(B) Two categories of PROBABILITY

The difference between empirical and theoretical probability is an important part of our ability to
apply probability to a real world set of data. Give two to three examples speculative of
professions where probability could be used. Explain your answer

The difference between empirical, means observation or experience and theoretical probability or
speculative are as clear as night and day. Empirical probability is the data that has been proven
through trial and error such as the statics on the accidents that involve driving while under the
influence. Even the proven data for deaths that are smoking related. The theoretical probability is
like guessing and taking a chance you are right much like playing a game of cards you are taking
that chance you have the better hand. Insurance policies are made possible by empirical
probability. We know the amount of accidents, and we know the amount of times something
happens without error.

Based on that, it can be calculated what the chance is of a certain event. (professional) Gambling
is about theoretical probability. One can assume that all the chips, cards, tables or whatever are
completely fair (or even calculate the unfairness, based on the method of shuffling), so one can
calculate the odds of a certain set of cards coming up, before they ever have.

Dangerous medical procedures can also have empirical probability playing as a factor. There is
always a chance that someone dies under the knife, or that someone cures on their own. Based on
those odds, a doctor could advise for or against certain procedures. Those odds are based on
other patients who have gone through the same thing.

(A) Part 2
When we tossed two dice simultaneously, the possible outcomes is as
E2 1 2 3 4 5 6 Shown

DIE1/D
I

1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)

2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)

3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)

4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)

5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)

6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6

[ PART 3 ]
(A)

Diagram below shows the probability and the possible

Outcome to get the sum of the dots on both turned-up faces.

Sum of the Probability

dots On both
turned up Possible outcomes P (x)
faces (x)

2 (1,1) 1/36
 3 (1,2),(2,1) 1/18

4 (1,3),(2,2),(3,1) 1/12

5 (1,4),(2,3),(4,1),(3,2) 1/9

6 (5,1),(4,2),(3,3),(2,4),

(1,5) 5/36

7 (6,1),(5,2),(4,3),(3,4),

(2,5),(1,6) 6/36

8 (6,2),(5,3),(4,4),(3,5),

(2,6) 5/36

9 (6,3),(5,4),(4,5),(3,6) 1/9

10 (6,4),(4,6),(5,5) 1/12

11 (6,5),(5,6) 1/18

12 (6,6) 1/36

(B) Based on the diagram

A ={The two numbers are not the same} ={(1,2),(1,3),

(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),

(3,1),(3,2),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,5),(4,6),

(5,1), (5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,6),(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5)}

B = {The product of the two numbers is greater than 36}

=ø

P = Both number are prime

P = {(2,2),(2,3),(2,5),(3,3),(3,5),(5,3),(5,5)}

Q = Difference of 2 number is odd

Q = {(1,2),(1,4),(1,6),(2,1),(3,4),(3,6),(4,1),(4,3),(4,5),(5,4),

(5,6),(6,1),(6,3),(6,5)}

C = {Both numbers are prime number or the difference

between two numbers is odd}

C = {P U Q}

C = {(1,2),(1,4),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,5),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),

(3,6),(4,1),(4,3),(4,5),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),

(6,3),(6,5)}

R = The sum of 2 numbers are even

D = {The sum of the two numbers are even and both }

D = {P ∩ R}

Part 4 (a) An activity has been conducted by tossing two dice simultaneously 50

times. The frequency (f) of the sum of all dots on both turned-up faces

has been recorded. The value of mean, variance and

standard deviation of the data has been calculated.

Sum of the two numbers

(x)
Frequency(f) fx fx²

2 2 4 8

3 5 15 45

4 5 20 80

5 1 5 25

6 4 24 144

7 8 56 392
 8 8 64 512

9 5 45 405

10 7 70 700

11 3 33 363

12 2 24 288

Total 50 360 2962

Mean = 360÷50

= 7.2

Varience = 2962÷50-7.2²

= 7.4

(B) When the number of tossed of the two dice simultaneously is increase to

100 times, the value of mean is also change.

(C)Another activity same as (A) has been conducted by tossing two dice
simultaneously 100 times.

Sum of the two Frequency fx fx²

numbers (x) (f)
 2 2 4 8
3 6 18 54
4 10 40 160
5 9 45 144
6 16 96 576
7 17 119 833
8 12 96 768
9 11 99 891
10 13 130 1300
11 2 22 242
12 2 24 288

Total 100 693 5264

Mean = 693÷100
= 6.93
Variance = 5264÷100-6.93²
= 4.6151

Therefore, the prediction that has been made in (B) is true.

The mean, variance, and standard deviation is change
although the number of tossed of the dice was increase until
100 times because when the number of tossed change the
frequency also change.

[ PART 5 ]
(A)Based on the diagram, the actual mean, the variance and the standard

deviation of the sum of all dots on the turned-up faces by using the

formulae given was determined.

Mean = ∑ xP(x)
Variance = ∑ x² P(x) – (mean)²

Sum of the
two Frequency
numbers (x) (f) fx fx²

2 1 2 4
3 2 6 18
4 3 12 48
5 4 20 100
6 5 30 180
7 6 42 294
8 5 40 320
9 4 36 324
10 3 30 300
11 2 22 242
12 1 12 144

Total 36 252 1974

Maen = 252÷36
= 7
Varience = 1974÷36-7²
= 5.83
Standard Deviation = √5.83
= 2.415

(B) The mean, variance and standard deviation obtained in

Part 4 and Part 5 is not same because Part 4 was the

Empirical Probability and Part 5 was the Theoretical

Probability. For example, the empirical probability of

rolling a 7 is 4/25 = 16%. But the theoretical probability of

rolling a 7 is 6/36 = 1/6 = 16.7%. Table below show the

comparison between Mean, Variance, and Standard

Deviation.

Part 4
n=50 n=100 Part 5
Mean 7.2 6.93 7
Variance 7.4 4.6151 5.83
Standard 2.72 2.148 2.415
deviation

(C)The range of mean of the sum of all dots on the turned- up faces as n changes is 2≤mean≤12.
This is because as the number of toss, n, increases, the mean will get closer to 7. 7 is the
theoretical mean.

FURTHER EXPLORATION
Common intuition suggests that if a fair coin is tossed many times,
Then roughly half of the time it will turn up heads, and the other half it will turn up tails.

Furthermore, the more often the coin is tossed, the more likely it should be that the ratio of the
number of heads to the number of tails will approach unity. Modern probability provides a
formal version of this intuitive idea, known as the law of large
numbers. This law is remarkable because it is nowhere assumed in the foundations of probability
theory, but instead emerges out of
these foundations as a theorem. Since it links theoretically derived
probabilities to their actual frequency of occurrence in the real world,
the law of large numbers is considered as a pillar in the history of
statistical theory.

It is in the different forms of convergence of random variables that

separates the weak and the strong law of large numbers

It follows from LLN that if an event of probability is observed repeatedly during independent

experiments, the ratio of the observed

frequency of that event to the total number of repetitions converges

towards.

Putting this in terms of random variables and LLN we have

are independent Bernoulli random variables taking values 1 with

probability type and 0 with probability 1-p. E(Yi) =p for all and it follows
from LLN that
converges top almost surely.
 [ ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ]

I would like to express my gratitude and thanks to my teacher, Mrs

Wong for her wonderful guidance for me to be able to complete
this project work. Next, is to my parents for their continuous support to me
throughout this experiment. Special thanks to my friends for their help, and
to all those who contributed directly or indirectly towards the completion of
this project work.
Throughout this project, I acquired many valuable skills, and hope
that in the years to come, those skills will be put to good use.