Probability Review Solutions

1. A family has three children. Using b to stand for boy and g to stand for
girl, and using ordered triples such as bbg, find the following.

a. draw a tree diagram to determine the sample space

b. write the event E that the family has exactly two boys
c. write the event F that the family has at least two boys
d. write the event G that the family has three boys
e. p(E)
f. p(F)
g. p(G)
h the probability that there are exactly two boys given that the first
child is a girl.
Solution:
a.

Reading from the beginning to the end of each limb, we have the
sample space of
{bbb, bbg, bgb, bgg, gbb, gbg, ggb, ggg}.
b. This is asking for the elements in the sample space that have exactly
two bs listed. These are {bbg, bgb, gbb}.
c. This is asking for the elements of the sample space that have twp or
more boys. In other words, this is asking for those elements that
have exactly two bs and those that have three bs. These are {gbb,
bgb, bbg, bbb}.
d. This is asking for the elements of the sample space that have three
boys. In other words, this is asking for those elements that have
three bs. This is {bbb}.
e. For this problem, we need to divide the number of things in the event
E (exactly two boys) by the number of things in the sample space to
find the probability the family will have exactly two boys. This will
3 total number of things in E
give us p (E ) = =
8 total number of things in the sample space
f. For this problem, we need to divide the number of things in the event
F (at least two boys) by the number of things in the sample space to
find the probability the family will have at least two boys. This will
4 total number of things in F
give us p (F ) = =
8 total number of things in the sample space
g. For this problem, we need to divide the number of things in the event
G (three boys) by the number of things in the sample space to find
the probability the family will have three boys. This will give us
1 total number of things in G
p (G ) = =
8 total number of things in the sample space
h. For this problem, we once again want to look at a tree diagram.
1
boy
2
1 boy
2 1 girl
boy 2
1
2 1 1
2 boy
2 girl
1 girl
2

1
boy
1 boy 2
1 2 1 girl
2
2
girl
1
1 2 boy
2 girl
1 girl
2
Since we are asked to determine the probability that there are
exactly two boys given that the first child is a girl, we need to only
look at the part of the tree diagram where the first child is a give.
 We then find all the branches off a first girl that have exactly two
boys (this is circled in red). To find the probability of this, we
multiply the probabilities of each piece as we work our way out
starting with the probability after the first girl. This gives us
1 1 1
⋅ =
2 2 4

2. Mendel found that snapdragons have no color dominance; a snapdragon

with one red gene and one white gene will have pink flowers. If a pure
red snapdragon is crossed with a pink snapdragon, find the following
probabilities.

a. a red offspring
b. a white offspring
c. a pink offspring
Solution:
The easiest way to do this problem is to use a Punnet square. The pure
red snapdragon will have two red genes (represented by R in the Punnet
square). The pink snapdragon will have one red (R) and one white
(represented by W in the Punnet square).
Red Snapdragon
R R
Snapdragon
Pink

R RR RR

W RW RW

a. A red offspring would need to have two red (R) genes. As we can see
2
there two offspring with two red genes. Thus p (red offspring ) = .
4
b. A white offspring would need to have two white (W) genes. As we can
see there no offspring with two white genes. Thus
0
p (white offspring ) = .
4
 c. A red offspring would need to have one red (R) and one white (W)
gene. As we can see there two offspring with one red (R) and one
2
white (W) gene. Thus p ( pink offspring ) = .
4

3. If a single card is drawn from a deck of 52 cards, find each of the

following probabilities:

a. a black card
b. a heart
c. a queen
d. a card below a 5 (count an ace as high)
e. a card above a 9 (count an ace as high)
f. a card below a 5 and above a 9 (count an ace as high)
g. a card is below a 5 or above a 9 (count an ace as high)
Solution:
a. To find the probability that the card will be a black card, we need to
first determine how many black cards there are and then divide that
number by the total number of cards (52). If you look at a deck you
will see that there are 26 cards which are black. Thus the probability
26 1
of a black card is = .
52 2
b. To find the probability that the card will be a heart, we need to
determine how many hearts are in the deck and then divide that
number by 52. If you look at a deck, you will see that there are 13
13 1
hearts. Thus the probability of a heart is = .
52 4
c. To find the probability that the card will be a queen, we need to
determine how many queens are in the deck and then divide that
number by 52. If you look at a deck, you will see that there are 4
4 1
queens. Thus the probability of a queen is = .
52 13
d. To find the probability that the card will be below a five, we need to
determine how many cards are below a five in the deck and then divide
that number by 52. This means that we are looking for all the 4s, 3s,
and 2s. If you look at a deck, you will see that there are 4 fours, 4
 threes, and 4 twos. Thus the probability of a card below a 5 is
12 3
= .
52 13
e. To find the probability that the card will be above a nine, we need to
determine how many cards are above a nine in the deck and then
divide that number by 52. This means that we are looking for all the
10s, jacks, queens, kings, and aces. If you look at a deck, you will see
that there are 4 tens, 4 jacks, 4 queens, 4 kings, and 4 aces. Thus the
20 5
probability of a card above a 9 is = .
52 13
f. To find the probability that the card will be below a five and above a
nine, we need to determine how many cards are below a five and above
a nine at the same time in the deck and then divide that number by
52. There are no cards that qualify as being both below a five and
above a nine at the same time. Thus the probability of a card below a
0
5 and above a 9 is = 0.
52
g. To find the probability that the card will be below a five or above a
nine, we need to determine how many cards are below a five or above a
nine at the same time in the deck and then divide that number by 52.
Since we see the word "or" in the statement, we can use one of our
probability rules p (E ∪ F ) = p (E ) + p (F ) − p (E ∩ F ) . If we let E be
the event of a card below a five and F be the even that a card is above
a 9, then we can use what we got for parts d, e, and f to answer this
12 20 0 32 8
question. This will give us + − = = .
52 52 52 52 13

