Lecture 3 - Decision Making in Management
Lecture 3 - Decision Making in Management
Lecture 3 - Decision Making in Management
1. Establishing objectives
2. Classifying and prioritizing objectives
3. Developing selection criteria
4. Identifying alternatives
5. Evaluating alternatives against the selection criteria
6. Choosing the alternative that best satisfies the selection criteria
7. Implementing the decision
Analysis of Alternatives
A major part of decision making involves the analysis of a defined set of
alternatives against selection criteria. These criteria usually include costs and
benefits, advantages and disadvantages, and alignment with preferences. For
example, when choosing a place to establish a new business, the criteria might
include rental costs, availability of skilled labor, access to transportation and means
of distribution, and proximity to customers. Based on the relative importance of these
factors, a business owner makes a decision that best meets the criteria.
The decision maker may face a problem when trying to evaluate alternatives in
terms of their strengths and weaknesses. This can be especially challenging when
there are many factors to consider. Time limits and personal emotions also play a role
in the process of choosing between alternatives. Greater deliberation and information
gathering often takes additional time, and decision makers often must choose before
they feel fully prepared. In addition, the more that is at stake the more emotions are
likely to come into play, and this can distort one's judgment.
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Lecture 3. Decision Making in Management
2. Decision-Making Styles
Managers and leaders adopt different styles of decision making based on their
personality, the situation they face, the culture of the organization, characteristics of
the people they are working with, and the nature of the decision itself. There are five
essential styles of decision making:
Autocratic: The group leader solves the problem using the information he
possesses. He does not consult with anyone else or seek information in any form.
This style assumes that the leader has sufficient information to examine all the
relevant options and make an effective decision.
Negotiation: The leader explains the situation to the group or individual and
provides the relevant information. Together they attempt to reconcile differences and
negotiate a solution that is acceptable to all parties. The leader may consult with
others before the meeting in order to prepare his case and generate alternatives that
are acceptable to everyone involved.
Delegation: Responsibility and authority for making the decision are given to
the group or individual. The leader provides all the relevant information that he
possesses. The leader's role then becomes that of facilitator or guide, but he does not
attempt to force his opinions on the group. He should be prepared to accept and
implement the proposed solution.
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Lecture 3. Decision Making in Management
The approach follows a sequential and formal path of activities. This path
includes:
1. Formulating a goal(s)
2. Identifying the criteria for making the decision
3. Identifying alternatives
4. Performing analysis
5. Making a final decision.
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Lecture 3. Decision Making in Management
similar objects. They will then compare prices (or costs). In general, people will
choose the object that provides the greatest reward at the lowest cost.
People rarely have full (or perfect) information. For example, the
information might not be available, the person might not be able to access
it, or it might take too much time or too many resources to acquire. More
complex models rely on probability in order to describe outcomes rather
than the assumption that a person will always know all outcomes.
Individual rationality is limited by their ability to conduct analysis and
think through competing alternatives. The more complex a decision, the
greater the limits are to making completely rational choices.
Rather than always seeking to optimize benefits while minimizing costs,
people are often willing to choose an acceptable option rather than the
optimal one. This is especially true when it is difficult to precisely
measure and assess factors among the selection criteria.
Bounded Rationality
Other researchers in the field of behavioral economics have also tried to explain
why human behavior often goes against pure economic rationality. The theory of
bounded rationality holds that an individual's rationality is limited by the information
they have, the cognitive limitations of their minds, and the finite amount of time they
have to make a decision. This theory was proposed by Herbert A. Simon as a more
holistic way of understanding decision-making. Bounded rationality shares the view
that decision-making is a fully rational process; however, it adds the condition that
people act on the basis of limited information. Because decision-makers lack the
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Lecture 3. Decision Making in Management
ability and resources to arrive at the optimal solution, they instead apply their
rationality to a set of choices that have already been narrowed down by the absence
of complete information and resources.
Herbert A. Simon
American psychology and economics researcher Herbert A. Simon defined two
cognitive styles: maximizers and satisficers. Maximizers try to make an optimal
decision, whereas satisficers simply try to find a solution that is "good enough."
Maximizers tend to take longer making decisions due to the need to maximize
performance across all variables and make trade-offs carefully. They also tend to
regret their decisions more often (perhaps because they are more able than satisficers
to recognize when a decision has turned out to be sub-optimal). On the other hand,
satisficers recognize that decision makers lack the ability and resources to arrive at an
optimal solution. They instead apply their rationality only after they greatly simplify
the choices available. Thus, a satisficer seeks a satisfactory solution rather than an
optimal one.
