Georgia S Potential For Footwear Bags Accessories Manufacturing
Georgia S Potential For Footwear Bags Accessories Manufacturing
Georgia S Potential For Footwear Bags Accessories Manufacturing
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Contents
Page
The contacts at KPMG
in connection with this
report are: — Stage I: Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in the world 4
Tamar Kavtaradze
Manager, Advisory
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Stage I: Sector review
in the global and
regional context
Value chain analysis of
footwear, bags and
accessories industries
Abbreviations and Glossary of Terms
Abbreviations Glossary of terms
RIP Regional Investment Project OBM Original Brand Manufacturer IRAP Regional production tax
TASED Territories of Advanced Social and Economic ODM Original Design Manufacturer IRES Corporate income tax
Development OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer
Statista One of the world’s leading online portals
USD United States Dollars TRY Turkish Lira of statistics, market research and business intelligence
USA United States of America VAT Value Added Tax
The following measures were used throughout the report
RF Russian Federation CNY China Yuan Renminbi
1 pair of footwear = 0.6 kg
HS Harmonized System RUB Russian Ruble
EU European Union AED United Arab Emirates Dirham 1 unit of bag = 1.8 kg
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States Below are the exchange rates used throughout the report
COGS Cost of Goods Sold Average Exchange Rates, 2016
SEZ Special Economic Zone
EUR/USD 1.11
SPIC Special Investment Contracts TL/USD 0.33
R&D Research and Development CNY/USD 0.15
ITC International Trade Center RUB/USD 0.015
EUR Euro AED/USD 0.27
Source: xe.com
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FTZ Free Trade Zone Average exchange rates
CIT Corporate Income Tax 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F
FIE Foreign Invested Enterprise USD/EUR 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
DIFC Dubai International Financial Centre USD/RUB 58.3 60.5 60.2 60.7 60.3 58.9
USD/AED 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
UAE United Arab Emirates
USD/TRY 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8
LLC Limited Liability Company USD/CHY 6.8 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8
IIC Investment Incentive Certificate Source: Economic Intelligence Unit
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 6
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Value chain analysis of footwear, bags and accessories industry
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 7
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Value chain analysis of footwear, bags and accessories industry
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 8
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Value chain analysis of footwear, bags and accessories industry
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 9
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Value chain analysis of footwear, bags and accessories industry
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 10
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in the selected regions
Comparative Analysis
Based on the results of the performed market study of the sectors footwear, bags and accessories the following has been identified:
Footwear
For the period of 2013-2017 only EU and Turkey had a positive CAGR of footwear export value equaling to 2.6% and 1.5% correspondingly.
For the same period Middle East reported the highest decrese in the export value of footwear equaling to negative CAGR of 12.5%.
For the period of 2013-2017 China reported the highest CAGR of footwear import value equaling to 16.9%, while the highest decrease of the
same indicator was reported by Turkey equaling to negative CAGR of 9.2%.
For the forecast period of 2018-2022 the consumption value of footwear in Russia will have the highest increase equaling to CAGR 2.3%,
while the same indicator will have the highest decrease in Turkey equaling to negative CAGR of 3.2%.
For the forecast period of 2018-2022 the production value of footwear in China will have the highest increase equaling to CAGR 2.85%, while
the same indicator will have the highest decrease in Turkey equaling to negative CAGR of 2.87%.
Bags and Accessories
For the period of 2013-2017 only EU had a positive CAGR of bags and accessories export value equaling to 3.4%. For the same period
Middle East reported the highest decrese in the export value of bags and accessories equaling to negative CAGR of 16.6%.
For the period of 2013-2017 China reported the highest CAGR of bags and accessories import value equaling to 8.2%, while the highest
decrease of the same indicator was reported by Turkey equaling to negative CAGR of 13.9%.
For the forecast period of 2018-2022 the consumption value of bags and accessories in Russia will have the highest increase equaling to
CAGR 3.3%, while the same indicator will have the highest decrease in Turkey equaling to negative CAGR of 0.9%.
For the forecast period of 2018-2022 the production value of bags and accessories in Middle East will have the highest increase equaling to
CAGR 6.4%, while the same indicator will have the highest decrease in Turkey equaling to negative CAGR of 0.7%.
Government Incentives
All the analyzed countries/regions do not have considerable government incentives specifically relevant to the sectors of footwear, bags and
accessories, however, all the coutries/regions have FTZs and/or SEZs, which offer favorable investment climate for the foreign investors.
Note: The detailed analysis of the selected regions/countries is included in the following sections
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 11
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear,
bags and accessories
manufacturing sectors in EU
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in EU
mln units
10%
9% 5% 8%
8% 57.3 Children's Footwear
USD bln
51.6 53.6
40.0 48.3 3% 49.5 59.8 0% 60
44.7 43.2 45.1 61 62 62 63 63
(6%) 55.4
(10%) 21 22 22 22 23
(11%) 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Euromonitor
0.0 (20%)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Consumption value forecast of footwear in Italy
Export Import 10
Export growth rate (right axes) Import growth rate (right axes)
Source: ITC
During the period of 2013-2017 both EU’s footwear exports and imports Women's Footwear
in value terms increased at CAGRs of 2.6% and 3.7%, correspondingly. 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.6
USD bln
4.6
Italy was the EU’s top footwear exporting country in the analyzed period, Men's Footwear
5
with an average share of 25% in EU’s total footwear exports. Children's Footwear
While Italy’s footwear consumption in volume terms is forecasted to rise 2.8
2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7
at a moderate CAGR of 0.55% during the period of 2018-2022, the
consumption in value terms is forecasted to slightly decline - at a CAGR 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
of 0.2%. 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Although forecasts for the market growth are moderate, according to the
Euromonitor, it is expected that as a result of economic recovery Italian 13.8 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6
consumers will have more money to spend on footwear. Consequently, it
is expected that there will be a rise in demand for high-quality and Production value forecast, USD bln
premium products as well as more functional footwear, including sport-
specific footwear. Even though Italian consumers are likely to remain Source: (1) Euromonitor, (2) KPMG Analysis
price-sensitive when buying footwear, the offer of better value for money Besides, sports-inspired footwear and performance footwear are
is expected to contribute to future value consumption growth. expected to be very popular over the forecast period.
Note: The list of EU countries is included in the analysis is presented in Appendix 4
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 13
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in EU
mln units
7% 7% 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 Handbags
6% 5.1 5.0
5% 20 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4
26.6 27.5 5% 2.1 2.2 Crossbody Bags
25.5 24.3 25.0 25.2 26.1 25.7 29.1 4.8 4.8
27.1 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8
USD bln
USD bln
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.1 0.2 0.2
correspondingly. Italy was the EU’s top bags and accessories exporting 2 0.2 Crossbody Bags
country in the analyzed period, with an average share of 32% in EU’s
2.1 Duffel Bags
total bags and accessories exports. 1
1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
According to Euromonitor, more positive volume and value development Wallet and Coin Pouches
of consumption is expected in Italy over the period of 2017-2022, at a 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other Small Bags
0.1 0.1
CAGR of 1.09% and 2.2%, correspondingly. However, low purchasing 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Luggage
power and a great deal of political uncertainty continue to affect
purchases of bags and luggage nationwide, luxury brands in particular. 8.8 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.5
The consumption of luxury brand bags and luggage in Italy is notably
fueled by Chinese and Japanese tourists visiting and shopping in Rome, Production value forecast, USD bln
Milan and Florence. Due to financial or economic insecurities among
consumers many Italians consider bags and luggage to be luxury goods Source: (1) Euromonitor, (2) KPMG Analysis
that do not need to be bought or replaced on a regular basis. Low-priced result, volume consumption of bags and luggage are expected to
products and alternatives, therefore, might be more popular and as a perform slightly better than value consumption in the forecast period.
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 14
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in EU
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 15
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in EU
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 16
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in EU
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 17
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in EU
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 18
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in EU
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 19
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in EU
In 2016 the EU’s total production of bags and accessories equaled to USD 10,916 million, with top three producers of Italy (52.2%), France
(15.2%) and Spain (6.4%). In volume terms, 152 million units of bags and accessories were produced in EU countries in 2016, with top three
producing countries being Italy (43.5%), France (9.1%) and Spain (8.7%).
The charts below illustrate the footwear, bags and accessories production values by EU countries in 2016.
Footwear production value breakdown by country, 2016 Bags and Accessories production value breakdown by country, 2016
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
mln USD mln USD
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 20
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in EU
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,208 4,183 3,973
4,000 2,842 3,452
1,422
2,000 699 1,101 793
368 525
202 225 14 231 148 30
0
(61)
(2,000)
Waterproof footwear Footwear with Sports footwear Ski footwear Parts of footwear Footwear with Footwear Footwear with textile Footwear with Other footwear with
rubber or plastic wooden parts incorporating a uppers leather uppers plastic and rubber
uppers protective metal toe- parts
Production Consumption cap
Source: ITC, Eurostat
Note: (1) The mapping of the product labels is presented in Appendix 1
(2) The figures of consumption are estimated by KPMG
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 21
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in EU
5,000 4,493
4,500
4,000
3,274
3,500
3,000
2,500
1,804
2,000 1,334 1,337
1,348 1,304
1,500 1,154 533
884
1,000 599 411 450 491 492 533
105 169 242
500 64 93 162
0
Trunks, suitcases, Travelling bags Gloves, mittens and Handbags Articles normally Belts and Clothing Articles of apparel Articles for technical Articles of leather or Saddlery and
vanity cases, mitts carried in pocket or bandoliers, of accessories of of leather or of use, of leather or of composition harness
briefcases, school handbag leather or leather or composition leather composition leather leather, n.e.c.
satchels and similar composition leather composition leather
containers of
leather, composition
leather, patent Production Consumption
leather, plastics,
textile materials,
aluminium or other
materials
Source: ITC, Eurostat
Note: (1) The mapping of the product labels is presented in Appendix 2
(2) The figures of consumption are estimated by KPMG
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in EU
mln units
8% 188 192 198 Women's Footwear
4.5 182 184
10% 200
(3%)
Men's Footwear
USD bln
3 3.4 0%
3.3
(18%) 80 81 83 85 87 Children's Footwear
(18%)
1 0.64 0.69 0.57 0.47
(18%) 0.52 (20%) 46 47 48 50 52
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-1 (40%) Source: Euromonitor
(36%)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Consumption value forecast of footwear in Russia
Export Import 14.0
Export growth rate (right axes) Import growth rate (right axes)
Source: ITC
During the period of 2013-2017 both CIS footwear exports and imports in Women's Footwear
value terms decreased at CAGRs of 5% and 8.8%, correspondingly. 8.2 8.5
USD bln
7.8 7.9 7.9
Russia was the CIS top footwear exporting country in the analyzed 7.0
Men's Footwear
period, with an average share of 30% in CIS total footwear exports. Children's Footwear
Russia’s footwear consumption both in volume and value terms is
forecasted to rise - correspondingly at a CAGR of 2.2% and 2.3% during 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2
the period of 2018-2022. International brands prevail over local brands, 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5
although domestic players posted more dynamic value growth in 2017. 0.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
According to Euromonitor, both in women’s and men’s footwear, there is
a growing demand for athleisure in Russia and the trend towards 9.0 9.3
8.9 9.0 9.7
athleisure is expected to continue driving sports footwear consumption in
the forecast period. Economic constraints, lower disposable income and Production value forecast, USD bln
desire for the high-status global brands attract many Russian consumers
to low-priced counterfeit products that reached record levels in 2017. Source: (1) Euromonitor, (2) KPMG Analysis
According to Euromonitor, the presence of counterfeit and unregistered
products is the main threat to the forecasted performance of footwear.
Note: The list of CIS countries is included in the analysis is presented in Appendix 4
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 26
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in CIS
mln units
80
1,500 8% Wallet and Coin Pouches
10%
9% 1,543 Other Small Bags
1,323
(9%) 90.1 92.6
(10%) 86.3 86.3 87.0 88.1
mln
USD bln
2
in CIS total bags and accessories exports. Wallet and Coin Pouches
2.0 2.1
During the period of 2017-2022 the consumption of Russia’s bags and 1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 Other Small Bags
accessories both in volume and value terms is projected to see increase
at CAGRs of 1.5% and 2.4% correspondingly. According to Other Bags
0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Euromonitor, there is a rising trend for low-cost bags and accessories 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
due to lower consumer income in light of unfavorable economic
conditions. The development of bags and accessories market in Russia 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0
is set to be determined by the performance of the national economy
over the forecast period.
Production value forecast, USD bln
The main potential threat to forecast growth is a worsening economic
situation resulting in a sharp lowering of consumer spending power. Source: (1) Euromonitor, (2) KPMG Analysis
Counterfeiting remains a major concern for bags and luggage players in Note: The category “Other Bags” includes categories “Luggage”, “Business Bags”, “Crossbody
Bags” and “Duffel Bags”
Russia with international brands as the main targets of counterfeiters.
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 27
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in CIS
Spain Poland
United States of America
10% Romania 14%
Spain
Ukraine
Other
Source: ITC Other Source: ITC
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in CIS
Moldova, Republic of 33
Armenia 7
Kyrgyzstan 52
Moldova, Republic of 15
Belarus 59
Russian Federation 46
Ukraine 171
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 29
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in CIS
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 30
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in CIS
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 31
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Russia
8,000 8,010
6,624
6,000 It is worth mentioning that in 2016 the consumption value exceeded
4,000 the production value of both footwear and bags and accessories by
2,513
3,065 USD 9,420 2017 the amounts equaling to USD 2,178 million and USD 572 million
2,000
1,336
million correspondingly. The image was the same in 2017 with the
1,111
0
2016 2017 production gaps equaling to USD 2,992 million and USD 732 million
Children's Footwear Men's Footwear Women's Footwear
for the sectors of footwear and bags and accessories
Source: (1) Footwear In Russia, 2017, Euromonitor International
(2) KPMG Analysis
correspondingly.
Bags and Accessories consumption value Total bags and accessories According to Euromonitor International, both in women’s and men’s
production value
4,000 footwear, there was a growing trend towards athleisure in Russia at
3,500 173 the end of 2017. A growing number of women stopped wearing high
USD million
195
143
3,000 USD 2,235 2016 heels in favour of a comfortable flat sole, aware of the harm that can
163 533
2,500 million be caused by high heels.
441
2,000
1,500 1,880
1,562
126
For the period of 2016-2017, Crossbody Bags faced the largest
1,000 150
177 USD 2,659 2017 consumption growth equaling to 26.1%, followed by Backpacks
500 141
0 157 76 192 91 million (22.8%) and Luggage (21%). According to the Euromonitor analysis,
2016 2017 the athleisure trend and casual styles stimulated consumption of
Backpacks Business Bags Crossbody Bags Duffel Bags crossbody Bags and Backpacks in 2017.
Handbags Wallet and Coin Pouches Other Small Bags Luggage
Source: (1) Bags And Luggage In Russia, 2017, Euromonitor International
(2) KPMG Analysis
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 32
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in CIS
mln units
5.21 20 9.8 9.9
4.91 4.95 4.96 Women's Footwear
4 5% 0%
(5%) 0.1%
8.6 Men's Footwear
(5%) 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.4
10
USD bln
Children's Footwear
2 (20%) 6.9 7.3 7.6
6.4 6.6
(21%)
1.61 1.69 0
1.33 1.41 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0.94 (33%)
0 (40%) Source: Euromonitor
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Consumption value forecast of footwear in UAE
Export Import 4.0
Export growth rate (right axes) Import growth rate (right axes)
Source: ITC
During the period of 2013-2017 Middle East’s footwear exports in value 3.0
1.3 1.3 Women's Footwear
1.2 1.2 1.3
terms significantly decreased – at a CAGR of 12.5%. At the same time
USD bln
footwear imports in value terms slightly increased - at a CAGR of 0.2%. 2.0 Men's Footwear
UAE was the Middle East’s second top (after Turkey) footwear exporting
1.4 1.5 1.5 Children's Footwear
country in the period of 2013-2017, with an average share of 33% in 1.4 1.4
1.0
Middle East’s total footwear exports.
