Infosys (INFTEC) : Large Deal Win, Client Matrix Improves
Infosys (INFTEC) : Large Deal Win, Client Matrix Improves
Infosys (INFTEC) : Large Deal Win, Client Matrix Improves
Rating matrix
Rating : Buy Infosys (INFTEC) | 1073
Target : | 1290
Target Period : 12 months
Potential Upside : 20%
Large deal win, client matrix improves…
What’s Changed? • Infosys reported weak Q1FY17 results as dollar revenue growth was
Target Changed from | 1,400 to | 1,290 below our estimates. US$ revenues grew 2.2% QoQ to $2,501
EPS FY17E Changed from | 67.0 to | 64.7
million, below our 4.0% growth and $2,543.8 million estimate. In
EPS FY18E Changed from | 74.0 to | 71.8
constant currency, revenue growth was 1.7% QoQ, significantly
Rating Unchanged
lower than our estimate of 3.8%
Quarterly Performance • EBIT margins at 24.1% declined ~140 bps QoQ and were above our
Q1FY17 Q1FY16 YoY (%) Q4FY16 QoQ (%) estimate of 23.5% as wage hike and currency headwind were offset
Revenue 16,782 14,354 16.9 16,550 1.4 by better operating efficiency
EBIT 4,047 3,447 17.4 4,220 (4.1) • Reported PAT of | 3,436 crore was above our | 3,418 crore estimate
EBIT (%) 24.1 24.0 10 bps 25.5 -138 bps Revenue miss on account of slower spending in consulting, PI
PAT 3,437 3,030 13.4 3,597 (4.4)
Infosys reported subdued revenue growth of 2.2% sequentially in dollar
terms and 1.7% sequentially in constant currency. The revenue growth
Key Financials was well below our expectation of 4% sequential growth in dollar terms.
| Crore FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E
The subdued revenue growth was on account of a slowdown in
Net Sales 53,319 62,441 70,022 78,825
discretionary spending in Consulting and Packing Implementation (PI) and
EBITDA 14,901 17,078 19,241 21,336
Net Profit 12,329 13,491 14,793 16,402
slower-than-expected ramp up in a few of the deals won previously.
EPS (|) 53.9 59.0 64.7 71.8 Revises guidance downward following weak Q1FY17 results…
Following weak Q1FY17 results, Infosys revised its guidance for FY17E
Valuation summary downward. The company has lowered its constant currency revenue
FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E growth guidance downward to 10.5-12.5% from 11.5-13.5%.The constant
P/E 19.9 18.2 16.6 14.9 currency guidance implies CQGR of 3-3.2% over the remaining three
Target P/E 23.9 21.9 19.9 18.0 quarters. The above constant currency growth also translates into dollar
EV / EBITDA 14.3 12.2 10.5 9.2 term revenue growth of 10-11.5% in FY17E. We highlight that Q2FY17E
P/BV 4.5 4.0 3.6 3.2 would be crucial for Infosys to meet its guidance as H2FY17E is
RoNW (%) 22.5 21.9 21.4 21.3
seasonally weak for revenues.
RoCE (%) 31.4 30.3 30.1 29.9
EBIT margin performance beats our expectation…
Stock data Infosys’ Q1FY17 EBIT margins declined 140 bps QoQ to 24.1% in Q1FY17.
Particular Amount
We highlight that Infosys beat our EBIT margin estimates of 23.5% as the
Market Capitalization (| Crore) 245,144.3 company managed to partly offset the impact of salary increase (down
Total Debt | 0 crore 140 bps) and visa cost (down 80 bps) through improvement in utilisation
Cash and Investments 34,468.0 and lower subcontracting cost (up 80 bps). With better operational
EV (| Crore) 210,676.3 efficiency lever, Infosys is well on track to manage its EBIT margin band at
52 week H/L 1278 / 987 24-26% in the medium term.