Gerd Gigerenzer
German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer goes beyond Simon in dismissing the
importance of optimization in decision making. He argues that simple heuristics—
experience-based techniques for problem-solving—can lead to better decision
outcomes than more thorough, theoretically optimal processes that consider vast
amounts of information. Where an exhaustive search is impractical, heuristic methods
are used to speed up the process of finding a satisfactory solution.
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Lecture 3. Decision Making in Management
5. Decision-Making Process
Decision making is a central responsibility of managers and leaders. It requires
defining the issue or the problem and identifying the factors related to it. Doing so
helps create a clear understanding of what needs to be decided and can influence the
choice between alternatives.
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Lecture 3. Decision Making in Management
Once a decision has been defined, the next step is to identify the alternatives for
decision makers to select from. It is rare for there to be only one alternative; in fact, a
goal should be to identify as many different alternatives as possible without making
too narrow a distinction between them. The decision maker can then narrow the list
based on analysis, resource limitations, or time constraints. Often, doing nothing is an
alternative worthy of consideration.
Brainstorming
Brainstorming is a good technique for identifying alternatives. Making lists of
possible combinations of actions can generate ideas that can be shaped into
alternatives. Often this is best done with a small group of people with different
perspectives, knowledge, and experience. A formal approach to capturing the results
of brainstorming can help make sure options are not overlooked.
When a decision maker has successfully and accurately defined the problem and
generated alternatives, he or she can then conduct analysis useful to evaluating and
assessing each. This typically involves analysis of quantitative data such as costs or
revenues. Qualitative data is also used to be sure that considerations such as
consistency with strategy, effects on relationships, or ethical implications are taken
into account.
A first step in analysis is identifying all the sources of data needed to understand
the various alternatives and their potential outcomes. Finding this data often involves
research if relevant data do not exist. The results of data analysis are typically
gathered, summarized, and synthesized as the basis for discussions and deliberations
by decision makers.
Once decision alternatives have been identified and analyzed, the decision
maker is ready to make a choice. To do so it is important to have a set of criteria
against which to evaluate and even rank the alternatives. Selection criteria might
include total cost, time to implement, risk, and the organization's ability to
successfully implement the decision. Categorizing criteria in terms of importance
helps to differentiate between options that might have similar disadvantages but
different advantages, or vice versa. For example, consider two alternatives that are
equally risky, but one will cost more and the other will take longer to implement. In
this case, the decision would depend on whether cost or time is more important. On
occasion, decision makers may believe they do not have sufficient information about
a particular alternative, so additional analysis may be needed.
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After all of the alternatives have been analyzed and one has been selected, it is
time to implement the decision. Three essential actions to implementing a decision
are: developing a plan, communicating with stakeholders, and executing the plan
(which includes assessing outcomes and making adjustments as needed).
Developing a Plan
A decision is reached with a certain objective in mind. Once it is made,
managers identify the steps needed to reach that objective. These can include listing
necessary actions and activities, considering required financial and other resources,
and making a schedule for completing the work. The more thought that goes into
developing a plan, the less likely it is that important factors will be overlooked.
During the implementation phase, decision makers should be aware that they
may be persuaded by pressures from stakeholders and employees to change their
decision, or to reconsider. A few of these pressures include coercive pressures and
normative pressures. Coercive pressures come from the social sanctions that can be
applied if one does not act in socially legitimate ways. Normative pressures arise
from broad social values, and they concern what people think they should do. Both
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Lecture 3. Decision Making in Management
coercive and normative pressures will likely be felt by the decision maker during the
implementation of the decision, especially if the decision is an unpopular one.
However, the decision maker should fall back on the analyses that originally brought
them to the decision and strive not to be swayed by these pressures.
After a decision has been made and implemented it is important to assess both
the outcome of the decision and the process by which the decision was reached.
Doing so confirms whether the decision actually led to the desired outcomes and also
provides important information that can benefit future decision making. Learning
from experience is important to continuous improvement and effectiveness.
Evaluating Outcomes
The objective of evaluating outcomes is for the decision maker to develop
insight into the decision. Many of the lessons developed in this stage come out of
examining the implications of the decision. Insight can be obtained by referencing
key business metrics such as increased revenue, lowered costs, larger market share, or
greater consumer awareness. One can also consider whether a decision had the
desired effect. For example, a decision to hold additional training seminars may have
been intended to make it more convenient for people to learn a new technology.
