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 Predicting Outcome of Indian Premier League (IPL) Matches Using
Machine Learning

Rabindra Lamsal, Ayesha Choudhary

arXiv:1809.09813v4 [stat.AP] 25 Jun 2019

School of Computer and Systems Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi 110067
[email protected], [email protected]

ARTICLE HISTORY
Compiled June 26, 2019

ABSTRACT
Cricket, especially the Twenty20 format, has maximum uncertainty, where a single
over can completely change the momentum of the game. With millions of people
following the Indian Premier League (IPL), developing a model for predicting the
outcome of its matches is a real-world problem. A cricket match depends upon var-
ious factors, and in this work, the factors which significantly influence the outcome
of a Twenty20 cricket match are identified. Each players performance in the field is
considered to find out the overall weight (relative strength) of the team. A multi-
variate regression based solution is proposed to calculate points of each player in the
league and the overall weight of a team is computed based on the past performance
of the players who have appeared most for the team. Finally, a dataset was modeled
based on the identified seven factors which influence the outcome of an IPL match.
Six machine learning models were trained and used for predicting the outcome of
each 2018 IPL match, 15 minutes before the gameplay, immediately after the toss.
The prediction results are impressive. The problems with the dataset and how the
accuracy of the classifier can be improved further is discussed.

KEYWORDS
Cricket prediction; sports analytics; multivariate regression; neural networks

1. Introduction

With technology growing more and more advanced in the last few years, an in-depth
acquisition of data has become relatively easy. As a result, Machine Learning is be-
coming quite a trend in sports analytics because of the availability of live as well as
historical data [1–9]. Sports analytics is the process of collecting past matches data
and analyzing them to extract the essential knowledge out of it, with a hope that it
facilitates in effective decision making. Decision making may be anything including
which player to buy during an auction, which player to set on the field for tomorrow’s
match, or something more strategic task like, building the tactics for forthcoming
matches based on players’ previous performances.
Machine Learning can be used effectively over various occasions in sports, both on-
the-field and off-the-field. When it is about on-the-field, machine learning applies to
the analysis of a players fitness level, design of offensive tactics, or decide shot selection.
It is also used in predicting the performance of a player or a team, or the outcome of a
match. On the other hand, the off-the-field scenario concerns the business perspective
of the sport [10,11], which includes understanding sales pattern (tickets, merchandise)
and assigning prices accordingly. The main focus is the healthy growth in business
and profitability of the team owners and other stakeholders. On-the-field analytics
generally make use of supervised machine learning algorithms, example: (i) regression
for calculating the fitness of a player, (ii) classification for predicting an outcome of a
match; while off-the-field analytics concerns around performing sentiment analysis to
understand peoples opinion about a player or a team or a sport league. At present,
Twitter has become one of the primary sources of data for sentiment analysis.
Sport Lisboa e Benfica, one of Portugals most successful football clubs advancing
in the use of data modeling techniques while making decisions [12] is one real-world
example of the use of machine learning in sports science. The club monitors and
analyzes almost every aspect of a player, including their sleeping, eating, training
habits. Once raw player data is recorded, various models are designed to analyze the
data for optimizing match readiness and defining personalized practice schedules. With
the application of machine learning and predictive analysis, the facts coming out of
the devised models enable players to improve their performance continually. On the
other cards, with those facts at hand, manager/coach gets a better idea about which
player to be replaced, which player to be kept in the playing list and which player to
be kept in the bench.
Major League Baseball (MLB) has seen enormous growth in the arena of sports
analytics in the last few years [13,14]. Professional MLB teams collect tremendous
amount of ball-by-ball data and apply various machine learning approaches to get
clear insights into the game, which is usually not visible through human analysis.
Predicting the outcome of a match, classifying if a team will intentionally make a
player walk at bat or classifying non-fastball pitches according to pitch type, etc. are
some of the classification problems dealt using machine learning in baseball world [15].
Similarly, cricket has also been making use of sports analytics to perform prediction
of outcome of a match, while the gameplay is in progress or before the match has even
begun [16–19]. Even problem like predicting runs or wickets of a player for a match,
based on his/her past performance is an interesting problem to work on. Some real-
world tools which have been implemented in cricket include WASP (Winning and Score
Predictor) [20], a tool which predicts a score and possible outcome of a limited over
cricket match, i.e., One-day or Twenty20. Sky Sports New Zealand first introduced
this tool in 2012 during an ongoing Twenty20 match. Technology like Hawk-Eye [21–
23] which tracks the trajectory of a ball and visually displays the most statistically
significant path, has also been officially in use as the Umpire Decision Review System
since 2009. Similarly, other sports like tennis, badminton, snooker also make use of
this computer-assisted intelligent technology.

