29/09/2021, 20:14 Defending Digital Globalization | Foreign Affairs

Defending Digital Globalization

Let the Data Flow
BY
SUSAN LUND AND JAMES MANYIKA
April 20, 2017
SUSAN LUND is an economist and a partner at McKinsey & Company and the
McKinsey Global Institute and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Follow
her on Twitter at @SusanLund_DC. JAMES MANYIKA is a senior partner at McKinsey
and a director of the McKinsey Global Institute. He is on the board of the Council on
Foreign Relations. 

Over the last 25 years, the Internet has become a conduit for trillions of
dollars in commerce, transforming industries, national economies, and the
nature of globalization itself. Today, as global trade in goods and services
has plateaued and global financial flows have declined dramatically, cross-
border data flows are exploding in volume. Data flows in and out of the
United States alone are estimated at 80 terabytes per minute—eight times
the size of the entire print content of the Library of Congress. Since 2005,
they have increased by a factor of 80, from just 5 terabits per second to an
estimated 400 per second.

International data flows take many forms. Individuals generate them

through e-mails, Skype calls, e-commerce transactions, social media posts,
and Internet searches, as well as through the consumption of digital goods

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from around the world. By 2020, consumers are expected to spend $1

trillion on cross-border e-commerce. But these flows are more than just
consumer transactions and social media posts. They are an integral part of
the way companies now operate. According to research we conducted at the
McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), cross-border data flows already make a
larger contribution to global GDP than the goods trade. We term this rapid
increase in both the size and the value of cross-border data flows “digital
globalization.”

Like traditional globalization, however, digital globalization is threatened

by a number of barriers and protectionist policies, such as data localization
requirements, online censorship, market restrictions on digital content
providers, and conflicting and overlapping rules on data privacy and
protection. Although these policies are often adopted to address legitimate
underlying concerns, they threaten to disrupt the flow of data around the
world, imposing significant costs to companies and harm to consumers.

Just as nations have negotiated agreements establishing the terms of global

trade in goods and services, they now need to confront digital protectionism
by setting out detailed frameworks to govern cross-border electronic
commerce and data flows. The world needs international norms and
protocols to ensure the free flow of data and forums for settling disputes
when they arise. Getting these right will ensure that the world can realize
the full potential of digital globalization to promote economic growth and
productivity.

GOING WITH THE FLOW

Cross-border data flows have been experiencing explosive growth in recent

years. As noted above, MGI’s research found that they grew 80 times larger
in volume between 2005 and 2016.

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Global cross-border bandwith use (terabits per second)

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0
’05 ’07 ’09 ’11 ’13 ’15 ’17 ’19
 Data: Telegeography and McKinsey Global Institute Share

In addition to transmitting a valuable stream of communication, digital

flows are transforming more traditional types of exchange. International e-
commerce accounted for approximately 10 percent of the global goods trade
by dollar volume in 2015. In China, close to 20 percent of imports and
exports run through digital platforms—roughly double the share in Europe.
The transformation is even more pronounced when the underlying product
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is digital. In 2014, the volume of cross-border, computer-to-computer

Skype calls was equal that of 46 percent of international phone calls, as
measured in minutes. And in 2015, international readers made up almost
80 percent of the Financial Times’ Web traffic, 60 percent of the BBC’s, and
50 percent of BuzzFeed’s.

The economic impact of such data flows is undeniable, opening up trade to

new places and market players. Online marketplaces such as Alibaba and
Amazon host millions of small merchants from all over the world. Some 50
million small companies are on Facebook, up from 25 million in 2013. And
in 18 countries analyzed by eBay, anywhere from 88 to 100 percent of the
sellers who operate on the company’s platform are exporters.

Digital business, moreover, is changing the structure of international trade.

A great deal of trade has always involved countries exchanging goods with
their regional neighbors. But the Internet reduces the barriers of distance.
The MGI study confirms the conclusions of other researchers, who have
found that digital commerce cuts home bias, or the likelihood that
countries will confine their trade to their closest neighbors, roughly in half. 

All of this activity has a real payoff. MGI estimates that between 2004 and
2014, global flows of data, finance, goods, people, and services raised world
GDP by at least 10 percent compared to a hypothetical world without
them, adding $7.8 trillion to the world economy in 2014 alone. Remarkably,
cross-border data flows—which were negligible just 15 years ago—
accounted for $2.8 trillion of this value, surpassing the impact of the global
goods trade, which has evolved over centuries.

DIGITAL PROTECTIONISM

Despite the enormous value of digital globalization, dozens of countries

have erected barriers to constrain it. One clear example is the set of Internet
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restrictions known as the Great Firewall of China; another is Russia’s

requirement that data on its citizens be stored on servers located within the
country. But there are more subtle forms of digital protectionism as well,
including blocking websites with controversial content, banning instant-
messaging services, and conducting national digital surveillance. Roughly a
dozen countries, for instance, have banned the WhatsApp messaging
service.

Although traditional trade restrictions are mainly erected to protect local

industries from foreign competition, restrictions on data flows are often
adopted for a more nuanced set of reasons. For instance, many are enacted
to address legitimate concerns about data privacy or cybersecurity, even as
others are indeed meant to shield local platforms from competition. The
overlapping motivations behind these restrictions increase the complexity
of developing international norms on data flows. But these concerns should
be addressed through global cooperation, rather than restriction, so that the
world economy does not miss out on the tremendous potential benefits of
digital flows.

There are three major categories of policies that restrict data flows: data
localization requirements, general barriers to the free cross-border flow of
data, and national standards of data privacy.

