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Procedia Economics and Finance 30 (2015) 155 – 163

3rd Economics & Finance Conference, Rome, Italy, April 14-17, 2015 and 4th Economics &
Finance Conference, London, UK, August 25-28, 2015

Does firms’ pecking order vary during large deficits and

surpluses? An empirical study on emerging economies

Vandana Bhamaa,*, P. K. Jaina, Surendra S. Yadava

a
Indian Insitute of Technology, Delhi, India

Abstract

The present study examines firms (of India and China) with normal as well as large deficits and surpluses. Using an extended
model of pecking order theory, the study indicates that Indian and Chinese firms frequently issue debt when have normal
deficits. Surprisingly during normal deficiencies, Chinese firms retire debt more frequently vis-a-vis Indian firms due to more
reliance on short-term debt. The pecking order results are less supportive for Indian firms with large deficits due to high debt
ratios that constrain firms not to issue more debt. In marked contrast, the results are robust for Chinese firms. Firms continue
to raise substantial debt even in the situation of high debt ratios. In a surplus situation (with normal surpluses), Indian firms
utilise surpluses as well as new debt proceeds to a partial extent to payback existing debt obligations to reduce their debt
levels. In contrast, the results are excellent in favour of Chinese firms. During large surplus conditions, the results are
extremely poor for Indian firms but weak for Chinese firms. Indian firms retain surpluses and new debt issues for future
investment needs. In marked contrast, Chinese firms retain up to 40 per cent of their funds.
© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of IISES-International Institute for Social and Economics Sciences.
Peer-review under responsibility of IISES-International Institute for Social and Economics Sciences.
Keywords: Pecking Order Theory; Financing; Deficit; Surplus; Debt; Equity

1. Introduction

Firms face a situation of either deficiency of funds or availability of surpluses depending upon their internal
funds and capital investment needs. When the internal funds are not sufficient to meet the existing investment

* Corresponding author: Vandana Bhama, Tel. +91-9910359955.

E-mail address:[email protected]

2212-5671 © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of IISES-International Institute for Social and Economics Sciences.
doi:10.1016/S2212-5671(15)01279-4
156 Vandana Bhama et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 30 (2015) 155 – 163

requirements, a firm is said to be in a situation of deficit. In an opposite situation, when a firm has excess amount
of internal funds over the existing investment needs, firms tend to have the availability of surplus funds. Mostly,
firms prefer internal to external funds due to information asymmetric issues (Myers, 1984; Myers and Majluf,
1984). There are no flotation costs or information asymmetry for internal funds.
Pecking order theory states that during deficiency, firms prefer debt issue to equity until the debt limits are
exhausted. When the existing limits are over and above the target limits, equity is raised as a last resort. In a
reverse situation, when firms have excess flow of surplus funds, the preference is given to retire debt than equity
buyback (Myers, 2001). Hence, the whole theory of pecking order revolves around debt issue and redemption. In
this paper, we have focused on the pecking order of firms with normal as well large deficits and surpluses.
Using an empirical model, Shyam-Sunder and Myers (1999) examine the debt financing patterns over a
period of time. Accordingly, the regression of debt financing on firm’s deficiency of funds should yield a slope
coefficient close to unity. Critically commenting on this model, Chirinko and Singha (2000) argue that the
simple pecking order test generates misleading inferences when evaluating the plausible patterns of external
financing. The coefficient value of pecking order test can be significantly smaller than one. The rationale is that
if deficits are considerably larger in amount, firms might not have the potentials or are constrained to issue more
debt. Thus, remainder of the financing emanates from equity issues. These constraints are painfully high in the
situation of high leverage ratios. For this reason, the existing empirical model (Shyam-Sunder and Myers, 1999)
provides distorted evidences for firms with larger deficits. Generally, firms with larger deficits have high debt
equity ratios compared to firms with normal deficits. The reason is that larger deficit firms use higher amount of
long-term debt.
In view of the above, the first objective of the paper is to test the pecking order when firms have different
levels of deficits. For the purpose, the paper tests the pecking order in two sets of deficit situations: 1) firms with
normal deficits, and 2) firms with large deficits. We hypothesize that pecking order test yields coefficient value
closer to unity for firms with normal deficits due to existing low debt equity ratio vis-a-vis firms with large
deficits. But expect a lower coefficient value for firms with large deficits, as these firms are likely to attempt to
revert back to their target levels.
The second objective broadly focuses on firms with different levels of surpluses. Logically, firms should use
their surpluses to payback existing debt obligations in order to reduce their debt levels. However, there are other
possibilities that firms either can utilise entire surplus funds or could use partial funds to redeem debt, or may
retain most/part of their funds for future needs. In general, the debt equity ratios tend to decline as firms have
more surpluses. This is attributable to the fact that firms either have more internal funds or their current
investment needs are reasonably low. Hence, the usage of debt will be exhaustively less in these circumstances.
Following the above rationale, we distinguish surplus firms into two groups: 1) firms with normal surpluses, and
2) firms with large surpluses. We hypothesize that firms with even normal surpluses tend to redeem debt more
frequently to revert back their target level of debt. But expect a lower coefficient value for firms with large
surpluses due to existing low debt equity ratios.
Extending the basic pecking order model, the paper focuses firstly on the deficit and surplus firms separately
unlike the work of most studies in literature focusing on one set of firms. Further, we give emphasis on deficits
with debt issues and surpluses with debt redemption. We also analyse the frequency of debt redemptions during
deficit situation and debt issues in a surplus situation. These additional aspects would be useful to interpret the
results in a better way.
According to the best knowledge of authors, this kind of work has not been carried out, so far, in Indian and
Chinese context. The paper is a modest attempt to explore the impact of deficits and surpluses quantum on the
issue and redemption of debt. The rest of the paper has been organized as follows. Next section describes the
literature review. Data and methodology is described in third section. Empirical evidences are discussed in the
fourth Section. And the last section enumerates concluding observations.