1.1. Machine Learning in Sports

Various machine learning algorithms have been applied and tested for their efficiency
in solving the problems in sports. The relation between machine learning and games
dates back to the initial days of artificial intelligence when Arthur Samuel, a pioneer
in the field of gaming and artificial intelligence studied machine learning approaches
using the game of checkers [24].
A study [25] was performed to predict the outcome (win, lose or draw) of football
matches played by a professional English Premier League (EPL) team, Tottenham
Hotspurs, based on matches that were played in the year between 1995 to 1997. It

2
was observed that Bayesian networks relatively outperformed other machine learning
algorithms which included MC4 - a decision tree learner, Naive Bayesian learner, Data-
driven Bayesian, and K-nearest neighbor. The prediction accuracy of the Bayesian nets
model was 59.21%.
Match outcome prediction and game-play analysis are a prevalent problem that is
tackled using machine learning. Another area where machine learning approaches are
being used is extracting highlights from an on-going match. A study was performed
to extract baseball match highlights on a set-top device [26]. The relative strength
of classification algorithms, namely Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gaussian Fit-
ting (GAU) and K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) was considered for ”excited speech”
classification, and finally, SVM was applied. Six baseball matches covering 7 hours
of game-play time was fed to the algorithm. 75% of the highlights extracted by the
algorithm were common with the highlights extracted manually by a human.
Just like in football, supervised machine learning algorithms have also been used in
predicting the outcome of baseball matches. A project [27] used two learning methods,
i.e., logistic classification and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict the result of
the baseball post-season series. Although ANN came up with very poor accuracies, the
accuracies out of the logistic model were satisfactory with training and test accuracies
of 73.6% and 62.6% respectively. Another project applied four machine learning algo-
rithms to understand career progression in Baseball [28]. The implemented algorithms
were Linear Regression (Ridge Model), Multi-Layer Perceptron Regression (Neural
Network), Random Forests Regression (Tree Bagging Model), Support Vector Regres-
sion (SVR). The dataset which was used to train these algorithms contained match
data of the first six seasons of players’ career. And the players’ value were predicted.
The prediction was near 60% for the batters, while for pitchers the accuracy was very
poor, i.e., something around 30-40%.

1.2. Machine Learning in Cricket

In cricket, to predict an outcome of a match, the primary task is to extract out the
essentials factors (features) which affect result of a match. Interesting works have been
done in the field of predicting outcome in cricket. The literature survey concluded that
the majority of the published works which predicted a result of a cricket match prior
were for the test or one-day international cricket format.
Bandulasiri [16] has analyzed the factors like home field advantage, winning the toss,
game plan (first batting or first fielding) and the effect of Duckworth Lewis method
[29] for one-day cricket format. Furthermore, Bailey and Clarke mention in their work
[17] that in one-day cricket format, home ground advantage, past performances, venue,
performance against the specific opposition, current form are statistically significant
in predicting total runs and predicting the outcome of a match. Similarly [18] discusses
modeling home-runs and non-home runs prediction algorithms and considers taking
runs, wickets, frequency of being all-out as historical features into their prediction
model. But, they have not leveraged bowlers features and have given more emphasis
to batsmen. Kaluarachchi and Aparna [19] have proposed a tool that predicts match
apriori, but player performance has not been considered into their model.

