Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 241 views

    Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in India PDF

    Uploaded by

    Deepesh Fal Dessai
    There is a complex relationship between unemployment and inflation that differs across economies. In many countries, unemployment and inflation tend to move inversely, as shown by the Phillips curve. However, studies have found the Phillips curve does not apply in India due to supply shocks and economic reforms disrupting the relationship. While India's inflation and unemployment are currently high, economists disagree on whether the conditions meet the definition of stagflation. Stagflation arises due to supply constraints that simultaneously increase inflation and slow growth, raising unemployment.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in India PDF

    Uploaded by

    Deepesh Fal Dessai
    241 views5 pages
    There is a complex relationship between unemployment and inflation that differs across economies. In many countries, unemployment and inflation tend to move inversely, as shown by the Phillips curve. However, studies have found the Phillips curve does not apply in India due to supply shocks and economic reforms disrupting the relationship. While India's inflation and unemployment are currently high, economists disagree on whether the conditions meet the definition of stagflation. Stagflation arises due to supply constraints that simultaneously increase inflation and slow growth, raising unemployment.

    Original Title

    70687489-Relationship-Between-Inflation-and-Unemployment-in-India.pdf

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    There is a complex relationship between unemployment and inflation that differs across economies. In many countries, unemployment and inflation tend to move inversely, as shown by the Phillips curve. However, studies have found the Phillips curve does not apply in India due to supply shocks and economic reforms disrupting the relationship. While India's inflation and unemployment are currently high, economists disagree on whether the conditions meet the definition of stagflation. Stagflation arises due to supply constraints that simultaneously increase inflation and slow growth, raising unemployment.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    241 views5 pages

    Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in India PDF

    Uploaded by

    Deepesh Fal Dessai
    There is a complex relationship between unemployment and inflation that differs across economies. In many countries, unemployment and inflation tend to move inversely, as shown by the Phillips curve. However, studies have found the Phillips curve does not apply in India due to supply shocks and economic reforms disrupting the relationship. While India's inflation and unemployment are currently high, economists disagree on whether the conditions meet the definition of stagflation. Stagflation arises due to supply constraints that simultaneously increase inflation and slow growth, raising unemployment.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 5

    Economic and Social Environment

    Q. There is a strong relationship between unemployment and inflation. India's situation is different.
    Discuss.

    A.
    Unemployment Rate
    The labor force is defined as the number of people employed plus the number unemployed but seeking
    work. The unemployment level is defined as the labor force minus the number of people currently
    employed. The unemployment rate is defined as the level of unemployment divided by the labor force.

    Inflation Rate Definition


    Inflation refers to a general rise in prices measured against a standard level of purchasing power.
    Previously the term was used to refer to an increase in the money supply, which is now referred to as
    expansionary monetary policy or monetary inflation. Inflation is measured by comparing two sets of
    goods at two points in time, and computing the increase in cost not reflected by an increase in quality.
    The most well known are the CPI which measures consumer prices, and the GDP deflator, which
    measures inflation in the whole of the domestic economy.

    Inflation and unemployment


    Inflation and unemployment go hand in hand. For every country, maintaining a low unemployment rate
    is the main objective. It is usually believed that inflation and unemployment are inversely proportional.
    There are many economists, who hold the opinion that low rate of unemployment together with low
    inflation rate may be a source of concern. Both low inflation rate and low unemployment rate, may be
    hypothetical. In real practice, this rarely happens. If a particular country has full employment, it can be
    said to have minimum rate of unemployment. If a nation maintains a minimum rate of unemployment in
    a condition when inflation rate is stable, it is said to follow the natural rate of unemployment. In other
    words, the natural rate of unemployment is the minimum rate of unemployment, which can be
    sustained.

    The Philips Curve


    The Philips Curve, named after William Philips suggested the relationship between inflation and
    unemployment. The Philips curve shows how inflation and unemployment are related. He suggested
    that if rate of inflation is high, rate of unemployment is low. On the other hand, if the rate of inflation is
    low, unemployment rate is high.

    If rate of inflation increases suddenly, it temporarily reduces, the rate of increase in the wages.
    Consequently, unemployment rate decreases. If the workers are able to cope with the increase in
    inflation, unemployment rate is also less. However, when they do realize that in order to compensate
    for the increase in price of commodities, the wages ought to be increased, unemployment may rise to a
    Economic and Social Environment

    considerable extent. This increase in the demand of wages, has a tendency to reverse the
    unemployment
    mployment curve to some extent (unemployment rises). If the rate of inflation is very high, it does
    not mean that, there will be a permanent decrease in the rate of unemployment. As a rule, rate of
    inflation and unemployment adjust themselves to attain the equilibrium state, which is known as the
    natural rate of unemployment state, effortlessly.

