Web Traffic Time Series Forecasting Using ARIMA Model

10 V May 2022
https://doi.org/10.22214/ijraset.2022.42800
International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 7.538
Volume 10 Issue V May 2022- Available at www.ijraset.com
Web Traffic Time Series Forecasting Using

ARIMA Model
Vrushant Tambe1, Apeksha Golait2, Sakshi Pardeshi3, Rohit Javeri4, Prof. Gajanan Arsalwad5
1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Department of Information Technology, Trinity College of Engineering and Research, Pune
Abstract: Web traffic prediction is a major concern since it has the potential to produce severe snags in the working of websites.
It is one of the most difficult tasks to make predictions about future time series values, so been a hot topic for research. The
increase in web traffic may encounter a crashed site or very slow loading time. Such disturbances may cause many disturbances
for the users, consequently decreased users rating of the site and user move to another site that affects the business. We have
implemented a forecasting model to predict web traffic. ARIMA model is used for Web traffic time series forecasting. We have
used some of the features like page name, date visited, and the number of visits for prediction with higher accuracy.
Keywords: Web traffic prediction, ARIMA model, Time series forecasting, Data Collection and Feature Understanding.
I. INTRODUCTION
People who work for web service providers need to know how much traffic a web server is getting, because if they don’t, customers
might have long waited and leave the site. However, this is a difficult task because it requires making accurate predictions about
how people will act based on their randomness. In this article, we show how to build an architecture that takes source data and uses
it to make predictions about how many people are going to see a given page at a given time. Depending on the website’s response,
web applications handle HTTP GET requests, media apps spread content based on what the user wants, and so on and so forth
Request time will have a big impact on how the end-user sees the quality of the service. A lot of people have left a lot of platforms
because they took too long to respond. However, the response time is the time between when the application receives the request
and when it sends back the answer. This is called the response time. This can’t be taken away. In the case of web services, the
response time is too long for customers to expect. Developers have been able to figure out when the response time is too long,
known as web congestion. A time series with the dates and number of page views make sense for the problem. The purpose of this
research is to design a forecasting model to predict web traffic based on the certain features like page name, visited date and the
number of visits for pages for a year. As more people gain access to the internet around the world, the increase in traffic to
practically all websites have become unavoidable. The increase in website traffic could bring a slew of issues, and the company that
is able to deal with the variations in traffic the most effectively will emerge.[7]As most people have experienced a crashed site or a
very slow loading time for a website when there are a lot of people using it, such as when various shopping websites may crash just
before festivals as more people try to log in to the website than it was originally capable of, causing a lot of inconveniences for the
users and as most people have encountered a crashed site or a very slow loading time for a website when there are a lot of people
using it, such as when various shopping websites may crash just before festivals as a result, it's possible that users will give the site a
lower rating and instead use another site, lowering their business. As a result, a traffic management approach or plan should be
implemented to limit the danger of such disasters, which could jeopardise the company's existence. Until recently, there was no need
for such tools because most servers could handle the traffic influx. However, the smart phone era has increased demand to such a
high level for some websites that businesses have been unable to respond quickly enough to maintain the inconsistent customer
service level.
II. LITERATURE SURVEY
During the construction of the prediction model, the system successfully rebuilt the existing model and added new features,
resulting in increased model efficiency. New features were used in various combinations.
1) For capturing weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly page popularity, use the median of specified window length in each time
series as an independent feature.
2) Golden ratio-based median of medians of variable time frame windows.
To determine the importance of each feature, the study [1] analysed the obtained results and compared the ac curacies in various
cases. Next, we’ll try to figure out how to tweak parameters in an existing model to get better results. Study wanted to find the most
suitable forecasting model based on time-series which helps us to forecast future traffic data when there is enough dataset is
provided.
©IJRASET: All Rights are Reserved | SJ Impact Factor 7.538 | ISRA Journal Impact Factor 7.894 | 2447
Having this goal in mind, study began to search for models based on prediction, which would enable us to predict the value data.
However, upon more research, we found that it, not a prediction but rather forecasting, after which we focused on that. Study in [2]
came across so many timeseries forecasting models that it made our work both tedious and fun at the same time. Paper proposed a
time series forecasting technique to predict internet traffic based on past values using past values. Many forecasting techniques like
ARIMA are used extensively in literature for making forecasts, but it is useful mostly for a time series which is linear in nature. On
the other hand, neural networks like RNN are very useful in forecasting time series which are nonlinear in nature. Proposed
technique uses Discrete Wavelet Transform and using a high pass filter and a low pass filter producing linear and nonlinear parts
for the time series. The proposed technique [3] clearly outperforms ARIMA and RNN. And because of the simplicity of the
technique, it can be easily employed at data centres. The paper [4] put forward a new engineering approach to prediction of campus
network exit-link traffic trend. And it predicts that EPTS can have following effect in network traffic forecasting if having enough
historical data. Web Traffic Time Series Forecasting
a) To predict network exit-link traffic trend based on historical network traffic data, so we can layout the network resource
planning in advance.
b) It is easy to implement and its computing complexity is acceptable.
The paper [5] compares the traffic flow forecast effects of the LSTM network, BPNN model and ARIMA model on time series
captured at a single point. The proposed LSTM network can accurately predict the traffic flow based on the relatively stable time
series under normal conditions. However, the traffic system on roads is stochastic and complex, and often affected by abnormal
factors like bad weather, traffic accident and large events.
TITLE PUBLICATION AND TECHNICAL DETAILS
AITHOR
Web Traffic Prediction of 2018IEEE International In the process of building prediction model, System
Wikipedia Pages Conference on Big Data successfully rebuilt the existing model and added new
(Big Data) [1] features to observe improvements in efficiency of
-Navyasree Petluri, Eyhab model.
Al-Masri Applied new features in different combinations
1) Median of specified window length in each time
series as an independent feature for capturing weekly,
monthly, quarterly and yearly page popularity
2) Median of medians of variable time frame windows
based on golden ratio. Study analysed the Obtained
result and compared the accuracies in different cases,
to know the importance of each feature. As a next step,
we will try to work on how to tune parameters in
existing model to Observe better results.
Traffic Forecasting using 2021 6th International Study wanted to find the most suitable forecasting
Time-Series Conference on Inventive model based on time-series which helps us to forecast
Analysis. Computation future traffic data when there is enough dataset is
Technologies (ICICT) provided. Having this goal in mind, study began to
[2] search for models based on prediction, which would
- Mohammmad enable us to predict the value data. However, upon
Asifur Rahman Shuvo, more research, we found that it, not a prediction but
Muhtadi Zubair Afsara rather forecasting, after which we focused on that.
Tahsin Purnota, Study came across so many timeseries forecasting
Sarowar Hossain, models that it made our work both tedious and fun at
Muhammad Iqbal Hossain the same time.
Predicting Computer 2018 Eleventh Paper proposed a time series forecasting technique to
Network Traffic: A International Conference on predict internet traffic based on past values using past
Time Series Forecasting Contemporary values. Many forecasting techniques like ARIMA are
Approach Using DWT, Computing (IC3) [3] used extensively in literature for making forecasts, but,
ARIMA and RNN - Rishabh Madan, Partha it is useful mostly for a time series which is linear in
Sarathi nature. On the other hand, neural networks like RNN
Mangipudi are very useful in forecasting time series which are
nonlinear in nature. Proposed technique uses Discrete
Wavelet Transform and using a high pass filter and a
low pass filter producing linear and nonlinear parts for
the time series. The proposed technique clearly
outperforms ARIMA and RNN. And because of the
simplicity of the technique, it can be easily employed
at data centres.
An Engineering 2009 International Joint The paper put forward a new engineering approach to
Approach to Prediction of Conference on prediction of campus network exit-link traffic Trend
Network Traffic Based on Artificial Intelligence. [4] and it predicts that EPTS can have following effect in
Time-Series -Fu-Ke Shen, Wei Zhang, network traffic forecasting if having enough historical
Model Pan Chang data.
1) To predict network exit-link traffic trend based on
historical network traffic data, so we can layout the
network resource planning in advance.
2) It is easy to implement and its computing
complexity is acceptable.
Traffic Flow Forecast 2020 IEEE Access [5] This paper compares the traffic flow forecast effects of
Through Time Series - Jianhu Zheng, the LSTM network, BPNN model and ARIMA model
Analysis Based Mingfang Huang on time series captured at a single point. The proposed
Deep Learning LSTM network can accurately predict the traffic flow
based on the relatively stable time series under normal
conditions. However, the traffic system on roads is
stochastic and complex, and often affected by
abnormal factors like bad weather, traffic accident and
large events.
III. RELATED WORK