3
1.3. Indian Premier League

1.3.1. Introduction
Indian Premier League (IPL) is a professional cricket league based on Twenty20 format
and is governed by Board of Control for Cricket in India. The league happens every year
with participating teams name representing various cities of India. There are many
countries active in organizing Twenty20 cricket leagues. While most of the leagues
are being overhyped and team franchises are routinely losing money, IPL has stood
out as an exception [30]. As reported by espncricinfo, with Star Sports spending $2.5
billion for exclusive broadcasting rights, the latest season of IPL (2018, 11th) saw 29%
increment in the number of viewers including both the digital streaming media and
television. The 10th season had 130 million people streaming the league through their
digital devices and 410 million people watching directly on the TV [31]. The numbers
prove that IPL is a successful Twenty20 format based cricket league.

1.3.2. Machine Learning in Indian Premier League

Some interesting machine learning works have also been performed on data acquired
from Indian Premier League matches. In a study [32], the Naive Bayesian classifier was
used to classify the performance of all-rounder players (bowler plus batsman) into four
various non-overlapping categories, viz., a performer, a batting all-rounder, a bowling
all-rounder or an underperformer by being based on their strike rate and economy rate.
Step-wise multinomial logistic regression (SMLR) was used to extract the essential
predictors. When validated, the Naive Bayesian model was able to classify 66.7%
of the all-rounders correctly. The same authors later published a work in which an
Artificial Neural Network model was used to predict the performance of bowlers based
on their performance in the first three seasons of IPL [33]. When the predicted results
were validated with actual performance of the players in season four, the developed
ANN model had an accuracy of 71.43%.
Although not related to IPL, a study performed at University College London in
the area of predicting the outcome of a Twenty20 match [34] would be a healthy
addition as the literature work in the Twenty20 domain. The study made use of Naive
Bayes, Logistic Regression, Random Forests, Gradient Boosting algorithms to predict
the outcome of English County cricket matches. Two models were developed, each
was given input of two different sets of features. The team only related features were
input to the first model, while team and players related features were input to the
second model. The study was concluded with Naive Bayes outperforming all other
algorithms with the first model giving out average prediction accuracy of 62.4% and
second model giving average prediction accuracy of 63.9%, i.e., 64% average accuracy
with 2009-2014 data and 63.8% average accuracy with 2010-2014 data.

1.4. Organization of Paper

The paper is organized as follows: The proposed work is discussed in detail in various
subsections of section 2. Results are shown in section 3, and section 4 concludes the
paper.

4
2. The Proposed Work

The literature survey concluded that there was a need for a machine learning model
which could predict the outcome of an IPL match before the game begins. Among all
formats of cricket, Twenty20 format sees a lot of turnarounds in the momentum of
the game. An over can completely change a game. Hence, predicting an outcome for
a Twenty20 game is quite a challenging task. Besides, developing a prediction model
for a league which is wholly based on auction is another hurdle. IPL matches cannot
be predicted simply by making use of statistics over historical data solely. Because of
players going under auctions, the players are bound to change their teams; which is
why the ongoing performance of every player must be taken into consideration while
developing a prediction model.
In sports, most of the prediction job is done using regression or classification tasks,
both of which come under supervised learning. In simple terms, y = f(x) is a prediction
model which is learned by the learning algorithm from a set of dataset: D = ((X1 ,y1 ),
(X2 ,y2 ), (X3 ,y3 ), ... (Xn ,yn )). Based on the type of output (y) supervised learning
is divided further into two categories, viz., regression, and classification. In Regres-
sion, the output is a continuous value; however, classification deals with discrete kind
of output. For predicting continuous values, Linear Regression appeared to be quite
effective, and for classification problems like predicting the outcome of matches or
classifying players, learning algorithms like Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Neural
Networks, Random Forests were found being used in most of the previous studies.
In this work, the various factors that affect the outcome of a cricket match were
analyzed, and it was observed that home team, away team, venue, toss winner, toss
decision, home team weight, away team weight, influence the win probability of a
team. The proposed prediction model makes use of multivariate Regression to calculate
points of each player in the league and compute the overall strength of each team based
on the past performance of the players who have appeared most for the team.

