Ultratech Cement: CMP: Inr6,485 TP: Inr8,050 (+24%) Market Share Gains Con Nue Buy
Ultratech Cement: CMP: Inr6,485 TP: Inr8,050 (+24%) Market Share Gains Con Nue Buy
Ultratech Cement: CMP: Inr6,485 TP: Inr8,050 (+24%) Market Share Gains Con Nue Buy
9 May 2021
4QFY21 Results Update | Sector: Cement
UltraTech Cement
Es mate change
CMP: INR6,485 TP: INR8,050 (+24%) Buy
TP change
Ra ng change Market share gains con nue
Expansions provide strong growth visibility
Bloomberg UTCEM IN
n UTCEM’s 4QFY21 result was impressive on mul ple counts. While volume
Equity Shares (m) 288
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 1871.9 / 25.5 growth remained above industry, EBITDA/unit was strong at INR1,328/t
52-Week Range (INR) 7050 / 3235 (+18% YoY), driving 51% YoY growth in EBITDA. Net debt fell INR27b QoQ to
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -3/25/43 INR67.2b (0.55x TTM EBITDA).
12M Avg Val (INR M) 3438 n It has grown its market share further due to high clinker availability, which
Financial Snapshot (INR b) helped it meet strong demand for OPC cement in 4QFY21. Its India volumes
Y/E MARCH 2021 2022E 2023E grew 30%/5% YoY in 4Q/FY21, much higher than the 24%/24%/22% growth
Sales 447 509 582 reported by DALBHARA/ACEM/ACC.
EBITDA 116 122 142
n Market share gains should con nue, aided by the ongoing 20mtpa
Adj. PAT 55 63 79
EBITDA Margin (%) 26 24 24 expansion program, which should drive 11% volume CAGR over FY21-24E.
Adj. EPS (INR) 190 220 274 n While we expect industry volumes to decline by 25-30% in the near term
EPS Gr. (%) 31 15 25 due to COVID-related lockdowns, the same should be partly compensated by
BV/Sh. (INR) 1,609 1,806 1,943
improved margins as prices have been strong. Our earnings es mates for
Ra os
Net D:E 0.1 0.1 (0.1) UTCEM for FY22-23E are therefore broadly unchanged. We es mate 19%
RoE (%) 13.2 13.5 15.0 EPS CAGR. The company remains our top largecap pick in the sector.
RoCE (%) 10.3 11.0 12.5
Payout (%) 8.3 6.7 6.7
Lower cost drives 10% beat on EBITDA (up 51% YoY)
Valua ons
P/E (x) 34.1 29.5 23.6
n Consolidated revenue/EBITDA/adjusted PAT rose 33%/51%/57% YoY to
P/BV (x) 4.0 3.6 3.3 INR144.1b/INR36.9b/INR18.1b, 4%/10%/4% higher than our es mate.
EV/EBITDA(x) 16.7 15.7 12.9 n Consolidated volumes rose 28% YoY to 27.78mt (v/s our expecta on of
EV/ton (USD) 238 226 192
27mt), with India volumes up 30% YoY. EBITDA/t surprised posi vely at
Div. Yield (%) 0.6 0.6 0.8
FCF Yield (%) 5.7 3.2 4.7 INR1,328/t (+18% YoY, +2% QoQ) v/s our es mate of INR1,241/t.
n While blended realiza on rose 4% YoY to INR5,186/t (+1% QoQ), cost
Shareholding pa ern (%) surprised posi vely and was flat YoY at INR3,857/t (+1% QoQ). Freight and
As On Mar-21 Dec-20 Mar-20 fuel cost were under control, despite the sharp rise in diesel and petcoke
Promoter 60.0 60.0 59.7 prices.
DII 13.8 14.2 14.2 n Other income fell 70% YoY to INR603m due to a rise in bond yields in
FII 17.4 16.9 16.6
4QFY21. Finance cost fell 25% YoY to INR3.8b on a sharp reduc on in debt.
Others 8.9 9.0 9.5
n Consolidated net debt fell further by INR27b QoQ to INR67.2b (implying
FII Includes depository receipts
0.55x TTM EBITDA). Consolidated net debt declined INR102.6b in FY21.
n FY21 consolidated revenue/EBITDA/adjusted PAT rose 5%/23%/31% YoY to
INR447.3b/INR115.7b/INR55b, while OCF/capex/FCF stood at
INR125b/INR18.4b/INR106.7b (v/s INR89.7b/INR16.9b/INR72.9b in FY20).
n UTCEM has announced a higher dividend of INR37/share (20% payout).
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Key exhibits
Exhibit 1: Cement volumes up 28% YoY in 4QFY21 Exhibit 2: Cement realiza ons up 4% YoY in 4QFY21
Volume (mt) YoY growth (%)
Realiza ons (INR)
39 35
33
29 29 31 28
18 14
8
7
1 -2 -4
-15
-31
EBITDA/t (INR)
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Deleveraging delivered, soon to be a net cash company: Net debt has declined to
INR67b (0.55x TTM EBITDA) as of Mar’21 from a peak of INR217b (3x of EBITDA) in
FY19. Despite ongoing capex, we now expect UTCEM to become a net cash company
in the next one year.