UAE’s footwear consumption both in volume and value terms is 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
forecasted to rise - correspondingly at a CAGR of 2.8% and 1.3% during 0.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
the period of 2018-2022. According to Euromonitor, in UAE sports
footwear has benefited from the developing health and wellness trend,
2.09 2.07 2.11 2.13 2.12
which has led to the population adapting to healthier lifestyles. Moreover,
as UAE consumers become more active, the demand for fashionable Production value forecast, USD bln
footwear that is comfortable is growing. Since the trend evolves across
footwear globally, the demand for athleisure in UAE will strengthen and Source: (1) Euromonitor, (2) KPMG Analysis
remain strong during the forecast period. Nevertheless, men greatly
appreciate the Western style of dressing, and wearing fashionable the consumption of sandals, typically worn by the local male
footwear is important within their working and social circles, population still remains in demand.
Note: The list of Middle East countries is included in the analysis is presented in Appendix 4
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 36
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Asia and Middle East
mln units
3.00 3.36 1% 0.6 1.6
0.6
3.06 6% 0% 6 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.8
Duffel Bags
2.97 1.3
0.6
0.6 0.4 0.4
2.73 0.5 0.4
(9%) 2.70 0.5
0.3 0.3 0.4
4 Wallet and Coin Pouches
mlrd
2.00 (10%)
3.9 4.1
(9%) 3.5 3.7
(12%) (22%) 3.2 3.3 Luggage
(20%) 2
1.00 Other Bags
1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3
(30%) 0
0.79 0.84 (36%) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0.54 0.49 0.38 Source: Euromonitor
- (40%) Note: The category “Other Bags” includes categories “Business Bags”, “Crossbody Bags” and
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 “Other Small Bags”
Exporters Importers Consumption value forecast of bags and accessories in UAE
Export growth rate (right axes) Import growth rate (right axes) 1,800
Source: ITC 109 109
107 Backpacks
During the period of 2013-2017 both Middle East’s bags and accessories 103 104
334 351
101 316
exports and imports in value terms decreased at CAGRs of 16.6% and 1,200 279 292
131 131 Handbags
USD mln
267 129 131 22
2.8%, correspondingly. UAE was the Middle East’s second top (after 126 127 21 21 22
Duffel Bags
21 21
Turkey) bags and accessories exporting country in the analyzed period,
Wallet and Coin Pouches
with an average share of 34% in Middle East’s total bags and 600 976 1,026 1,051
877 924
accessories exports. 839 Luggage
During the period of 2017-2022 UAE’s consumption of bags and Other Bags
accessories both in volume and value terms is projected to see increase 0 55
2017
57
2018
57
2019
59
2020
60
2021
61
2022
at CAGRs of 5.9% and 4.1%, correspondingly. According to Euromonitor,
consumer confidence is expected to be affected as costs increase and 0.52 0.5 0.52 0.58 0.63 0.63
salaries stagnate, resulting in more cautious spending by consumers.
While fashion-conscious consumers will try to maintain a trendy and Production value forecast, USD bln
stylish image, they will do so by either shopping for brands at a cheaper Source: (1) Euromonitor, (2) KPMG Analysis
price abroad when travelling or waiting for special offers. Counterfeit Note: The category “Other Bags” includes categories “Business Bags”, “Crossbody Bags” and
goods can lower confidence and restrict spending; therefore, the second- “Other Small Bags”
hand or informal market is a potential threat to forecasted growth, According to Euromonitor, though Dubai will continue to strengthen its
especially for luxury bags and luggage. position as a design and fashion hub, it might witness some decrease
in terms of consumption value during the forecast period.
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Asia and Middle East
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Asia and Middle East
Cambodia 1,798
Singapore 1,402
India 2,077
India 1,818
Hong Kong, China 2,901
Viet Nam 3,973
Indonesia 4,912
Hong Kong, China 4,771
Viet Nam 19,864
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
mln USD mln USD
Source: ITC Source: ITC
Note: (1) Except for the CIS countries, all the other Asian countries are included in the analysis. The list of Asian countries included in the analysis is presented in Appendix 4
(2) The data on the export volumes from Vietnam is not available
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Asia and Middle East
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Asia and Middle East
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in UAE
2,000
1,500
1,404 1,421
It is worth mentioning that in 2016 the consumption value exceeded
1,000 the production value of both footwear and bags and accessories by
500 the amounts equaling to USD 859 million and USD 885 million
613 628
0
correspondingly.
2016 2017
Children's Footwear Men's Footwear Women's Footwear
According to Euromonitor International, the local population
Source: (1) Footwear In UAE, 2017, Euromonitor International
(2) KPMG Analysis
continues to invest in children’s footwear, which naturally needs
frequent replacing for growing feet, thus giving the category higher
Bags and Accessories consumption value Total bags and accessories
production value, 2016
growth compared to men’s and women’s footwear in 2017.
1,600
Moreover, Footwear has benefited from the burgeoning health and
1,400
USD million
267
wellness trend, which has led to the population adapting to healthier
1,200 249
37 39 USD 457 lifestyles with greater exercise and eating healthily, consequently the
1,000 126 million
120 demand for athleisure has strengthened.
800
600
802
20
839 21 For the period of 2016-2017, Luggage faced the largest
400
17 17 consumption growth equaling to 7.3%, followed by Backpacks
200
52
43
55
45 (5.7%) and Business Bags (5.1%). According to the Euromonitor
0
2016 2017 analysis, both cabin and check-in baggage remain popular. This is
Backpacks Business Bags Crossbody Bags Duffel Bags because a large proportion of the country’s population consists of
Handbags Wallet and Coin Pouches Other Small Bags Luggage employed expatriates who often travel home, or abroad for business.
Source: (1) Bags And Luggage In UAE, 2017, Euromonitor International Also, many travelers take short trips to tourist destinations,
(2) KPMG Analysis
especially over public holidays.
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in UAE
56.2 4
53.5 2.24 2.32
50.8 2.17 Women's Footwear
2.10
mln units
20% 47.2 48.4 2.02
40.0 17% 19% 20% Men's Footwear
10% 11%
USD bln
2 1.47
1.29 1.35 1.41 Children's Footwear
8% 11% 1.22
3%
20.0 0%
0.88 0.94 1.00 1.05 1.11
(5%) (12%) 0
2.0 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.7 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
- (20%) Source: Euromonitor
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Consumption value forecast of footwear
Export Import 80
Export growth rate (right axes) Import growth rate (right axes)
Source: ITC
During the period of 2013-2017, while China’s footwear exports in value 60 Women's Footwear
terms decreased at a CAGR of 1.2%, footwear imports in value terms 30.5 31.2 31.4
USD bln
29.6 29.7
significantly increased - at a CAGR of 16.9%. China was the top footwear 40 Men's Footwear
exporting country in the world in the period of 2013-2017, with about 38%
share in the world’s total footwear exports. Children's Footwear
23.4 23.7 24.6 25.3 25.7
20
China’s footwear consumption both in volume and value terms is
forecasted to rise - correspondingly at a CAGR of 4.3% and 2.3% during 8.9 9.3 9.8 10.3 10.7
the period of 2018-2022. According to Euromonitor footwear is expected 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
to continue its steady growth in the forecast period underpinned by stable
demand for a variety of footwear, particularly sportswear. The improving
109 112 117 120 122
living conditions and China's hosting of the 2022 Winter Olympics are
expected to promote certain niche sports and types of exercise, like Production value forecast, USD bln
skiing, which is anticipated to trigger rising demand for ski boots.
Besides, with the advancement of technology in China, the artificial Source: (1) Euromonitor, (2) KPMG Analysis
intelligence is gradually being integrated into the production of footwear. technology. It is able to measure foot with the 3D scanner in several
For example, Xiemofang, or Shoe Cube is the first smart shoe seconds and to create a three-dimensional foot model to produce
customization platform, armed with a 3D foot scanner and virtual reality tailor-made shoes for customers.
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in China
mln units
20% 87 6 6 136
6 125 128 132
30.7 9% 30.4 31.0 600 117 121 Handbags
7% 29.1
3% 27.4 4% 222 227 233 Crossbody Bags
204 210 216
20 2% 6% 0% 400
2% Duffel Bags
mln
bln USD
1.2 4.9 5.0 5.1
4.6 4.7
increased at a CAGR of 8.2%. China was the top bags and accessories 4.2 Handbags
exporting country in the world in the period of 2013-2017, with about 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.8 Crossbody Bags
8.3
39.5% average share in the world’s total footwear exports. 10
Wallet and Coin Pouches
During the period of 2017-2022 China’s consumption of bags and 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1
accessories both in volume and value terms is projected to increase at 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9 Other Small Bags
CAGRs of 2.7% and 3.5%, correspondingly. According to Euromonitor, in 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Luggage
the forecast period retail consumption value is expected to increase
steadily but at a slower rate as the category starts to mature. As
54 58 60 62 64 65
consumers are moving towards the higher priced market where products
are of a higher quality, this will lead to an increase in the retail Production value forecast, USD bln
consumption value of bags and luggage. However, as consumers pursue
higher quality products, which have a longer replacement cycle, retail Source: (1) Euromonitor, (2) KPMG Analysis
consumption volume is expected to decrease. On the other hand, the Overseas and spending on luxury products domestically. In the forecast
depreciation of the local currency is helping the slow recovery of China’s period, the average unit price of bags and accessories in China is
luxury market as consumers are no longer purchasing luxury goods expected to increase due to an increase in the production cost.
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in China
India
2,628 Korea, Republic of
9% India
USD million Thailand USD million
Philippines
Cambodia
16% Korea, Republic of
Germany
14%
Portugal Thailand
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Source: ITC USD mln Source: ITC USD mln
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in China
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in China
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in China
30,000
the consumption value of both footwear and bags and accessories
by the amounts equaling to USD 44,140 million and USD 45,000
20,000
20,521 21,323 million correspondingly. The image was the same in 2017 with the
10,000 USD 101,261 2017 consumption gaps equaling to USD 44,788 million and USD 45,810
7,241 7,867 million million for the sectors of footwear and bags and accessories
0
2016 2017 correspondingly.
Children's Footwear Men's Footwear Women's Footwear
Source: (1) Footwear In China, 2017, Euromonitor International
(2) KPMG Analysis
Following years of robust development, footwear in China continued
to steady develop in 2017, with sportswear remaining the key driver.
Bags and Accessories consumption value Total bags and accessories Moreover, the introduction of the two-child policy in 2016 was a
30,000 production value
great incentive for the sector’s development.
25,000 4,853
4,608
1,043
20,000
1,009
1,173 1,222 USD 71,303 2016 For the period of 2016-2017, luggage faced the largest consumption
USD million
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in China
1.0 40%
32% 0.99 0.95
200
91.3 91.7 92.0 92.2 92.4 Women's Footwear
mln units
0.79 0.77 20% Men's Footwear
0.72 0.72
0.67 0.70 0.73 0.68
15% 100 59.2 59.8 60.1 60.3 60.5 Children's Footwear
USD bln
0.5 5% 9%
(1%)
0% 67.3 68.2 68.9 69.4 69.9
(7%)
(4%) (8%) 0
(8%)
(17%) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0.0 (20%) Source: Euromonitor
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Consumption value forecast of footwear
Export Import 4
Export growth rate (right axes) Import growth rate (right axes)
Source: ITC
During the period of 2013-2017, while Turkey’s footwear exports in value 3
Women's Footwear
terms increased at a CAGR of 1.5%, footwear imports in value terms 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3
USD bln
significantly decreased - at a CAGR of 9.2%. Turkey was the Middle Men's Footwear
East’s top footwear exporting country in the period of 2013-2017, with 2
about 50% average share in Middle East’s total footwear exports. 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 Children's Footwear
Turkey’s footwear consumption in volume terms is forecasted to rise at a 1
CAGR of 0.57% during the period of 2018-2022. Although Turkey’s
footwear consumption in value terms in local currency (TRY) is 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
0
forecasted to rise at a CAGR of 1.2% in the analyzed period, due to 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
forecasted depreciation of TRY against USD, the CAGR of footwear
consumption in USD is negative – 3.2%. 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7
According to Euromonitor, the shift from unregistered and unbranded
footwear to branded footwear continues and is expected to have a Production value forecast, USD bln
positive impact on the overall performance of footwear over the forecast
period. Consumption growth will be also driven by the expansion of the Source: (1) Euromonitor, (2) KPMG Analysis
middle class and increased number of working women. Besides, demand expected to increase. Moreover, the increasing number of people
for medical and therapeutic footwear such as extra-depth shoes for with active and healthy lifestyles has led to a fast increase in sports
diabetics, as well as shoes appropriate for medical professions, is footwear demand in Turkey.
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Turkey
mln units
3.7 0.3 1.1
0% 3.6 3.6 0.3 0.3 1.0
1% 10 0.3 0.9
1.0 Crossbody Bags
(9%) 0.3 0.9 4.3
mln
USD mln
Handbags 19 19 19
400
7.9% and 14%, correspondingly. Turkey was the Middle East’s top bags
and accessories exporting country in the analyzed period, with more than Crossbody Bags
397 373
50% average share in Middle East’s total bags and accessories exports. 365 362 362 361
Wallet and Coin Pouches
200
Turkey’s bags and accessories consumption in volume terms is
forecasted to rise at a CAGR of 5.2% during the period of 2017-2022. Other Small Bags
31 28 27 26 26 25
Although Turkey’s bags and accessories consumption in value terms in 0 44 42 42 42 42 42 Luggage
local currency (TRY) is forecasted to rise at a CAGR of 3.3% in the 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
analyzed period, due to forecasted depreciation of TRY against USD, the
CAGR of bags and accessories consumption in USD is negative – 2.2%. 0.68 0.65 0.64 0.63 0.63 0.63
According to Euromonitor International, the bags and accessories market
growth is moderate due to consumer price sensitivity and the willingness Production value forecast, USD bln
to delay purchases due to the continued effects of unstable economic
and political environment in Turkey. However, industry experts suggest Source: (1) Euromonitor, (2) KPMG Analysis
that the overall conditions in the country are likely to improve from 2018. in athletics and sports amongst the Turkish population. The
Moreover, bags and accessories is expected to continue recording increasing number of shopping centers that are expected to open
positive growth as there is increasing interest in fashion and participation throughout the country will attract more retail brands into Turkey.