2.1. The Prediction Model

2.1.1. Dataset
The official website of Indian Premier League [35] was the primary source of data for
this study. The data was scraped from the site and maintained in a Comma Separated
Values (CSV) format. The initial dataset had many features including date, season,
home team, away team, toss winner, man of the match, venue, umpires, referee, home
team score, away team score, powerplay score, overs details when team reached mile-
stone of multiple of 50 (i.e., 50 runs, 100 runs, 150runs), playing 11 players, winner
and won by details. In a single season, a team has to play with other teams in two
occasions, i.e., once as a home team and next time as an away team. For example,
once KKR plays with CSK in its home stadium (Eden Gardens) next time they play
against CSK in their home stadium (M Chinnaswamy Stadium). So, while making
the dataset, the concept of home team and away team was considered to prevent the
redundancy.
Indian Premier League has just been 11 years old, which is why only 634 matches
data were available after the pre-processing. This number is considerably less with
comparison to the data available relating to the test or ODI formats. Due to certain
difficulties with some ongoing team franchises, in some seasons the league has seen
the participation of new teams, and some teams have discontinued. Presence of those

5
inactive teams in the dataset was not really necessary, but if the matches data were
omitted where the inactive teams appeared, the chances were that the valuable knowl-
edge about the teams which were still active in the league would deteriorate. For better
understanding and to make the dataset look somehow cluttered-free, acronyms were
used for the teams. Table 1 lists the acronyms used in the dataset.
Table 1. Team names and their acronym.

Team Name Acronym

Chennai Super Kings CSK
Delhi Daredevils DD
Kings XI Punjab KXIP
Kolkata Knight Riders KKR
Mumbai Indians MI
Rajasthan Royals RR
Royal Challenger Bangalore RCB
Sunrisers Hyderabad SRH
Rising Pune Supergiant RPS*
Deccan Chargers DC*
Pune Warriors India PWI*
Gujrat Lions GL*
Kochi Tuskers Kerala KTK*
* Inactive teams as of 2018 AD.

2.1.2. Calculating points of a Player

There are various ways a player can be awarded points for their performance in the
field. The official website of IPL has a Player Points section where every player is
awarded points based on these 6 features: (i) number of wickets taken, (ii) number of
dot balls given, (iii) number of fours, (iv) number of sixes, (v) number of catches, and
(vi) number of stumpings. To find out how IPL management was assigning points to
each player based on these 6 features, a multivariate regression was used on the players’
points data. Freedman [36] has beautifully explained the mathematics behind the
Regression models. For this problem with six independent variables, the multivariate
regression model takes the following form:

y = β0 + β1X 1 + β2X 2 + β3X 3 + β4X 4 + β5X 5 + β6X 6 (1)

Where, y is points awarded to a player, β 0 is Intercept term, β 1 is per wicket

weight, β 2 is per dot ball weight, β 3 is per four weight, β 4 is per six weight, β 5 is per
catch weight, and β 6 is per stumping weight.

When regression analysis was done on the player’s point data, the following values
were obtained for the weights β n in equation 1:
β 0 = 0, β 1 = 3.5, β 2 = 1, β 3 = 2.5, β 4 = 3.5, β 5 = 2.5, β 6 = 2.5

2.1.3. Calculating Team weight

For a team, there can be as many as 25 players. This is a limit put on by IPL governing
council to the franchises. To find the average strength of a team, every player of the
team is first sorted in the descending order according to their number of appearances in
previous matches of the same season. Once players have been sorted, the top 11 players

6
are considered for calculating the weight of the team because these players have played
more games for the team and their performance influence the overall team strength.