Robust earnings growth with a rac ve valua ons; reiterate Buy: We es mate
11%/19% CAGR in consolidated EBITDA/PAT over FY21-23E, driven by 11% CAGR in
volumes, lower opera ng costs, and lower interest costs. The valua on is
reasonable at 12.9x FY23E EV/EBITDA – a 10% discount to its last five years’ average.
We value UTCEM at 16x FY23E EV/EBITDA to arrive at a TP of INR8,050. Reiterate
Buy.
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Story in charts
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Exhibit 5: U liza on to rise in FY22E on strong growth Exhibit 6: EBITDA/t to remain strong
79
76 75 75
73 74 72 71 71
69
67
Exhibit 7: Expect 11% EBITDA CAGR over FY21-23E Exhibit 8: Return ra os to improve consistently
EBITDA (INR bn) EBITDA margin (%) 13.9 RoE (%) RoCE (%)
26
24 24 12.5
23 22
21 10.6 10.3 11.0
19 19 20 9.4 9.7
18 18 9.4 9.5
8.4
7.1
19
14 14 15
12 12 12 13
12
48 40 44 49 52 61 73 94 116 122 142 10 8
18 200
12 160
6 120
0 80
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Total Income from Opera ons 251,532 253,749 309,786 416,088 424,299 447,258 509,419 581,992
Change (%) 3.3 0.9 22.1 34.3 2.0 5.4 13.9 14.2
Raw Materials 44,175 44,926 52,888 69,831 65,181 70,858 78,766 90,361
Employees Cost 14,450 15,223 18,102 22,911 25,199 23,530 25,876 27,637
Other Expenses 143,898 141,476 177,344 249,877 240,141 237,191 282,801 321,750
Total Expenditure 202,523 201,625 248,335 342,619 330,520 331,579 387,442 439,748
% of Sales 80.5 79.5 80.2 82.3 77.9 74.1 76.1 75.6
EBITDA 49,010 52,124 61,452 73,469 93,779 115,679 121,977 142,244
Margin (%) 19.5 20.5 19.8 17.7 22.1 25.9 23.9 24.4
Deprecia on 13,772 13,484 18,479 24,507 27,227 27,002 28,322 29,636
EBIT 35,238 38,640 42,972 48,962 66,552 88,677 93,654 112,609
Int. and Finance Charges 5,663 6,401 12,376 17,779 19,917 14,857 11,579 9,625
Other Income 4,638 6,481 5,886 4,634 6,511 7,342 9,875 11,835
PBT bef. EO Exp. 34,213 38,721 36,482 35,818 53,146 81,162 91,950 114,819
EO Items 0 0 -3,466 -1,139 19,788 -2,607 0 0
PBT a er EO Exp. 34,213 38,721 33,016 34,679 72,934 78,555 91,950 114,819
Total Tax 9,417 11,586 10,770 10,681 15,413 25,387 28,514 35,601
Tax Rate (%) 27.5 29.9 32.6 30.8 21.1 32.3 31.0 31.0
Minority Interest 16 -14 24 -37 -32 -34 5 5
Reported PAT 24,780 27,149 22,222 24,035 57,553 53,202 63,431 79,212
Adjusted PAT 24,780 27,149 24,557 24,823 41,946 54,967 63,431 79,212
Change (%) 18.1 9.6 -9.5 1.1 69.0 31.0 15.4 24.9
Margin (%) 9.9 10.7 7.9 6.0 9.9 12.3 12.5 13.6
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Cash EPS 140.5 148.0 156.7 179.6 239.7 284.0 317.9 377.1
BV/Share 800.4 889.4 961.4 1,229.8 1,424.9 1,608.6 1,805.9 1,942.8
DPS 8.9 9.4 9.5 10.5 11.5 37.0 40.0 50.0
Payout (%) 11.8 11.5 14.0 14.5 8.6 8.3 6.7 6.7
Valua on (x)
P/E 71.7 44.6 34.1 29.5 23.6
Cash P/E 36.1 27.1 22.8 20.4 17.2
P/BV 5.3 4.6 4.0 3.6 3.3
EV/Sales 4.8 4.8 4.3 3.8 3.2
EV/t (USD) 250.8 251.0 238.5 226.4 192.5
EV/EBITDA 27.2 21.7 16.7 15.7 12.9
Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.8
FCF per share 156.8 249.4 369.4 209.7 305.1
Return Ra os (%)
RoE 12.1 11.7 9.7 8.3 11.5 13.2 13.5 15.0
RoCE 9.4 9.7 8.4 7.1 9.5 10.3 11.0 12.5
RoIC 9.2 9.7 8.2 6.4 8.5 10.2 11.3 13.2
Working Capital Ra os
Inventory (Days) 36 35 38 36 36 33 31 31
Debtor (Days) 28 25 26 24 19 21 22 22
Creditor (Days) 25 27 28 28 30 38 33 33
Leverage Ra o (x)
Current Ra o 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.6
Interest Coverage Ra o 6.2 6.0 3.5 2.8 3.3 6.0 8.1 11.7
Net Debt/Equity 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.1
9 May 2021 7
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NOTES
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9 May 2021 9
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Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst:
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* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National
Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.
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