GEP June 2020 Chapter1 Box2
GEP June 2020 Chapter1 Box2
GEP June 2020 Chapter1 Box2
1 Recent developments
1.2.1.A. Coronavirus infections in LICs
1.2.1.B. Activity in LICs as reflected by changes in community mobility and air pollution
1.2.1.C. Stringency of containment measures in LICs
1.2.1.D. GDP growth in major LIC trading partners
1.2.1.E. LIC sovereign borrowing costs
1.2.1.F. Remittances in LICs in 2019
Figure 1.2.2 Outlook and risks
1.2.2.A. GDP growth
1.2.2.B. Growth per capita
1.2.2.C. Children affected by disruptions to school feeding programs in LICs
1.2.2.D. Health sector preparedness in LICs
1.2.2.E. Food insecurity in LICs
1.2.2.F. Agricultural GDP growth in years of locust outbreaks
d air pollution
Figure 1.2.1.A. Coronavirus infections in LICs
Number of cases Nu
50,000 2
New cases (RHS)
40,000 LICs total 2
30,000 1
20,000 1
10,000 5
0 0
1/22/...
3/22/...
2/22/...
4/22/...
5/22/...
1,000 2/4/2020
2/5/2020
1
1
2/6/2020 1
2/7/2020 1
500 2/8/2020
2/9/2020
1
1
2/10/2020 1
2/11/2020 1
0 2/12/2020
2/13/2020
1
1
5/22/...
2/14/2020 1
2/15/2020 1
2/16/2020 1
2/17/2020 1
2/18/2020 1
2/19/2020 1
2/20/2020 1
2/21/2020 1
bservation is May 29, 2020. 2/22/2020 1
2/23/2020 1
2/24/2020 2
2/25/2020 2
2/26/2020 2
2/27/2020 2
2/28/2020 2
2/29/2020 2
3/1/2020 2
3/2/2020 2
3/3/2020 2
3/4/2020 2
3/5/2020 2
3/6/2020 3
3/7/2020 3
3/8/2020 6
3/9/2020 6
3/10/2020 8
3/11/2020 12
3/12/2020 12
3/13/2020 15
3/14/2020 20
3/15/2020 27
3/16/2020 56
3/17/2020 61
3/18/2020 73
3/19/2020 100
3/20/2020 141
3/21/2020 181
3/22/2020 228
3/23/2020 306
3/24/2020 383
3/25/2020 458
3/26/2020 501
3/27/2020 580
3/28/2020 644
3/29/2020 734
3/30/2020 871
3/31/2020 960
4/1/2020 1138
4/2/2020 1283
4/3/2020 1396
4/4/2020 1553
4/5/2020 1718
4/6/2020 1879
4/7/2020 2067
4/8/2020 2258
4/9/2020 2452
4/10/2020 2643
4/11/2020 2863
4/12/2020 3028
4/13/2020 3260
4/14/2020 3488
4/15/2020 3725
4/16/2020 3879
4/17/2020 4218
4/18/2020 4423
4/19/2020 4687
4/20/2020 4998
4/21/2020 5277
4/22/2020 5562
4/23/2020 5904
4/24/2020 6229
4/25/2020 6548
4/26/2020 6781
4/27/2020 7253
4/28/2020 7645
4/29/2020 8356
4/30/2020 8942
5/1/2020 9377
5/2/2020 9898
5/3/2020 10338
5/4/2020 11056
5/5/2020 11821
5/6/2020 12484
5/7/2020 13321
5/8/2020 14139
5/9/2020 14896
5/10/2020 15748
5/11/2020 16375
5/12/2020 17347
5/13/2020 18136
5/14/2020 19199
5/15/2020 20359
5/16/2020 21735
5/17/2020 22641
5/18/2020 23898
5/19/2020 24917
5/20/2020 26196
5/21/2020 27711
5/22/2020 29047
5/23/2020 30757
5/24/2020 32204
5/25/2020 33935
5/26/2020 35445
5/27/2020 37100
5/28/2020 38985
5/29/2020 41000
New cases (RHS)
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
3
0
2
4
0
3
5
7
29
5
12
27
41
40
47
78
77
75
43
79
64
90
137
89
178
145
113
157
165
161
188
191
194
191
220
165
232
228
237
154
339
205
264
311
279
285
342
325
319
233
472
392
711
586
435
521
440
718
765
663
837
818
757
852
627
972
789
1063
1160
1376
906
1257
1019
1279
1515
1336
1710
1447
1731
1510
1655
1885
2015
Figure 1.2.1.B. Activity in LICs as reflected by changes in co
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Retail Grocery Transit
and and stations
recreation pharmacy
Source: Air Quality Open Data Platform; Google LLC.
Note: LICs = low-income countries. “Retail and recreation” reflect how visits and length of s
restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters
baseline period January 3 to February 6, 2020. “Grocery and pharmacy” reflect places such
warehouses, farmers markets, specialty food shops, drug stores, and pharmacies. “Transit
public transport hubs such as subway, bus, and train stations. The data are calculated by G
and anonymized location history of a subset of its users. Data reflect monthly percent chan
pollution” reflects monthly percent changes in particle matter (PM2.5) air pollution relative to
to February 6, 2020. Sample for “Retail and recreation”, “Grocery and pharmacy”, and “Tra
restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters
baseline period January 3 to February 6, 2020. “Grocery and pharmacy” reflect places such
warehouses, farmers markets, specialty food shops, drug stores, and pharmacies. “Transit
public transport hubs such as subway, bus, and train stations. The data are calculated by G
and anonymized location history of a subset of its users. Data reflect monthly percent chan
pollution” reflects monthly percent changes in particle matter (PM2.5) air pollution relative to
to February 6, 2020. Sample for “Retail and recreation”, “Grocery and pharmacy”, and “Tra
Sample for “Air pollution” includes 3 LICs.
