Analytics

Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy 7 December 2020

► GLOBAL ► COMMODITIES ► GLOBAL MARKETS

CTA Position Tracker Bart Melek

Head of Commodity
Strategy

Ryan McKay
Energy Risk Commodity Rankings: Ready, Set, Vote! Commodity Strategist

Daniel Ghali
Thank you for voting. We much appreciate your support.
Commodity Strategist

Daily Tracking of Systematic Trend Followers (Dec 07, 2020)

TDS CTA Position Tracker

1
Buying/ Market a Proximity to Implied Target
Current/Target CTA Positioning 1d ago
d Nearest Trigger Implied Flow**
Selling (Futures) Market* Position**
a
Copper 47% 48% $6,796 14%

Aluminium 43% 44% $1,800 14%

Zinc 36% 36% $2,480 5%

Nickel 80% 79% $15,269 34%

Lead 36% 36% $1,927 16%

Gold 20% 21% $1,744.90 -13%

Silver 16% 16% $26.83 21%

Platinum 11% 8% $987.80 5%
Palladium 21% 21% $2,328.00 -4%
WTI Crude 3% 3% $39.06 -2%
Brent Crude 3% 3% $44.79 -4%
Gasoline 4% 4% 107.70 -5%
Heating Oil 9% 9% 124.05 -9%
HH Natural Gas -44% -42% $2.68 -7%
E-mini S&P 25% 26% 3,324 10%
E-mini Nasdaq 32% 29% 11,047 15%
E-mini Dow 23% 23% 27,573 7%
EUR 42% 42% 1.1839 13%
JPY 58% 59% 94.3500 18%
CAD 44% 45% 75.8200 9%
GBP 47% 43%
T-Note -36% -36% 138.41 13%
Bund 61% 62% 176.33 13%
CGB -40% -34% 151.87 19%
Long Gilt -28% -28% 135.90 8%
Current CTA Positioning Target Positioning

a
As a percentage of maximum historical position *Proximity of prices relative to nearest trigger (larger bar: closer proximity); **Position/flow implied by a break above (below) key trigger level, at close.
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

This report is a marketing communication. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements, as outlined in the UK FCA’s COBS, designed to promote the independence of investment research and is also
not subject to any prohibition of dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, although as a matter of policy TD Securities requires its employees not to deal ahead of the dissemination of this report.

TD Securities Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy 7 December 2020 CTA Position Tracker 1
 Analytics

Base Metals
Copper's red hot rally is running on fumes. We've noted that the vaccine announcement catalyzed a second
wave of stockpiling in China, fueling China's insatiable appetite for metals and is ultimately giving rise to
a perceived tightness in LME metals as the Middle Kindgom sapped metal away from of the rest-of-world.
Today, real-time indicators continue to signal a slowing in commodity demand growth, for the first time since
the pandemic's carnage in March, raising concerns over how long Chinese stockpiling could be sustainable
without an underlying growth impulse. In fact, our global metals supply factor is now showing it's first signs of
weakness since October, implying that the supply risk premium that has fueled metals prices over the past
weeks may imminently be fading. This is particularly the case for the red metal, as a massive round of short
covering in SHFE from the China Smart Money Group of funds appears to have run its course. In turn, copper
prices in China may no longer be supported by speculative flow to the same extent as the past few weeks. And,
speculators across the LME and COMEX have built a substantial amount of positioning froth, yet the edge that
recently helped fuel higher prices is being eroded. Notwithstanding, we estimate that CTA trend followers hold a
substantial margin of safety before adverse price action catalyzes a substantial change in positioning.

Precious Metals
Gold recovered from the capitulation-induced meltdown, but traders must now consider what comes next. We
see reasons to be optimistic about gold prices, as a weak print on non-farm payrolls provides further impetus
for policymakers to do more. After all, the stalemate on fiscal stimulus negotiations is finally likely to end soon,
with House Democrats no longer holding out for a $2tn+ package: Speaker Pelosi has endorsed a bipartisan
$0.9tn plan, suggesting a deal is within reach. At the same time, the Fed will likely increase the weighted
average maturity of its Treasury purchases, helping to suppress term premium and thereby to support precious
metals. A continued economic recovery will once again fuel investment appetite in gold as an inflation-hedge
asset. In fact, 5y5y inflation swaps continue to suggest that long-term inflation expectations are rising, which
should ultimately drive capital to shelter itself in the yellow metal's warm embrace. The recent strength in the
precious metals complex is sparking a buying program in platinum, which creates substantial tailwinds for
prices in the near-term.

