Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Soft Computing Techniques: D. K. Chaturvedi, Sinha Anand Premdayal, Ashish Chandiok
Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Soft Computing Techniques: D. K. Chaturvedi, Sinha Anand Premdayal, Ashish Chandiok
Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Soft Computing Techniques: D. K. Chaturvedi, Sinha Anand Premdayal, Ashish Chandiok
Abstract
Electric load forecasting is essential for developing a power supply strategy to improve the reliability of the
ac power line data network and provide optimal load scheduling for developing countries where the demand
is increased with high growth rate. In this paper, a short-term load forecasting realized by a generalized neu-
ron–wavelet method is proposed. The proposed method consists of wavelet transform and soft computing
technique. The wavelet transform splits up load time series into coarse and detail components to be the fea-
tures for soft computing techniques using Generalized Neurons Network (GNN). The soft computing tech-
niques forecast each component separately. The modified GNN performs better than the traditional GNN. At
the end all forecasted components is summed up to produce final forecasting load.
Keywords: Wavelet Transform, Short Term Load Forecasting, Soft Computing Techniques
The kalman filter is considered as the optimal solution and current load data as input and output respectively.
to many data prediction and trend matching. The filter is The ANN learns from experience and generalizes from
constructed as a mean square minimization which re- previous examples to new ones. It is able to forecast
quires the estimation of the covariance matrix. The role more efficiently the load as the load pattern are non lin-
of the filter is to extract the features from the signal and ear and ANN is capable to catch trends more accurately
ignore the rest part. As load data are highly non linear than conventional methods.
and non stationary, it is difficult to estimate the covari- 2) Rule Based Expert Systems
ance matrix accurately [18]. An expert system is a logical program implemented on
2) Box Jenkins Method computer, to act as a knowledge expert. This means that
This model is called as autoregressive integrated mov- program has an ability to reason, explain and have its
ing average model. The Box Jenkins model can be used knowledge base improved as more information becomes
to represent the process as stationary or non stationary. A available to it. The load-forecast model can be built us-
stationary process is one whose statistical properties are ing the knowledge about the load forecast domain from
same over time, which means that they fluctuate over an expert in the field. The knowledge engineer extracts
fixed mean value. On other hand non stationary time this knowledge from the load domain. This knowledge is
series have changes in levels, trends or seasonal behavior. represented as facts and rules using the first predicate
In Box Jenkins model the current observation is weigh- logic to represent the facts and IF-THEN production
ted average of the previous observation plus an error rules. Some of the rules do not change over time, some
term. The portion of the model involving observation is changes very slowly; while others change continuously
known as autoregressive part of the model and error term and hence are to be updated from time to time [20].
is known as moving average term. A major obstacle here 3) Fuzzy Systems
is its slow performance [19]. Fuzzy sets are good in specialization, fuzzy sets are
3) Regression Model able to represent and manipulate electrical load pattern
The regression method is widely used statistical tech- which possesses non-statistical uncertainty. Fuzzy sets
nique for load forecasting. This model forms a relation- are a generalization of conventional set theory that was
ship between load consumptions done in past hour as a introduced as a new way to represent vagueness in the
linear combination to estimate the current load. A large data with the help of linguistic variable. It introduces
data is required to obtain correct results, but it requires vagueness (with the aim of reducing complexity) by
large computation time. eliminating the sharp boundary between the members of
4) Spectral Expansion Technique the class from nonmembers [21,22].