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Turkey
China China
1% 9%
Viet Nam 16%
2% Italy
2%
2%
Italy
2% France
37% 3%
Indonesia 38%
4%
10%
676 Portugal 301 India
Spain 5% Hungary
USD million USD million
Cambodia Viet Nam
7%
14% India
Germany
Romania 7%
21% Other
Other 20%
Source: ITC Source: ITC
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Turkey
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Turkey
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Turkey
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Turkey
700
600
500
400
298
271 284
300
179 207
187
200 129
119
98
60 53 76 83 65
100 42 33
- 0.9
0
Waterproof footwear Footwear with Sports footwear Ski footwear Parts of footwear Footwear with Footwear Footwear with textile Footwear with Other footwear with
rubber or plastic wooden parts incorporating a uppers leather uppers plastic and rubber
uppers protective metal toe- parts
Production Consumption cap
Source: ITC, Eurostat
Note: (1) The mapping of the product labels is presented in Appendix 1
(2) The figures of consumption are estimated by KPMG
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Turkey
200
163
150 129
99
100 84 81
60
50 27 38
24 20 18
5 3 10 10
0
Trunks, suitcases, vanity Handbags Travelling bags Articles normally carried in Belts and bandoliers, of Clothing accessories of Articles of apparel of Articles for technical use,
cases, briefcases, school pocket or handbag leather or composition leather or composition leather or of composition of leather or composition
satchels and similar leather leather leather leather
containers of leather,
composition leather, Production Consumption
patent leather, plastics,
textile materials,
aluminium or other
materials
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Analysis of the footwear and bag manufacturing sectors in Turkey
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Cost structure analysis of
footwear, bags and
accessories sectors
Cost structure analysis of footwear, bags and accessories sectors
25.9%
4.0% 6.8% 7.0%
1.7% 2.1%
R&D Interest and tax Depreciation and Advertising and Selling and General and COGS Total cost
amortization marketing distribution costs administrative
Source: (1) Annual reports of the sector representatives
(2) KPMG Analysis
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Cost structure analysis of footwear, bags and accessories sectors
48.9% 100%
Bags and accessories sector cost structure
24.2%
11.3%
4.2% 7.1%
0.6% 3.7%
R&D Depreciation and Interest and tax Advertising and Selling and General and COGS Total cost
amortization marketing distribution administrative
Source: (1) Annual reports of the sector representatives
(2) KPMG Analysis
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Analysis of raw materials’
availability for the footwear,
bags and accessories
industries
Analysis of raw materials’ availability for the footwear, bags and accessories industries
Leather The raw materials used in footwear, bags and accessories production can be split into two main categories such as,
materials and energy commodities. The materials largely include natural materials such as cotton and leather.
Cotton
Three leading producers are China, Brazil, and Italy, which have earned reputations as countries that supply key
Nylon quantities of leather. Cotton production is dominated in India, China and USA, nevertheless Pakistan and Brazil also
have notable production volumes. The majority of farming is performed by small-scale farmers with individual holdings,
Polyester although they are sometimes supported by larger organizations. Cotton is then turned into textile (e.g. canvas) used in the
Rubber production of footwear, bags and accessories.
Plastic The energy commodities category mainly consists of oil for use in the production of synthetic polymers such as nylon
and polyester.
Oil Rubber is a key constituent of footwear and is produced both by natural means, i.e. from rubber trees, and also
synthetically by chemicals companies.
Sources: (1) Marketline, Global footwear report, March 2018, (2) KPMG Analysis
Key issues
- Animal welfare issues - The treatment and use of animals, for materials is a key consideration for producers of footwear, bags and
accessories. Much pressure has been applied in recent years to find synthetic alternatives and producers are increasingly aware of the
impact this can have on brand image. For instance, in January 2017, PETA acquired a stake in Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessey (LVMH)
in a bid to pressure it to stop selling shoes, bags and other products made from exotic animal skins.
- Issues to find sustainable textile solutions – With the development of the sector environmental pressures continue to mount.
Therefore, textile companies are working to develop sustainable materials that are not wholly dependent on oil as an input.
For instance, in 2015, Bayer MaterialScience developed Impranil eco, a new range of waterborne, bio-based polyurethane
dispersions which Bayer says will enable brand owners and manufacturers to address sustainability issues.
The trend towards bio solutions will continue.
Sources: (1) Marketline, Global footwear report, March 2018, (2) KPMG Analysis
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Analysis of raw materials’ availability for the footwear, bags and accessories industries
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Analysis of raw materials’ availability for the footwear, bags and accessories industries
In 2016 the top three Middle East countries by the cotton export value were Egypt, UAE and Israel with the export volumes equaling to 84
thousand tons, 21 thousand tons and 19 thousand tons correspondingly. The cotton export volumes of China and Turkey in 2016 equaled to
1.7 million tons and 413 thousand tons correspondingly.
The top exported products by the selected regions were as follows;
EU and CIS - Cotton, neither carded nor combed, the export value of which equaled to
EU - USD 507 million in 2016 (310 thousand tons)
CIS - USD 703 million in 2016 (463 thousand tons)
Middle East and Turkey - Denim, containing >= 85% cotton by weight and weighing > 200 g/m², made of yarn of different colors, the export
value of which equaled to
Middle East - USD 170 million in 2016 (24 thousand tons)
Turkey - USD 276 million in 2016 (32 thousand tons)
China - Plain woven fabrics of cotton, containing >= 85% cotton by weight and weighing > 100 g to 200 g/m², printed, the export value of
which equaled to USD 1.6 billion in 2016 (129 thousand tons)
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Analysis of raw materials’ availability for the footwear, bags and accessories industries
The plastic export volumes of China and Turkey in 2016 equaled to 8 million tons and 681 thousand tons correspondingly.
The top exported products by the selected regions were as follows;
EU - Polyethylene with a specific gravity of < 0,94, in primary forms, the export value of which equaled to USD 9.3 billion (6.7 million tons) in
2016
CIS and Middle East - Polyethylene with a specific gravity of >= 0,94, in primary forms, the export value of which equaled to
CIS - USD 542 million in 2016 (463 thousand tons)
Middle East - USD 9 billion in 2016 (8.6 million tons)
China – “Polyethylene terephthalate", in primary forms, the export value of which equaled to USD 1.9 billion in 2016 (2.2 million tons)
Turkey - Acrylic polymers, in primary forms (excluding “polymethyl methacrylate"), the export value of which equaled to USD 185 million in
2016 (174 thousand tons)
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Analysis of raw materials’ availability for the footwear, bags and accessories industries
Note: (2) The data on the nylon total export volumes of Israel is not available
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Analysis of raw materials’ availability for the footwear, bags and accessories industries
In 2016 the top three Middle East countries by the polyester export value were UAE, Iran and Egypt with the export volumes equaling to 154
thousand tons, 32 thousand tons and 19 thousand tons correspondingly. The polyester export volume of Turkey in 2016 equaled to 177
thousand tons.
The top exported products by the selected regions were as follows;
EU and Turkey - Woven fabrics of yarn containing >= 85% by weight of non-textured polyester filaments, incl. monofilament of >= 67
decitex and a maximum diameter of <= 1 mm, the export value of which equaled to
EU - USD 413 million in 2016 (32 thousand tons)
Turkey - USD 248 million in 2016 (23 thousand tons)
CIS - Staple fibres of polyesters, not carded, combed or otherwise processed for spinning, the export value of which equaled to USD 88
million in 2016 (86 thousand tons)
Middle East - Woven fabrics of yarn containing >= 85% by weight of textured polyester filaments, incl. monofilament of >= 67 decitex and a
maximum diameter of <= 1 mm, dyed, the export value of which equaled to USD 530 million in 2016 (90 thousand tons)
China2 - Woven fabrics of yarn containing >= 85% by weight of textured polyester filaments, incl. monofilament of >= 67 decitex and a
maximum diameter of <= 1 mm, dyed, the export value of which equaled to USD 5 billion in 2016 (608 thousand tons)
Note: (2) The data on the polyester total export volumes of China is not available
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Analysis of raw materials’ availability for the footwear, bags and accessories industries
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Analysis of raw materials’ availability for the footwear, bags and accessories industries
The oil export volumes of China and Turkey in 2016 equaled to 51 million tons and 7 million tons correspondingly. The top exported products
by the selected regions were as follows;
EU and China - Medium oils and preparations, of petroleum or bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, n.e.s., the export value of
which equaled to
EU - USD 86 billion in 2016 (223 million tons)
China - USD 15 billion in 2016 (39 million tons)
CIS - Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude, the export value of which equaled to USD 101 billion in 2016 (338
million tons)
Middle East - Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude, the export value of which equaled to USD 307 billion in
2016 (868 million tons)
Turkey - Light oils and preparations, of petroleum or bituminous minerals which >= 90% by volume "incl. losses" distil at 210°C "ASTM D 86
method" (excluding containing biodiesel), the export value of which equaled to USD 1.7 billion in 2016 (3.6 million tons)
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Appendices
Appendix 1
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 1
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 1
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 79
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 2
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 80
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 2
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 81
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 2
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 82
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 3
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 83
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 3
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 84
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 3
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 85
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 3
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 86
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 3
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 87
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 3
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 88
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 3
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 89
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 3
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 90
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 4
Note: All the classifications are performed based on the data provided by ITC
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 91
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 5
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 92
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Stage I : Evaluate the
potential of Georgia
Glossary of terms
CAGR The compound annual growth rate n/a Not available
EUR Euro, official currency of the European Union kWh Kilowatt hour
GEL Georgian Lari, official currency of Georgia VAT Value Added Tax
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Overview of
Georgia
Overview of Georgia
General overview
Georgia is located at the crossroads of Western Asia and Eastern Georgia with its advantageous location plays an important role in
— 3 international airports Europe, bounded to the west by the Black Sea, to the north by linking the east to the west. The countries’ main facilities include:
and two ports Russia, to the south by Turkey and Armenia, and to the southeast
• Black Sea ports – Batumi Sea Port and Poti Sea Port are
by Azerbaijan.
— Anaklia Deep Sea Port is already operating and Anaklia Sea Port is planned to start
Due to its location Georgia offers direct access to European, Gulf operations in 2020
planned to open in 2020, Cooperation Council and CIS markets. Additionally, Georgia is the
• Railway - with the total length of 2,084 km, covers almost full
that will be able to handle part of trans-Caspian corridor and is able to provide railway
territory of the country. During 2017, cargo of around 10.6
100 million tons of cargo transportation to the Republic of China by the shortest route
million tones were transported by the Georgian Railway to
per annum The capital and the largest city of Georgia is Tbilisi inhabited with different countries. The railway network terminates at the Black
around 30% of total population Sea giving easy access to on-shipment of cargo to the
— Railway link covering the Mediterranean basin and Europe
Country’s general information is as follows:
whole territory of Georgia • Road- total road lengths of 20,329 km. through Georgia
General Information
with easy access to the • Airports – three international airports in Tbilisi, Kutaisi and
Area 69,700 km2
ports Population 3,718,200 Batumi and two airports for domestic flights in Natakhtari and
Currency Georgian Lari (₾) (GEL) Mestia
— 4 free industrial zones
GDP per capita, 2017* 4,078 USD • Free Industrial Zones – Georgia has 4 FIZ (Tbilisi, Poti and 2 at
GDP real growth, 2017* 5% Kutaisi) in which business are exempt from all tax charges,
Workforce 1,998,300 except personal income tax
Unemployment rate 11.80%
Note: * Preliminary 2017
Population, workforce and unemployment rate as at 1 January 2017
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia
FIZ
FIZ
FIZ
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Overview of Georgia
Economic indicators
GDP by sectors, 2017* Inflation Rate
— Manufacturing is second
Agriculture, hunting Year Rate, %
largest sector with 10% of and forestry; fishing
Other sectors 8% 2015 4.0
GDP 23% 2016 2.1
2017 6.0
— GDP has been growing at Industry
Source: National Bank of Georgia
16%
an average CAGR of 2.7%
since 2015 According to the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) the targeted
Public inflation rate represents 3% for 2018-2020, as a result of
administration
— Targeted rate of inflation 9% introduction of the following policies: refinancing loans, one month
Construction open market operations (manage short-term interest rates on the
of 3% for 2018-2020 9%
interbank money market), standing facilities, certificates of
Real estate, renting
and business deposits, operations with government securities, foreign exchange
activities Transport and interventions, minimum reserve requirements and other
7% communication
10%
instruments.
Trade
18%
Foreign exchange rate tend to be seasonal with lower rates during
Note: * Preliminary 2017 summer period and higher during winter period, as a result of
Industry comprise of manufacturing; mining and quarrying; electricity, gas and water increased activities in Tourism industry
supply and processing of products by households
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia
3.06
2.83
2.62
2.52
GEL
3
2.51 2.49
2.37
2.27
2
2015 2016 2017 1Q 2018
USD EUR
Source: National Bank of Georgia
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Overview of Georgia
International Rankings
International Rankings of Georgia FDI by Sector 2017*
— Ease of Doing Business – Mining
Score (Out World Regional Other sectors 3% Manufacturing
9th place among 190 Index Year of 100) Rank Rank 9% 4%
countries worldwide Ease of doing Business 2018 N/A 9 N/A Energy sector
10%
Economic Freedom 2018 76 16 9 Financial sector
— Georgia’s credit ratings 16%
Corruption Perceptions 2017 56 46 1
are stable and positive for Safety 2018 80 5 N/A Construction
last 2 years Note: Regional rank: Europe for Economic Freedom and Eastern Europe and Central Asia for 16%
Corruption Perceptions
Real Estate
Source: The Heritage Foundation, Transparency International, Numbeo, United Nations
9%
— Around 60% of FDI Development Programme, The World Bank
Hotels and
represents the following Credit Ratings restaurants
5%
sectors: transportation Credit Rating Agency Date Rating Outlook Transports and
communications
and communications, Fitch 2018 BB- Positive 28%
Note: *Preliminary 2017
financial services and Moody's 2017 Ba2 Stable Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia
S&P 2017 BB- Stable
construction
Source: Fitch Ratings, Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s
FDI by Country, 2017*
— FDI in manufacturing
Key components for Ease of doing business rating: Other
Cyprus 11%
sector comprised around Azerbaijan
— companies and property registration within 2 days and 1 day, China 2%
3% 26%
USD75 million during respectively
Panama
2017 3%
— time for export documentary preparation of 2 hours and for UAE
border procedures of 15 hours 3%
USA
4%
Netherlans
12% UK
14%
Note: *Preliminary 2017
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Overview of Georgia
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 99
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Overview of Georgia
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 100
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Overview of Georgia
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Overview of
manufacturing of
footwear, bags and
accessories market in
Georgia
Overview of manufacturing of footwear, bags and accessories market in Georgia
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Overview of manufacturing of footwear, bags and accessories market in Georgia
Armenia
Turkey 73%
21%
Source: International Trade Centre-Trade Map Source: International Trade Centre-Trade Map
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Overview of manufacturing of footwear, bags and accessories market in Georgia
average by CAGR of 10% Trunks, cases (suit, camera, jewelry, cutlery), Trunks, cases (suit, camera, jewelry, cutlery), bags
bags (travel, tool, similar), wholly or mainly (travel, tool, similar), wholly or mainly covered by
since 2015 1,239 470 717
covered by leather, composition leather, 12,125 12,799 16,437 leather, composition leather, plastic sheeting, textile
plastic sheeting, textile materials, vulcanised materials, vulcanized fibre, paperboard
China is top importer of fibre, paperboard
Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, of
bags and accessories in 63 98 54
Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, of leather or composition leather
1,722 2,343 1,885
Georgia leather or composition leather
Articles of leather or composition leather not
1 - 1
Articles of leather or composition leather not elsewhere classified
Export to Armenia and elsewhere classified
147 121 174
1,303 568 772
Azerbaijan comprise more Saddlery and harness for any animal of any
75 86 107 Note: *Preliminary 2017
than 60% of total export material Source: International Trade Centre-Trade Map, The National Statistics Office of Georgia
Spain Armenia
6% Israel 54%
10%
Turkey
9% Italy
10% Azerbaijan
12%
Note: *Preliminary 2017 Note: *Preliminary 2017
Source: International Trade Centre-Trade Map Source: International Trade Centre-Trade Map
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Overview of manufacturing of footwear, bags and accessories market in Georgia
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Overview of labor
force
Overview of labor force
Unemployment rate,%
Active population (labour force), total 1,991 2,022 1,998 25 21.6
Employed 1,745 1,780 1,763
20 16.1
Hired 692 753 745
15 12.8 11.9
Self-employed 1,046 1,018 1,011 11.2
9.7
Not-identified worker 7 8 7 10
6.0 5.3
Unemployed 246 242 235 5 1.5
Population outside labour force 1,004 958 963 0
Unemployment rate, % 12.4 12.0 11.8 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+
Note: Population outside labor force represents individuals who did not work during last 7 days Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia
and no actively seeking a job during last 4 weeks. Also a person who was seeking a
job for the last 4 weeks, however in case of acceptance was not ready to start work for
the next 2 weeks
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia
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Overview of labor force
USD
600 535 508 530
483 499 484
per month is within the 500 386 397 Manufacturing of Footwear 93 80
400 328 334 340
243 276 264 Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia
actual gross salary ranges 300 227
200
of USD265 – USD625 100
0 Labor Code, amended in 2015
identified as a result of Legal Age 16 years old
interviews Minimum wage no minimum wage requirements
Probationary period up to 6 months
Average gross salaries for
Standard working
footwear production hours 40 hours per week (48 hours for specified sectors)
amounts to USD80 per the Note: USD/GEL Average Exchange rate of year 2016 - 2.367 to be agreed between employer and emploee. Rest
Source: National Statistics Office of Georgia time of minimum 12 hours between working
statistical information, Overtimes and shifts days/shifts
however the actual gross Average monthly gross earnings for industry per regions, 2016 Payment for more than for standard hours, exact rate to be
salary identified during the overtimes agreed between employer and emploee
600 Holidays 24 working days paid and 15 days unpaid annually
interviews ranges from 500
400 Upon parties agreement but not more than 183
USD
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Overview of labor force
Overview of trainings
Overview of training courses in Georgia Some of the centers provide courses based on modules and
Training courses are students are able to take them partially. In such cases timeframe to
available both in eastern We have performed research of training centers (“centers”) in
receive the certificate increases accordingly
Georgia for the specialist in footwear, bags and accessories sector
and western parts of and identified 14 training centers from different cities of Georgia: In addition, 11 out of 14 training centers mentioned that in case of
Georgia Tbilisi, Kutaisi, Batumi, Mestia, Akhaltsikhe, Mtskheta, Telavi, Gori, request, they can develop special short-term training programs
Ozurgeti, Tsalenjixa, Poti. See Appendix 2 for the details. according to the customer’s requirements. The terms and cost of
Some of training centers special short-term trainings vary upon the requirements.