The first category, that of data localization, involves policies whereby

countries require companies to store data on servers located within their
borders. Such policies may be broad rules covering most or all types of data,
or they may be focused on specific types of data. Countries with broad
localization requirements include China, Malaysia, Nigeria, Russia, and
Vietnam, and India is also considering a very wide-ranging measure. Other
countries have adopted narrower measures, such as requiring payments to

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be processed locally, or requiring personal information, such as medical or

tax records, to be stored within the country.

Data localization requirements increase the cost of doing business by

forcing Internet companies and online platforms to build redundant server
locations. The costs of doing so are often passed on to local consumers. One
study estimates that for companies in countries with data localization laws,
the laws increase the price of computing by 30 to 60 percent. In smaller
markets, the cost of building local data servers may create so much
inefficiency that Internet service provides choose to exit the market
altogether.

Advocates for data localization typically justify it on several grounds. One is

that it protects data from surveillance by foreign governments. But many
cybersecurity experts reject this argument, arguing that the location of a
server has no impact on its vulnerability to foreign hackers or government
surveillance. A second justification is that localization enables the
government to maintain access to the data stored on its territory. China, for
instance, requires companies to share the security keys for some types of
data with government officials. Finally, policymakers in many countries
believe that data localization requirements will create local technology jobs.
But today’s data server farms are largely self-regulating and autonomous,
requiring very few employees. Facebook’s massive data farm in Sweden, for
instance, employs only 150 people, or one technician for every 25,000
servers.

The second category of protectionism is that of more general restrictions on

data flows. It is important here to differentiate between restrictions on legal
and illegal activity. Supporting free data flows, of course, should not extend
to illegal activities—just as free trade principles allow for bans on trade in
specific goods, such as ivory or drugs, the free movement of data can
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similarly exclude illegal digital material, such as child pornography, pirated

digital content, or malware. Indeed, numerous countries, including
Denmark, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and the United Kingdom, have blocked
websites that sell pirated digital content. Yet many countries, such as China,
censor the Internet or restrict access to legitimate (that is, noncriminal)
foreign websites.

The third category is the most diffuse, covering the variations in national
data privacy requirements. Different countries have different views on the
appropriate amount of privacy for consumer data. The EU, for instance,
places sharp restrictions on the ability of companies to commercialize or sell
consumer data, whereas the United States is more lenient. For global
companies, however, complying with myriad national rules can be
cumbersome. Harmonizing privacy requirements, or creating international
regulatory or legal frameworks to deal with country by country variation,
would be hugely beneficial. The U.S.-EU and U.S.-Swiss Privacy Shield
Framework, for example, is an agreement that creates standards for how
U.S. companies should handle personal data on EU citizens, in order to
facilitate transatlantic commerce while addressing European privacy
concerns. The agreement sets out rules about U.S. government access to
personal data and creates dispute-settlement mechanisms for individuals
who feel their data has been misused. U.S. companies register for the
program, and the U.S. Department of Commerce conducts reviews to
ensure compliance. Registration is voluntary, but companies that don’t join
are open to prosecution by the EU for failure to comply with their digital
privacy laws.

The privacy shield is critical for enabling international businesses to operate.

One study found that half of the U.S. companies that registered for the
program did so in order to process data and personnel files on their own

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European-based employees. In the absence of the framework, it would be

illegal to share and transfer such information across borders, creating
enormous costs and inefficiencies for global companies and lowering their
productivity at a time when faster productivity growth is needed on both
sides of the Atlantic.

THE ROAD AHEAD

In the face of a growing worldwide backlash against globalization, the need

for new rules to ensure the free flow of data is becoming urgent. The good
news is that several existing pieces of trade legislation have provisions that
could provide a useful starting point for negotiation, helping countries
arrive at balanced agreements that enable the free flow of data while
protecting security and privacy.

For example, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement contained a

chapter on electronic commerce that represented the most modern and
comprehensive approach to data liberalization to date. Among its
provisions were measures that explicitly prohibited countries from requiring
data to be stored on local servers, imposing duties on data flows and digital
goods, or forcing service providers to share valuable source code with
foreign governments or rival companies. The chapter also set standards for
the use of digital authentication and signatures, and required TPP
signatories to enact laws protecting consumers from unsolicited e-mails and
other fraudulent online activity. Although the United States withdrew from
the TPP in January, it may be possible to revive its electronic commerce
chapter within other trade agreements.

Another trade deal that might address data flows is the proposed Trade in
Services Agreement (TISA), a 23-party trade deal that includes the United
States, the EU, Japan, and Australia. Today roughly half of global trade in

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services occurs digitally, and that share is growing rapidly. This makes TISA
an important agreement for advancing rules on free digital trade. The
agreement currently being negotiated includes proposals to open markets
and to establish clearer rules in industries such as licensing, financial
services, telecommunications, and transportation. It would be a small step
to expand TISA to include proposals for protecting the free flow of data.

These multilateral trade deals are not the only avenues for setting rules of
the road. The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF),
for example, has argued for a data services agreement at the WTO that
would commit countries to protecting cross-border data flows. The ITIF
also suggests coming up with so-called Geneva Conventions for data. Just
as the Geneva Conventions set international rules for warfare, the
hypothetical data conventions would establish a standard set of protocols
for handling and securing data—and respecting privacy—that network
administrators, IT professionals, and government regulators around the
world would be expected to adhere to. Such conventions would codify
procedures and help nations create greater regulatory transparency for
companies. 

Like the globalization of trade, digital globalization is not a zero-sum game.

One country’s participation does not necessarily come at another’s expense.
The digital economy has introduced a new set of legitimate concerns, but it
is important to address these through frameworks that do not limit the
substantial benefits that digital globalization can bring. Now more than
ever, it is time for countries to establish a framework that allows them to
take advantage of the opportunities beyond their own borders. 

Copyright © 2021 by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc.

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