Experts have dismissed neural networks (NNs) as non-competitive all throughout years, and NN aficionados have proposed a slew
of new and sophisticated NN architectures, many of which lack solid empirical assessments when compared to simpler univariate
statistical methods. Many time series prediction competitions, such as the M3, NN3, and NN5 competitions, backed up this theory
[18– 20]. NNs have been labelled as unsuitable for forecasting as a result. The poor performance of NNs in the past could be due to
a variety of factors, one of which is that the individual time series were frequently too short to be simulated using advanced
methods. Alternatively, the time series characteristics may have changed over time, resulting in even longer time series containing
insufficient relevant data to fit a complex model[7,8]. As a result, when using complicated methods to represent series, it's vital that
they're the right length and come from a somewhat stable system. Furthermore, NNs are generally chastised for being closed
systems. As a result, forecasting specialists have always opted to employ simpler statistical methods [9]. However, we are currently
living in a huge data environment. Over the years, businesses have accumulated a large amount of data that provides valuable
insight into their business processes. In the context of time series, big data does not automatically imply that each time series
contains a lot of information. Rather, they frequently suggest that a given field has a large number of related time series. Univariate
prediction algorithms that evaluate individual time series independently may not be reliable in this case.
They become inaccessible in the situation of large data, because a single model can learn from several similar timeseries at the same
time. Furthermore, even more advanced models, such as neural networks (NNs), benefit as much as feasible from access to large
amounts of data [10,11]. The Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) play a role in this new field of growing scientific interest in the
NN. Results never seen previously in the field of language and time series analysis are beginning to be realised with this new form
of neural networks specialising in the sequence prediction problem [18].
RNNs, on the other hand, have major memory issues, which were remedied when the LSTM was introduced into the research field.
In addition to the RNN's regular hidden state, this new type of RNN has a new internal memory (cell state). This makes it easier to
prevent vanishing or exploding gradient difficulties when training LSTMs [19]. LSTM can be utilised in a predictive setting since
time series have seasonality components. If a monthly time series exhibits yearly seasonality, for example, the value of the same
exact month the previous year is more useful in predicting the value for the next month. Suilin et al. accomplished a fantastic job on
the Kaggle challenge for Wikipedia's web traffic estimate, which included this concept. [20]. Despite the fact that this dataset has
been widely utilised for the prediction of time series related to online traffic, it has not been employed in the construction of the
LSTM with minimal data since the researchers believe that alternative models, such as ARIMA, are more efficient in these
situations. Other study Mathematics 2021, 9, 421 4 of 21 TSF has resulted in more complex prediction algorithms that do not
account for the seasonal component. [21]. For multivariate forecasting issues, Qin et al. presented an RNN. Different weights are
allocated to the various driving data in this model based on how important they are in contributing to the forecast at each time stage.
The authors compared this model to ARIMA, NARX RNN, Encoder Decoder, Attention RNN, Input Attention RNN, and the Dual
Stage Attention RNN in order to validate it [22]. The model presented by Qin et al. has been studied more recently. The authors
claimed in [23] that their model can cope with the spatial temporal series' fundamental properties. Researchers have been stacking
RNN or LSTM to reach the needed outcome in FTS challenges in recent years. However, with FTS prediction models in time series
with little data, we discovered a gap in the literature [24]. We suggested a supervised architecture based on LSTM that is trained
through distributed data parallelism and follows the Downpour technique due to a gap in the state of the art in the prediction of time
series with limited data.
Figure 1: System Architecture
IV. ARIMA MODEL

