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    Equation and Interpretation

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    Vyl Cebreros
    The document contains sales data and linear regression forecasts for years 2017, 2018, and 2019. It provides actual sales numbers from previous years, estimated collection percentages, and target sales numbers for the forecast years. Linear regression lines are fitted to sales data from the previous two years to forecast sales for each month in the coming year, along with estimation errors. Graphs are presented comparing actual and forecasted sales.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Equation and Interpretation

    Uploaded by

    Vyl Cebreros
    41 views8 pages
    The document contains sales data and linear regression forecasts for years 2017, 2018, and 2019. It provides actual sales numbers from previous years, estimated collection percentages, and target sales numbers for the forecast years. Linear regression lines are fitted to sales data from the previous two years to forecast sales for each month in the coming year, along with estimation errors. Graphs are presented comparing actual and forecasted sales.

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    © © All Rights Reserved

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    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

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    The document contains sales data and linear regression forecasts for years 2017, 2018, and 2019. It provides actual sales numbers from previous years, estimated collection percentages, and target sales numbers for the forecast years. Linear regression lines are fitted to sales data from the previous two years to forecast sales for each month in the coming year, along with estimation errors. Graphs are presented comparing actual and forecasted sales.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    41 views8 pages

    Equation and Interpretation

    Uploaded by

    Vyl Cebreros
    The document contains sales data and linear regression forecasts for years 2017, 2018, and 2019. It provides actual sales numbers from previous years, estimated collection percentages, and target sales numbers for the forecast years. Linear regression lines are fitted to sales data from the previous two years to forecast sales for each month in the coming year, along with estimation errors. Graphs are presented comparing actual and forecasted sales.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 8

    FORECASTING

    2017

    Actual Sales of Collections


    SN 2016 Percentage Target Sales for 2017
    1 13,763.50 60% 8,258.10
    2 11,844.15 60% 7,106.49
    3 15,050.82 60% 9,030.49
    4 11,173.19 60% 6,703.91
    5 10,073.65 60% 6,044.19
    6 8,500.22 60% 5,100.13
    7 8,885.72 60% 5,331.43
    8 9,821.17 60% 5,892.70
    9 11,405.87 60% 6,843.52
    10 6,708.66 60% 4,025.20
    11 28,047.20 60% 16,828.32
    12 26,704.10 60% 16,022.46

    Linear Regression
    Time Independent Dependent Estimation Square
    Estimate
    Period Variable Variable Error of Error
    Jan 2017 8,258.10 7,418.14 7,885 467.05 218,139
    Feb 2017 7,106.49 8,575.03 8,443 132.06 17,439
    Mar 2017 9,030.49 14,922.91 7,511 7411.82 54,935,089
    Apr 2017 6,703.91 8,291.72 8,638 346.24 119,881
    May 2017 6,044.19 6,650.42 8,957 2307.07 5,322,583
    Jun 2017 5,100.13 7,358.67 9,415 2056.07 4,227,437
    Jul 2017 5,331.43 7,644.85 9,303 1657.86 2,748,513
    Aug 2017 5,892.70 8,798.03 9,031 232.84 54,212
    Sep 2017 6,843.52 5,297.71 8,570 3272.63 10,710,102
    Oct 2017 4,025.20 8,537.63 9,935 1397.75 1,953,716
    Nov 2017 16,828.32 3,881.50 3,734 147.26 21,685
    Dec 2017 16,022.46 6,425.57 4,125 2301.01 5,294,658
    Linear Regression Line Range Name Cells
    y = a + bx a J5
    a= 11,884.97 b J6
    b= -0.48 Dependent Variable D5:D34
    Estimate E5:E34
    Estimation Error F5:F34
    Estimator Independent Variable C5:C34
    If x = 20,000 Square Of Error G5:G34
    x J10
    then y= 2,198.05 y J12

    16,000.00

    14,000.00

    12,000.00
    Dependent Variable

    10,000.00

    8,000.00

    6,000.00 y = -0.2031x + 9461.9

    4,000.00

    2,000.00

    0.00
    - 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 12,000.00 14,000.00 16,000.00 18,000.00
    Independent Variable

    Figure 1: Forecast Sales versus Actual Sales for 2017


    FORECASTING
    2018

    Actual Sales of Collections


    SN 2017 Percentage Target Sales for 2018
    1 7,418.14 60% 4,450.88
    2 8,575.03 60% 5,145.02
    3 14,922.91 60% 8,953.75
    4 8,291.72 60% 4,975.03
    5 6,650.42 60% 3,990.25
    6 7,358.67 60% 4,415.20
    7 7,644.85 60% 4,586.91
    8 8,798.03 60% 5,278.82
    9 5,297.71 60% 3,178.63
    10 8,537.63 60% 5,122.58
    11 3,881.50 60% 2,328.90
    12 6,425.57 60% 3,855.34

    Template for Linear Regression


    Time Independent Dependent Estimation Square
    Period Variable Variable Estimate Error of Error