Based on the interviews we identified that:
already have experience of Three training centers mentioned that they have already provided
Footwear production training courses is provided by 3
providing special short special training courses for Turkish investor, who wanted to retrain
centers in Tbilisi and Kutaisi with average length of the
the staff
term courses as per course of 16 months
investors requirements Bags and accessories (textile production) training courses
is provided by all 14 training centers in different cities of
Georgia (Tbilisi, Kutaisi, Batumi, Gori, Mestia, etc) with the
average length of the course of 20 months
Timeframe of trainings vary per training center and methodology of
the courses. Program courses are fixed and students need to finish
it fully to receive a certificate. The programs are mainly financed by
the Government and special exams have to be passed by a
candidate to become eligible for the program. The standard annual
fee for the programs is GEL2,250 per annum
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Overview of costs
Overview of costs
Water and Gas Costs (including 18% VAT) Overview of company set-up costs
— Electricity costs range
USD Unit Average Rate Maximum Rate — The state registration in Georgia is performed by National
between USD 0.0598 to
Water m3 1.61 1.97 Agency of Public Registry (NAPR)
USD0.0858 per kWh to be agreed between company and supplier of free
Gas — The registration should be carried out within one working day
choice, average rate of 0.3 per cubic meter
— Cost of water ranges Note: Exchange Rate Used – 2.49 (Average for 1Q 2018) after submitting all required documentation to the NAPR and
Source: Georgian national Energy and Water Supply Regulatory Commission paying a state due in the amount of GEL 100 (approximately
between USD1.61 to
Electricity Costs per kWh (including 18% VAT) USD 40)
USD1.97 per m3
Telasi (tariff Energo-Pro Georgia — A representative office/LLC can be registered on the same day
— Average cost of gas per USD cents for Tbilisi) (Tariff for regions) of submission of documentation and the state due payable is
35-110 kv 6.48 5.98 GEL 200 (approximately USD 80)
cubic meter amount to
6-10 kv 6.79 6.54
USD0.3 cent — All copies of documentation provided from the country of
220/380 Volt 8.58 8.48 incorporation of the Company are to be notarized and
Note: Exchange Rate Used – 2.485 (Average for I/IV 2018)
Source: Georgian national Energy and Water Supply Regulatory Commission
apostilled/legalized in that country (where possible), if any.
Afterwards the documents are to be translated into Georgian
Overview of utility costs
and notarized in Georgia
— Maximum rates of electricity and water are regulated by the
— Normally the translation costs amount of GEL 15-20
GoG, but rates differ depending on the region (and voltage, in
(approximately USD 6-10) per each translated standard page
case of electricity)
— According to the special Decree issued by the Ministry of
Energy of Georgia, a company has an option to register as a Overview of industrial land plot costs
direct consumer of electricity if its annual consumption is no less
Average industrial land plot costs for the Government of Georgia
than 1kW and negotiate the electricity price directly with the
land plots auction results for 2016 and 2017 are as follows:
producer
- Samegrelo and High Svaneti: Poti-USD29; Senaki-USD5
— Natural gas rates are deregulated for industrial use and
companies have the freedom to choose any of the suppliers - Guria: Ozurgeti- USD2; Lanchkhuti- USD7
operating in Georgia and negotiate rates with them
- Kartli (Gardabani): USD3
— We have not been provided with cost of utilities in amount terms
by companies operating in the sector. Most of them indicating See appendix 3 for the details
that the cost of utility is not material and amount up to 2% of
total costs
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Overview of access to
finance and support
mechanisms
Overview of access to finance and support mechanisms
Access to finance
The Government of Georgia proposes the following incentives in
— Companies investing in order to encourage business initiatives and export:
Georgia benefit from
— Produce in Georgia
support with access to
The state program “Produce in Georgia” is being implemented by
finance, both equity and
the initiative of the GoG. The program aims to develop and support
debt the entrepreneurship, as well as creation of new enterprises and
increasing the export potential of the country. In addition, the
program aims to encourage manufacturing and agriculture
industries in Georgia, and it offers two main incentives: financial
resources and infrastructure (land, building, etc.):
• Support with financial resources: If a company gets GEL
denominated loan from a bank (GEL150,000-GEL5,000,000),
the GoG will provide interest expense financing up to 10% for 2
years, including partial collateral guarantee (up to 50% but not
exceeding GEL2,500,000). In addition, GoG provides co-
financing of the annual interest rate for leases between
GEL100,000-GEL5,000,000 up to 12% and for the first 2 years
— JSC Partnership Fund
JSC Partnership Fund (PF) is a state owned investment fund
incorporated in 2011, with the main objective to promote
investment in Georgia by providing co-financing (equity,
convertible/non-covertible loans) in projects at their initial stage of
development with the following criterias:
A potential investor should possess financial resources in form
of equity to co-fund proposed investment project
PF participation should not exceed 50% of the total investment
Exit period of 3-7 years, as per proposed investment projection
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Overview of access to finance and support mechanisms
Infrastructural support
In addition to the loan financing, described in previous slide, state For the approval of the state property transfer to a business
— Free of charge transfer of program “Produce in Georgia” provides infrastructural support as entity requirements listed below should be met:
immovable property is follows.
Enterprise should be registered and start operation within 2
one of the support — Support with infrastructure: GoG provides state owned years after the issuance of the relevant Act of the Government
mechanisms for the immovable property free of charge to companies with of Georgia
investment obligations for new projects (new factory or Total investment should equal the market price of the
companies investing in
enlargement of existing one). Investment obligation states that transferred property multiplied by 6, if the property is located in
Georgia the enterprise should invest at least 6 times more than the Tbilisi or multiplied by 4, if the property is located in other
market price of the property in Tbilisi and 4 times more than regions of Georgia
the market price of the property in regions Minimum 25% of the total investment calculated using the
method described above should be made in the first year, the
Under the program of the Government of Georgia -Enterprise
rest of the investment till the end of second year
Georgia, land plots listed on the webpage of the National Agency
No changes are allowed in the production profile during the first
of State Property can be purchased at the symbolic price of
two years
GEL1
During the first year output of the enterprise should be no less
The beneficiary of the program should be a non-government legal than 25% of the projected annual output and 50% during the
entity registered in compliance with the “Law of Georgia on second year
Entrepreneurs” and the end product of the enterprise should be Upon submission of the documentation to the National Agency
listed on the program priority list approved by the GoG. of the State property, an irrevocable bank guarantee equivalent
Manufacturing of Footwear and Bags and accessories is included to 10% of the investment with validity period of 30 months has
in the priority list to be presented
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Overview of access to finance and support mechanisms
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Appendices
Appendix 1
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 118
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 2
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 119
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 3
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Stage I I: Benchmarking
of Georgia with
competitor countries
Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
Geographical position – geographically close countries, such as Turkey, can be serious competitors for Georgia;
GDP per capita – countries with comparable GDP per capita in EU and CIS are selected, in order to be able to compare economies that
have close development levels to that of Georgia, such as Ukraine, Poland and Romania;
Manufacturing level of branded products – countries which have low labor costs and are preferable destinations for global brands to
expand their operations, such as Vietnam
The list of countries included in the benchmark analysis have been agreed with the client. The results of the analysis show Georgia’s position
among the selected countries and their median for each indicator.
The table below illustrates the indicators which have been analyzed.
Indicators used in the benchmark analysis
Working regime Remuneration Utility costs Other costs
Average per square meter
Working hours per month Minimum wage Electricity tariff
price of industrial lands
Country average salary in
Available Working days per month Water tariff Construction cost per sq. m.
manufacturing sector
information
Number of holidays
Number of vacation days
Paid maternity leave duration
Unpaid maternity leave duration
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
Low labor costs, Georgia’s average salary in manufacturing sector is 51% lower than the median of the benchmark analysis
Flexible regulations in terms of overtime salary and leave compensation in Georgia
Low electricity tariff, Georgia’s industrial tariff of electricity is 5.5% lower than the median of the benchmark analysis
Low water tariff, despite the fact that Georgia’s water tariff exceeds the median of benchmark analysis by 41.4%, the indicator in
Poland and Turkey exceeds Georgia’s water tariff by 83.4% and 29.2% correspondingly
Low prices of industrial lands, Georgia’s average per square meter price of industrial lands is 16 times lower than the median of the
benchmark analysis
Low construction costs, Georgia’s construction costs per sq.m. of industrial lands is 25% lower than the median of the benchmark
analysis
Despite a thorough on-desk research was conducted to collect the data needed for the benchmark analysis, due to the unavailability of the
required information in the public sources, some of the indicators are not included in the benchmark analysis. The indicators are as follows:
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
Number of working hours Number of vacation days Minimum wage, USD** Electricity tariffs, USD, 2017 Average per square meter
per month per year price of industrial lands,
USD, 2017
Median Median Georgia Median Georgia Median Georgia Median
160 Georgia 20 24 469 0.07 0.08 5.6 90
160 192 12 376
120 556 0.1
Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max
Number of working days Paid maternity leave Average salary in Water tariffs, USD, 2017 Construction costs per
per month* duration, months*** manufacturing sector, USD, sq.m., USD, 2017
2017
Median Georgia Median Median Georgia Georgia Median
Median 361 736 319 426
20 1.24 1.76
6
24 4 12 235 1,864 0.53 3.23 443
Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max
* Number of working days per month in Georgia is agreed between the employer and the employee. Rest time of minimum 12 hours between working days/shifts
** In Georgia no minimum wage is set by the Government
*** According to the Labor code of Georgia the private companies are not obliged to pay for the maternity leave
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
0
Georgia Poland Romania Ukraine Vietnam Turkey
Source: Labour code of each country
*Note: The number of working days per month is based on the assumption that there are 4 working weeks per month
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
USD
300
400 Georgia, 230
200 147 300 230 214 228
120
200
100
100
-
0 0
Georgia Poland Romania Ukraine Vietnam Turkey Georgia Poland Romania Ukraine Vietnam Turkey
Source: (1) Labour code of each country (2) Trading Economics (www.tradingeconomics.com) Source: (1) polsha.com, (2) mybusiness.md, (3) State Statistics Service of Ukraine
(3) countryeconomy.com (4) Asia-Pacific Garment and Footwear Sector Research Note 8, (5) zarplatyinfo.ru
(6) KPMG Analysis
Average gross salary in manufacturing sector, 2017 The minimum wage in the analyzed countries ranges from USD 120 to
USD 556 per month. In Georgia, no minimum wage is set. The median
2,000 1,864
value is USD 469.
1,800
1,600
The average salary in the manufacturing sector in the analyzed
1,400 Median, 736
countries ranges from USD 235 to USD 1,864. Georgia’s average
1,200
1,138 salary in the manufacturing sector is USD 361, which is 51% lower
than the median value. Georgia’s average salary in the manufacturing
USD
1,000
800
736
Georgia, 361
sector is about 81% lower than the maximum value and 53.8% higher
600
than the minimum value.
361
400 274 235
The average salary in the sub-sector of garment and footwear in the
200 analyzed countries ranges from USD 214 to USD 860. Georgia’s
0 average salary in the sub-sector of garment and footwear sector is
Georgia Poland Romania Ukraine Vietnam Turkey USD 230, which is 58.7% lower than the median value. Georgia’s
Source: (1) Trading Economics (www.tradingeconomics.com)
(2) State Statistics Service of Ukraine (www.ukrstat.org)
average salary in the manufacturing sector is about 73.3% lower than
(3) Salary Explorer (www.salaryexplorer.com) the maximum value and 7.3% higher than the minimum value.
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
Median, 6
6 6
5 4 4
-
0
Georgia Poland Romania Ukraine Vietnam Turkey
Source: (1) Labour code of each country
(2) Maternity and paternity leave in the EU, European Parlament
Unpaid maternity leave duration The duration of unpaid maternity leave in the analyzed countries
50 ranges from 6 to 34 months.
40 Georgia provides 18 months of unpaid maternity leave, which is
34
20% higher than the median value. Georgia’s unpaid maternity
30
Georgia, 18
leave duration is about 47% lower than the maximum value and 3
months
24
Median, 15 times higher than the minimum value.
20 18
10 6 6
-
0
Georgia Poland Romania Ukraine Vietnam Turkey
Source: (1) Labour code of each country
(2) Maternity and paternity leave in the EU, European Parlament
Note: (1) According to the Labor code of Vietnam the duration of unpaid maternity leave may be agreed by
the employee and the employer and no limit is set by the legislation
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
Average price and construction costs of one square meter industrial land
Average per square meter price of industrial lands, 2017 The average price for one square meter of industrial land in the
400 376
analyzed countries ranges from USD 5.6 per square meter to USD
339
376 per square meter.
300
Georgia has the lowest per square meter price of industrial lands,
which is 16 times lower than the median value and 67 times lower
USD
200
100
-
0
Georgia Poland Romania Ukraine Vietnam Turkey
Source: (1) International Construction Market Survey, 2016,2017, Turner and Townsen
(2) www.casebinefacute.ro, (3) Vietnam report, Construction market update, June 2017
Note: (1) The latest data on construction costs for Poland was available for the year of 2016, which was adjusted by
the inflation rate to arrive to 2017., (2) Only construction costs in the city of HO CHI MINH was available for Vietnam
(2) The data on Ukraine was not available
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
0.10
Georgia’s electricity tariff for industrial customers is 28% lower than
0.1 0.09 the maximum value and 2.2% higher than the minimum value.