Energy Markets
The OPEC+ group of producers finally reached an agreement to ease oil-production cuts next year, although
more slowly than previously planned. Ultimately, the plan gives traders confidence that gradual increases in
demand will allow the market to absorb the additional output, while draining excess inventories. Price action
in Brent spreads confirmed our view that the market balance will continue to tighten as the global economy
recovers from the COVID-19 shock. However, with uncertainty over OPEC policy out of the way, energy
traders will turn their focus to US foreign policy, particularly as reports suggest that Iran is preparing to raise oil
production, testing the President-Elect's policies. On the demand-side of the equation, we flagged that our real-
time indicators are implying a stalling in the growth impulse, for the first time since the pandemic's carnage. At
the same time, the end of a CTA buying program across crude oil and products suggests that the impulse for
higher spot prices is also on the wane.

TD Securities Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy 7 December 2020 CTA Position Tracker 2
 Analytics

CTA Position Tracker

TDS CTA Position Tracker — Copper TDS CTA Position Tracker — Aluminium
7500 100% 2150 100%

80% 80%
7000 2050
60% 60%
6500 40% 1950 40%

% max historical

% max historical
20% 20%
6000 1850
0% 0%
$/t

$/t
5500 1750
-20% -20%

5000 -40% 1650 -40%

-60% -60%
4500 1550
-80% -80%

4000 -100% 1450 -100%

12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020 12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Copper Prices CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Aluminium Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

3000 TDS CTA Position Tracker — Zinc 50% TDS CTA Position Tracker — Nickel
17100 100%
40%
2800 80%
30% 16100

2600 20% 60%

15100
% max historical

10%

% max historical
2400 40%
0% 14100
$/t

20%
$/t

-10%
2200
13100
-20%
0%
2000 -30% 12100
-20%
-40%
1800
-50% 11100 -40%
1600 -60%
12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020 10100 -60%
12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Zinc Prices CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Nickel Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

TDS CTA Position Tracker — Lead

2200 100%

80%
2100
60%
2000
40%
% max historical

1900
20%

1800 0%
$/t

-20%
1700
-40%
1600
-60%
1500
-80%

1400 -100%
12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Lead Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

TD Securities Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy 7 December 2020 CTA Position Tracker 3
 Analytics

CTA Position Tracker

TDS CTA Position Tracker — Gold TDS CTA Position Tracker — Silver
2200 100% 31 100%

2100 80% 29 80%

2000 60% 27 60%

1900 40% 25 40%

% max historical
% max historical
1800 20% 23 20%

$/oz
$/oz

1700 0% 21 0%

1600 -20% 19 -20%

1500 -40% 17 -40%

1400 -60% 15 -60%

1300 -80% 13 -80%

1200 -100% 11 -100%

12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020 12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Gold Prices CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Silver Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

TDS CTA Position Tracker — Platinum TDS CTA Position Tracker — Palladium
1100 100% 3250 100%

1050 80% 80%

1000 60% 2750 60%

950 40% 40%

% max historical

% max historical
900 20% 2250 20%
$/oz

$/oz

850 0% 0%

800 -20% 1750 -20%

750 -40% -40%

700 -60% 1250 -60%

650 -80% -80%

600 -100% 750 -100%

12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020 12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Platinum Prices CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Palladium Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

TD Securities Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy 7 December 2020 CTA Position Tracker 4
 Analytics

CTA Position Tracker

TDS CTA Position Tracker — WTI Crude TDS CTA Position Tracker — Brent
100 100% 100 100%

90 80% 80%
90
60% 60%
80
80
40% 40%
70

% max historical
% max historical
70
20% 20%
60

$/bbl
$/bbl

0% 60 0%
50
-20% -20%
50
40
-40% -40%
40
30 -60% -60%
20 30
-80% -80%

10 -100% 20 -100%
12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020 12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted WTI Crude Prices CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Brent Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

TDS CTA Position Tracker — Gasoline TDS CTA Position Tracker — Heating Oil
200 100% 270 100%
80% 250 80%
180
60% 60%
230
160 40% 40%
210
% max historical

% max historical
20% 20%
140
$c/gallon

$c/gallon

190
0% 0%
120 170
-20% -20%
150
100 -40% -40%
-60% 130 -60%
80
-80% 110 -80%
60 -100% 90 -100%
12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020 12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Gasoline Prices CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted HO Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

TDS CTA Position Tracker — NatGas

5.5 100%

5 80%

4.5 60%

40%
4
% max historical

20%
$c/gallon

3.5
0%
3
-20%
2.5
-40%
2 -60%
1.5 -80%

1 -100%
12/2/2019 3/2/2020 6/2/2020 9/2/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Natgas Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

TD Securities Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy 7 December 2020 CTA Position Tracker 5
 Analytics

CTA Position Tracker

TDS CTA Position Tracker — E-Mini S&P TDS CTA Position Tracker — NQ
3800 100% 13500 100%

80% 80%
3600 12500
60% 60%
3400 11500
40% 40%

% max historical
% max historical
3200 10500
20% 20%

3000 0% 9500 0%

-20% -20%
2800 8500
-40% -40%
2600 7500
-60% -60%
2400 6500
-80% -80%

2200 -100% 5500 -100%

12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020 12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted S&P Prices CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted NQ Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