4. Alex is taking two courses, algebra and U.S. history. Student records
indicate that the probability of passing algebra is 0.25; that of failing
U.S. history is 0.45; and that of passing at least one of the two courses is
0.80. Find the probability of each of the following.

a. Alex will pass history.

b. Alex will pass both courses.
c. Alex will fail both courses.
d. Alex will pass exactly one course.
Solution:
a. Alex passing history is the complement of Alex failing history. Thus
we can use what we know about the probability of an event and its
 complement to find the probability of Alex passing history. It will be
1 - 0.45 = 0.55.
b. The easiest way to figure this out is using the probability formula
p (E ∪ F ) = p (E ) + p (F ) − p (E ∩ F ) . If we let E be the event that
Alex passes history and F be the event that Alex passes algebra, then
we have 0.80 = 0.55 + 0.25 − p (E ∩ F ) . With a little simplification we
get 0.80 = 0.80 − p (E ∩ F ) . And we finally determine that
p (E ∩ F ) = 0 . In other words, the probability that Alex will pass
both courses is 0.
c. Alex failing both courses is the complement of Alex passing at least
one of the two courses. Thus we can use what we know about
complements to find the probability of Alex failing both courses. It
will be 1 - 0.80 = 0.20.
d. The probability that Alex will pass exactly one course is the
probability that Alex will pass only algebra or Alex will pass only
history. Since these two things are mutually exclusive (the
probability that Alex will pass both is 0), then we just need to add the
probabilities together to get 0.55 + 0.25 = 0.80.

Another way to calculate this is to use a table.

Across the top of this you would write in one column each for pass
history, fail history, and total. Along the left you would have one row
each for pass algebra, fail algebra, and total. You are told that the
probability of failing history is .45. This number would go in the total
row at the bottom of the fail history column. You are told that the
probability of passing algebra is .25. This number would go in the total
column at the end of the passing algebra row. You can now fill in the
other piece of the total column at the failing algebra row. Since there
are only two things that can happen when it comes to algebra, the two
totals must add up to 1. Thus at the end of the failing algebra row in
the total column would be 1-.25. Similarly, you can fill in the total row
at the bottom of the passing history column with 1-.45. Now the four
boxes in the table where the passing and failing history overlap with
passing and failing algebra cover all of the possibilities for what can
happen. Thus all those 4 probabilities added together add up to 1.
Each column must add up to the total at the bottom of the column and
each row must add up to the total at the right of each row. Once we
fill in one of the 4 pieces, we will be able to fill in the rest. In order
 to do that we use the information that the probability of passing at
least one of the two courses is .80. This number is the sum of the
following 3 blocks -- pass history and pass algebra, pass history and
fail algebra, pass algebra and fail history. In each of those cases you
pass at least one of the courses. This means that the only box not
covered is the fail history and fail algebra. This means that we can
figure out the probability of failing both courses by calculating 1-.80.
Once we have that we can fill in the rest of the boxes and answer the
questions.
pass history fail history total
pass algebra .25-.25 .45-.2 .25
fail algebra .75-.2 1-.8 1-.25
total 1-.45 .45 1

5. On the basis of his previous experience, the public librarian at Smallville

knows that the number of books checked out by a person visiting the
library has the following probabilities
Number of Books 0 1 2 3 4 5
Probability 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.05 0.15

Find the expected number of books checked out by a person visiting this
library.
Solution:
To find the expected value of the number of books checked out, we need
to find a "weighted average". In other words we need to take into
account the probability for each number of books to calculate the
average. We do this by multiplying the number of books by the
probability that that number will be checked out. We add each of these
products together to find the expected value. This gives us
( 0.05 ⋅ 0) + (0.15 ⋅ 1) + (0.25 ⋅ 2) + (0.35 ⋅ 3) + (0.05 ⋅ 4) + (0.15 ⋅ 5) = 2.65 .
Thus the expected number of books checked out by a person visiting this
library is 2.65.
6. A group of 600 people were surveyed about violence on television. Of
those women surveyed, 256 said there was too much violence, 45 said
that there was not too much violence, and 19 said they don’t know. Of
those men surveyed, 162 said there was too much violence, 95 said that
there was not too much violence, and 23 said they don’t know.

a. What is the probability that a person surveyed was a woman and

thought there was not too much violence on television?
b. What is the probability that a person thought there was too much
violence on television given that the person was a woman?
c. What is the probability that a person who was a man thought that
there was not too much violence on television?
Solution:
We want to organize the data into a table. This will make the information
easier to use.
Too Much Violence
Yes No Don’t Know Total
Men 162 95 23 280
Women 256 45 19 320
Total 418 140 42 600

a. For this problem we are looking for just how many people are in the
women row and also in the no columns. This number is 45. We then
take this number and divide it by the total number of people surveyed
45
to get the probability of = .075
600
b. The part written as "given that the person was a woman" tells us to
look only in the women row and use the total number of women as 320
as out total to divide by. In the women row there were 256 who
thought that there was too much violence. When we take 256 and
divide it by 320 we get the probability that a person though there was
too much violence given that the person was a women. This probability
256
is = .8 .
320
c. The part written as "who was a man" tells us to look only in the men
row and use the total number of men as 280 as our total to divide by.
In the men row there were 95 who thought that there was not too
much violence. When we take 95 and divide it by 280 we get the
probability that a person thought there was too much violence given
95
that the person was a man. This probability is = .3392857143 .
280