This method is based on Fourier series. The load data These approaches are based on specific problems and
is considered as a periodic signal. Periodic signal can be may represent randomness in convergence or even can
represented as harmonic summation of sinusoids. In the diverge. The above mentioned approaches use either reg-
same way electrical load signal is represented as summa- ression, frequency component or mean component or the
tion of sinusoids with different frequency. The drawback peak component to predict the load. The prediction of the
of this method is that electrical load is not perfect peri- load depends upon both time and frequency component
odic. It is a non stationary and non linear signal with which varies dynamically. In this paper, an attempt is
abrupt variations caused due to weather changes. This made to predict electrical load that combines the above
phenomenon results in the variation of high frequency mentioned features using generalized neurons and wave-
component which may not be represented as periodic let.
spectrum. This method is not suitable and also requires
complex equation and large computation time. 3. Elements of Wavelet Analysis
2.2. Soft Computing Approach Wavelet analysis is a refinement of Fourier analysis [9–
15,23–29] which has been used for prediction of time
Soft computing is based on approximate models working series of oil, meteorological pollution, wind speed, rain-
on approximate reasoning and functional approximation. fall etc. [28,29]. In this section some important vaults
The basic objective of this method is to exploit the tol- relevant to our work have been described. The underly-
erance for imprecision, uncertainty and partial truth to ing mathematical structure for wavelet bases of a func-
achieve tractability, robustness, low solution cost and tion space is a multi-scale decomposition of a signal,
best results for real time problems. known as multi-resolution or multi-scale analysis. It is
1) Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) called the heart of wavelet analysis. Let L2(R) be the
An artificial neural network is an efficient information space of all signals with finite energy. A family {Vj} of
processing system to perform non-linear modeling and subspaces of L2(R) is called a multi resolution analysis of
adaptation. It is based on training the system with past this space if
1) intersection of all Vj, j = 1, 2, 3, ...... be non-empty, It is quite clear that in the higher case the scaled, trans-
that is V j lated and normalized versions of are denoted by
j
4. Neuro Theory of Generalized Neuron type generalized neuron in the forward pass, as in the
Model feed-forward neural network, it is compared with the
desired output to find the error. Using back-propagation
algorithm the summation type GN is trained to minimize
The following steps are involved in the training of a the error. In this step, the output of the single flexible
summation type generalized neuron as shown in Figure 2. summation type generalized neuron is compared with the
desired output to get error for the ith set of inputs:
4.1. Forward Calculations
Error E i (Y i O i ) (12)
Step 1: The output of the 1 part of the summation type Then, the sum-squared error for convergence of all the
generalized neuron is patterns is
1 E p 0.5 E i 2 (13)
O (9)
1 e s*s _ net A multiplication factor of 0.5 has been taken to sim-
plify the calculations.
where s _ net Wi X i X o Step 5: Reverse pass for modifying the connection
Step 2: The output of the part of the summation type strength.
generalized neuron is 1) Weight associated with the 1 and 2 part of the
2 summation type Generalized Neuron is:
O e p* pi _ net (10)
W (k ) W (k 1) W (14)
where pi _ net Wi X i * X o
where W k (O O ) X i W (k 1)
Step 3: The output of the summation type generalized
neuron can be written as and k (Y i O i )
O pk O *(1 W ) O *W (11)
2) Weights associated with the inputs of the 1 part
of the summation type Generalized Neuron are:
4.2. Reverse Calculation
Wi (k ) Wi (k 1) Wi (15)
Step 4: After calculating the output of the summation where Wi j Xi Wi (k 1)
s_bias
and j kW (1 O ) *O
3) Weights associated with the input of the part of
the summation type generalized Neuron are:
Input, Xi Wi (k ) Wi (k 1) Wi (16)
Output, Opk where Wi j Xi Wi (k 1)
The electric load data have been collected for 120 hours
from Gujarat system and normalized them in the range
0–1. The Daubechies wavelet Db8 is used for decompo-
sition and the wavelet coefficients d1–d3 and a3 have
been calculated. The trend of coefficients has been used
for GN training and predicting the wavelet coefficients
for future loads. So wavelet is used to extract the feature
coefficients from data and then GN is implemented to
Figure 3. Wavelet decomposition of hour load data into predict the trend of the wavelet coefficient. The results of
wavelet coefficient. GN and actual load have been compared and shown in
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