However, if overall attendance did not increase, then the decision may not have
addressed the underlying cause of why people did not go to training events. Once the
outcome of a decision is known, the results may imply a need to revise the decision
and try again.
When decision outcomes are not clearly measurable or have ambiguous results –
some parts good, some bad – is not uncommon for people to emphasize the favorable
data and discount the negative. Maintaining self-esteem also may cause decision
makers to attribute good outcomes to their actions and bad outcomes to factors
outside their control. This type of bias can limit an honest assessment of what went
right and what didn't, and thus reduce what can be learned by carefully evaluating
outcomes.
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Lecture 3. Decision Making in Management
decision, and whether everyone who should have been involved was given the chance
to participate.
From the psychological perspective, decisions are often weighed against a set of
needs and augmented by individual preferences. Abraham Maslow's work on the
needs-based hierarchy is one of the best known and most influential theories on the
topic of motivation—according to his theory, an individual's most basic needs (e.g.,
physiological needs such as food and water; a sense of safety) must be met before an
individual will strongly desire or be motivated by higher-level needs (e.g., love; self-
actualization.
1. Confirmation bias: This bias occurs when decision makers seek out evidence
that confirms their previously held beliefs, while discounting or diminishing the
impact of evidence in support of differing conclusions.
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Lecture 3. Decision Making in Management
There are some effective approaches to dealing with time pressure. Clearly
defining the decision and its parameters early on can reduce ambiguity and make it
easier to hone in on relevant data. Setting clear boundaries on matters such as who
will participate and how long discussions will continue can similarly manage the
amount of time given to a decision. In many instances, the use of heuristics can be
applied to complex decisions to serve as shortcuts in conducting analysis and
weighing alternatives.
There is evidence that suggests the perception of time pressure may impact
decision quality. Decision makers who believe they have ample time to make a
decision tend to arrive at more logically crafted decisions than those who feel as
though they have an insufficient amount of time. While time pressure is generally
perceived as being a barrier to effective decision making, it may also have the exact
opposite effect. A limited time frame can focus mental energy and effort to bring the
appropriate resources to bear on a decision more quickly and efficiently than
otherwise might have been the case.
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Lecture 3. Decision Making in Management
Groupthink
One of the greatest inhibitors of effective group decision making is groupthink.
Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people in
which the desire for harmony or conformity results in an irrational or dysfunctional
decision-making outcome. By isolating themselves from outside influences and
actively suppressing dissenting viewpoints in the interest of minimizing conflict,
group members reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative
viewpoints.
Leaders should assign each member the role of "critical evaluator." This
allows each member to freely air objections and doubts.
Leaders should not express an opinion when assigning a task to a group.
Leaders should absent themselves from many of the group meetings to
avoid excessively influencing the outcome.
The organization should set up several independent groups working on
the same problem.
All effective alternatives should be examined.
Each member should discuss the group's ideas with trusted people outside
of the group.
The group should invite outside experts into meetings. Group members
should be allowed to discuss with and question the outside experts.
At least one group member should be assigned the role of devil's
advocate. This should be a different person for each meeting.
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Diffusion of Responsibility
One possible disadvantage of group decision making is that it can create a
diffusion of responsibility that results in a lack of accountability for outcomes. In a
sense, if everyone is responsible for a decision, then no one is. Moreover, group
decisions can make it easier for members to deny personal responsibility and blame
others for bad decisions.
Lower Efficiency
Group decisions can also be less efficient than those made by an individual.
Group decisions can take additional time because there is the requirement of
participation, discussion, and coordination among group members. Without good
facilitation and structure, meetings can get bogged down in trivial details that may
matter a lot to one person but not to the others.
Groupthink
One of the greatest inhibitors of effective group decision making is groupthink.
Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people in
which the desire for harmony or conformity results in an irrational or dysfunctional
decision-making outcome. By isolating themselves from outside influences and
actively suppressing dissenting viewpoints in the interest of minimizing conflict,
group members reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative
viewpoints.
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Lecture 3. Decision Making in Management
Decisions are often delegated to groups when members have the experience and
information needed to arrive at the appropriate choice. Managers and leaders can take
actions that support group decision making and lead to good decision outcomes.
Managers can help promote effective decision making by effectively choosing group
members, framing the decision, and organizing the decision process.
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