0.07 0.07 0.08 0.07
Georgia, 0.07
0.0
Georgia Poland Romania Ukraine Vietnam Turkey
Source: (1) Eurostat (www.ec.europa.eu/Eurostat) (2) Kievenergo (www. dtek-kem.com.ua)
(3) Vietnam Electricity (www.en.evn.com.vn) (5) Energo-Pro Georgia (www.energo-pro.ge)
Water tariffs, 2017 The average water tariff for industrial customers in the analyzed
4.0 countries ranges from USD 0.53 per cubic meter to USD 3.23 per
3.23 cubic meter.
3.0 Georgia, 1.76 Georgia’s water tariff for industrial customers is equal to USD 1.76
USD per sq.m.
2.27
Median, 1.24 per cubic meter, which is 41% higher than the median value.
2.0 1.76 Georgia’s water tariff for industrial customers is 46% lower than the
1.24 maximum value and about 3 times higher than the minimum value.
1.0 It is worth mentioning that in Romania there are 1,077 Water and
0.53 0.55
Wastewater Services (WWS) operators, covering 100% of the
0.0
market. The WWS market is therefore liberalized. For the purpose
Georgia Poland Romania Ukraine Vietnam Turkey of the benchmark analysis, the average water tariff for Romania is
Source: (1) Miejskie Przedsiębiorstwo Gospodarki Komunalnej Sp. z o. o. (2) ПрАТ "АК "Київводоканал"
(3) National Romanian Regulator for Public Services - ANRSC (Romania)
calculated based on tariffs of two key private Operators (Apa Nova
(4) Sai Gon Water Supply Corporation, Ho Chi Minh City(Vietnam) (5) Invest in Turkey (www.invest.gov.tr) Bucuresti and Apa Nova Ploiesti).
(6) Georgian Water and Power
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
An employment contract can be signed for a trial period, for According to Polish law, temporary work
a non-fixed term, as well as for a fixed term (including to shall be understood as seasonal,
replace an employee - in the event of his or her justified periodic, or casual work; or work that the
For overtime hours worked, the employee
absence from work; the employer can hire another worker employees of the user-undertaking
is entitled, in addition to his normal salary,
under a fixed term employment contract for the period of would not be able to perform on time;
to a supplement of:
absence). or work that falls within the scope of
- 100% of pay for working nights, Sundays
An employment contract for a trial period can be entered duties of an employee of the user-
and bank holidays, which are not, under
into force for no more than three months in order to check undertaking who is absent.
his work schedule, the employee’s working
the employee’s qualifications and whether he/she can be In accordance with the The legal scheme of temporary
days, or days off given to the employee in
employed to carry out a specific type of work. provisions of Article 87 par. employment is the following:
lieu of Sundays or bank holidays worked in
An employment contract is concluded in writing and should 1 of the Law, a foreigner is - A temporary work agency conducts a
accordance with his work schedule
Poland be signed no later than on the day the employee starts entitled to perform work in contract with a user-undertaking setting
- 50% of his salary for working overtime on
working. If no contract is signed, then the employee shouldthe Republic of Poland if at forth the rules of leasing of the
any day other than those mentioned above
be provided with written confirmation of the contract least one of 13 criteria listed temporary employee;
- 100% of his salary for every overtime
conditions before he/she is allowed to start work. Any in the law is met. - The temporary work agency employs a
hour worked above the average weekly
changes in employment contract conditions should also be temporary employee;
norm in the reference period, unless the
made in writing. - The temporary work agency assigns
norm was exceeded as a result of overtime
the temporary employee to perform
for which the employee is entitled to
In case of firing an employee, the length of the notice temporary work for the user-undertaking.
receive the supplements mentioned in the
period (2 weeks to 3 months) depends on the type of It shall be noted that the user-
points above
contract and the position held by the employee. During the undertaking instructs the temporary
notice period, the employee is entitled to receive his/her employee and subsequently supervises
normal salary. his performance.
Source: Labor Codes of Georgia and Poland
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
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Benchmark analysis of Georgia with competitor countries
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Stage IV: Investment
Proposals footwear, bag &
accessories manufacturing
in Georgia
Investment proposal
for leather footwear
manufacturing
Georgia’s competitive advantage in manufacturing leather footwear (1/3)
Strategic location – Georgia’s strategic location is an asset to Training Centers – Trainings for the footwear specialists are
Given Georgia’s location, any investor. As a bridge between Europe and Asia, Georgia available in Tbilisi and Kutaisi (total of 3 centers). The average
infrastructure and its offers direct access to European, Gulf Cooperation Countries length of courses is 16 months. In addition, there are training
favorable economic and and CIS markets. Additionally, Georgia is the part of trans- centers for textile specialists in different cities of Georgia with
Caspian corridor and is able to provide railway transportation average length of course of 20 months. As a result of interviews
political position in the to the Republic of China by the shortest route. Its three major we identified that most training centers can provide special
region, the country is a oil and gas pipelines, Black Sea ports, well-developed railway short-term training courses per investors request and some of
favorable location for systems, together with its international airports are playing an them already have such experience. The terms and cost of
increasingly important role in linking the East and West training vary upon the requirements. The majority of long term
investment trainings provided by the training centers are financed by the
Labor cost in footwear manufacturing – Average gross salary
Government with the standard annual fee of GEL2,250 per
per month for footwear manufacturing specialists ranges
annum.
between USD155 – USD420, according to the inquiry of local
companies in the industry
Low electricity cost – Electricity costs for industrial consumers
range between USD 0.0598 to USD0.0858 per kWh
Raw Materials – Georgia itself may not be the producer of
some of the key raw materials in sufficient volume terms,
however advantageous location of Georgia gives ability to
import materials from abroad easily. We identified 5 leather
manufacturer companies operating in Georgia. The raw
materials for leather production are purchased locally, while
end product is mainly exported to Turkey and Italy.
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Georgia’s competitive advantage in manufacturing leather footwear (2/3)
Access to finance - Companies investing in Georgia benefit Low tax rates and transparent tax system
Companies investing in from support with access to finance, both equity and debt: Tax rates in Georgia
Georgia benefit from
1. The state program “Produce in Georgia” aims to develop and Personal Income Tax 20%
support with access to support the entrepreneurship, as well as creation of new Corporate profit tax 15%
finance, both equity and enterprises and increasing the export potential of the country. VAT 18%
In addition, the program aims to encourage manufacturing Customs/Import tax 0%, 5% or 12%
debt
industry in Georgia, and it offers support with financial
1. Land tax: GEL 0.24 per square meter
Free of charge transfer of resources via interest expense financing for loans received non-agricultural land plot, that can be
from local banks adjusted by a territorial coefficient not
immovable property is one Property tax
exceeding 1.5, determined by the local
2. JSC Partnership Fund (PF) is a state owned investment fund,
of the support municipality
main objective of which is to promote investment in Georgia by 2. Other property tax: Up to 1%
mechanisms for the providing co-financing (equity, convertible/non-convertible
Excise tax Per type of good
companies investing in loans) in projects at their initial stage of development
Source: Georgian Tax Code
Georgia Infrastructural support – In addition to the support mentioned
above, Produce in Georgia also offers the following VAT on Export/Re-export – The export/re-export of goods is
New profit tax rule is infrastructure support: Government of Georgia provides state exempt from VAT with a right to credit input VAT (i.e. like a
owned immovable property free of charge to companies with zero-rated transaction)
effective from 1 January
investment obligations for new projects (new factory or Inward Processing Customs Regime – If the goods of foreign
2017 according to which enlargement of existing one). Investment obligation states that origin undergoes processing in Georgia and the product
Profit taxation shifts from the enterprise should invest at least 6 times more than the obtained as a result of the processing is exported, no taxes are
the moment of earning the market price of the property in Tbilisi and 4 times more than the levied on this operation
market price of the property in region, see appendix 1 for the
profits to the moment of potential state owned properties to be used for footwear Foreign-source income of individuals is fully exempted
their distribution manufacturing factory construction Double taxation treaties - Georgia has approximately 54
Free Industrial Zones – Georgia has four industrial zones, in effective Double Taxation Treaties (DTTs). The rules and
Double taxation treaties
which businesses are exempted from all tax charges, except procedures for the application of tax concessions set by the
with 54 countries personal income tax. If a company imports products from FIZ to provisions of DTT is determined by the Minister of Finance of
other territory of Georgia, it has to pay VAT and 4% of revenue Georgia. According to the DTTs, the income is subject to
Special customs regime from national sales. Besides tax payments, companies exemption or lower rate withholding tax
for exporters registered in FIZ also benefit from: simplified procedures and
transactions in any currency, exemption from majority of
licenses/permits , etc
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Georgia’s competitive advantage in manufacturing leather footwear (3/3)
Georgia’s preferential trade regimes — CIS
— Georgia benefits from
zero import tax to EU for Georgia has signed deep and comprehensive free trade area According to the requirements for the Certificate of Origin for CIS in
(DCFTA) which apart from other areas considers removing case materials used in footwear manufacturing are not entirely
footwear which otherwise customs duties on imports and exports of certain goods. originated in Georgia, then such materials should have undergone
amount up to 17% sufficient working or processing in Georgia, that means:
In addition, Georgia has signed Free Trade Agreements with
China, Turkey and CIS, resulting in beneficial customs tax rates for 1.The final product commodity sub code should be different from
— Georgia benefits from
export of goods that of the imported materials; and
zero import tax to Turkey
Standard import tax rates for footwear product that are fully 2. Total value of imported materials used in manufacturing of the
and CIS for footwear
eliminated vary by product and represent up to 17% for EU and product should not exceed 51% of the ex-works price of the
which otherwise amount Turkey and up to 30% for CIS countries. product
up to 30% To benefit from this regime, the Rule of Origin must be fulfilled,
criteria of which vary per country.
Criteria for Certificate of Origin
— EU and Turkey
The criteria of Certificate of Origin is nearly the same for EU and
Turkey and states that in case materials used in footwear
manufacturing are not entirely originated in Georgia, then such
materials should have undergone sufficient working or processing
in Georgia meaning that the final product commodity sub code
should be different from the code of used materials.
Despite the above, there is one exemption that footwear (group 64)
should be manufactured from materials of any heading, except
from assemblies of uppers affixed to inner soles or to other sole
components of heading 6406 (parts of footwear).
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Overview of raw materials for leather footwear
Key raw materials used in manufacturing leather footwear
Leather The raw materials used in footwear production can be split into two main categories such as, materials and energy
commodities. The materials largely include natural materials such as cotton and leather.
Cotton
Three leading producers are China, Brazil, and Italy, which have earned reputations as countries that supply key
Canvas quantities of leather. Cotton production is dominated by India, China and USA, nevertheless Pakistan and Brazil also
have notable production volumes. The majority of farming is performed by small-scale farmers with individual holdings,
Nylon although they are sometimes supported by larger organizations. Cotton is then turned into textile (e.g. canvas) used in the
Polyester production of footwear.
Rubber The energy commodities category mainly consists of oil for use in the production of synthetic polymers such as nylon
and polyester.
Plastic Rubber is a key constituent of footwear and is produced both by natural means, i.e. from rubber trees, and also
Oil synthetically by chemicals companies.
Plastic is widely used for manufacturing the different types of footwear. Main manufacturers of Plastic are China, USA and
Germany.
Sources: (1) Marketline, Global footwear report, March 2018, (2) KPMG Analysis
Production inputs
Purchases of raw materials account for significant portion of the production costs of the firms operating in the industry.
Main raw material inputs used in the footwear sector include production materials (e.g. leather, rubber, plastic compounds, foam, leather, and canvas, accessory materials
(e.g. precious metals and stones) and packing materials.
We have identified 5 leather manufacturer companies operating in Georgia. The raw materials for leather production are purchased locally, while end product is mainly
exported to Turkey and Italy. However, the production may not be sufficient in volume terms
Dealers/merchants are the key suppliers of materials. Main raw material supply countries are located in Asia and Europe.
Sources: (1) Marketline, Global footwear report, March 2018, (2) KPMG Analysis
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Optimal industry capacity
In order to understand the optimal capacity of production of footwear in Georgia, we analyzed potential consumption of the Georgian production by following countries of the
region (EU, CIS, Middle East, China, Turkey), assuming that significant part of the products will be exported to these countries. We calculated the gap between import and
export in these countries, as well as the selling price for the imported leather footwear, and identified the countries which can potentially become export markets for Georgia.
Based on the analysis of the above factors, we calculated approximate share of the potential import of leather footwear by Georgia to these countries. As per conservative view
point we only used around 1% of total EU share, however there is potential of a bigger share of the EU import market to be taken by Georgia in case of higher investment.
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Optimal industry capacity and estimated investment
The analysis shows, there is a gap between the import and export in most of the selected countries, except for China, Iran and Moldova. The gap in these countries is negative,
which shows that the export exceeds import. We considered that the possibility to access these market is low, therefore didn’t consider China, Iran and Moldova as a potential
consumers of the Georgian production. In addition, we analyzed the selling price of imported products and considered that the benefits from entering the following markets is
low: Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. Further, we assumed that since most of raw materials are expected to come from China and Turkey we think that the potential for
export to these countries is low.
As for other countries/regions, the import/export gap is significant. Notwithstanding the existence of the production facilities in the most of the countries/regions, the demand
exceeds supply and there is a potential for other supplier to enter these markets. As an example, the gap between the import/export in Russian is USD557.6 million. Considering
the distance factor, as well as ease of access of Georgia to Russia, i.e. common border, we assumed that Georgia might potentially take up some share of the imports. We
analyzed import to EU counties in total, as considering the signed DCFTA and the significant import/export gap within EU market, as well the Georgia’s location, we believe that
Georgia has a good potential to access EU market.
As Georgia’s consumption compared to the selected market is not significant, we didn’t add any additional quantity to the potential volume. We estimated that potential share of
import from Georgia in EU, Turkey and selected countries of CIS and Middle East will be 1% to 5% of the total imports as shown on previous slide. Because the amount of
import/export of leather footwear is mostly measured in tons and the data wasn’t available in units, we estimated average weight of one pair of sports and textile upper footwear
and calculated amounts in pairs. Thus, based on the calculations of import/export data, the optimal capacity of the production in Georgia would be around 8,446,000 pairs per
year.
In order to estimate the approximate investment for a manufacturing facility with the capacity of 8,446,000 pairs per year, we searched for similar projects. We have identified
the following investments:
— one planned project for textile manufacturing with investment amount of USD15 million, except land cost for 3,000 employees. The investment amount was adjusted for land
costs to arrive at total investment amount for the calculation.
— Nike has opened USD60 million factory for 5,500 employees in Indonesia
Based on the information on the investment amount, cost of land, number of workers and amount of pairs produced by one worker per year, we calculated the estimated
investment at USD33.7 million. This is an approximate amount, as in Georgia are not many similar investment projects to be compared to. This is an approximate amount, as
factors specific to Georgia and availability of technologies have not been specifically considered.
