC range from approximately 5000 GW to approximately
8200 GW. The projections at the global scale from IRENA of technically feasible expansion
of the wind energy industry, are below those issued by the IEA NZE and GWEC but include
Climate 2021, 9, 136 18 of 22

information at the national level. Replacing the wind energy contributions from the IPCC
RCP with the IRENA projections for wind and using the following key assumptions:
• An electricity generation efficiency from onshore wind that increases from 34% to
45% by 2050 and for the offshore wind of 43% increasing to 50% by 2050.
• The wind energy-derived electricity displaces the mean current USA generation
supply in terms of CO2 emission per TWh of electricity.
• The transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon is 0.54 ◦ C per
1000 GtCO2 .
The climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 would be 0.3–0.8 ◦ C depend-
ing on the RCP emissions scenario.
If the USA achieves its specified NDC, annual GtCO2e emissions will decline from
over 6.3 GtCO2e in 2020 to 5 GtCO2e by 2050. However, if they were to achieve additional
electrification of industry and transportation and the regional IRENA goal for wind energy
expansion, it may be possible to reduce national greenhouse gas emission by 2050 to below
3 GtCO2e . Countries that are still developing their emissions reductions strategy such
as the USA can greatly increase the proportion of wind energy in their energy portfolio
leading to an even more dramatic reduction of GHG emissions.
An earlier analysis of the wind energy climate change mitigation potential based on the
status in 2013 [3] showed that for the most ambitious wind energy expansion plan available
at that time (GWEC-Advanced) proposed wind energy IC would increase from 282 GW to
~4800 GW so that wind energy generates ~30% of global electricity supply (~12,000 TWh/y).
This was estimated to decrease cumulative CO2 emissions to 2050 by around 600 GtCO2 .
Depending on the RCP followed, implementing this wind energy expansion scenario was
found to reduce likely global temperature increase at 2100 compared to the pre-industrial
by ~0.3 ◦ C and although passing the warming threshold of ∆T = 1.5 ◦ C is inevitable it is
delayed by up to 6 years.
As of 2021, wind turbines are now deployed in 90 countries and, depending on the
precise source of information, generate ~6–7% of global electricity. Between 2012 and
2021 there was the continued expansion of wind energy IC from 282 GW to 742 GW and
wind energy IC growing at an annualized rate of ~14%. This expansion is almost equal to
achieving the original GWEC Advanced scenario. The new projections for wind energy
expansion are even more ambitious than those available in 2013. However, cumulative
GHG emissions grow each year. The IPCC report released in 2021 indicated cumulative
CO2 emissions are already at 2390 ± 240 GtCO2 , and the remaining carbon budget is in
the range 300–2300 GtCO2 [86]. There remains no expectation of a reduction in energy
demand prior to 2050. As shown here, much more ambitious plans are now required to
delay, and potentially avoid the warming threshold of ∆T = 1.5–2 ◦ C. Advanced wind
energy scenarios involving >6000 GW of installed capacity by 2050 can help to provide
low carbon electricity and reduce CO2 emissions by up to 15 GtCO2 per year, but even
these plans will be insufficient to avoid the 1.5 ◦ C warming threshold without reductions
in energy use and GHG emissions from other sectors. Even with the enactment of the most
ambitious wind energy expansion scenario, if other aspects of the future world continue to
follow the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, the ∆T = 2 ◦ C threshold will be passed in the 2040s. If
expanded wind energy is coupled with the RCP4.5 scenario then passing the ∆T = 2 ◦ C
threshold would be entirely avoided.
While the scale of anthropogenic climate change is daunting, research presented herein
illustrates that wind energy can substantially reduce emissions of greenhouse gases at the
national and global scale and measurably reduce the amount of temperature increase. The
investment needed to achieve the required expansion of the wind energy installed capacity
is substantial but the LCoE from wind is competitive, and a substantial fraction of IC
increases may be achieved via repowering and thus require no additional land. Substantial
upscaling of manufacturing and installation capacity is required, streamlining of permitting
processes would greatly facilitate the expansion of renewable energy penetration of the
electricity supply and system-wide electrification is essential.
Climate 2021, 9, 136 19 of 22

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, methodology, analysis, resources, R.J.B. and S.C.P. Writing—
original draft preparation, R.J.B.; writing—review and editing, S.C.P. Both authors have read and
agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE), grant numbers (DE-
SC0016605).
Data Availability Statement: Data used herein are publicly available and sources are cited with each
figure and table.
Acknowledgments: We would like to acknowledge the academic membership provided by the
Global Wind Energy Council.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Nomenclature

APC Announced Pledges Case

bcm gas Billion cubic meters of natural gas
Capacity Factors. CF measures the efficiency of electricity production from wind
turbines. They are the ratio of the amount of power produced normalized by the
CF
potential power produced if all wind turbines run at their rated capacity
(usually annual).
Carbon dioxide. GtCO2 indicates Giga-tonnes (i.e., 109 tonnes) of
CO2
carbon dioxide.
Carbon dioxide equivalents. CO2e for gas are computed by their mass emissions
CO2e by their “global warming potential” (GWP) which represents the warming
impacts from that gas compared to CO2 over some time horizon.
EU27 27 countries that comprise the European Union (EU)
EU28 27 countries that comprise the European Union (EU) plus the UK
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse gases
GW GigaWatts (109 Watts (Joules per second))
GWEC Global Wind Energy Council
Installed Capacity. This is a measure of the total power production (in Watts or
IC GW) that could be produced from the wind turbine fleet if all were operating at
peak power production (i.e., their rated of nameplate capacity).
IEA International Energy Agency
IEA NZE International Energy Agency Net Zero Emissions scenario
IEA STEPS International Energy Agency Stated Policies scenario
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report
IPCC-RCP
Representative Concentration Pathways
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency
kWh kilo-Watt hour
LCoE Levelized Cost of Energy
Mtoe Million tonnes of oil equivalent
NDC Nationally Determined Contributions
TPES Total Primary Energy Supply
TCRE Transient Climate Response to cumulative Emissions of carbon
TWh Terra-Watt hours
UNFCCC United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change

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