    1 4,450.88 13,005.55 9,729 3276.35 10,734,445

    2 5,145.02 6,072.44 9,393 3320.56 11,026,137

    3 8,953.75 16,438.21 7,548 8889.95 79,031,199

    4 4,975.03 13,092.93 9,475 3617.60 13,086,995

    5 3,990.25 10,967.18 9,952 1014.87 1,029,963

    6 4,415.20 14,778.09 9,746 5031.60 25,317,037

    7 4,586.91 11,901.81 9,663 2238.49 5,010,837

    8 5,278.82 24,322.40 9,328 14994.20 224,826,116

    9 3,178.63 18,190.32 10,345 7844.90 61,542,506

    10 5,122.58 13,336.73 9,404 3932.86 15,467,376

    11 2,328.90 12,328.15 10,757 1571.17 2,468,581

    12 3,855.34 4,879.01 10,018 5138.64 26,405,643


    Linear Regression
    Line Range Name Cells
    y = a + bx a J5
    a = 3,775.58 b J6
    b= 0.07 Dependent Variable D5:D34
    Estimate E5:E34
    Estimation Error F5:F34
    Independent
    Estimator Variable C5:C34
    If x = 10,000 Square Of Error G5:G34
    X J10
    then y= 4,464.44 Y J12

    16,000.00

    14,000.00

    12,000.00
    Dependent Variable

    10,000.00
    y = 0.1275x + 6247.4
    8,000.00

    6,000.00

    4,000.00

    2,000.00

    0.00
    - 5,000.00 10,000.00 15,000.00 20,000.00 25,000.00 30,000.00
    Independent Variable

    Figure 2: Forecast Sales versus Actual Sales for 2018


    FORECASTING
    2019

    Actual Sales of Collections


    SN 2017 Percentage Target Sales for 2018
    13,005.55 60% 7,803.33
    1
    6,072.44 60% 3,643.46
    2
    16,438.21 60% 9,862.93
    3
    13,092.93 60% 7,855.76
    4
    10,967.18 60% 6,580.31
    5
    14,778.09 60% 8,866.85
    6
    11,901.81 60% 7,141.09
    7
    24,322.40 60% 14,593.44
    8
    18,190.32 60% 10,914.19
    9
    13,336.73 60% 8,002.04
    10
    12,328.15 60% 7,396.89
    11
    4,879.01 60% 2,927.41
    12

    Template for Linear Regression


    Time Independent Dependent Estimation Square
    Estimate
    Period Variable Variable Error of Error
    1 7,803.33 5,498.43 8,105 2607.03 6,796,606
    2 3,643.46 3,896.99 10,120 6223.28 38,729,268
    3 9,862.93 2,985.09 7,108 4122.81 16,997,587
    4 7,855.76 2,651.70 8,080 5428.37 29,467,166
    5 6,580.31 1,235.30 8,698 7462.53 55,689,292
    6 8,866.85 7,687.86 7,590 97.51 9,509
    7 7,141.09 3,109.61 8,426 5316.61 28,266,292
    8 14,593.44 3,800.94 4,817 1015.76 1,031,764
    9 10,914.19 10,178.37 6,599 3579.64 12,813,847
    10 8,002.04 7,567.94 8,009 441.28 194,725
    11 7,396.89 6,584.49 8,302 1717.83 2,950,932
    12 2,927.41 6,633.71 10,467 3833.38 14,694,834
    Linear Regression Line Range Name Cells
    y = a + bx a J5
    a= 7,380.67 b J6
    Dependent
    b= 0.11 Variable D5:D34
    Estimate E5:E34
    Estimation Error F5:F34
    Independent
    Estimator Variable C5:C34
    If x = 20,000 Square Of Error G5:G34
    x J10
    then y= 9,651.29 y J12

    16,000.00

    14,000.00

    12,000.00
    Dependent Variable

    10,000.00

    8,000.00

    6,000.00
    y = -0.447x + 10120
    4,000.00

    2,000.00

    0.00
    - 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 12,000.00
    Independent Variable

    Figure 3: Forecast Sales versus Actual Sales for 2019


    2017-2019 Comparison

    Row Labels Sum of Target Sales Sum of Actual Sales

    2017 97,187.00 93,802.18


    2018 56,281.31 159,312.82
    2019 95,588.00 61,830.43
    Grand Total 249,056.31 314,945.43

    180,000.00

    160,000.00

    140,000.00

    120,000.00

    100,000.00
    Sum of Target Sales

    80,000.00 Sum of Actual Sales

    60,000.00

    40,000.00

    20,000.00

    -
    2017 2018 2019

    Figure 4: 2017-2019 Comparison (Target Sales vs Actual Sales)


    Interpretation:

    The y-axis is the amount of sales (the dependent variable) the thing you’re
    interested in, is always on the y-axis) and the x-axis is the total target per
    year as you can see in the graph year 2017, the target sales is quite
    decreasing(see independent variable). Each blue dot represents one
    month’s data—how much it rise or fall the sales per month and how many
    sales you made that same month.
    Glancing the data, you probably notice that sales are decreasing on the month of
    November 2017. That’s interesting to know, but by how much? Know how much you’ll
    sell?

    Now imagine drawing a line through the chart above in the year 2017 one that runs
    roughly through the middle of all the data points. This line will help you to see with some
    data in the year 2017.

    The above example uses only one variable to predict the factor of interest — in this case
    rain to predict sales. Typically you start a regression analysis wanting to understand the
    impact of several independent variables. So you might include that but also data about a
    competitor’s promotion. ““You’re trying to get the line that fits best with your data.” While
    there can be dangers to trying to include too many variables in a regression analysis,
    skilled analysts can minimize those risks. And considering the impact of multiple variables
    at once is one of the biggest advantages of regression.

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