Lecture 15: Adaptation To Climate Change, Crop Simulation Models in Developing Adaptation Strategies

Lecture 15: Adaptation to climate change, Crop simulation models in developing
adaptation strategies
Climate change adaptation refers to actions that reduce the negative impact of climate
change, while taking advantage of potential new opportunities. It involves adjusting policies
and actions because of observed or expected changes in climate. Adaptation can be reactive,
occurring in response to climate impacts, or anticipatory, occurring before impacts of climate
change are observed. In most circumstances, anticipatory adaptations will result in lower
long-term costs and be more effective than reactive adaptations.Adaptation (responding to
climate impacts) and mitigation (reducing GHG emissions) are necessary complements in
addressing climate change.
Model:
A model is a simplified representation of a system or a process. A model is a computer
program, which describes the mechanism of the process or a system.
Modelling:
Modelling is based on the assumption that any given process can be expressed in a form of
mathematical statement or set of statements or a sets of statements to depict the real world
system. Modelling is classified into descriptive modelling and explanatory modelling.
Crop simulation model: Simple representation of a crop.
Crop simulation models are tools of systems research which help in solving problems related
to crop production.
Need simulation models
 To assimilate knowledge gained from field experimentation
 To provide a structure that promotes interdisciplinary collaboration
 To promote the use of systems analysis for solving problems
Crop models require certain input data which is used by the model to further generate the
required output.
Soil MO
Climate
Plant DD Crop Yield
Management E
E
Crop growth simulation models provide a means to quantify the effects of climate, soil and
management on crop growth, productivity and sustainability of agricultural production. These
tools can reduce the need for expensive and time-consuming field experimentation as they
can be used to extrapolate the results of research conducted in one season or location to other
seasons, locations, or management. The development and application of system approaches
and decision support methods can help to identify strategies for optimising resource use,
increasing productivity, identifying yield gaps and reducing adverse environmental impacts.
Several dynamic crop growth simulation models such as DSSAT, CERES, WOFOST, SU-
CROS, and APSIM have been developed during the last few decades. These models integrate
the effects of different factors on productivity and have been used to determine the
production potential, optimize crop management, quantify yield gaps, and to study the
consequences of climatic variability and climatic change (Kropff et aI., 1996; Berge et aI.,
1997; Tsuji et aI., 1998; Matthews and Stephens, 2002). At the same time, several other
models such as EPIC (Williams and Renerd, 1985), DAISY (Hansen et aI., 1990), CANDY
(Franko et aI., 1996), and CENTURY (Parton et aI., 1993) were developed, which described
the soil carbon dynamics in detail. Lately, some models such as MERES (Matthews et aI.,
2000) and DNDC (Li, 2000) have been developed that have a routine for the calculation of
emission of greenhouse gases from agro-ecosystems.
Possible applications of crop model:
A. Estimation of potential yields:
Calibrated and validated model will predict the potential yield perfectly under no
stress condition
B. Estimation of yield gaps:
Model will be used to estimate the yield gaps between potential yield and attainable
yield, Potential yield and actual yield, Potential yield and farmers yield. It also finds
the principal causes, contribution and remedial measures for yield gap and bridging
the yield gap
C. Yield forecasting:
Calibrated and validated models will be further used yield forecasting, which will be
useful for marketing of their produce in right time at right place and at right price
D. Climate variability and climate change impact assessment:
The models are also be used for quantifying the climate variability (Short term) and
climate change (long term) effect on the agricultural production. The models are used to
assess the impact of climate change and climate variability on weeds, insect pests and
diseases dynamics.
E. Optimizing management:
The calibrated and validated models are used to optimize the agronomical management
such as dates of planting/ sowing, variety (Short, medium or long), irrigation ( Amount,
time and method of application) and nitrogen fertilizer ( Amount, time and method of
application)
F. Environmental impact:
The environmental impact such as percolation, N lossess, GHG emission, SOC dynamic
are also be assessed by crop simulation model
G. Plant type design and evaluation
The validated model is used to design a plant type of variety and evaluation of variety in
the different location and different period. It will reduce huge experimental cost and
environmental degradation

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