    Friedman-Phelps interpreted Phillips Curve with the following conclusions

    The trade-off is short-run.


    Different Phillips curves exist for different inflation rates
    Changes in inflation expectations shift the short
    short-run Phillips curve
    “Stabilization” policy increases the inflation rate and variability.

    The changes in govt policies had an impact the Phillips curve, an example below illustrates this
    Economic and Social Environment

    Unemployment
    If the Govt. INCREASES the benefits they pay to the If the Govt. DECREASES the benefits they pay to
    unemployed/underemployed in general this the unemployed/underemployed in general this
    produces a higher level of FRICTIONAL produces a lower level of FRICTIONAL
    unemployment. People tend to stay unemployed unemployment. People tend to stay unemployed
    for longer periods of time because the for shorter periods of time because the
    replacement income they receive from the govt. is replacement income they receive from the govt. is
    closer to their lost income…In other words, the much LESS then their original income…In other
    incentive to look for a Job is diminished and the words, the incentive to look for a job is INCREASES
    tendency to stay unemployed increases.. and the tendency to stay unemployed
    The LONG RUN PHILLIPS CURVE SHIFTS TO THE DECREASES...
    RIGHT The LONG RUN PHILLIPS CURVE SHIFTS TO THE
    LEFT

    Some economic studies suggests that the Phillips curve is nonexistent in India. This study finds that
    supply shocks, namely droughts and oil crises, and the liberalization-policy shock of the early 1990s are
    the main reasons for the absence of the Phillips curve in India

    Inflation and Unemployment rates of Major economies

    Inflation and Unemployment in India


    Economic and Social Environment

    Stagflation
    Stagflation is an economic situation where the growth rate slows down, unemployment levels remain
    steadily high & inflation also stays high. Stagflation, a concept which did not gain acceptance till the
    1960s, is described as a situation in the economy where the growth rate slows down, the level of
    unemployment remains steadily high and yet the inflation or price level remains high at the same time.
    At the first instance, high inflatio
    inflation
    n and unemployment or slower growth seem like opposites and
    mutually exclusive.

    What causes stagflation?


    The major reasons for stagflation, whenever it has occurred in history, have been been-supply shocks or
    shortages due to unforeseen reasons which push up p prices
    rices of essential commodities, causing an
    inflationary situation and at the same time pushing up production costs, as it happened in 1970s in the
    US. The other reason is failure of the monetary authority to control excessive growth of money supply in
    the economy and excessive regulation of goods and labour markets by the government. For example, in
    the 1970s, a similar situation occurred during the global stagflation, where it began with a huge rise in
    oil prices, but then continued as central banks used simulative monetary policy to counteract the
    resulting recession, causing a runaway wage
    wage-price spiral.

    Is India on the brink of stagflation?


    Though the central bank and the Centre have had to revise their growth targets, which have taken a hit
    due to persistently high double-digitdigit inflation, economists are far from assuming a stagflation like
    situation in India just as yet. The Reserve Bank of India deputy governor Subir Gokarn has said headline
    inflation numbers are much higher than the appropriate rate of inflation that will moderate growth but
    will keep it steady, which according to RBI's estimates, should be between 5% and 6%.

    At the latest policy meeting on 16 September, the Reserve Bank again hiked rates by another 25 basis
    points with the goal of licking
    king inflation. But the RBI ought to realize that at some point high interest
    rates will lead to high inflation. Also the time has come for the Indian government to take some action
    as the RBI alone cannot solve the multi
    multi-year, fiscal deficit-triggered problem
    blem of inflation.
    Economic and Social Environment

    High inflation and a slowdown create a vicious stagflationary circle that's difficult to break. Corporate
    are already complaining that the continued increase in interest rates is slowing growth. Slow growth
    negatively affects the supply of goods and services. This in turn pushes the prices up, leaving inflation
    stubbornly high.

    In India the interest rates of savings have dramatically gone up over the past several months. This by
    itself increases money supply by putting more cash in the hands of individuals increasing demand for
    goods and services, which pushes up prices. In a scenario where output of goods and services slow
    down, higher demand only increases inflation.

    For ages RBI has been trying achieve price stability by targeting demand. It does this by manipulating
    money supply. Hence to increase demand it reduces interest rates and increases money supply.

    References

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unemployment-rates-list-by-country
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2011/08/26/stagflation-is-knocking-on-the-door/
    http://faculty-web.at.northwestern.edu/economics/gordon/ARNfull.pdf
    http://www.indianexpress.com/news/cut-policy-rates-to-reduce-inflation-basu/849484/0
    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/p-v-
    ndiresan/article2479811.ece?homepage=true

    You might also like