2. Literature review

2.1. Overview of Indian and Chinese economy

India and China are one of the fastest growing economies during last three decades. In India, corporate
 Vandana Bhama et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 30 (2015) 155 – 163 157

financing is primarily covered by banks. Thus, bank loans serve as the most important source. The share of bond
market has virtually been less during last many years. Many studies indicate debt (specifically bank borrowings)
to be a major source of financing for Indian firms (Saggar, 2005; Jain and Yadav, 2005; Rastogi et al., 2006;
Ganguli, 2013). Mostly Indian firms prefer short-term debt to long-term debt (Jain et al., 2012). The share of
equity issues is relatively less for filling up deficiencies. In the context of pecking order theory, Mahakud (2006)
observes no support for this theory. This is due to the coefficient that either contradicts the theory or is
insignificant (Dutta, 2013). The results of pecking order are better for Indian firms without any debt capacity
constraints (Komera and Lukose, 2014).
Despite incredible success in promoting growth, China is considered to be poorly developed. China does not
have sophisticated and mature capital market. Banks play a dominant role than equity market (Allen et al., 2014).
Most of the debt originates from commercial banks due to underdeveloped corporate bond market in China.
These firms have greater reliance on debt financing than equity financing. Larger Chinese firms tend to use more
long-term debt (Bhabra et al., 2008). In contrast, Ni and Yu, 2008 observe that firms with moderate debt ratios
do not follow the pecking order; the finding is in contravention to that of Myers (1984). However, Yue (2011)
supports their results more for short-term debt.

2.2. The pecking order theory

Shyam-Sunder and Myers (1999) provided statistical model to assess the financing hierarchy through
regression equations. They indicate pecking order to be an excellent descriptor of firms’ financing behaviour.
Lemmon and Zender (2010) also provide their results favouring pecking order theory. In contrast, Frank and
Goyal (2003) and Fama and French (2005) note that firms like to finance their deficits mainly with equity issues.
Ni and Yu (2008) and Seifert and Gonence (2009) find little support for this theory. Leary and Robert (2010)
observe their results against pecking order. Firms like to issue equity when they are least constrained (Dong et
al., 2012).
Al et al. (2011) opine that firms prefer to issue debt to fill up deficits than moving towards target leverage. In
similar view, Jong et al. (2011) indicate that firms with high leverage continue to issue more debt. In a surplus
situation, firms buyback equity instead of redeeming debt. Many studies indicate that the high deficits are on
account of significantly high debt ratios. Denis and Mckeon (2012) are also of the view that deficits are covered
predominantly with more debt even though the existing debt ratios are well above the target limits. In marked
contrast, Calomiris et al. (1995) indicate that firms accumulate cash funds for precautionary reasons to avoid the
high cost of debt and financial distress.
Analyzing the impact of this model separately for deficit and surplus firms, Jong et al. (2010) indicate their
results to be more supportive in a surplus situation. The pecking order provides a reasonable fit for firms with
small and medium deficits, and an extremely poor fit for firms with large deficits.