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Financial
projections
Key assumptions
• Construction period was forecast to last one year Construction project details
Based on the data gathered
Investment, USD'000 33,743
and analyzed, we have • Capacity utilization was forecast to reach 50% in the second Capacity, units'000 8,446
performed high level financial projection period and further increase by 25% YoY reaching
Number of employee 3,723
100% in the 4th projection period
calculations for the potential Investment per employee, USD 9,063
project on producing different Construction timeline 1
• The delay in the launch of the production is due to the
kinds of leather footwear in forecasted plant construction period. The delay in reaching full Annual maintenance CAPEX, USD'000 1,687
forecasted capacity of the production is due to the estimated Domestic sales, % -
Georgia. The more detailed
time needed for marketing the product and building brand Export sales, % 100
description of the recognition, as well as considering learning curve effect. Source: KPMG Analysis
assumptions and relevant
• Based on the data provided by Damodaran, industry average
calculations are provided • During the forecasted period the maximum capacity has been
capital structure of the industry comprises of 10%-25% of debt
estimated as the nominal capacity determined based on the
further on and 75%-90% of equity. The capital structure of the project was
analysis of the data obtained during the research, i.e. potential
assumed to be the same as industry average
debottlenecking of production has not been considered.
• As per the Georgian tax code, the amount of taxation for profit
tax is shifted from when profits are earned to when they are
distributed. Therefor we calculated taxes from free cash flow
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Financial performance
We have assumed projection period of 10 years, followed by terminal period. The construction of factory is expected to be finished by the end of the first projection period, after
which the plant will be commenced.
Gross and EBITDA margins were forecast to amount to 39.7% and 7.5%, respectively throughout the forecast and terminal periods. EBT margin was projected to vary between
5.6% and 6.6%. The COGS and the SG&A expenses have been calculated based on the industry average margins published in CapitalIQ.
Revenue - 93,203 141,622 192,228 195,880 198,818 201,999 205,231 208,515 211,851 215,241
Growth 52.0% 35.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
COGS - (56,248) (85,469) (116,009) (118,214) (119,987) (121,907) (123,857) (125,839) (127,852) (129,898)
Gross profit - 36,955 56,153 76,218 77,666 78,831 80,093 81,374 82,676 83,999 85,343
Gross profit margin 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7%
SG&A - (29,965) (45,531) (61,801) (62,975) (63,920) (64,943) (65,982) (67,038) (68,110) (69,200)
EBITDA - 6,990 10,622 14,417 14,691 14,911 15,150 15,392 15,639 15,889 16,143
EBITDA margin 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
Financial Depreciation (1,764) (1,787) (1,819) (1,854) (1,881) (1,911) (1,942) (1,973) (2,005) (2,037)
EBT - 5,226 8,835 12,598 12,837 13,030 13,238 13,450 13,665 13,884 14,106
EBT margin 5.6% 6.2% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6%
Corporate Income tax - - - - (1,636) (1,695) (1,716) (1,746) (1,776) (1,806) (1,972)
Net Income - 4,781 8,425 12,227 10,872 11,051 11,287 11,521 11,763 12,012 12,134
NI margin 5.1% 5.9% 6.4% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6%
Source: CapIQ, KPMG Analysis
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Sales projection
Sales volume
Production of footwear was projected to start in Year 2 at the level of 4,223,000 units further increasing to 8,446,000 units in Year 4. The 100% of sales volume is expected to be
sold on export.
Sales price
Average price for the export was estimated to be USD22 per unit based on averages of the import countries, provided by International trade Center (ICT).
60%
4,000,000 10
3,000,000 40% 5
2,000,000
20% -
1,000,000
0 0%
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year
10
Domestic sales Export sales Capacity utilization
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NPV analysis
Discounted cash flow results
The NPV of the project is
Terminal
positive, amounting to 8.1 USD'000 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 period
million Total revenue - 93,203 141,622 192,228 195,880 198,818 201,999 205,231 208,515 211,851 215,241
% of growth - 51.95% 35.73% 1.90% 1.50% 1.60% 1.60% 1.60% 1.60% 1.60%
EBITDA - 6,990 10,622 14,417 14,691 14,911 15,150 15,392 15,639 15,889 16,143
EBITDA margin 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50%
EBT - 5,226 8,835 12,598 12,837 13,030 13,238 13,450 13,665 13,884 14,106
Income tax (adjusted) - - - - (1,636) (1,695) (1,716) (1,746) (1,776) (1,806) (1,972)
NOPAT - 5,226 8,835 12,598 11,202 11,335 11,522 11,705 11,890 12,078 12,134
Cash flow adjustments
Depreciation - 1,764 1,787 1,819 1,854 1,881 1,911 1,942 1,973 2,005 2,037
CAPEX (33,743) - - (1,819) (1,854) (1,881) (1,911) (1,942) (1,973) (2,005) (2,037)
Change in working capital - (26,423) (13,727) (14,347) (1,035) (833) (902) (916) (931) (946) (961)
FCFF (33,743) (19,433) -3,105 -1,749 10,166 10,502 10,621 10,788 10,959 11,132 11,174
WACC 12.84%
Terminal growth
1.60%
rate
Terminal value 16,891
Discount period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10
Discount factor 0.941 0.834 0.739 0.655 0.581 0.515 0.456 0.404 0.358 0.318 0.318
Discounted FCFF (31,766) (16,213) (2,296) (1,146) 5,904 5,405 4,845 4,361 3,926 3,535 31,579
Sum of
discounted cash (23,444)
flows
Terminal value 31,579
NPV 8,135
Source: CapIQ, KPMG Analysis
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Key profitability factors of the project
Key profitability factors of the project
As a result of high level
Terminal
calculations, the project is USD'000 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 period
feasible Revenue - 93,203 141,622 192,228 195,880 198,818 201,999 205,231 208,515 211,851 215,241
EBITDA - 6,990 10,622 14,417 14,691 14,911 15,150 15,392 15,639 15,889 16,143
Net Income - 4,781 8,425 12,227 10,872 11,051 11,287 11,521 11,763 12,012 12,134
EBITDA margin - 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
Net income margin - 5.1% 5.9% 6.4% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6%
NPV of the Project 8,135
IRR of project 15.2%
Project payback
period 9
Source: CapIQ, KPMG Analysis
— Our assumptions and analysis has been performed based on the general economic and sector indicators. The detailed calculations
for Georgia, including construction costs, labor costs, specific legal and environmental costs etc have not been considered. However,
the country specific taxation has been considered, as well as the CPI and the pricing data.
— In addition, our assumptions and analysis do not incorporate support mechanisms, such as free of charge transfer of immovable
property for companies investing in Georgia, that will result in decreased initial investment, increased NPV and shortened payback
period.
— Per the general analysis, the results show that the project is feasible for the calculated optimal capacity and the relevant investment,
as well as given costs assumptions. The NPV of the project is positive amounting to USD8.1 million, the IRR is high amounting to
15.2%. The payback period is estimated to be 9 years.
— Considering average debt to equity ratio per industry, current market interest rates for debt and no grace period, equity IRR for
investment in leather footwear is similar to project IRR. However equity IRR is sensitive to the terms and size of debt. As an example,
increasing portion of debt to 40% and assuming 2 years of grace period, equity IRR increases to 16%.
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 150
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Investment proposal for
manufacturing sports
footwear and footwear
with uppers of textile
Georgia’s competitive advantage in manufacturing sports footwear and
footwear with uppers of textile (1/3)
Strategic location – Georgia’s strategic location is an asset to
Given Georgia’s location, any investor. As a bridge between Europe and Asia, Georgia
infrastructure and its offers direct access to European, Gulf Cooperation Countries
favorable economic and and CIS markets. Additionally, Georgia is the part of trans-
Caspian corridor and is able to provide railway transportation
political position in the to the Republic of China by the shortest route. Its three major
region, the country is a oil and gas pipelines, Black Sea ports, well-developed railway
favorable location for systems, together with its international airports are playing an
increasingly important role in linking the East and West.
investment
Labor cost in footwear manufacturing – Average salary per
month for footwear manufacturing specialist ranges between
USD125 – USD335, according to the inquiry of local companies
in the industry.
Low electricity cost – Electricity costs for industrial consumers
range between USD 0.0598 to USD0.0858 per kWh.
Raw Materials – Georgia itself may not be the producer of
some of the key raw materials in sufficient volume terms,
however advantageous location of Georgia gives ability to
import materials from abroad easily.
Training Centers – Trainings for the footwear specialists are
available in Tbilisi and Kutaisi (total of 3 centers). The average
length of courses is 16 months. In addition, there are training
centers for textile specialists in different cities of Georgia with
average length of course of 20 months. As a result of interviews
we identified that most training centers can provide special
short-term training courses per investors request and some of
them already have such experience. The terms and cost of
training vary upon the requirements. The majority of long term
trainings provided by the training centers are financed by the
Government with the standard annual fee of GEL2,250 per
annum.
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Georgia’s competitive advantage in manufacturing sports footwear and
footwear with uppers of textile (2/3)
Access to finance - Companies investing in Georgia benefit Low tax rates and transparent tax system
Companies investing in from support with access to finance, both equity and debt: Tax rates in Georgia
Georgia benefit from
1. The state program “Produce in Georgia” aims to develop and Personal Income Tax 20%
support with access to support the entrepreneurship, as well as creation of new Corporate profit tax 15%
finance, both equity and enterprises and increasing the export potential of the country. VAT 18%
In addition, the program aims to encourage manufacturing Customs/Import tax 0%, 5% or 12%
debt
industry in Georgia, and it offers support with financial
1. Land tax: GEL 0.24 per square meter
Free of charge transfer of resources via interest expense financing for loans received non-agricultural land plot, that can be
from local banks adjusted by a territorial coefficient not
immovable property is one Property tax
exceeding 1.5, determined by the local
2. JSC Partnership Fund (PF) is a state owned investment fund,
of the support municipality
main objective of which is to promote investment in Georgia by 2. Other property tax: Up to 1%
mechanisms for the providing co-financing (equity, convertible/non-convertible
Excise tax Per type of good
companies investing in loans) in projects at their initial stage of development
Source: Georgian Tax Code
Georgia Infrastructural support – In addition to the support mentioned
above, Produce in Georgia also offers the following VAT on Export/Re-export – The export/re-export of goods is
New profit tax rule is infrastructure support: Government of Georgia provides state exempt from VAT with a right to credit input VAT (i.e. like a
owned immovable property free of charge to companies with zero-rated transaction)
effective from 1 January
investment obligations for new projects (new factory or Inward Processing Customs Regime – If the goods of foreign
2017 according to which enlargement of existing one). Investment obligation states that origin undergoes processing in Georgia and the product
Profit taxation shifts from the enterprise should invest at least 6 times more than the obtained as a result of the processing is exported, no taxes are
the moment of earning the market price of the property in Tbilisi and 4 times more than the levied on this operation
market price of the property in region, see appendix 1 for the
profits to the moment of potential state owned properties to be used for footwear Foreign-source income of individuals is fully exempted
their distribution manufacturing factory construction Double taxation treaties - Georgia has approximately 54
Double taxation treaties Free Industrial Zones – Georgia has four industrial zones, in effective Double Taxation Treaties (DTTs). The rules and
which businesses are exempted from all tax charges, except procedures for the application of tax concessions set by the
with 54 countries personal income tax. If a company imports products from FIZ to provisions of DTT is determined by the Minister of Finance of
other territory of Georgia, it has to pay VAT and 4% of revenue Georgia. According to the DTTs, the income is subject to
Special customs regime from national sales. Besides tax payments, companies exemption or lower rate withholding tax
for exporters registered in FIZ also benefit from: simplified procedures and
transactions in any currency, exemption from majority of
licenses/permits , etc
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Georgia’s competitive advantage in manufacturing sports footwear and
footwear with uppers of textile (3/3)
Georgia’s preferential trade regimes — CIS
— Georgia benefits from
zero import tax to EU for Georgia has signed deep and comprehensive free trade area According to the requirements for the Certificate of Origin for CIS in
(DCFTA) which apart from other areas considers removing case materials used in footwear manufacturing are not entirely
footwear which otherwise customs duties on imports and exports of certain goods. originated in Georgia, then such materials should have undergone
amounts up to 17% sufficient working or processing in Georgia, that means:
In addition, Georgia has signed Free Trade Agreements with
China, Turkey and CIS, resulting in beneficial customs tax rates for 1.The final product commodity sub code should be different from
— Georgia benefits from
export of goods that of the imported materials; and
zero import tax to Turkey
Standard import tax rates for footwear product that are fully 2. Total value of imported materials used in manufacturing of the
and CIS for footwear
eliminated vary by product and represent up to 17% for EU and product should not exceed 51% of the ex-works price of the
which otherwise amounts Turkey and up to 30% for CIS countries. product
up to 30% To benefit from this regime, the Rule of Origin must be fulfilled,
criteria of which vary per country.
Criteria for Certificate of Origin
— EU and Turkey
The criteria of Certificate of Origin is nearly the same for EU and
Turkey and states that in case materials used in footwear
manufacturing are not entirely originated in Georgia, then such
materials should have undergone sufficient working or processing
in Georgia meaning that the final product commodity sub code
should be different from the code of used materials.
Despite the above, there is one exemption that footwear (group 64)
should be manufactured from materials of any heading, except
from assemblies of uppers affixed to inner soles or to other sole
components of heading 6406 (parts of footwear).
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Overview of raw materials for sports footwear and footwear with
uppers of textile
Key raw materials used in manufacturing sports footwear and footwear with uppers of textile
Cotton The raw materials used in sports footwear production can be split into two main categories such as materials and energy
commodities. The materials largely include textile, rubber and plastic.
Canvas
The textile largely includes natural material such as cotton. Cotton production is dominated by India, China and USA,
Nylon nevertheless Pakistan and Brazil also have notable production volumes. The majority of farming is performed by small-
scale farmers with individual holdings, although they are sometimes supported by larger organizations. Cotton is then
Polyester turned into textile (e.g. canvas) used in the production sports footwear.
Plastic The energy commodities category mainly consists of oil for use in the production of synthetic polymers such as nylon
Rubber and polyester.
Rubber is a key constituent of footwear and is produced both by natural means, i.e. from rubber trees, and also
Oil synthetically by chemicals companies.
Plastic is widely used for manufacturing the different types of footwear. Main manufacturers of Plastic are China, USA and
Germany.
Sources: (1) Marketline, Global footwear report, March 2018, (2) KPMG Analysis
Production inputs
Purchases of raw materials account for significant portion of the production costs of the firms operating in the industry.
Main raw material inputs used in production of sports footwear and footwear with uppers of textile are: (e.g. rubber, plastic compounds, foam, and canvas, accessory
materials (e.g. precious metals and stones) and packing materials.
Dealers/merchants are the key suppliers of raw materials. Main raw material supply countries are located in Asia and Europe.
Sources: (1) Marketline, Global footwear report, March 2018, (2) KPMG Analysis
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Optimal industry capacity
In order to understand the optimal capacity of production of footwear in Georgia, we analyzed potential consumption of the Georgian production by following countries of the
region (EU, CIS, Middle East, China, Turkey), assuming that significant part of the products will be exported to these countries. We calculated the gap between import and
export in these countries, as well as the selling price for the imported sports footwear and footwear with uppers of textile, and identified the countries which can potentially
become export markets for Georgia.
Based on the analysis of the above factors, we calculated approximate share of the potential import of footwear by Georgia to these countries. However, sports footwear is in
general more expensive, thus we suggest to concentrate more on sports footwear (around 64% of total production) rather than footwear with uppers of textile. As per
conservative view point we only used around 0.5% of total EU share, however there is potential of a bigger share of the EU import market to be taken by Georgia in case of
higher investment.