Equity capital | 1144 crore
Improvement in large deal win & client matrix lends comfort…
Face value |5
We highlight that Infosys continues to witness an improvement in large
deal win and Client matrix. After witnessing large deal wins worth US$2.8
Price performance (%)
billion in FY16, Infosys maintained strong traction by securing large deal
1M 3M 6M 12M
wins with TCV of US$809 million (mn) in Q1FY17. Secondly, the company
TCS 0.6 9.1 7.4 (3.5)
added three clients taking the count to 17 in the $100 million+ category.
Infosys (2.5) 7.6 18.5 18.1
Wipro (2.5) 0.9 (1.5) (2.6)
These factors lend us comfort that Q1FY17 results could be a quarterly
HCL Tech (10.5) (11.2) (11.4) (23.9) blip and its revenue growth is expected to improve, going ahead.
Maintain BUY with target price of | 1290…
Research Analysts Though Infosys’ reported a weak set of Q1FY17 results, the improvement
Deepak Purswani, CFA in large deals and client matrix lends us comfort that it could be a
[email protected] quarterly blip and revenue growth may improve, going ahead. We
anticipate Infosys’ revenues to grow at a CAGR of 12.4% with average
Tushar Wavhal EBIT margin of 25.1% in FY16-18E. Furthermore, a weak Q1FY17 is
[email protected] already reflected in its share price. Hence, we maintain our BUY
recommendation on Infosys with a revised target price of | 1290 (18x
FY18E EPS). We have lowered our target multiple to 18x (19x earlier) to
reflect uncertain demand environment post Brexit.
Infosys' $ revenue growth of 2.2% sequentially was well below our expectation of
Revenue 16,782 17,011 14,354 16.9 16,550 1.4 4% on account of a slowdown in Consulting & Packaging Implementation
Employee expenses 10,281 10,429 8,810 16.7 9,843 4.4
Key Metrics
Closing employees 197,050 190,000 179,523 9.8 194,044 1.5
LTM attrition-standalone (%) 15.8 14.0 16.7 -93 bps 13.6 223 bps
Utilisation - IT Services (%) 80.5 81.0 80.2 30 bps 80.1 40 bps
Average $/| 67.1 66.9 63.6 5.5 67.7 -0.9
Change in estimates
FY17E FY18E
(| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments
Revenue 70,290 70,022 -0.4 79,730 78,825 -1.1
EBIT 17,947 17,735 -1.2 20,310 19,601 -3.5
EBIT Margin (%) 25.5 25.3 -22 bps 25.5 24.9 -68 bps
PAT 15,306 14,793 -3.4 16,905 16,402 -3.0
EPS (|) 67.0 64.7 -3.4 74.0 71.8 -3.0 We have fine-tuned our estimates to reflect weak Q1FY17 results
Assumptions
Current Earlier Comments
FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E
Closing employees 176,187 194,044 210,818 225,628 210,818 225,628
We believe an improvement in utilisation rate will act as a key layer for managing
Utilisation - IT Services (% 76.4 80.9 83.1 84.3 83.1 84.3 the EBIT margin of 24-26% in the medium-term
Average $/| 54.5 65.7 67.0 67.5 66.0 67.0
Exhibit 1: Dollar revenues may grow at 10.9% CAGR in FY16-18E vs. 9.5% CAGR in FY11-16
14000 30.0
25.8
12000 25.0
10000
20.0
8000 15.8
$ billion
10451
11678
2000
4804
6041
6994
7398
8249
2133
2201
2218
2159
8711
2256
2392
2407
2446
9501
2501
0 0.0
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY15
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY16E
Q1
FY17E
FY18E
Dollar revenue Growth, YoY
Exhibit 2: Though Infosys has grown slower than industry average in past six of previous seven
years, FY17E could be different
35
25.8
27
20.0
18.7 19.0
19 16.0 17.0 15.8 16.5 13.0 12.5
11.6 13.0
11.5
10.2 10.0 11.0
%
11 9.0 8.0
5.8 7.0
5.5 5.6
3.0
3
-5 -4.9
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY17E
700
555 558 558 574
600 520 526 532 529 529 535 542
448 466
500
399
366
400
x
300
200
100
0
FY11 FY12 FY13 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY15 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY16E Q1
35
32 30.4
29.5 29.0
29
26.7
25.8 26.1 25.7 25.9
%
23
20
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY15