3. Data and methodology

The paper examines Indian and Chinese firms listed at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) 500 and Shanghai
Stock exchange (SSE) 380 Index firms (respectively) for the period 2003-2012. For the purpose, Bloomberg
database has been used to collect the relevant data (secondary). Following the standard practice, we exclude
banking and financial firms. Further, firms with missing values of any variable from their cash flow statement
and balance sheet in ten years period (2003-2012) are also excluded from the study. This reduces our sample size
to 165 non-financial firms for India and 185 for China.
Initially, the firms are segregated into deficit and surplus firms using a conceptual framework (mentioned
subsequently in this section). The deficit and surplus values are scaled by book value of assets. Using these
scaled values, we used median for further segregation of firms into deficits and surplus groups. The categorised
deficits are named as firms with normal deficits (up to 2 nd quartile/median) and large deficits (above median).
Likewise, the surplus firms are named as firms with normal surpluses and large surpluses.

3.1. Conceptual framework

158 Vandana Bhama et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 30 (2015) 155 – 163

Initially, the firms are categorised into deficit and surplus firms using a framework mentioned below.

SURt = Ct - It (1)

Where,

SURt = Positive or negative surplus in year t;

Ct = Net cash from operating activities (adjusted) of firm i in year t; (i.e. Earnings after taxes + Depreciation +
Amortization + Other non-cash adjustments + Change in non-cash current assets + Change in operating
liabilities + Change in short-term borrowings – Dividends paid)

It = Net capital investments of firm i in year t; (i.e. Purchase of fixed assets – Sale of fixed assets + Purchase of
long-term investments – Sale of long-term investments).

Firms are classified into deficit and surplus firms based on the negative or positive value of above mentioned
framework. The negative value indicates deficit, while positive value would be taken as surplus. We exclude
firm-year with SUR=0.

3.2. Testing the pecking order model

Deficit situation

Under the situation of deficiency, the theory suggests to issue debt first. Based on this rationale, we have
considered the following model:

DIit= α + βpoDEFit+ εit (2)

Where,
DIit is the gross debt issued by firm i in year t, βpo is the pecking order coefficient of deficit firms, DEFit is the
actual deficit (negative surplus) of firm i in year t, ε it is the error term.

Surplus situation

To estimate firm’s propensity to redeem debt from available surplus funds, we have formulated the following
model:

DRit= α + βpoSURit+ εit (3)

Where,

DRit is the debt redemption by firm i in year t, βpo is the pecking order coefficient of surplus firms, SURit is
the actual surplus (positive surplus) of firm i in year t, ε it is the error term.

3.3. Extension of pecking order model

The previous regression equations analyse results only in the context of debt issue and redemption. However,
we extend our focus on debt redemption during deficit and debt issue in a surplus situation. The reason is that
debt issues are huge in both situations. Similarly, the redemptions are substantial, specifically, for Chinese firms.
Hence, we formulate new equations to understand the reason behind raising and retiring excessive debt.

Deficit situation
 Vandana Bhama et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 30 (2015) 155 – 163 159

In view of the above, we calculate total requirement of funds (deficit + redemption of debt) during deficiency
situation. This equation would provide better insight of issuing excessive debt. For the purpose, we have
formulated the following model:

DIit= α + βpoTFRit+ εit (4)

Where,

DIit is the gross debt issued by firm i in year t, βpo is the pecking order coefficient of deficit firms, TFRit is the
total funds required ( deficit + debt redemption) in firm i in year t, ε it is the error term.
In comparison to Eq. (2), the coefficient value of Eq. (4) will decline if a firm redeems debt using new debt
issues.

Surplus situation

In Eq. (3), surpluses are regressed on debt redemption. Here, the results are primarily based on the availability
of surpluses and issue of new debt. For the purpose, we have formulated the following model:

DRit= α + βpoSDFit+ εit (5)

Where,

DRit is the debt redemption by firm i in year t, βpo is the pecking order coefficient of surplus firms, SDF it is
the availability of surplus and debt funds (surplus + issue of new debt) of firm i in year t, εit is the error term.
To find out the regression results, we use ordinary least square (OLS) regression technique. Independent t-test
has also been used to find out the mean differences of debt ratios of Indian and Chinese firms.