Potential production volume of sports footwear and footwear with uppers of textile (HS codes 640411, 640419)
Estimated total import
Import in Import/export Total import in tons volume (thousand units, Estimated price per unit, Potential share of Potential volume
USD’000 gap in USD’000 (2016) 2016) USD import from Georgia (thousand units)
EU 13,843,594 4,615,072 663,127 1,559,409 10 0.5% 7,411
Russian Federation 492,851 455,132 30,034 70,628 9 1.1% 693
Kyrgyzstan 4,978 4,950 1,251 2,942 2 4.4% 117
Kazakhstan 23,819 (4,112) 1,570 3,692 6 - -
Belarus 22,921 18,615 1,523 3,581 10 5.0% 160
Azerbaijan 13,724 13,596 553 1,300 12 5.0% 58
Armenia 6,978 6,708 803 1,888 4 - -
Moldova 4,318 2,822 711 1,672 3 - -
Tajikistan 2,005 2,005 434 1,021 2 - -
Uzbekistan 1,520 (709) 98 230 7 - -
Saudi Arabia 253,724 251,170 17,313 40,713 10 0.6% 225
Iran 3,345 (12,518) - - - - -
China 1,045,429 (11,364,799) 34,686 81,568 12 - -
Turkey 269,917 145,502 11,321 26,622 13 - -
763,424 1,795,267 8,665
Note: Information for import and export presented in tons were transferred in number of units using 0,475 kilogram
Source: ICT, KPMG Analysis
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Optimal industry capacity and estimated investment
The analysis shows, there is a gap between the import and export in most of the selected countries, except for China, Iran, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The gap in these
countries is negative, which shows that the export exceeds import. Main suppling markets of Saudi Arabia are China, Vietnam and Indonesia. We considered that the possibility
to access these market is low, therefore didn’t consider China, Iran, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia as a potential consumers of the Georgian production. In addition,
we analyzed the selling price of imported products and considered that the benefits from entering the following markets is low: Armenia, Moldova, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Further, we assumed that since most of raw materials are expected to come from China and Turkey we think that the potential for export to these countries is low.
As for other countries/regions, the import/export gap is significant. Notwithstanding the existence of the production facilities in the most of the countries/regions, the demand
exceeds supply and there is a potential for other supplier to enter these markets. As an example, the gap between the import/export in Russia is USD 455.1 million. Considering
the distance factor, as well as ease of access of Georgia to Russia, i.e. common border, we assumed that Georgia might potentially take up some share of the imports. We
analyzed import to EU counties in total, as considering the signed DCFTA and the significant import/export gap within EU market, as well the Georgia’s location, we believe that
Georgia has a good potential to access EU market.
As Georgia’s consumption compared to the selected market is not significant, we didn’t add any additional quantity to the potential volume. We estimated that potential share of
import from Georgia in EU and selected countries of CIS and Middle East will be 0.5% to 5% of the total imports as shown on previous slide. Because the amount of
import/export of footwear is mostly measured in tons and the data wasn’t available in units, we estimated average weight of one pair of sports footwear and footwear with uppers
of textile and calculated amounts in pairs. Thus, based on the calculations of import/export data, the optimal capacity of the production in Georgia would be around 8,665,000
pairs per year.
In order to estimate the approximate investment for a manufacturing facility with the capacity of 8,665,000 pairs per year, we searched for similar projects. We have identified
the following investments:
— one planned project for textile manufacturing with investment amount of USD15 million, except land cost, for 3,000 employees. The investment amount was adjusted for
land costs to arrive at total investment amount for the calculation.
— Nike has opened USD60 million factory for 5,500 employees in Indonesia.
Based on the information on the investment amount, cost of land, number of workers and average amount of pairs produced by one worker per year, we calculated the
estimated investment at USD34.6 million. This is an approximate amount, as factors specific to Georgia and availability of technologies have not been specifically considered.
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Financial
projections
Key assumptions
• Construction period was forecast to last one year Construction project details
Based on the data gathered
Investment, USD'000 34,618
and analyzed, we have • Capacity utilization was forecast to reach 50% in the second Capacity, units'000 8,665
performed high level financial projection period and further increase by 25% YoY reaching
Number of employee 3,820
100% in the 4th projection period
calculations for the potential Investment per employee, USD 9,063
project on producing different Construction timeline 1
• The delay in the launch of the production is due to the
kinds of sports footwear and forecasted plant construction period. The delay in reaching full Annual maintenance CAPEX, USD'000 1,154
forecasted capacity of the production is due to the estimated Domestic sales, % -
footwear with uppers of
time needed for marketing the product and building brand Export sales, % 100
textile in Georgia. The more recognition, as well as considering learning curve effect. Source: KPMG Analysis
detailed description of the • Based on the data provided by Damodaran, industry average
assumptions and relevant • During the forecasted period the maximum capacity has been capital structure of the industry comprises of 10%-25% of debt
estimated as the nominal capacity determined based on the and 75%-90% of equity. The capital structure of the project was
calculations are provided
analysis of the data obtained during the research, i.e. potential assumed to be the same as industry average
further on debottlenecking of production has not been considered.
• As per the Georgian tax code, the amount of taxation for profit
tax is shifted from when profits are earned to when they are
distributed. Therefor we calculated taxes from free cash flows.
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Financial performance
We have assumed projection period of 10 years, followed by terminal period. The construction of factory is expected to be finished by the end of the first projection period, after
which the plant will be commenced.
Gross and EBITDA margins were forecast to amount to 39.7% and 8.7%, respectively throughout the forecast and terminal periods. EBT margin was projected to vary between
6.6% and 7.6%. The COGS and the SG&A expenses have been calculated based on the industry average margins published in CapitalIQ.
Revenue - 56,394 85,691 116,311 118,521 120,299 122,223 124,179 126,166 128,185 130,236
Growth 52.0% 35.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
COGS - (34,006) (51,672) (70,136) (71,468) (72,540) (73,701) (74,880) (76,078) (77,295) (78,532)
Gross profit - 22,388 34,019 46,175 47,053 47,759 48,523 49,299 50,088 50,889 51,704
Gross profit margin 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7% 39.7%
SG&A - (17,482) (26,564) (36,056) (36,741) (37,293) (37,889) (38,496) (39,111) (39,737) (40,373)
EBITDA - 4,906 7,455 10,119 10,311 10,466 10,633 10,804 10,976 11,152 11,330
EBITDA margin 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7%
Financial Depreciation (1,206) (1,222) (1,244) (1,268) (1,287) (1,307) (1,328) (1,350) (1,371) (1,393)
EBT - 3,700 6,233 8,875 9,044 9,179 9,326 9,475 9,627 9,781 9,937
EBT margin 6.6% 7.3% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6%
Corporate Income tax - - (101) (275) (1,152) (1,186) (1,203) (1,225) (1,247) (1,269) (1,429)
Net Income - 3,243 5,711 8,220 7,553 7,702 7,881 8,062 8,250 8,445 8,508
NI margin 5.8% 6.7% 7.1% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 6.5%
Source: CapIQ, KPMG Analysis
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Sales projection
Sales volume
Production of footwear was projected to start in Year 2 at the level of 4,333,000 units further increasing to 8,665,000 unit in Year 4. The 100% of sales volume is expected to be
sold on export.
Sales price
Average price for the export was estimated to be USD 13 per unit based on averages of the import countries, provided by International trade Center (ITC).
10,000,000 120% 16
9,000,000 14
8,000,000 100% 12
7,000,000 10
80%
Unit
8
6,000,000
6
5,000,000 60%
4
4,000,000 2
3,000,000 40%
0
2,000,000 20%
1,000,000
- 0%
Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Price per country Average price
Domestic sales Export sales Capacity utilization
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NPV analysis
Discounted cash flow results
The NPV of the project is
Terminal
positive, amounting to USD'000 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 period
USD8.1 million Total revenue - 56,394 85,691 116,311 118,521 120,299 122,223 124,179 126,166 128,185 130,236
% of growth - 51.95% 35.73% 1.90% 1.50% 1.60% 1.60% 1.60% 1.60% 1.60%
EBITDA - 4,906 7,455 10,119 10,311 10,466 10,633 10,804 10,976 11,152 11,330
EBITDA margin 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70% 8.70%
EBT - 3,700 6,233 8,875 9,044 9,179 9,326 9,475 9,627 9,781 9,937
Income tax (adjusted) - - (101) (275) (1,152) (1,186) (1,203) (1,225) (1,247) (1,269) (1,429)
NOPAT - 3,700 6,132 8,600 7,891 7,994 8,123 8,251 8,380 8,512 8,508
Cash flow adjustments
Depreciation - 1,206 1,222 1,244 1,268 1,287 1,307 1,328 1,350 1,371 1,393
CAPEX (34,618) - - (1,244) (1,268) (1,287) (1,307) (1,328) (1,350) (1,371) (1,393)
Change in working capital - (11,279) (5,859) (6,124) (442) (356) (385) (391) (397) (404) (410)
FCFF (34,618) (6,373) 1,494 2,476 7,449 7,638 7,738 7,859 7,983 8,109 8,098
WACC 12.84%
Terminal growth
1.60%
rate
Terminal value 16,891
Discount period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10
Discount factor 0.941 0.834 0.739 0.655 0.581 0.515 0.456 0.404 0.358 0.318 0.318
Discounted FCFF (32,590) (5,317) 1,105 1,623 4,326 3,931 3,530 3,177 2,860 2,575 22,887
Sum of
discounted cash (14,780)
flows
Terminal value 22,887
NPV 8,107
Source: CapIQ, KPMG Analysis
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Key profitability factors of the project
Key profitability factors of the project
As a result of high level
Terminal
calculations, the project is USD'000 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 period
feasible Revenues - 56,394 85,691 116,311 118,521 120,299 122,223 124,179 126,166 128,185 130,236
EBITDA - 4,906 7,455 10,119 10,311 10,466 10,633 10,804 10,976 11,152 11,330
Net Income - 3,243 5,711 8,220 7,553 7,702 7,881 8,062 8,250 8,445 8,508
EBITDA margin - 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7%
Net income margin - 5.8% 6.7% 7.1% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 6.5%
NPV of the Project 8,107
IRR of project 15.9%
Project payback
period 8.8
Source: CapIQ, KPMG Analysis
— Our assumptions and analysis has been performed based on the general economic and sector indicators. The detailed calculations
for Georgia, including construction costs, labor costs, specific legal and environmental costs etc have not been considered. However,
the country specific taxation has been considered, as well as the CPI and the pricing data.
— In addition, our assumptions and analysis do not incorporate support mechanisms, such as free of charge transfer of immovable
property for companies investing in Georgia, that will result in decreased initial investment, increased NPV and shortened payback
period.
— Per the general analysis, the results show that the project is feasible for the calculated optimal capacity and the relevant investment,
as well as given costs assumptions. The NPV of the project is positive amounting to USD8.1 million, the IRR is high amounting to
15.9%. The payback period is estimated to be 8.8 years.
— Considering average debt to equity ratio per industry, current market interest rates for debt and no grace period, equity IRR for
investment in manufacturing sports footwear and footwear with uppers of textile is similar to project IRR. However equity IRR is very
sensitive to the terms and size of debt. As an example, increasing portion of debt to 40% and assuming 2 years of grace period,
equity IRR increases to 17.8%.
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 163
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Investment proposal
for travelling bags
manufacturing
Georgia’s competitive advantage in travelling bags manufacturing (1/2)
Strategic location – Georgia’s strategic location is an asset to Georgia’s preferential trade regimes
Given Georgia’s location, any investor. As a bridge between Europe and Asia, Georgia
infrastructure and its Georgia has signed deep and comprehensive free trade area
offers direct access to European, Gulf Cooperation Countries
(DCFTA) which apart from other areas considers removing
favorable economic and and CIS markets. Additionally, Georgia is the part of trans-
customs duties on imports and exports of certain goods.
Caspian corridor and is able to provide railway transportation
political position in the to the Republic of China by the shortest route. Its three major In addition, Georgia has signed Free Trade Agreements with
region, the country is a oil and gas pipelines, Black Sea ports, well-developed railway China, Turkey and CIS, resulting in beneficial customs tax rates for
favorable location for systems, together with its international airports are playing an export of goods
increasingly important role in linking the East and West
investment Standard import tax rates for bags product that are fully eliminated
Labor cost in bags manufacturing – Average gross salary per vary by product and represent up to 9.7% for EU and Turkey and
— Georgia benefits from month for bags manufacturing specialist ranges between up to 20% for CIS countries.
zero import tax to EU for USD265 – USD625, according to the inquire of local companies
in the industry To benefit from this regime, the Rule of Origin must be fulfilled,
bags which otherwise criteria of which vary per country.
Low electricity cost – Electricity costs for industrial consumers
amount up to 9.7% — Criteria for Certificate of Origin for EU and Turkey
range between USD 0.0598 to USD0.0858 per kWh
— Georgia benefits from Raw Materials – Georgia itself may not be the producer of The criteria of Certificate of Origin is nearly the same for EU and
some of the key raw materials in sufficient volume terms, Turkey and states that in case materials used in bags
zero import tax to Turkey
however advantageous location of Georgia gives ability to manufacturing are not entirely originated in Georgia, then such
and CIS for bags which import materials from abroad easily. materials should have undergone sufficient working or processing
otherwise amount up to in Georgia meaning that the final product commodity sub code
Training Centers – Trainings for textile specialist are available should be different from the code of used materials.
20% in different cities of Georgia: Tbilisi, Kutaisi, Batumi, Mestia,
Akhaltsikhe, Mtskheta, Telavi, Gori, Ozurgeti, Tsalenjixa, Poti. — Criteria for Certificate of Origin for CIS
The average length of courses is 20 month. As a result of According the requirements for the Certificate of Origin for CIS in
interviews we identified that most training centers can provide case materials used in bags manufacturing are not entirely
special short-term training courses per investors request and originated in Georgia, then such materials should have undergone
some of them already have such experience. The terms and sufficient working or processing in Georgia, that means
cost of training vary upon the requirements. The majority of
long term trainings provided by the training centers are financed 1.The final product commodity sub code should be different from
by the Government with the standard annual fee of GEL2,250 that of the imported materials; and
per annum 2. Total value of imported materials used in manufacturing of the
product should not exceed 51% of the ex-works price of the
product
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Georgia’s competitive advantage in travelling bags manufacturing (2/2)
Access to finance - Companies investing in Georgia benefit Low tax rates and transparent tax system
Companies investing in from support with access to finance, both equity and debt: Tax rates in Georgia
Georgia benefit from
1. The state program “Produce in Georgia” aims to develop and Personal Income Tax 20%
support with access to support the entrepreneurship, as well as creation of new Corporate profit tax 15%
finance, both equity and enterprises and increasing the export potential of the country. VAT 18%
In addition, the program aims to encourage manufacturing Customs/Import tax 0%, 5% or 12%
debt
industry in Georgia, and it offers support with financial
1. Land tax: GEL 0.24 per square meter
Free of charge transfer of resources via interest expense financing for loans received non-agricultural land plot, that can be
from local banks adjusted by a territorial coefficient not
immovable property is one Property tax
exceeding 1.5, determined by the local
2. JSC Partnership Fund (PF) is a state owned investment fund,
of the support municipality
main objective of which is to promote investment in Georgia by 2. Other property tax: Up to 1%
mechanisms for the providing co-financing (equity, convertible/non-convertible
Excise tax Per type of good
companies investing in loans) in projects at their initial stage of development
Source: Georgian Tax Code
Georgia Infrastructural support – In addition to the support mentioned VAT on Export/Re-export – The export/re-export of goods is
above, Produce in Georgia also offers the following exempt from VAT with a right to credit input VAT (i.e. like a
New profit tax rule is infrastructure support: Government of Georgia provides state zero-rated transaction)
effective from 1 January owned immovable property free of charge to companies with
investment obligations for new projects (new factory or Inward Processing Customs Regime – If the goods of foreign
2017 according to which enlargement of existing one). Investment obligation states that origin undergoes processing in Georgia and the product
Profit taxation shifts from the enterprise should invest at least 6 times more than the obtained as a result of the processing is exported, no taxes are
the moment of earning the market price of the property in Tbilisi and 4 times more than the levied on this operation
market price of the property in region, see appendix 1 for the
profits to the moment of Foreign-source income of individuals is fully exempted
potential state owned properties to be used for bags
their distribution manufacturing factory construction Double taxation treaties - Georgia has approximately 54
effective Double Taxation Treaties (DTTs). The rules and
Double taxation treaties Free Industrial Zones – Georgia has four industrial zones, in
procedures for the application of tax concessions set by the
which businesses are exempted from all tax charges, except
with 54 countries provisions of DTT is determined by the Minister of Finance of
personal income tax. If a company imports products from FIZ to
Georgia. According to the DTTs, the income is subject to
other territory of Georgia, it has to pay VAT and 4% of revenue
Special customs regime from national sales. Besides tax payments, companies
exemption or lower rate withholding tax
for exporters registered in FIZ also benefit from: simplified procedures and
transactions in any currency, exemption from majority of
licenses/permits , etc
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Overview of raw materials for travelling bags manufacturing
Key raw materials used in manufacturing travelling bags
Cotton The raw materials used in bags production can be split into two main categories such as, materials and energy
commodities. The materials largely include Textile and Plastic.