ARIMA (Auto regressive Integrated Moving Average model) is a statistical analysis technique that uses time series data to better
understand or forecast future trends. An autoregressive integrated moving average model is a type of regression analysis that
determines how strong one dependent variable is in comparison to other changing variables. The purpose of the model is to
anticipate future securities or financial market movements by looking at the discrepancies between values in a series rather than
actual values. The full model can be written as,
ŷt = μ + ϕ1 yt-1 +…+ ϕp yt-p - θ1et-1 -…- θqet-q
Where, yt’ is the differences series (it may have been differences more than once).
The “predictors” on the right-hand side include both lagged values of yt and lagged errors.
A standard notation would be ARIMA with p, d, and q, where integer values substitute for the parameters to indicate the type of
ARIMA model used.
The parameters can be defined as:
1. p - order of the auto regressive part
2. d- degree of first difference involved
3. q - order of the moving average part
Apply
Input forecasting
Data Analysis System
Dataset model
Preprocessing
Sentiment Apply ARIMA Analysis

Analysis with model for data of the
Page Name
different analysis data
Date Visited technique
Number of
visits
Predict date wise traffic
analysis
Figure 2: DFD Level 2
V. RESULT AND EVALUATION

A. Tools and Technologies Used
1) Jupyter Notebook
a) The Jupyter Notebook is an open-source web application that you can use to create and share documents that contain live code,
equations, visualizations, and text.
b) Jupyter Notebook is maintained by the people at Project Jupyter.
2) Databases
The database basically used for user storing user details like Username and Password.
The tool used for db functionalities was MYSQL GUI Browser.
B. Limitations
Server machine should be on all the time.
TEST TEST CASE TEST CASE EXPECTED RESULT ACTUAL

ID NAME DESCRIPTION RESULT
1 To verify login Enter valid login name and System should display the Same as
name and password password homepage expected
Enter valid login name and System shows the error Same as
password message expected
2 Data collection The web traffic dataset is Use pre-processing to Same as
downloaded from the clean the data expected
kaggle
3 Feature extraction Extract the feature from Features for predicting the Same as
the data web traffic are extracted expected
4 Time series Find the underlying trends The pattern in time series Interpret and
analysis and patterns in the data data is observed integrate the
pattern with
other
5 Build prediction Model is trained using Predict the future web Same as
model ARIMA traffic expected
Figure 3: Test Cases
VI. CONCLUSION
Our research’s primary objective is to develop a consistent forecasting model for predicting the future traffic of Wikipedia pages. To
validate our prediction model, we use ARIMA model on Web Traffic Time Series Forecasting dataset. We have trained the data
with this model using features like page name, visited date and the number of visits for pages for a year to predict the future web
traffic.
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10 V May 2022

Web Traffic Time Series Forecasting Using

III. RELATED WORK

Figure 1: System Architecture

IV. ARIMA MODEL

Sentiment Apply ARIMA Analysis

Figure 2: DFD Level 2

V. RESULT AND EVALUATION

TEST TEST CASE TEST CASE EXPECTED RESULT ACTUAL

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