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY16E
Q1
FY17E
FY18E
EBIT
25
22
20.1 20.4
19.5
18.7 18.9 18.9
19 17.2
17.0 16.7
16.3 15.8
%
15.4 15.0
16
13.4 13.8 13.6
13
10
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY15
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY16E
Q1
LTM attrition - standalone
70.7
70
65
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY15
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY16E
Q1
FY17E
FY18E
Utilisation - IT Services (ex-trainees)
1800
1500
1200
900
600
300
0
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Price 26 22 18 14 10
Exhibit 8: Valuation
Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE
(| cr) (%) (|) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)
FY15 53,319 6.4 53.9 15.8 19.9 14.3 22.5 31.4
FY16 62,441 17.1 59.0 9.4 18.2 12.2 21.9 30.3
FY17E 70,022 12.1 64.7 9.7 16.6 10.5 21.4 30.1
FY18E 78,825 12.6 71.8 10.9 14.9 9.2 21.3 29.9
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
1,200 70.0
60.0
1,000
50.0
(|)
800
(%)
40.0
600
30.0
400 20.0
200 10.0
0 0.0
Jul-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 May-16 Jul-16
Key events
Date Event
Apr-11 The company exceeds its annual guidance; guides for 18-20% in FY12
Apr-12 Infosys names SD Shibulal as new Chief Executive Officer till 2015
Sep-12 Infosys considers buying Lodestone for $350 million to boost its consulting service offering
Apr-13 Company misses Q4 sales estimates and provides lower revenue guidance (6-10%) compared to Nasscom average of 12-14%
Jun-13 Narayana Murthy appointed Executive Chairman of the company
Jul-13 The company reports better-than-expected dollar revenue growth and operating margin
Oct-13 Infosys posts better-than-expected growth for second consecutive quarter. Raises guidance to 8-10%
Mar-14 Infosys provides weak outlook for Q4FY14E, which could impact H1FY15E
Apr-14 Infosys guides 7-9% YoY dollar revenue growth for FY15E, below Nasscom guidance of 13-15%. Q4FY14 revenue declines 0.4%
Jun-14 Infosys appoints Dr Vishal Sikka as the successor to the current CEO, Mr Shibulal, for a period of five years. Earlier he worked with SAP for 12 years
Oct-14 Infosys reports a stellar Q2FY15 earnings under the leadership of Dr Sikka. It also announces a 1:1 bonus issue for equity shareholders
Nov-14 Infosys announces December 2 as record date for allotment of bonus shares
Apr-15 Infosys reports weak Q4FY15 earnings led by energy and telecom weakness. The management guided for 6.2-8.2% revenue growth in US$ terms for FY16E (10-12%
Infosys reports strong Q1FY16 earnings led by volumes and were above market expectations. The management maintained its 10-12% constant currency growth
Jul-15 guidance but raised its dollar revenue growth guidance to 7.2-9.2% for FY16E
Infosys reports strong Q2FY16 earnings led by volumes, realisaiton and were above market expectations. The management maintained its 10-12% constant currency
Oct-15 growth guidance but lowered its dollar revenue growth guidance to 6.4%-8.4% (7.2-9.2%) for FY16E
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Recent Activity
Buys Sells
Investor name Value Shares Investor name Value Shares
Shibulal (Shreyas) 240.3m 14.7m Gopalakrishnan (Sudha) -996.3m -54.2m
Shibulal (Shruti) 251.7m 13.7m William Blair Investment Management, LLC -135.5m -8.1m
Fidelity Management & Research Company 50.4m 3.2m The Vanguard Group, Inc. -66.9m -4.0m
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd. 51.2m 3.1m Genesis Investment Management, LLP -56.6m -3.6m
Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) 27.5m 1.6m ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. -36.9m -2.3m
Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;
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