TDS CTA Position Tracker — Dow TDS CTA Position Tracker — T-Note
32000 100% 145 100%

80% 80%
30000
140 60%
60%
28000 40%
% max historical

% max historical
40%
135 20%
26000 20% 0%

0% 130 -20%
24000
-40%
-20%
22000 125 -60%
-40%
-80%
20000 -60% 120 -100%
12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020 12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Dow Prices CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted T-Note Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

TDS CTA Position Tracker — Bund TDS CTA Position Tracker — CGB
182 100% 155 100%

180 80% 80%

178 60% 150 60%

40% 40%
176
% max historical

% max historical
20% 145 20%
174
0% 0%
172
-20% 140 -20%
170
-40% -40%
168 -60% 135 -60%
166 -80% -80%
164 -100% 130 -100%
12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020 12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Bund Prices CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted CGB Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

TD Securities Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy 7 December 2020 CTA Position Tracker 6
 Analytics

CTA Position Tracker

TDS CTA Position Tracker — Long Gilts
140 100%

138 80%

136 60%

40%
134

% max historical
20%
132
0%
130
-20%
128
-40%
126 -60%
124 -80%

122 -100%
12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted Long Gilt Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

TDS CTA Position Tracker — GBP

TDS CTA Position Tracker — EUR
140.00 100% 1.24 100%

80% 1.22 80%

135.00 60% 1.2 60%

40% 1.18 40%

% max historical
% max historical

130.00 20% 1.16 20%

0% 1.14 0%

125.00 -20% 1.12 -20%

-40% 1.1 -40%

120.00 -60% 1.08 -60%

-80% 1.06 -80%

115.00 -100% 1.04 -100%

12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020 12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted GBP Futures Prices CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted EUR Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

TDS CTA Position Tracker — JPY TDS CTA Position Tracker — CAD
100 100% 79 100%
80% 80%
98
77
60% 60%
96
40% 75 40%
% max historical

94 % max historical
20% 20%
73
92 0% 0%
-20% 71
90 -20%
-40% -40%
88 69
-60% -60%
86 67
-80% -80%
84 -100% 65 -100%
12/2/2019 3/2/2020 6/2/2020 9/2/2020
12/9/2019 3/9/2020 6/9/2020 9/9/2020
CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted JPY Prices CTA Positioning Estimate Roll-Adjusted CAD Prices
Source: TDS Commodity Strategy Source: TDS Commodity Strategy

TD Securities Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy 7 December 2020 CTA Position Tracker 7
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TD Securities Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy 7 December 2020 CTA Position Tracker 8
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TD Securities Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy 7 December 2020 CTA Position Tracker 9
 Global Strategy
Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy

Global Strategy
Richard Kelly Head of Global Strategy [email protected] 44 (0)20 7786 8448

Global Macro
James Rossiter Head of Global Macro Strategy [email protected] 44 (0)20 7786 8422
Jim O'Sullivan Chief US Macro Strategist [email protected] 1 212 827 6922
Jacqui Douglas Chief European Macro Strategist [email protected] 44 (0)20 7786 8439
Robert Both Macro Strategist [email protected] 1 416 983 0859
Oscar Munoz Macro Strategist [email protected] 1 212 827 7405

Global Rates
Priya Misra Head of Global Rates Strategy [email protected] 1 212 827 7156
Andrew Kelvin Chief Canada Strategist [email protected] 1 416 983 7184
Prashant Newnaha Senior Asia-Pacific Rates Strategist [email protected] 65 6500 8047
Gennadiy Goldberg Senior US Rates Strategist [email protected] 1 212 827 7180
Pooja Kumra Senior European Rates Strategist [email protected] 44 (0)20 7786 8433
Chris Whelan Senior Canada Rates Strategist [email protected] 1 416 983 0445
Penglu Zhao G10 Rates Quantitative Strategist [email protected] 1 212 827 7643

FX Strategy
Mark McCormick Global Head of FX Strategy [email protected] 1 416 982 7784
Ned Rumpeltin European Head of FX Strategy [email protected] 44 (0)20 7786 8420
Mazen Issa Senior FX Strategist [email protected] 1 212 827 7182
Ray Ng FX Quantitative Strategist [email protected]

EM Strategy
Cristian Maggio Head of Emerging Markets Strategy [email protected] 44 (0)20 7786 8436
Sacha Tihanyi Deputy Head of Emerging Markets Strategy [email protected] 1 416 307 7699
Mitul Kotecha Senior Emerging Markets Strategist [email protected] 65 6500 8047
Izidor Flajsman Emerging Markets Strategist [email protected] 44 (0)207 786 8414

Commodities
Bart Melek Head of Commodity Strategy [email protected] 1 416 983 9288
Ryan McKay Commodity Strategist [email protected] 1 416 982 5816
Daniel Ghali Commodity Strategist [email protected] 1 416 983 8075

TD Securities Global Rates, FX & Commodities Strategy 7 December 2020 CTA Position Tracker 10
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