4. Results

Table 1 presents the mean values of debt equity ratios of firms with normal and large deficits. The relevant
figures clearly indicate that the usage of long-term debt is more across firms with large deficits (0.81 and 0.26
for India and China) compared to firms with normal deficits (0.57 and 0.16 for India and China). The ratio of
long-term debt obligations is significantly higher for Indian firms than Chinese firms. This indicates that the
usage of long-term debt is substantially more among Indian firms vis-a-vis Chinese firms. As far as short-term
debt is concerned, most of the financing in China appears to come via short-term debt sources. Indian firms also
rely to a marked extent on short-term debt along with long-term debt. The total debt to equity ratio is more for
firms with large deficits than normal deficits (1.77 and 1.32 for India and China).

Table 1.Difference of means of debt ratios of Indian and Chinese deficit firms.
Firms with normal deficits Firms with large deficits
India China t-test India China t-test
16.168*** -15.786***
LTD/E 0.57 0.16 (0.00) 0.81 0.26 (0.00)
-0.385 2.060**
STD/E 0.8 0.81 (0.70) 0.96 1.06 (0.04)
8.054*** -7.295***
TD/E 1.37 0.97 (0.00) 1.77 1.32 (0.00)
Note: *** and ** indicate significance level at 1 and 5 per cent.

Table 2 empirically analyses pecking order of firms in both situations of deficits. The results indicate that
Indian and Chinese firms frequently issue debt during normal deficiency situation (coefficient value being 0.996
and 1.444 for India and China). The pecking order results are robust when firms have normal deficits. When we
160 Vandana Bhama et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 30 (2015) 155 – 163

check the impact of total funding requirements on debt issues, the value declines to 0.75 and 0.89 for Indian and
Chinese firms. This reveals that Indian firms during normal deficiencies redeem debt up to 25 per cent from new
debt proceeds. In marked contrast, Chinese firms pay back debt up 40 to per cent (that is substantial). The reason
is that they have heavy reliance on short-term debt sources; obviously, Chinese firms are to retire debt more
frequently.

Table 2. Pecking order test of Indian and Chinese firms with normal and large deficits.

Firms with normal deficits

India China
DI DI DI DI
13.294*** 5.993** 30.234*** 1.577
Constant
(0.00) (0.04) (0.00) (0.19)
0.996*** 1.444***
βpoDEF
(0.00) (0.00)
0.750*** 0.890***
βpoTFR
(0.00) (0.00)
R square 0.332 0.555 0.138 0.9
Observations 428 428 604 604
Firms with large deficits
32.886*** 17.162** 8.444 -12.448***
Constant
(0.00) (0.02) (0.21) (0.00)
0.689*** 1.688***
βpoDEF
(0.00) (0.00)
0.634*** 0.894***
βpoTFR
(0.00) (0.00)
R square 0.461 0.601 0.493 0.891
Observations 417 417 607 607
Note: The present table analyses results for firms with normal and large deficits. The values of deficits are scaled by book
value of assets. Further, firms are divided using median. Initially, we regress deficits (DEF) on debt issues (DI). Then total
funding requirements (TFR) are regressed on DI. We use ordinary least square regression (OLS) to have the coefficient values.
*** and ** indicate significance level at 1 and 5 per cent.

Further analysing our results for firms in a situation of large deficiencies, the pecking order coefficient of
Indian firms is relatively weak (0.69) in comparison to firms with normal deficiencies. These firms also appear
to retire existing debt. This might be on account of high debt ratios that constrained these firms to issue less debt.
Therefore, the redemptions are also less. The results do not support the opinion of Jong et al. (2011) and Denis
and Mckeon (2012) that firms continue to issue more debt even if the existing debt ratios are high.
In case of Chinese firms with large deficiencies, the pecking order results continue to be robust with a
coefficient value of 1.69. Here, the results favour the observations made by Jong et al. (2011) and Denis and
Mckeon (2012). Firms continue to raise substantial debt even in the situation of large deficiencies with high debt
ratios. Likewise, firms with normal deficits, utilise excessive funds to redeem short-term debt obligations at a
fast pace to revert back to their target debt levels.
The findings related to the debt ratios of firms with normal and large surpluses are exhibited in Table 3. The
results indicate that there are no significant differences in the debt ratios of firms with normal and large surpluses
for both economies (except for marginally higher amount of short-term debt in surplus situations). However,
there are significant differences in the mean debt ratios of Indian and Chinese firms. For Indian firms with both
types of surpluses, a considerable portion of financing emanates through long-term debt (0.48 and 0.34); the
major source is the short-term debt (0.77 and 0.98). In contrast, Chinese firms with normal and large surpluses
predominantly use short-term debt vis-a-vis long-term debt (0.13 and 0.10). The total debt to equity is more than
1 for Indian surplus firms as well as Chinese firms.
 Vandana Bhama et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 30 (2015) 155 – 163 161

Table 3. Difference of means of debt ratios of Indian and Chinese surplus firms.