Canvas
The textile largely includes natural material such as cotton. Cotton production is dominated by India, China and USA,
Nylon nevertheless Pakistan and Brazil also have notable production volumes. The majority of farming is performed by small-
scale farmers with individual holdings, although they are sometimes supported by larger organizations. Cotton is then
Polyester turned into textile (e.g. canvas) used in the production of bags and accessories.
Plastic The energy commodities category mainly consists of oil for use in the production of synthetic polymers such as nylon
Oil and polyester.
Plastic is widely used for manufacturing the different types of bags (carrier, traveling cases, etc.). Main manufacturers of
Plastic are China, USA and Germany.
Production inputs
Purchases of raw materials account for significant portion of the production costs of the firms operating in the industry.
Main raw material inputs used in production of bags are: plastic, nylon and polyester, silk, seashell, rattan, bamboo, water hyacinth, seagrass.
Dealers/merchants are the key suppliers of materials. Main raw material supply countries are located in Asia and Europe.
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Optimal industry capacity
In order to understand the optimal capacity of production of travelling bags in Georgia, we analyzed potential consumption of the Georgian production by following countries of
the region (EU, CIS, Middle East, China, Turkey), assuming that significant part of the products will be exported to these countries. We calculated the gap between import and
export in these countries, as well as the selling price for the imported travelling bags, and identified the countries which can potentially become export markets for Georgia.
Based on the analysis of the above factors, we calculated approximate share of the potential import of travelling bags by Georgia to these countries. The proportion used for
both type of bags is around 50%-50%. As per conservative view point we only used around 1% of total EU share, however there is potential of a bigger share of the EU import
market to be taken by Georgia in case of higher investment.
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Optimal industry capacity and estimated investment
The analysis shows, there is a gap between the import and export in all of the selected countries, except for China. The gap in China is negative, which shows that the export
exceeds import. Considering that China can not only support its own demand but is one of the main exporters of travelling bags, we considered that the possibility to access this
market is low, therefore didn’t consider China as a potential consumer of the Georgian production. In addition, we analyzed the selling price of imported products and considered
that the benefits from entering Kyrgyzstan is low. Further, we assumed that since most of raw materials are expected to come from China and Turkey we think that the potential
for export to these countries is low.
As for other countries/regions, the import/export gap is significant. Notwithstanding the existence of the production facilities in the most of the countries/regions, the demand
exceeds supply and there is a potential for other supplier to enter these markets. As an example, the gap between the import/export in Russian is USD200.6 million. Considering
the distance factor, as well as ease of access of Georgia to Russia, i.e. common border, we assumed that Georgia might potentially take up some share of the imports. We
analyzed import to EU counties in total, as considering the signed DCFTA and the significant import/export gap within EU market, as well Georgia’s location, we believe that
Georgia has a good potential to access EU market.
As Georgia’s consumption compared to the selected market is not significant, we didn’t add any additional quantity to the potential volume. We estimated that potential share of
import from Georgia in EU and selected countries of CIS and Middle East will be 1% to 5% of the total imports. Because the amount of import/export of travelling bags is mostly
measured in tons and the data wasn’t available in units, we estimated average weight of one travelling bag and calculated amounts in units. Thus, based on the calculations of
import/export data, the optimal capacity of the production in Georgia would be around 5,987,000 units per year.
In order to estimate the approximate investment for a manufacturing facility with the capacity of 5,987,000 units per year, we searched for similar projects. We have identified the
following investments:
- one planned project for textile manufacturing with investment amount of USD15 million, except land cost for 3,000 employees. The investment amount was adjusted for land
costs to arrive at total investment amount for the calculation.
- Nike has opened USD60 million factory for 5,500 employees in Indonesia
Based on the information on the investment amount, cost of land, number of workers and units produced by one worker per year, we calculated the estimated investment at
USD23.9 million. This is an approximate amount, as factors specific to Georgia and availability of technologies have not been specifically considered.
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Financial
projections
Key assumptions
• Construction period was forecast to last one year Construction project details
Based on the data gathered
Investment, USD'000 23,918
and analyzed, we have • Capacity utilization was forecast to reach 50% in the second Capacity, units'000 5,987
performed high level financial projection period and further increase by 25% YoY reaching Number of employee 2,639
100% in the 4th projection period
calculations for the potential Investment per employee, USD 9,063
project on producing different Construction timeline 1
• The delay in the launch of the production is due to the
kinds of travelling bags in forecasted plant construction period. The delay in reaching full Annual maintenance CAPEX, USD'000 1,196
forecasted capacity of the production is due to the estimated Domestic sales, % -
Georgia. The more detailed
time needed for marketing the product and building brand Export sales, % 100
description of the recognition, as well as considering learning curve effect. Source: KPMG Analysis
assumptions and relevant • Based on the data provided by Damodaran, industry average
calculations are provided • During the forecasted period the maximum capacity has been capital structure of the industry comprises of 10%-25% of debt
estimated as the nominal capacity determined based on the and 75%-90% of equity. The capital structure of the project was
further on assumed to be the same as industry average
analysis of the data obtained during the research, i.e. potential
debottlenecking of production has not been considered.
• As per the Georgian tax code, the amount of taxation for profit
tax is shifted from when profits are earned to when they are
distributed. Therefor we calculated taxes from free cash flow
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Financial performance
We have assumed projection period of 10 years, followed by terminal period. The construction of factory is expected to be finished by the end of the first projection period, after
which the plant will be commenced
Gross and EBITDA margins were forecast to amount to 49% and 8%, respectively throughout the forecast and terminal periods. EBT margin was projected to vary between
6.1% and 7.0%. The COGS and the SG&A expenses have been calculated based on the industry average margins published in CapitalIQ.
Revenue - 51,954 78,944 107,154 109,190 110,827 112,601 114,402 116,233 118,092 119,982
Growth 52.0% 35.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
COGS - (26,497) (40,262) (54,648) (55,687) (56,522) (57,426) (58,345) (59,279) (60,227) (61,191)
Gross profit - 25,457 38,683 52,505 53,503 54,305 55,174 56,057 56,954 57,865 58,791
Gross profit margin 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0%
SG&A - (21,301) (32,367) (43,933) (44,768) (45,439) (46,166) (46,905) (47,655) (48,418) (49,193)
EBITDA - 4,156 6,316 8,572 8,735 8,866 9,008 9,152 9,299 9,447 9,599
EBITDA margin 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Financial Depreciation (1,250) (1,267) (1,289) (1,314) (1,334) (1,355) (1,377) (1,399) (1,421) (1,444)
EBT - 2,906 5,049 7,283 7,421 7,533 7,653 7,776 7,900 8,026 8,155
EBT margin 5.6% 6.4% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%
Corporate Income tax - - (18) (125) (955) (984) (998) (1,015) (1,033) (1,051) (1,165)
Net Income - 2,590 4,741 6,895 6,233 6,347 6,488 6,630 6,777 6,928 6,990
NI margin 5.0% 6.0% 6.4% 5.7% 5.7% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 5.8%
Source: CapIQ, KPMG Analysis
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Sales projection
Sales volume
Production of travelling bags was projected to start in Year 2 at the level of 2,993,000 units further increasing to 5,987,000 units in Year 4. The 100% of sales volume is
expected to be sold on export.
Sales price
Average price for the export was estimated to be USD 17 per unit based on averages of the import countries, provided by International trade Center (ITC).
4,000,000 20
60%
3,000,000 10
40% -
2,000,000
1,000,000 20%
- 0%
Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Domestic sales Export sales Capacity utilization Price per countery Average price
Source: ITC, KPMG Analysis
Source: ITC, KPMG Analysis
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
NPV analysis
Discounted cash flow results
The NPV of the project is
Terminal
positive, amounting to 8.7 USD'000 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 period
million Total revenue - 51,954 78,944 107,154 109,190 110,827 112,601 114,402 116,233 118,092 119,982
% of growth - 51.95% 35.73% 1.90% 1.50% 1.60% 1.60% 1.60% 1.60% 1.60%
EBITDA - 4,156 6,316 8,572 8,735 8,866 9,008 9,152 9,299 9,447 9,599
EBITDA margin 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00%
EBT - 2,906 5,049 7,283 7,421 7,533 7,653 7,776 7,900 8,026 8,155
Income tax (adjusted) - - (18) (125) (955) (984) (998) (1,015) (1,033) (1,051) (1,165)
NOPAT - 2,906 5,031 7,157 6,466 6,549 6,655 6,760 6,867 6,975 6,990
Cash flow adjustments
Depreciation - 1,250 1,267 1,289 1,314 1,334 1,355 1,377 1,399 1,421 1,444
CAPEX (23,918) - - (1,289) (1,314) (1,334) (1,355) (1,377) (1,399) (1,421) (1,444)
Change in working capital - (10,703) (5,560) (5,811) (419) (337) (365) (371) (377) (383) (389)
FCFF (23,918) (6,546) 738 1,346 6,047 6,211 6,290 6,389 6,490 6,592 6,601
WACC 12.84%
Terminal growth
1.60%
rate
Terminal value 16,891
Discount period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10
Discount factor 0.941 0.834 0.739 0.655 0.581 0.515 0.456 0.404 0.358 0.318 0.318
Discounted
(22,517) (5,462) 545 882 3,512 3,197 2,869 2,583 2,325 2,093 18,655
FCFF
Sum of
discounted cash (9,972)
flows
Terminal value 18,655
NPV 8,683
Source: CapIQ, KPMG Analysis
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Key profitability factors of the project
Key profitability factors of the project
As a result of high level
Terminal
calculations, the project is USD'000 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 period
feasible Revenue - 51,954 78,944 107,154 109,190 110,827 112,601 114,402 116,233 118,092 119,982
EBITDA - 4,156 6,316 8,572 8,735 8,866 9,008 9,152 9,299 9,447 9,599
Net Income - 2,590 4,741 6,895 6,233 6,347 6,488 6,630 6,777 6,928 6,990
EBITDA margin - 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Net income margin - 5.0% 6.0% 6.4% 5.7% 5.7% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 5.8%
NPV of the Project 8,683
IRR of project 17.1%
Project payback
period 8.5
Source: CapIQ, KPMG Analysis
— Our assumptions and analysis has been performed based on the general economic and sector indicators. The detailed calculations
for Georgia, including construction costs, labor costs, specific legal and environmental costs etc have not been considered. However,
the country specific taxation has been considered, as well as the CPI and the pricing data.
— In addition, our assumptions and analysis do not incorporate support mechanisms, such as free of charge transfer of immovable
property for companies investing in Georgia, that will result in decreased initial investment, increased NPV and shortened payback
period.
— Per the general analysis, the results show that the project is feasible for the calculated optimal capacity and the relevant investment,
as well as given costs assumptions. The NPV of the project is positive amounting to USD8.7 million, the project IRR is high
amounting to 17%. The payback period is estimated to be 8.5 years.
— Considering average debt to equity ratio per industry, current market interest rates for debt and no grace period, equity IRR for
investment in Bags is similar to project IRR. However equity IRR is very sensitive to the terms and size of debt. As an example,
increasing portion of debt to 40% and assuming 2 years of grace period, equity IRR increases to 19%.
© 2018 KPMG Georgia LLC, a company incorporated under the Laws of Georgia; a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative 175
(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendices
Appendix 1
Location of potential land plots and building available for free of charge
transfer to an investor
We have been provided with list of pre selected land plots and buildings suitable for a manufacturing factory construction in Georgia, that are available for free of charge transfer
to interested investors. We have been informed by Enterprise Georgia LEPL that the list is not exhaustive and more options can be provided to interested investors as per their
request. See next slide for the details of potential land plots and buildings available for free of charge transfer to an investor
2 locations of
around 28,000 sq.m.
3 locations of
around 24,000 sq.m.
2 locations of
around 30,000 sq.m.
Port Kutaisi
Source: KPMG Analysis
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
Appendix 1
Details of potential land plots and building available for free of charge
transfer to an investor
Potential state owned properties for free of charge transfer to an investor for construction of manufacturing factory
Region Imereti Guria Kvemo Kartli
Major cities/towns in region Kutaisi, Zestaponi, Samtredia Lanchkhuti, Ozurgeti Rustavi, Gardabani
Land and ruins of Land and ruins of Land and
Property type Land and buildings Land and buildings Land Land and buildings
buildings building buildings
Sulkhan-Saba Av. Griboedovi St. 55A; Kostava St. 15; Muskhishvili St. 15A; Gamarjveba;
Address Lanchkhuti Gardabani
10; Kutaisi Samtredia Samtredia Lanchkhuti Gardabani
27.06.52.541;
27.06.57.190;
Property code 03.05.24.891 34.08.47.065 34.08.58.214 27.06.52.429; 81.07.16.738 81.15.03.218
27.06.57.020
27.06.52.459
Size of Land (square meter) 15,632 5,254 6,755 14,949 8,987 5,851 23,672
Population (Thousand persons, 2017) 530 113 427
Labor force (Thousand persons, 2016) 377* 70** 210
Unemployed (Thousand persons, 2016) 41* 3*** 18
Population outside labor force (Thousand
155* n/a 91
persons, 2016)
Average monthly salary in business sector (USD,
286 294 352
2017)
Average monthly salary in industry (USD, 2016) 289 326 434
Production value in industry (USD'000, 2016) 351 73 723
Value added in industry (USD'000, 2016) 113 23 233
Center of Georgia; Close to Poti and Batumi ports; Close Close to Azerbaijan and Armenian border;
Regional advantages Close to Kutaisi airport; Main road crossing all major towns to Batumi airport; Close to Turkish Close to the capital - Tbilisi and Tbilisi
of region; Easy access to railway, Free Industrial Zones border airport
Note: *Information about labor force and unemployment in the Imereti region is presented together with Racha-Lechkhumi, Kvemo Svaneti data;
**No public information is available for labor force specifically for Guria. The region is grouped with Samtskhe-javakheti and Mtskheta-Mtianeti and total labor force for the three regions represent 229 thousand. However, as per not formal information the
labor force in Guria represents 70,000 individuals;
***As no data was available for labor force specifically for Guria, we estimated number of unemployed people based on average unemployment rate of 4.1% for the region
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(“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.
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