P11 th ′
i=1 i player s
points
weight of a team = (2)
total appearance of the team in the ongoing season

Now two more features, viz., home-team-weight and away-team-weight were also
added to the previously designed dataset for all matches. Equation 2 was used recur-
sively to calculate the team weight based on the players who appeared the most for
the team. Figuring team weight for all 634 matches was a tedious task. So, for exam-
ple purpose, the final results of each season were considered, and the team weight for
each team was calculated accordingly, and the same score was used for all the matches
in that particular season. For better performance of the classifier, the team weight
must be calculated immediately after the end of each match. This way, the real-time
performance of each team and the newly computed weight can be used in predicting
upcoming games.

2.1.4. Feature Selection

In this study, Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) algorithm was used as a feature
selection method.

Algorithm 1: Recursive Feature Elimination

1 for for each sample iteration do
2 Split data into train and test set.
3 Train the model on training set using all features.
4 Predict on the test set.
5 Calculate features ranking.
6 for for each subset of features Si , where i = 1 to S do
7 Keep the Si most important features.
8 Train the model on training set using Si features.
9 Predict on the test set.
10 end
11 end
12 Calculate performance of the model over Si using held-back samples.
13 Identify appropriate number of features.
14 Identify final list of features to keep in the model.
15 Train the model using the optimal set of features on original training set.

As the name suggests, RFE recursively removes an unessential feature from a set
of features, re-builds the model using the remaining features and recalculates the
accuracy of the model. The process goes on for all the features in the dataset. Once
completed, RFE comes up with top k number of features which influence the target
variable (independent variable) at a level of extent. Sometimes, ranking the features
and using the top k features for building a model might result in wrong conclusions [37].
To prevent this from happening, the dataset was resampled, and RFE was operated
in the subsets. The results were the same set of features obtained initially; hence, the
initial set of features obtained from RFE did not seem to be biased. Using the RFE

7
 model, the number of features was reduced to 7. Thus obtained features which highly
influenced the target variable were the home team, the away team, the venue, the toss
winner, toss decision, and the respective teams’ weight. Table 2 shows a portion of
dataset with seven features.
Table 2. Final set of features considered for designing the prediction model.

home team away team toss winner toss decision stadium w1 w2

CSK RR RR field Dr DY Patil Sports Academy 101.75 123.65625
KKR DC DC bat Eden Gardens 95.76923077 97.03571429
DD KXIP DD bat Feroz Shah Kotla 105.9285714 114.9333333
RCB MI MI field M Chinnaswamy Stadium 90.89285714 102.2142857

w1 represents home-team-weight, and w2 represents away-team-weight

2.1.5. Use of Dummy Variables

There were categorical variables in the dataset. The categorical variable should be
converted to dummy variables. Dummy variables are a simple way of introducing
information contained in a variable, which is not measured in a continuous fashion
[38], e.g., gender, marital status, etc. There are some constraints to be considered while
using dummy variables. Any one of the columns (exactly one) should be removed from
a set of dummy variables to prevent falling into the dummy variable trap [38]. Since
there were five categorical columns in the dataset, each one of them was converted to
a set of k dummy variables and the k-1 set of the newly generated dummy variables
were used as a representative of the respective categorical variable.

3. Results

A study carried out by Kohavi [39] indicates that for model selection (selecting a good
classifier from a set of classifiers), the best method is 10-fold stratified Cross-Validation
(CV). This CV approach splits the whole dataset into k=10 equal partitions (folds)
and uses a single fold as a testing set and union of other folds as a training set. The
creation of folds is random. This process repeats for every fold. That means each fold
will be testing set for once. Finally, the average accuracy is calculated out of the sample
accuracy from each iteration.
Six commonly used classification-based machine learning algorithms [40], viz., Naive
Bayes[41], Extreme Gradient Boosting [42], Support Vector Machine [43], Logistic Re-
gression [44,45], Random Forests [46], and Multilayer perceptron (MLP) [47] were
trained on the IPL dataset. The dataset contained all the match data since the begin-
ning of Indian Premier League till 2017. The trained models were used to predict the
outcome of each 2018 IPL match, 15 minutes before the gameplay, immediately after
the toss. Table 3 shows the performance of all classifiers. Among the six classification
models, the MLP classifier outperformed all other classifiers by a notable margin in
terms of prediction accuracy and weighted mean of precision-recall (F1 Score). The
MLP classifier correctly predicted outcome of 43 matches of 2018 season, with classi-
fication accuracy of 71.66% and F1 Score of 0.72. The precision, recall and F1 Score
metrics for the MLP classifier is shown in Table 4. Based on the classification accu-
racy, the MLP classifier was followed by Logistic Regression, Random Forests and SVM
classifiers. However, Naive Bayes and Extreme Gradient Boosting classifiers performed
poorly in predicting the outcomes of 2018 IPL matches.