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hanges in community mobility and air pollution
April May
March
Retail
and
recreation -11.5
Grocery
and
pharmacy -5.3
Transit
stations -10.8
Air
pollution -22.1
Transit Air
stations pollution
-35.0 -31.4
-25.8 -19.8
-40.7 -36.1
-33.4 -42.8
Figure 1.2.1.C. Stringency of containment measures in LICs
Index Interquartile range Interqu
100 Median
80
60
40
20
0
1-Feb-20 1-Apr-20
e Interquartile range
r-20
-5
-10
19Q3
China19Q4
20Q1
19Q3
Euro ...19Q4
20Q1
19Q3
Source: Haver Analytics, International Monetary Fund.
Note: LIC = low-income country. “Share of LIC exports” reflects goods exports.
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partners
growth Percent
2020 Quarterly GDP growth
15
10
0
19Q3
United ...19Q4
20Q1
China Euro Area United States
19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1
6.0 6.0 -6.8 1.3 1.0 -3.3
18.6 18.6 18.6 12.9 12.9 12.9
1.0 -9.1
United States
19Q3 19Q4 20Q1
2.1 2.3 0.3
5.0 5.0 5.0
-6.1
Figure 1.2.1.E. LIC sovereign borrowing costs
12
3
1/1/2020 2/1/2020 3/3/2020 4/3/2020
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Data for Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Rwanda reflect yields on the 2024, 2031, and 20
respectively. Last observation is May 29, 2020.
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zambique Rwanda Ethiopia
1/2/2020 4.6
1/3/2020 4.6
1/6/2020 4.6
1/7/2020 4.4
1/8/2020 4.4
1/9/2020 4.4
1/10/2020 4.4
1/13/2020 4.4
1/14/2020 4.4
1/15/2020 4.4
1/16/2020 4.4
1/17/2020 4.4
1/20/2020 4.4
1/21/2020 4.4
1/22/2020 4.4
1/23/2020 4.4
1/24/2020 4.5
1/27/2020 4.7
1/28/2020 4.6
1/29/2020 4.6
1/30/2020 4.7
1/31/2020 4.7
2/3/2020 4.8
Percent of GDP
40 LICs Non-LIC EMDE
30
20
10
0
Tajikistan
The Gambia
Togo
Yemen
Liberia
South Sudan
Nepal
Haiti
Uganda
South Sudan
Afghanistan
Mali
1.6 4.8
0.4 4.1
6.0
8.0 6.0
8.0
-4.0 -4.0
1.2.2.B. Growth per capita
Percent Other LICs
6
Fragile LICs
4
-2
-4
-6
2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: World Bank.
Notes: Shaded area indicates forecasts. LICs = Low-income countries. Fragile LICs are LIC
conflict, and violence. Aggregate per capita growth rates calculated by dividing the total GD
market exchange rates for each subgroup by its total population. Sample includes 27 LICs
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2017
Other LICs 4.0
Fragile LICs -0.6
LIC Total 2.5
2020 2021
Percent
30
20
10
0
Fragile LICs Othe
Source: World Food Programme.
Note: LICs = low-income countries. Fragile LICs are LICs affected by fragility, conflict, and
on World Food Programme’s implementation plan as of March 2020.
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ns to school feeding programs in LICs
Fragile LICs
12.1
Other LICs
EMDEs
EMDEs
L IC s
L IC s
AEs
AEs
R a p id re s p o n s e a n d
E a rly d e te c tio n a n d
m itig a tio n
re p o rtin g
Source: Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and NTI, Global Health Security Index.
Note: LICs = low-income countries. “Early detection and reporting” reflects countries’ capac
epidemics of potential international concern; “Rapid response and mitigation” reflects their a
mitigate the spread of an epidemic; and “Sufficient and robust health sector” reflects the ca
the sick and protect health workers. Data reflects 2019. Sample includes 31 LICs, 123 EMD
economies. EMDEs exclude LICs.
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Early detection and
reporting
AEs
AEs 69.0
EMDEs
LICs
EMDEs
L IC s
L IC s
AEs
S u ffic ie n t a n d ro b u s t
h e a lth s e c to r
Security Index.
s countries’ capacity for detecting and reporting
on” reflects their ability to respond to and
or” reflects the capacity of health sectors to treat
31 LICs, 123 EMDEs, and 35 advanced
Early detection and Rapid response and Sufficient and robust
reporting mitigation health sector
EMDEs LICs AEs EMDEs LICs AEs EMDEs LICs
54.1 48.5
38.6 36.5 23.4
29.9 31.0 14.5
Figure 1.2.2.E. Food insecurity in LICs
75
50
25
0
Number of people Populati
in crisis share (R
Source: World Food Programme.
Note: LICs = low-income countries. "Number of people in crisis" reflects those classified as
Phase Classification (IPC/CH) Phase 3, i.e., in acute food insecurity crisis or worse, in 2019
the sample median. Whiskers reflect the interquartile range. Sample includes 25 LICs.
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0.25
0.75
Percent
AR MNA LAC
40 Population share
Food insecurity
30
20
10
0
Population
share (RHS)
-2
-4
-6
Burkina Guinea- Mali Mada
Faso Bissau (2004) ar
(2004) (2004) (2013
Source: World Bank.
Note: Brackets reflect years of past locust outbreaks.
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of locust outbreaks
Percentage
RHS) points
0
-1
-2
Madagasc
) ar
(2013)
Burkina Guinea-
Faso Bissau Mali
(2004) (2004) (2004)
Agricultural GDP -3.5 -1.7 -2.3
Contribution to GDP (RHS) -1.3 -0.8 -0.7
Madagascar
(2013)
-5.0
-1.5