Firms with normal surpluses Firms with large surpluses

India China t-test India China t-test
-9.951*** 7.481***
LTD/E 0.48 0.13 (0.00) 0.34 0.1 (0.00)
0.286 -0.473***
STD/E 0.77 0.78 (0.775) 0.98 1.01 (0.00)
-5.177*** 2.955***
TD/E 1.25 0.91 (0.00) 1.32 1.11 (0.00)
Note: *** indicates significance level at 1 per cent.

Table 4. Pecking order test of Indian and Chinese firms with normal and large surpluses.

Firms with normal surpluses

India China
DR DR DR DR
13.004*** 2.500** 22.438*** -2.276*
Constant (0.00) (0.20) (0.00) (0.08)
0.332*** 1.427
βpoSUR (0.00) (0.00)
0.514*** 0.976***
βpoSDF (0.00) (0.00)
R square 0.079 0.404 0.073 0.896
Observations 376 376 302 302

Firms with large surpluses

12.744*** 6.412 18.941*** -5.007*
Constant (0.01) (0.16) (0.00) (0.07)
0.173*** 0.378 ***
βpoSUR (0.00) (0.00)
0.196*** 0.597***
βpoSDF (0.00) (0.00)
R square 0.088 0.163 0.09 0.645
Observations 365 365 304 304
Note: The present table analyses results for firms with normal and large surpluses. The values of surpluses are scaled by book
value of assets. Further, firms are divided using median. Initially, we regress surpluses (SUR) on debt redemptions (DR). Then
surpluses and new debt issues (SDF) are regressed on DR. We use ordinary least square regression (OLS) to have the
coefficient values. ***,** and * indicate significance level at 1, 5 and 10 per cent.

The empirical evidences related to the pecking order of firms with normal and large surpluses are shown in
Table 4. The results signify that pecking order coefficient is very weak (0.33) for Indian firms having normal
amount of surpluses. The results improve partially (0.51) when surpluses and new debt issues are regressed on
debt redemptions. This indicates that Indian firms do not utilise more surpluses and new debt proceeds to
payback existing debt.
In contrast, the results are excellent and are in favour of pecking order of Chinese firms with normal
surpluses. Firms appear to utilise their entire surpluses as well as new debt proceeds to retire debt (coefficient
value 0.976). Here, the results of Chinese firms support our hypothesis that coefficient is stronger for firms with
normal surpluses.
For firms having large surpluses, the results are extremely poor for Indian firms with a coefficient value of
0.19 but weak for Chinese firms with a value of 0.60. This brings out the fact that Indian firm with excessive
surpluses do not retire debt. Despite the surpluses, new debts are retained for future investment needs. In marked
contrast, Chinese firms retain 40 per cent of their funds for future expansion and the rest is used to redeem debt
162 Vandana Bhama et al. / Procedia Economics and Finance 30 (2015) 155 – 163

5. Concluding observations

The present study focuses on firms with normal as well as large deficits and surpluses. Using an extended
model of pecking order theory, we find that Indian and Chinese firms frequently issue debt during normal
deficiency situation. The pecking order results are robust when firms have normal deficits. Due to heavy reliance
on short-term debt, Chinese firms are to retire debt more frequently when the deficiencies are of normal amount.
During large deficiencies, the results are less supportive for Indian firms to issue more debt. These firms retire
negligible amount of debt on account of high debt ratios that constrained these firms not to issue huge debt. In
marked contrast, the pecking order results are robust for Chinese firms with large deficiencies. These firms
continue to raise substantial debt even in the situation of large deficiencies with high debt ratios.
Further, in the situation of normal surpluses, Indian firms utilise surpluses and new debt proceeds partially to
payback existing debt obligations to reduce their existing debt levels. Whereas, Chinese firms utilise their entire
surpluses as well as new debt proceeds to retire existing debt. During large amount of surpluses availability, the
results are extremely poor for Indian firms but weak for Chinese firms. Indian firms with excessive surpluses do
not retire debt. Rather, the surpluses and new debt proceeds are retained for future investment needs. In marked
contrast, Chinese firms retain up to 40 per cent of their funds for future and the rest is used to redeem debt.

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