8
 Table 5 lists the hyper-parameters of the MLP classifier which were considered
experimentally. The MLP classifier was a three-hidden-layered artificial neural network
with ten hidden units in each layer. The selection for the number of layers and the
number of hidden units in each layer was made experimentally. The activation function
in the hidden layer was Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU). Predicting the winner of a cricket
match between a home team and an away team is a binary classification problem;
hence, a sigmoid function was used as the activation function in the output layer.
Table 3. Performance of the classifiers on 2018 IPL matches
Classifier Correct Predictions (out of 60 matches) Accuracy
Naive Bayes 30 matches 50%
Extreme Gradient Boosting 33 matches 55%
Support Vector Machine 38 matches 63.33%
Logistic Regression 41 matches 68.33%
Random Forests 41 matches 68.33%
Multilayer perceptron 43 matches 71.66%

Table 4. Precision, Recall and F1 Score of

the Multilayer perceptron classifier

Precision Recall F1 Score

0 0.62 0.59 0.60
1 0.77 0.79 0.78
average 0.71 0.72 0.72

Table 5. Hyper-parameters of the Multilayer perceptron

Hyper-parameter number/value/function/type
Number of hidden layers 3
Number of hidden units in Layer 1 10
Number of hidden units in Layer 2 10
Number of hidden units in Layer 3 10
Number of units in output layer 1
Activation for hidden layers ReLU function
Activation for the output layer Sigmoid function
Optimizer Adam [48]
Regularization L2
Initial learning rate 0.001

4. Conclusion

In this study, the various factors that influence the outcome of an Indian Premier
League matches were identified. The seven factors which significantly influence the
result of an IPL match include the home team, the away team, the toss winner, toss
decision, the stadium, and the respective teams’ weight. A multivariate regression
based model was formulated to calculate the points earned by each player based on
their past performances which include (i) number of wickets taken, (ii) number of
dot balls given, (iii) number of fours hit, (iv) number of sixes hit, (v) number of
catches, and (vi) number of stumpings. The points awarded to each player was used
to compute the relative strength of each team. Various classification-based machine
learning algorithms were trained on the IPL dataset designed for this study. The
dataset contained all the match data since the beginning of Indian Premier League

9
till 2017. The trained models were used to predict the outcome of each 2018 IPL
match, 15 minutes before the game-play, immediately after the toss. The Multilayer
perceptron classifier outperformed other classifiers with correctly predicting 43 out of
60, 2018 Indian Premier League matches. The accuracy of the MLP classifier would
have improved further if the team weight was calculated immediately after the end
of each match. Because this is the only way, the classifier gets fed with real-time
performance of the participating teams. The Twenty20 format of cricket carries a lot
of randomness, because a single over can completely change the ongoing pace of the
game. Indian Premier League is still at infantry stage, it is just a decade old league and
has way less number of matches compared to test and one-day international formats.
Hence, designing a machine learning model for predicting the match outcome of an
auction-based Twenty20 format premier league with an accuracy of 72.66% and F1
score of 0.72 is highly satisfactory at this stage.

Acknowledgements

We want to show our gratefulness to Intel for providing us with a computing cluster
for the period of this study.

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